Now we can address our "speed" problem

[brewtank34]

At the beginning of the Hot Stove League, Melvin came out publically and stated that his two main objectives this offseason were to address the starting pitching rotation and the need for speed in our line-up. Well, we just addressed our SP with getting Suppan, now Melvin can go out and get some speed. I really see Jenkins, Capellan and Zach Jackson going to Tampa Bay for Baldelli.

Whether or not it'sBaldelli, I guarentee that DM is not done yet. If we don't address our speed problem by spring training, the brewers are going to have a REALLY big problem of scoring runs. I say this because we have no one to protect Fielder. If we have speed, the need for a power bat goes WAY down. And the brewers can save money in doing so.

[strawbossisevil]

Do we really have a "speed" problem? Hart is fast, Weeks is capable of 20-30 steals, Hall could probably have 15-20.

 

Also, that package would not net us a Baldelli or Crawford. We'd have to give up Gallardo in such a deal. (I really doubt that they would want Jenkins either, since they are looking to trade away their OF depth, not add to it).

 

Speed is perhaps one of the most overrated offensive statistics, and it doesn't change the need for a powerful lineup.

[Brian the Automator]

[ If we don't address our speed problem by spring training, the brewers are going to have a REALLY big problem of scoring runs. ]

 

The only speed problem that needs to be addressed, in my opinion, is working on smart base running. I'm not going to beat a dead horse here, but there's not speed issue that a little OBP can't cure.

[brewtank34]

I'm sorry, but I don't want Hart, Weeks or Hall leading off. All three of those players are more suited for deeper spots in the line-up.

[Oldcity]

I'd be just fine with Hart, Weeks or Gross leading off.

[brewtank34]

Hart is a 5 to 7

Weeks is best suited in the six hole

Hall is best suited in the 2 to 5 hole

 

Weeks strikes out too much to lead off as does Hall and Hart, well, I guess I'd have to believe it to see it first before actually agreeing that he'd be a good leadoff candidate.

 

The main point that you are missing so far is that Melvin came out publically and addressed that the Brewers front office believes that one of the main things that was hampering the Crew last season was that we had NO speed to generate runs and that this was going to be one of the MAIN offseason goals to address.

Weeks did a good job, don't get me wrong- he was in the running for a good RUNS total by the end of the year if he didn't get hurt. I just would rather see him down in the line-up a bit.

[wallus]

We DID already address our "speed" problem. Estrada is faster than Miller, Suppan is faster than DD and Counsell is faster than Cirillo. Not to mention that we will have Corey Hart as a starter.. I don't see a problem here.

[joshjs]

Isn't Rickey Henderson available?

[Dollarbill13]

I'm sure it's about the 37 millionth time it's been said, but isn't leadoff the one spot where strikeouts would matter less than "productive outs" seeing as there is often no one on base?

[strawbossisevil]

Weeks strikes out too much for the leadoff spot? Isn't the point of a leadoff hitter to just get onbase? Weeks got onbase 36% of the time. Gross got on 38% of the time. Strikeouts don't matter when it comes to leadoff hitters (because a flyout or a groundout made with the bases empty has the same impact as a strikeout does), its all about getting onbase, and both of these players do a solid job at doing that.

 

Speed doesn't generate runs, having players on base a lot and having people to slug them in is the best recipe for creating runs.

[brewtank34]

Oh yeah, that's right. Brian Roberts didn't help out the Padres last year at all with his speed. They had sooo many other options.

All I'm saying is that I'd prefer a legitimate leadoff hitter rather that waste Weeks' talents.

[Dollarbill13]

We hear legitimate/prototypical leadoff hitter used a lot. I think its usually said to describe someone who not only gets on base but can also steal bases as well... Weeks fits both categories. But because he has some power, we should hit him somewhere else in the lineup. If I'm not mistaken, the Yankees won a couple world series with Soriano hitting leadoff. I also have a hard time believing the argument that Weeks hit with less power last year because he was hitting leadoff. I highly doubt he was actually going to the plate, not trying to hit the ball hard.

[strawbossisevil]

If speed is such a huge issue, how come the World Champian St. Louis Cardinals had a leadoff hitter who had only 7 SB (6 CS) on the season? In fact they didn't even have a single player reach a dozen SB on the season! They did so well because they had guys who got on base and they let the middle of their order slug those players around.

 

How come speed is such a huge need for us again? Because there doesn't appear to be a huge correlation between team speed and team sucess.

[AJ Love]

Regardless of whether we the fans think speed is a need or not, Melvin coming right out and saying so is telling. It would seem that the Brewers would love to have prototypical very fast base stealing good fielding CF (moving Hall to LF) or a Carl Crawford type in LF... I agree that it likely we'll see Melvin make a trade for such a player before Spring Training.

 

Personally, I'm fine with Weeks leading off and Hardy batting 2nd

[brettac1]

I'd rather have Weeks leadoff, Gross in CF and hitting second, Hall at SS, and Hardy on the bench or in AAA, personally. I have doubts about Hardy's ability to get on base, so I don't think he should hit second.

[JohnBriggs12]

The problem isn't really lack of speed but an unbalanced lineup full of guys who are best suited to hit 5th through 7th.

 

Weeks gets on enough to hit leadoff, but his talent isn't fully utilized trying to draw walks. Weeks has 30/30 ability. Batting leadoff, his power output is reduced by his taking pitches he could regularly drive early in counts if he's not so conscious of working counts.. Weeks also is one of the few with the potential to be a number 3 hitter, which may be a bigger hole than leadoff in the Brewer lineup.

[strawbossisevil]

Top 10 SB Teams:

Angels - 89-73

Mets - 97-65

Yankees - 97-65

Devil Rays - 61-101

Dodgers - 88-74

Reds - 80-82

Nationals - 71-91

Padres - 88-74

Cubs - 66-96

Orioles - 70-92

807 - 813

.498 Winning Percentage

 

Bottom 10 SB Teams:

Red Sox - 86-76

Braves - 79-83

Rangers - 80-82

Indians - 78-84

Giants - 76-85

Cardinals- 83-78

As- 93-69

Blue Jays- 87-75

Royals -62-100

Pirates- 67-95

791 - 827

.488 Winning Percentage

 

Summary: A team needs balance. Teams in the middle of the pack had a .500+ winning percentage. That said you can find sucessful teams in both extremes. The Brewers were in the middle of the pack last season, and with a healthy Weeks, they will probably land there again.

[Ennder]

Hall was one of the worst baserunners in baseball last year, so not sure I think his speed is a huge advantage on the basepaths.

[strawbossisevil]

Hall had 18 SB in 2005, unless he's suddenly become an awful baserunner or lost a lot of his speed, I don't understand why he couldn't do that again. (and yes his 2006 numbers look pretty abysmal).

[rluzinski]

Summary: A team needs balance.

 

Correlating steals to winning percentage doesn't prove anything, IMO. I mean, teams with more base runners are going to generally have more steal opportunities to begin with. Also, pitching plays a huge part of winning % and you are completely ignoring it.

 

I've just never seen any proof that a balanced offense scores more runs than one that "just" gets on base and hits for power. Run estimators can pretty much ignore steals without losing much accuracy. Speed is a nice thing to have but not at the expense of getting on base or power.

[hauser42]

I don't think gettin a prototype leadoff hitter is going to cure the lineup.

 

These guys need to develop a better batting eyes so they can get some walks and see better pitches. They just need to run the bases correctly, like going from 1st - 3rd and tagging from second to get to third on a fly out to right. Little things will make them a much better team.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Weeks strikes out too much to lead off as does Hall and Hart, well, I guess I'd have to believe it to see it first before actually agreeing that he'd be a good leadoff candidate. ]

 

I guess I don't see the problem with a leadoff guy who strikes out more often, given he carries a high OBP. It's not like the leadoff guy needs to be worried about productive outs more than anyone else.

 

[ main point that you are missing so far is that Melvin came out publically and addressed that the Brewers front office believes that one of the main things that was hampering the Crew last season was that we had NO speed to generate runs and that this was going to be one of the MAIN offseason goals to address. ]

 

Melvin may think its a problem, but I don't. The only speed problem in my mind last year was that some players actually thought they could swipe bases, and they couldn't. Unless you have a Rickey Henderson-type who is untouchable on the basepaths, the CS to SB ratio usually works out where the total number of SB's are overblown.

 

[ Weeks did a good job, don't get me wrong- he was in the running for a good RUNS total by the end of the year if he didn't get hurt. I just would rather see him down in the line-up a bit. ]

 

I guess I'm cool with Rickie Weeks leading off until he develops a little more pop. The move to the leadoff spot last year actually improved his numbers a bit, including areas of plate discipline (.360 OBP at #1 vs. .339 at #6). Small sample size warning, of course, though.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I would love a Hall or Capuano for Crawford trade. We have lost the way we have played for years. Put Weeks and Crawford up top and this team would score some runs and those 2 guys on the basepaths would be fun to watch. Let's say its Hall.

 

 

Weeks

Crawford

Jenkins (UGH)

Fielder

Koskie

Hart

Estrada

Hardy

 

Couldn't we live with that lineup and starting staff?

[UWRyan428]

The problem with THAT lineup is that you have three lefties 3-4-5 which Ned tends to preach against. But you are correct in that Hall for Crawford, if CC can play a good CF, would inject some speed and energy onto the basepaths. Though, my lineup would be....

 

CF Crawford

SS Hardy

2B Weeks

1B Fielder

RF Hart

LF Jenks/Mench

C Estrada/Miller

3B Koskie

 

I don't like having Koskie so low, as he is a less than ideal #8 hitter, but he would be good at clearing the basepaths prior to the dark hole in the order.

[dhoffman19]

Strikeouts don't matter when it comes to leadoff hitters (because a flyout or a groundout made with the bases empty has the same impact as a strikeout does), its all about getting onbase,

 

That's only true if you assume that if a batter stuck out less, the extra balls in play would also be outs. For example, if Weeks had struck out 30 fewer times and put the ball in play in those at-bats, you're assuming they all would have been outs. But at least some of them would be hits. I agree that OBP is the most important thing for a leadoff man, but putting the ball in play (and walking) is the way to get the higher OBP.

 

Also, the "bases empty" assumption only applies to the first at-bat of the game. Then again, I guess it also applied on the days last year where Moeller and Sheets were batting 8 and 9.