Can the Escobar rumors stop now?

[logan82]

Even if Escobar can develop into the player Hardy is now, he isn't there yet.

[TheCrew07]

Even if Escobar can develop into the player Hardy is now, he isn't there yet.

What does that have to do with his prospect status? If we're talking the actual production on the field then the drop off from the 2009 Hardy to the 2009 Escobar is much less than people thought it would originally be, and with a 3 WAR pitcher it's not even close. Escobar and the pitcher would blow Hardy and Parra's production away. I just don't think that getting a 3 WAR pitcher with some longevity in season is likely.

 

It's really strange around here, with the first wave of prospects all we talked about was what they could do, with this second wave, and it doesn't matter if it's Gamel, Escobar, Green, Cain, Salome, or Lucroy... there's a rather vocal segment of the population that only wants to talk about what they don't do, and in some cases spread misinformation about them. For example where is Escobar's horrible season at the plate that so many predicted for him based on flawed BABIP regression analysis? Analysis that was continually spun back around even though many of us continually pointed out that we aren't able to apply sabermetric analysis to prospects in the same way as we would established MLB players. Ya he's not hitting HRs.. big deal and so what? He has double digit HR power now as he hit 9 in AA last season, and if he quits playing winter ball and gets his butt in the weight room he could develop more power. Will he? I have no idea.. but he's as exciting a prospect as we've had come through the system, his upside is much greater than that of Hardy.

 

Escobar is truly a case of people only seeing what they want to see in a stat line without considering the immense physical talent a player also possesses.

 

The simple truth is that Gamel and Escobar aren't going anywhere because no one is going to offer up a deal good enough to pry them away. It's continually been in print since the Sabathia trade last season and yet people are so unwilling to look even a couple of seasons ahead that there always suggestions to move our best prospects for Rental players. I've been around this site long enough that I remember people suggesting trades including every single one of our current core of players. Where would this team be without Braun, Gallardo, and Fielder? I'm a huge Hardy fan, he's the only current Brewer of which I have any memorabelia, but his days as a Brewer are numbered. It's also been reported multiple times that Hardy is unwilling to switch positions, that Hardy hasn't approached the team about a deal, and that the team hasn't approached Hardy about a deal either... as they say the writing is on the wall.

[Hate those Rodents]

I would like to regularly trade with any GM that thinks Hardy was by far our best player last year. That had to have been a joke...

[kramnoj]

If you want to understand why people are saying Hardy was the best Brewer last year, you can see the supporting evidence here: http://www.fangraphs.com/...pe=6&season=2008&month=0

 

Hardy was the best Brewer last year because he plays a position where offense is lower, and he plays it well. Best player means more than best hitter.

[logan82]

It's really strange around here, with the first wave of prospects all we talked about was what they could do

 

Whjy is that surprising? We had a crappy team and the prospects could come in and easily replace the poor performance we were getting from the then current MLB players.

[Hate those Rodents]

The fact Cameron was the second most valuable last year tells me how accurate that sight is. Again, I hope Doug has memorized the cell phone number of any GM that thinks Hardy is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

[kramnoj]

The fact Cameron was the second most valuable last year tells me how accurate that sight is

 

That's not much of a response. What specifically do you disagree with? How would you support the claim that Fielder was better than either Hardy or Cameron last year?

[Hate those Rodents]

I don't think I need to respond to that. The link says Hardy was #1 last year and Cameron was #2. I will just go with that,

[TheCrew07]

I don't think I need to respond to that. The link says Hardy was #1 last year and Cameron was #2. I will just go with that,

The question is actually, what don't you understand about the link? The link takes total production (offensive + defensive) into account, then looks at the average value for the position (all players at the position in the league), then the total production of a player like Hardy is compared to the league average (minus a percentage to arrive at "replacement level), to come up with a win value for each player. Was Braun more valuable than Hardy production wise in 2008? Absolutely. Was Braun worth more wins than Hardy was? No. This is because all LFs tend to be productive offensive players, in a WAR metric Braun isn't competing against Hardy or Cameron, he's competing against all of the other LFs in the league. Hardy is having his value calculated against all SS, Cameron against all CFs... and SS and CF tend to be very weak offensive positions.

 

Does that make sense?

[Hate those Rodents]

I get the jist of what your saying. Obviously, I happen to feel that a worse fielding CF that hits better than Cam would not yield us more losses. Pretty much the same for JJ. I should probably quit posting in this thread, but I happen to feel JJ is overrated and should have been dealt for a #2 starter. I think Escobar will be able to replace him easily. Maybe he'll be our MVP on that link next year, along with whomever we have play CF. Corey Hart would have been atop that links list had he played CF all of last year, correct?

[kramnoj]

Corey Hart would have been atop that links list had he played CF all of last year, correct?

 

That's not correct. By my guess, he would be under 2.0, so behind Weeks, and maybe even lower than that, when comparing his subpar defense last year to the defense of CFers.

 

I should probably quit posting in this thread, but I happen to feel JJ is overrated and should have been dealt for a #2 starter.

 

Nobody is asking you to stop posting. But if you say something is a joke, it would be decent to actually support your statement. As far as trading for a #2 starter, it takes two to trade. It's easy for fans to just say that something should happen, but what team had a good young starter that they were going to give up for 2 years of Hardy?

[logan82]

Hardy and Cameron also played good defense in comparison to their peers at the same position at defensive premium positions. An average SS is something like 1.5 wins more valuable than a comparable defensive LF.

[mkm13]

TheCrew/endaround, I am sure the issue he has with it is how you worded it. I believe endaround said something like "JJ Hardy was the best player on the team last year, and it wasn't even close". I do not agree with that either. It should be, "Relative to his position, JJ Hardy was the most valuable player on the team last year". I am a big stats guy so I love the fact you are using them, but you have to make sure you know they they mean. This isn't the 1st time I told you that either.

For example, lets say next year JJ Hardy performs at the same level as he did in 2008 (offensively), but he got moved to 3rd base to make room for Escobar. His "win values" would be lower but would that make him a worse player? No. He wouldn't be as valuable, but he shouldn't be considered worse. Lets say next year Cameron is gone and Braun moves to center (Braun has the speed and arm to possibly play center so it is not out of the question that he could). He would then likely have more win values (assuming wasn't terrible in center). Would that make Braun a "better player"? No. But it would just make him more valuable because he is playing at a more difficult defenisve position.

[TheCrew07]

Err? I didn't say Hardy was the most valuable Brewer, I tried to explain WAR to Hate those Rodents because it appeared to me as it did to you that the "relative to his position" argument had slipped past.

 

I did however use WAR in my post, as I typically do when trying to compare trade values and what not because it's readily available and is a decent composite metric.

[brewjihad]

I still don't think this thread totally understands the WAR concept. In reality, we are saying that Hardy was much more valuable than Fielder and about 2 wins more valuable than Braun last year. The wins can be compared from player to player. Braun and Fielder both contributed about 10 more runs hitting-wise than Hardy, but Hardy has the edge by about 25 runs on defense-- +8 compared to an average SS and 6 because short is tougher to play than left or first. Braun and Fielder both had negative defensive value because they were below average at their position and their positions were easier than shortstop.

 

The "hitting runs" is in fact not being compared to position. It's compared to league average, all using wOBA, league average wOBA is .333.

 

Hardy was more valuable than Braun or Fielder last year, and it wasn't particularly close. That's the beauty of WAR-- putting it into runs and wins means you can compare players across positions to decide who was better.

[mkm13]

I really wasn't meaning that you said it I was just trying to explain why people were having a problem with what endaround initially said. I appreciate that endaround is a big stats guy, but he sometimes loses track of what the stat really means (or atleast it appears that way based on how he says things). The fact is, JJ Hardy was likely not the the BEST player on the team last year (at least not by far), but he was the most valuable relative to the position he played last year.

 

I am actually a huge JJ fan and if we do get rid of him I hope it is for a significant amount. I think he is very valuable. I would also much rather get rid of Fielder (I do not think he is nearly as valuable as most people despite his great offense). I just didn't like the way endaround worded his comments, because they didn't really represent what those statistics are showing.

[kramnoj]

It should be, "Relative to his position, JJ Hardy was the most valuable player on the team last year". I am a big stats guy so I love the fact you are using them, but you have to make sure you know they they mean. This isn't the 1st time I told you that either.

 

I think value should incorporate the salary of the player compared to their contribution. Therefore, to say that a player is the most valuable, compensation needs to be included. If you aren't taking that into consideration, it certainly makes sense that the player that has the most WAR is the best. If not, how would you determine who was the best player on a team in any given year.

 

To tie this into the Escobar theme, it's highly likely that Hardy will be a better player than Escobar next year. But I think it's likely that Escobar would be more valuable than Hardy next year.

[Hate those Rodents]

Good posts guys. I don;t mean to get in an arguement here. I truthfully am not a huge stats guy. Just the basics thrown on the tv screen for me. I just basically watch every game and come up with an idea of how much value I see in the guy. JJ is a good player. Maybe top five on our team. I just happen to feel he's overrated and don't agree with an assessment saying he's our most valuable. I easily can be wrong and obviously there are stats to back that up. Hopefully at some point, this Escobar/Hardy thing will get solved one way or another.

[brewjihad]

I do not agree with that either. It should be, "Relative to his position, JJ Hardy was the most valuable player on the team last year". I am a big stats guy so I love the fact you are using them, but you have to make sure you know they they mean. This isn't the 1st time I told you that either.

 

I see where the argument is here. Playing Prince Fielder in centerfield and Braun on the mound would not make them worse at baseball, but they would be less valuable. In the same way, WAR depends on playing time. There are factors out of the control of the player. A player could be better than another and get injured and be less valuable.

 

In the end, though, if you're going to determine value, you need to look at the position the player is capable of playing. Hardy played short 8 runs above average, and gets a 6 run bonus for playing there. In theory if he played third he would be higher above the average with a smaller positional bonus.

 

I want to clear up the idea that we're just comparing him to shortstops, though. It's a metric that is totally unbiased. Hardy was worth more runs above a replacement player than Fielder or Braun were last year, and that makes him more valuable. You don't need the "relative to his position" clause in the sentence above.

[mkm13]

I agree salary should be taken into account. Also, just to clarify my stance I believe JJ was probably the 2nd best player last year behind Braun. I feel Braun is better defenisvely than some of the numbers indicate. IMO playing next to a stud center fielder defensively will result in you getting a few less balls that other left fielders would get (some balls hit int he gap).

[TheCrew07]

I stand corrected, thanks brewjihad!

[mkm13]

How do we know JJ would be higher above average at 3rd? Also, there are so many defenisve shifts and other factors defensively that I just do not have a lot of confidence in them to be as accurate as some people are saying (for example you said 8 runs better than average - how in the world can you be this accurate with all of the variables at play?). Maybe someone can prove me otherwise, but how do these defensive numbers account for all of the defensive shifts (I believe the brewers used shifts more than other teams last year). For outfielders, how do these numbers account for playing next to a stud center fielder who covers tons of ground (Braun playing next to Cameron). How do the defensive numbers account for different pitchers for each team?

[PeaveyFury]

It's really strange around here, with the first wave of prospects all we talked about was what they could do

 

I assure you, when Weeks, Fielder, and Braun came through the minors, their huge defensive issues were discussed VERY regularly...

[logan82]

Look at several different defensive measures. None that I know of properly account for shifts. I look at both UZR and Dewan's plus/minus. I don't think Dewan's shows up until after the season and I doubt UZR is useful until near the end of the season so we kind of have to go off of how the fielder was in previous years.

 

Bill James has a defensive misplays section in Dewan's Fielding Bible and Braun had the 5th most defensive misplays with 25. Those are not affected by Cameron covering a lot of ground in CF. Soriano is 3rd with 29.

[TheCrew07]

It's really strange around here, with the first wave of prospects all we talked about was what they could do

 

I assure you, when Weeks, Fielder, and Braun came through the minors, their huge defensive issues were discussed VERY regularly...

No kidding... I was here, I had over 1000 posts under a different user name (Wytlaf Tacytus), but the focus was on their offensive prowess, not their defensive deficiencies. Weeks was making errors left and right in 2005 and the overwhelming majority wanted him called up anyway and Spivey traded.

 

I'll just say it straight, the way I see it. People have become attached to our current core and nitpick anything they can find with this second crop trying to delay the inevitable... like it or not this first core of players wasn't signed long-term and is moving on. Gamel has hit every bit as well as Braun/Fielder/Weeks at AAA, he out hit Fielder and Weeks at AA, and yet in the last 2 days he's been referred to on this site as a second tier prospect? That's not based on anything factual other than personal bias.

 

If one would even take 20 minutes to go over the trends in Escobar's career on any of the usual stat sites one could clearly see he's a player on the rise... if one would take 30 minutes more and read about the kid on the Minor League forum one could find out why he was so raw offensively to begin his career. He the best SS in MiLB, the best SS prospect in all of baseball, and he's trashed around here like he's some light hitting scrub who swings a newspaper at the baseball. He already has 23 doubles on the season, that's 1 less than he had all of last season. "He'll be alright when he develops gap power"... sorry folks, he's already there. "He doesn't walk enough"... how many players on this team do? He's improving and will continue to get better with age. "He won't hit as many HRs"... well you got me, he's not going to hit 20+ HR this season or next season so he sucks...

 

I've been trying to make the point for well over a year that the discussion about what's best for the Brewers revolves around the current/future production of the MLB player + draft picks vs. the replacement player + parts returned from a trade. Every time Hardy being moved is discussed it's the same tired arguments from people who I don't feel adequately understand what some of us have been trying to say. Trading Hardy is as simple as this.... Hardy's value would be equal to Hardy's remaining 2008 production + 2009 production. In order for a trade to be better for the Brewers than Hardy being on the team the Escobar package just needs to have higher value than Hardy's total value. If we split the difference between Hardy's 2007 and 2008 WAR his yearly WAR is around 4.7. Half of that value for the remainder of this year is 2.35, then we add 4.7 war back and Hardy will be a 7.1 WAR player over the rest of his Brewer career. Obviously if he continues to tank his value goes down, nor do I think Hardy will be 4.7 WAR player this season but I'm trying to be as fair as possible.

 

For the sake of argument I'll say that Escobar is will be half as valuable over the remainder of the Hardy's contract and I believe I'm erroring on the side of caution here. Escobar would be worth 3.5 WAR, so to be more valuable than Hardy's production the piece aquired in a trade would only have to be slightly better than Parra was last season (2.4 WAR) to make the trade a net gain for the Brewers. That 2.4 over a season and a half is obviously 3.6 WAR, which would exactly equal Hardy's value above. This is specifically why I've called for a trade to acquire talent of Parra's level or better. Escobar + 2.5 WAR pitcher is more valuable than Hardy alone. I routinely throw out a 3 war pitcher to again err on the side of caution. Parra has a .2 WAR this season, McClung -.6, Burns exactly 0... so essentially the current production in the rotation is neglible for the sake of this dicussion as all the pitchers we'd replace are performing at a replacement level.

 

I realize I'm leaving off the draft picks we'd get from letting Hardy walk because the value of draft picks vs MLB production is basically impossbile to accurately debate. In the future I'm alright letting players walk for picks but at this moment in time I feel that top of the rotation talent is a more immediate need than infusing the lower levels of the system with more talent.

 

As far as the Hardy/Escobar debate I'm not sure I can make it anymore simple than I did above. I highly doubt DM is going to find a long-term rotation solution during this season, so the best case for this season is probably keeping Hardy and trying to find a type A rental based on depth... If it's not Bedard then I'm not sure whom it would be, it has to be a team willing to take a deal centered around Salome/Lucroy + which eliminates Baltimore and Atlanta and 2 of the pitchers I'd like the Brewers to acquire.

 

Who is this team going to beat in the playoffs with it's current rotation? How does adding a bat move the Brewers closer to the World Series? It's not so much about winning games, as it is winning games to what end? Look ahead to the playoffs, how do we get out of the first round with our current rotation? Heaven forbid something crazy happens to Yo again, then what? Is 1 bat going to make the difference for this team?