Can the Escobar rumors stop now?

[TheCrew07]

A bare market for Melvin

By Anthony Witrado

 

But that could be a challenge since Melvin has already deemed Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar as untouchable. So to pull off a deal and keep the organization's two best prospects, a big-league player would probably have to be involved.

This is the 3rd or 4th time this has been in print. At some point people are going to have to accept that Hardy will be one to go if someone gets moved. Melvin also said;

"I've always said you're a little more motivated (to make a deal) when you're doing better," Melvin said. "We'll only do something if it makes sense. We're not going to make a deal to make a deal."

Does it make sense to give up 5 players for Harden? To try to trade for a bat before trading for an arm? What's the position of greatest need? The Indians wanted pitching for Derosa, the price only goes up for Lee... Whether you care about building for the future or not, what's the sense in sending 2 or more of our best pitching prospects for 1.5 years of Lee, when we don't have any top of the rotation SP at AA or better to start with? Not to mention our highest rated pitcher is 1 step from done for life and regressed this season anyway. I still hope Braddock is a rotation solution down the road, but he's currently a RP.

 

The organization's strength is currently in it's position players, why wouldn't we deal from a position of strength to acquire a position need? Where's the sense in trading from an area where the team is already shorthanded to fill a position of need? Where's the net gain in that scenario?

 

It's not hard to look 2 years ahead and see that Bush, Looper, and Suppan will be gone... and Parra's not a lock to turn his career around at this point. That's 3 spots that will certainly have to be filled, and maybe a 4th. Where are the pitchers going to come from? Free agency? Scrap heap pickups?

 

Of all the names tossed around, if you sit down and consider all of the variables the 3 that make the most sense given the Brewer's current situation are Bedard, Guthrie, and maybe Vasquez. Honestly though, Bedard sort of scares me, he's frail... Baltimore has lots of young pitching on the way so they might be interested in some position players, but not a spare C as they already have Wieters. Atlanta already has McCann and Escobar, they don't really match up well either. Toronto would have been excellent fit but Marcum and McGowan had to go and get hurt...

 

I just don't see many teams that match up well if at all.

[logan82]

It's natural that Escobar and Gamel come up in trade talk. Just like it was Sheets coming up in trade talk most of the last 4 years he was with us.(excluding last year of course) They are not regular contributors on the MLB club. Most Brewers fans know that they are not going anywhere unless a can't pass up trade comes, but that is unlikely to happen. I am sure fans of other teams are thinking the same thing about some of their players who are getting mentioned in trade rumors.

[dadofandrew]

A few years ago, Escobar would have been like losing Prince, Braun, Weeks, and so on. Doug knows he can't trade 6+ years of mostly cheap production for a half season or 1.5 years of a player.

 

Laporta was limited to 1B/LF, and maybe below average defense in RF, and the Crew had guys in those spots. CC was also a CY Young winner, who is only available once a decade or so. It was a perfect storm, certainly not one that comes along every year.

 

Escobar, Gamel, and Lawrie are all probably untouchable. I'd say Cain might be the best player available, or Salome, in an overwhelmingly big deal.

[lcbj68c]

Does it make sense to give up 5 players for Harden?

I don't think we're wheeling and dealing with the Cubs. Although cheap 4yrs/$9M, I don't want to give the Cubs 5 of our prospects for Rich Harden.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

As a Cubs fan, if the Cubs were hypothetically out of it by the deadline, how would you feel about Rich Harden straight up for JJ Hardy, as long as they feel confident enough with Escobar? I doub that the Cubs re sign Harden next year, and Id love Hardy at SS and slide Theriot back to 2nd.

 

Granted, Harden would be a rent a player for the Brewers, and I believe Hardy is arb eligible and could haunt the you for the next few years, but lets face it, if the Brewers were to make the playoffs with their current rotation, I dont see them getting far.

[jjfanec]

As a Cubs fan, if the Cubs were hypothetically out of it by the deadline, how would you feel about Rich Harden straight up for JJ Hardy, as long as they feel confident enough with Escobar? I doub that the Cubs re sign Harden next year, and Id love Hardy at SS and slide Theriot back to 2nd.

 

Granted, Harden would be a rent a player for the Brewers, and I believe Hardy is arb eligible and could haunt the you for the next few years, but lets face it, if the Brewers were to make the playoffs with their current rotation, I dont see them getting far.

Hardy will be traded for someone that will be here long term not a rental in my mind. The Brewers need rotation help but if they deal Hardy it will be for a guy who will help the next couple years.

[Hate those Rodents]

Nah, we'll just give you McGehee for Harden. JK. McGehee's value has gotta be getting up there though when you consider his contract and how long he's under his team's control.

[PeaveyFury]

A few years ago, Escobar would have been like losing Prince, Braun, Weeks, and so on.

 

Escobar hasn't had even a FRACTION of the success in the minors as Prince, Braun, or Weeks.

[Hate those Rodents]

The above also don't have a fraction of the defensive ability as Escobar. And he's hardly not hitting. He might not have a perennial all-star bat, but I think he'll match Hardy's one or two for his career. Escobar is a shade of a lesser prospect than Braun/Fielder/Weeks. Probably right with his cohorts Gamel and LaPorta and a shade better than Hardy.

[PeaveyFury]

It's not that I don't think Escobar is a good prospect since he is, it's just that I think mentioning him in the same breath as Braun and Fielder is practically criminal.

[BrewCrewForever]

I actually do believe Doug that Escobar and Gamel are untouchable. And like Al said Lawrie would also seem to be in that group. I am totally okay with dealing Cain or Salome. Salome especially since we also have LuCroy in the system at catcher. If we have to trade a shortstop I would much rather move Hardy then Escobar.

[endaround]

The above also don't have a fraction of the defensive ability as Escobar. And he's hardly not hitting. He might not have a perennial all-star bat, but I think he'll match Hardy's one or two for his career. Escobar is a shade of a lesser prospect than Braun/Fielder/Weeks. Probably right with his cohorts Gamel and LaPorta and a shade better than Hardy.

 

Can we stop this meme that Hardy did nothing in the minors? Hardy hit better than Escobar despite being younger at every level

[paulmolitor4]

I'm fully convinced Hardy has already plateaued as a hitter. His swing is not very good (hand position is too low and he wraps his bat when he starts his swing). I used to be okay with his swing, but the more I watch him, the more I can't stand to watch him. He has to have his timing down perfectly to be successful, which is why I think he is prone to such hot and cold streaks. Remember Jenkins: not the same issues with his swing, but he he also had to have his timing down perfectly. I believe Hardy will never be a consistent hitter unless he makes some adjustments, and he doesn't strike me as the type to make many adjustments. In fact, he seems to be awfully stubborn if you consider his unwillingness to play anywhere but shortstop.

 

I know that was a long rant on Hardy, but the long story short: trade Hardy for pitching while he has decent value, and bring Escobar up. Hardy is not really all that much to replace... at least as far as making a difference in wins and losses compared to Escobar playing shortstop everyday with Counsell spelling him occasionally. I guess I can live somewhat with Escobar struggling offensively, but I can no longer live with Hardy struggling offensively. Melvin needs to man up and trade Hardy and a couple second-tier prospects for a solid starting pitcher (and yes preferably somebody we control for a couple of years or more).

[dadofandrew]

Escobar has been raved about defensively for years. He gets on base well for a SS, and has always been young for his age. The only reason he is not the best prospect to come along in the last decade is because they've had other phenoms also.

[The Truth]

I think most Brewers fans overestimate Hardy's trade value. He alone or with 2nd tier prospects won't bring in a 1st rate pitcher. We'd need to include a very good prospect or two. Every GM in MLB knows how much of a streaky hitter and slow runner JJ is, not to mention his injury prone past. Even though JJ actually played in an All-Star game once, he is no All-Star (in my opinion).

 

JJ has a great throwing arm but somewhat limited range out of what you'd expect from supposedly one of the top fielding SS's in the game. He can turn around a fast ball in a hurry, but every pitcher in MLB knows that now, and JJ isn't adjusting. Untill he works out the kinks in his swing he'll always be streaky at the plate

[endaround]

Hardy was the Brewers best player last year and it wasn't even really close. No he won't bring a #1 pitcher back because no one trading for Hardy is going to be rebuilding. since Hardy only has 1 year remaining/

[JohnBriggs12]

A few years ago, Escobar would have been like losing Prince, Braun, Weeks, and so on.

 

Escobar hasn't had even a FRACTION of the success in the minors as Prince, Braun, or Weeks.

But he has had as much if not more than either Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez and those are the guys he should be compared to.

[BrewCrewForever]

Escobar has been raved about defensively for years. He gets on base well for a SS, and has always been young for his age. The only reason he is not the best prospect to come along in the last decade is because they've had other phenoms also.

Al don't forget he has fantastic speed. If he works at the craft he could steal a lot of bases with that kind of speed. When they finally do bring him up I would like to see him hit leadoff at some point.

[paulmolitor4]

Hardy was the Brewers best player last year and it wasn't even really close. No he won't bring a #1 pitcher back because no one trading for Hardy is going to be rebuilding. since Hardy only has 1 year remaining/

Best player? Really? I guess it depends on how you want to quantify best player. I'm not buying though. I think losing Braun or Fielder last year would have hurt the Brewers far more than losing Hardy.

 

Also I'd settle for a solid #2 or #3 pitcher, which we don't seem to have right now. I really liked the Buchholz idea, but I'm sure that's no longer an option. I think the Red Sox have probably moved passed their flirtation with picking up Hardy.

[Never Outhustled]

But he has had as much if not more than either Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez and those are the guys he should be compared to.

No he didn't, and both those guys were in the majors at the age Escobar is now. Ramirez had an 833 OPS in the majors as a 22 year old. Reyes had a higher OPS in the majors as a 20 year old than Escobar had in A+ at that age. Escobars present MLEs are under 700.

 

He a good prospect. but not at the level of those guys, especially Ramirez. Reyes and Ramirez don't compare either.

 

 

Best player? Really? I guess it depends on how you want to quantify best player. I'm not buying though. I think losing Braun or Fielder last year would have hurt the Brewers far more than losing Hardy

Yup. Fielder wasn't even valuable last year. Hardy had the highest win values on the team. Sheets was ahead of those other guys too.

[paulmolitor4]

Win values... don't really care about them. They might have statistical significance, but not so much practical significance. No statistic can account for all the intricacies of the game of baseball, and trust me I love stats as much as the next guy. I still believe the Brewers would have lost more games without Fielder than they would have without Hardy, and I'm sure there a lot of people that would feel the same way.

[Never Outhustled]

I still believe the Brewers would have lost more games without Fielder than they would have without Hardy, and I'm sure there a lot of people that would feel the same way.

Not based on the way they played last year. This year, Fielder has been awesome at the plate, and defending much, much better. Hardy hasn't gotten hot yet, though it looks like its starting.

 

Streakiness is not a weakness, as long as the end of year results are there. It all evens out over 162 games. The only players that aren't streaky are the awesome ones and the terrible ones.

[endaround]

Even Pujols is streaky. He just tends to vary between All Time Great and Unbelievable. Last year his OPS by month:1.117, 1.160, 1.003, .978, 1.236, 1.130.

[Postseason2006]

By one year? And the stats aren't exactly a landslide like some of you like to portray.

I'll also throw in the mix Escobar's stats this year where he now has 23 doubles, 5 triples, 3 homers, and 27 SB's with a batting average over .300 something Hardy has not done.

[TheCrew07]

In the original post I meant Haren, not Harden, that was a fat finger that I didn't catch and just happened to be another player's name.

 

A few years ago, Escobar would have been like losing Prince, Braun, Weeks, and so on.

 

Escobar hasn't had even a FRACTION of the success in the minors as Prince, Braun, or Weeks.

Neither did Hardy, and that's only true from a Power standpoint. Weeks had a very mediocre AA campaign which people seem to conveniently forget.

 

Escobar will be every bit as valuable as the players you mentioned if he develops any kind of power, he's still a twig at 180 LBs, his frame could easily support another 25 - 30 LBs without sacrifiing any speed or quickness. The way he's currently configured he'll hit double digit HRs in the majors, and he has room for growth.

 

He has 2 significant holes in his game... he doesn't walk enough and he doesn't hit enough HRs, but he does everything else well.