Stop abusing Gallardo!

[Baldkin]

Occasionally stretching him out would be one thing, but that hasn't been the case with Yo lately.

The injuries come from pitching past a fatigue point and if a pitcher is losing velocity or location, he's already PAST that fatigue point.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-fatigue-affects-a-pitchers-fastball/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-injury-zone/

There is a happy medium, I agree. The point is, if throwing Yo out there for 110 to 120 pitch games is tripling the chance that he gets hurt, why risk it?

Pulling up numbers, from the injury zone article, it said 423 pitchers went on the DL last year, that's out of almost 700 that pitched. (316 in the AL, 362 in the NL), so nearly 2/3's of all pitchers in MLB got put on the DL last year.

[Baldkin]

Sounds accurate jeffyscott. I don't understand the stat myself. Does that mean that 69% of all injured pitchers have below average career PAP totals? Meaning, they get injured early in the season or....? Seems like the information is good information, I just don't understand all the variables.

Its saying 69% of pitchers who were injured had average or below average PAP counts, while 91% of healthy pitchers had average or below average PAP counts.

[lcbj68c]

That helps Erin, but is that just arm injuries? Or if Gallardo has a leg injury tomorrow and he is over PAP per his career totals, does that include him in that statistic?

[TooLiveBrew]

I doubt enough pitchers get hurt in fluky non-pitching ways to skew the numbers noticeably.

[Thurston Fluff]

There are enough injuries not arm related that I think it could skew them. Obliques injuries for one are common enough that I don't think you just say it is irrelevant.

[Paulus88]

On ESPN there is an article about this very topic. A majority of the quotes are from grizzled old veterens about the good old days. But there are also some interesting opinions about why 100 pitches isn't the same as the 100 of yesteryear.

 

Link

[Fear The Chorizo]

Does the 69% / 91% stat include all pitchers, i.e. relievers? If so, how is PAP determined with relievers?

 

I think there's too many outlying factors (including non-arm injuries) that can easily skew the data. In the past year, the Brewers lost Gallardo due to a freak knee injury running to first last year, Dave Bush this season due to getting drilled in the elbow by a line drive, both Suppan and Hoffman missed time with obliques - I know I'm missing other back and non-arm related injuries, but then one gets in the realm of what can be considered an injury directly related to PAP and what isn't...too much grey area for me.

 

Could this not also mean pitchers who suck don't get used as much and pitchers who don't pitch much, because they suck, do not get injured as often?

 

In a word, yes.

 

There's obviously a point that all pitchers will break down - I think the issue is that such a point is different for all pitchers. Factors like body type, mechanics, genetics, type of pitches, age, etc all influence a pitcher's injury probability far more than whether he's consistently throwing 100, 105, or 110 pitches per start, IMO. Unless you see a glaring PAP alarm like Mark Prior circa 2003, there's too many other factors to weigh before concluding anything off PAP. Truth be told, there's only so many bullets in every pitcher's arm, and while limiting pitch counts seem to help arm injury rates, there's just as valid an argument that inadequate throwing programs for developing arms prevent pitchers for increasing/improving their acceptable workload. Nowadays there's so much guaranteed money tied up in pitching that testing the limits of young arms is too risky compared to any possible gains in production. What often gets overlooked is how much strain a pitcher had on his arm during high school/college years, or even earlier in their development.

 

regarding Yo, I think the biggest concern is the year over year jump in innings for his young arm.

[DuWayne Steurer]

On ESPN there is an article about this very topic. A majority of the quotes are from grizzled old veterens about the good old days. But there is also some interesting opinions about why 100 pitches isn't the same as the 100 of yesteryear.

 

Link

 

Yeah, Tom Seaver comparing everyone to himself and Jerry Koosman.

 

Again, comparing *the field* to a couple of exceptional people really skews the argument in that favor. For every guy like Seaver who had a 20 year career, I can find 20 who flamed out before they were 30 from overuse/abuse.

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

There are enough injuries not arm related that I think it could skew them. Obliques injuries for one are common enough that I don't think you just say it is irrelevant.

If enough pitchers have oblique injuries, isn't it a fair assumption that the repetitive pitching motion causes the injury?

[topper09er]

For every guy like Seaver who had a 20 year career, I can find 20 who flamed out before they were 30 from overuse/abuse.

I really think that the reason the vast majority of pitchers never make/dont last long in the majors is due to ineffectiveness/sucking rather than overuse and arm problems.

[DHonks]

Topper (I assume a fellow MUHS fella), while that makes sense, we've now seen lots of players that had their effectiveness rapidly decline following heavy workload seasons. Yes, you are right that the vast majority of pitchers have short careers because of ineffectiveness. But Yo is better than most of those already. Our concern is that Yo could go the way of studs (Schilling, Sheets, Oswalt, Alex Fernandez, etc), or he could be worn out/injured and become like Eldred, Livian Hernandez, Russ Ortiz, Nick Neugebauer, Jeff D'Amico (see 2000 season as his abuse season), and so many others that were loaded with potential. There is something to be said for the way the M's have handled Felix Hernandez, the Twins with Johann Santana, etc. Yo should be on a 100-pitch count, with the ability to occasionally go to 110-115. He should not be going 100+ in 85% of his starts, including 110+ in nearly half of them. He's still not even close to 25. Once a pitcher hits 24/25, I'm less concerned. But I think of how much men's bodies often change between 20-25, and it makes sense to be careful

[topper09er]

(class of '03, #9 in baseball and football) I agree that you need to be careful with any young pitcher and make sure he is not overworked to the point of an injury. I just think that the point at which an injury may occur for every player in the league is different and it is silly to use the same benchmark of 100 pitches/start with the occasional 115 mixed in for every single player. Some players, like HOFers Seaver, Ryan proved that their number of pitches before ineffectiveness/injury is much, much higher than 100/start and some pitchers are expected to be able to throw 100/start when they cant. The stat the 69% of injured pitchers were below the average PAP level shows that it is just as bad to expect players to throw 100/start than it is to allow some guy to throw 140, even more so. That is another reason I dont like using pitch counts to determine a pitchers work, not only does it assume everyone gets hurt after a certain level it assumes everyone can last the same length on the mound.

 

If Yo is crusing in the 8th inning with 125 pitches you are not risking injury to him, especially when he comes back the next start at the same level. His injury level is higher than 100 so why limit him to it.

[Baldkin]

The Cubs and Dusty Baker said the same thing about Kerry Wood.

[topper09er]

So did the Giants and Bruce Bochy about Tim Lincecum

[TheCrew07]

If Yo is crusing in the 8th inning with 125 pitches you are not risking injury to him, especially when he comes back the next start at the same level. His injury level is higher than 100 so why limit him to it.

I have no issues at all dismissing PAP, it's garbage based on flawed assumptions and analysis. However we aren't talking about PAP, we're talking about developing a pitcher, a pitcher who happens to be our franchise, hasn't pitched a full season in the majors in his career, and is coming off a season with only 24 IP. It doesn't matter that the injury wasn't to his arm, it only matters that he pitched 24 innings, so he's no longer stretched out to pitch 190-200 like he was on pace to be able to do going into last season. In some ways it's good because he had a relatively easy season while he's still at high risk for injury, but as far as being a workhorse this season, he's just not stretched out enough.

 

Furthermore, I'd like to see some proof the assertion above as his Game Logs do not bear that out, in fact they prove the opposite. Only once all season did have a Game Score (think of QB Rating in football, only this actually makes sense) over 80 with a pitch count of over 125, and he followed it up with with a dismal 55. In fact both times he's had a GS over 80 (cruising) on the season he's fell back into the mid 50s in the following game. Only once all season did he go over 110 pitches with a GS of least 70 and follow it up with another 110+ pitch 70+ GS game, that was June 26th and July 1. He was very close another time, on April 24th he went 106 pitches with a 76 GS and followed that with his best outing of the season, he went 116 pitches with an 88 GS on April 29th... However in his 3 subsequent starts after the April 29th game he went 53, 53, 30... after the July 1 game his next 2 games were 40 & 34. Is he getting hurt? Nope... is he pitching effectively after being pushed deep? Nope.

 

I'm not sure what you're basing your beliefs on, because developing pitchers might be the single hardest thing to do in Baseball, less than half of the pitchers in any pundits top 100 pitchers stay healthy enough to have a career. The game evidence and research also doesn't support your conclusions, so I'm left with the notion you're just pulling the idea out of thin air and refusing to back off of it in the face of overwhelming evidence.

 

Finally, and this really seals the deal for me personally, what exactly are we riding him towards this season? It seems very unnecessary to push him hard in a playoff race given his important to the franchise, let alone a season where it appears the breaks aren't going to go our way.

 

Game Score

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk

[topper09er]

The only time Yo threw 125+ pitches this season was May 25, 8 innings with 0 runs in a 1-0 game. His next outings he went:

5.1 IP, 1ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 9K, 97TP.

8.0 IP, 0ER, 2H, 4BB, 6K, 110TP.

5.0 IP, 2ER, 3H, 4BB, 6K, 105TP.

I know what a game score is and I regard as "just for fun." I dont care what his game score was, 5.1 IP, 9K, 1 R = good outing, effective pitching, outing was only short due to high pitches required to get 9Ks. 8IP, 0R = good outing. 5IP, 2ER = 3.60ERA and 1.4 WHIP = pretty good/good outing.

[TheCrew07]

So did the Giants and Bruce Bochy about Tim Lincecum

Remind me when Lincecum blew out his knee and only pitched 24 innings in a season? I'm not sure what the best case scenario actually proves and why you keep going to CY winners and Hall of Famers to make your point? Those cases are the overwhelming minority... for every Lincecum there are many more Santana, Marcum, Wood, Prior, Neugebauer, and McGowans. Young promising pitchers who got serverly injured early in their MLB careers... and those are just examples of the pitchers I think you'd know. The minors are littered with the corpses of promising arms that were blown out along the way...

[TheCrew07]

The only time Yo threw 125+ pitches this season was May 25, 8 innings with 0 runs in a 1-0 game. His next outings he went:

5.1 IP, 1ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 9K, 97TP.

8.0 IP, 0ER, 2H, 4BB, 6K, 110TP.

5.0 IP, 2ER, 3H, 4BB, 6K, 105TP.

I know what a game score is and I regard as "just for fun." I dont care what his game score was, 5.1 IP, 9K, 1 R = good outing, effective pitching, outing was only short due to high pitches required to get 9Ks. 8IP, 0R = good outing. 5IP, 2ER = 3.60ERA and 1.4 WHIP = pretty good/good outing.

How is 5.1 IP an effective outing? What starting pitcher, manager, or pitching coach would agree with you? Well then I say 4.2 IP pitched and anything less than 4 runs is a good outing, so he's been good in every game but 3 all season!

 

He didn't come back the next start at the same level, that's the whole point, when he's pushed over 110 pitches in back to back games he tends to pitch poorly in his subsequent starts. You're simply seeing what you want to see despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

[DHonks]

Topper (class '99), I've always felt that sometimes pitchers have more in their tank than other occasions. So occasionally letting pitchers go 115-120 isn't bad. But often times young pitchers work hard throwing only 100 pitches in 5 innings on a hot, muggy night. Those are the outings where Yo and Parra should not be pushed for another inning, because those are high stress innings and on a night when fatigue is a factor

[jeffy]

Finally, and this really seals the deal for me personally, what exactly are we riding him towards this season?

Unfortunately, I now do agree with this. It is time to start thinking about next year.

[Ayt]

I'm not sure what you're basing your beliefs on, because developing pitchers might be the single hardest thing to do in Baseball, less than half of the pitchers in any pundits top 100 pitchers stay healthy enough to have a career. The game evidence and research also doesn't support your conclusions, so I'm left with the notion you're just pulling the idea out of thin air and refusing to back off of it in the face of overwhelming evidence.

Pretty much. If Yo were to blow out his arm next month I'm sure he'd simply say, "meh, it could have happened anyway.'

[Thurston Fluff]

Remind me when Lincecum blew out his knee and only pitched 24 innings in a season?

 

How does blowing out a knee on a freak play makes any difference to a pitchers arm health.

I'm not sure what the best case scenario actually proves and why you keep going to CY winners and Hall of Famers to make your point?

 

It makes as much a point as using a couple severely abused players, one of which had been predicted to have problems because of his throwing motion, have to do with using YoGa beyond 100 pitches once after he failed to go 6 innings the last several starts. I think the point is you have to know the particular pitcher and the general pattern of use more than just how he was used one or two times.

[TheCrew07]

How does blowing out a knee on a freak play makes any difference to a pitchers arm health.

Once again because he's no longer stretched out enough to pitch a full MLB season as he didn't have the opportunity to pitch last season. He had just gotten to the point where he could be expected to pitch 200 innings, only to have a setback that didn't allow him to hardly pitch at all. Furthermore since you're hung up on pitch count you're missing the greater issue. Fatigue isn't just based on a per game pitch count, the more high stress innings a pitcher has, the more quickly they tire during the game. Yo has had a ton of high stress innings this season which is why he has so many starts under 7 innings, and he's been pushed about as far as he can go every single time out. There are 3 levels of fatigue here, by inning, by game, and by season, this is why the Brewer minor league pitchers have a strict per inning pitch count... if they go past a certain number of pitches in an inning, they are done for the day.

 

You obviously don't understand the concept if you think I've cherry picked abused pitchers to make my point.

[Thurston Fluff]

Once again because he's no longer stretched out enough to pitch a full MLB season as he didn't have the opportunity to pitch last season.

 

Where are you getting this information from? Is there some sort of study that shows a knee injury means a player cannot pitch his normal amount the following year? If you can show me actual evidence that Yoga is being hurt by occasionally throwing 110+ pitches after a knee injury cut his seaosn short then maybe it would change my mind. I also want to know just how long it takes an arm to get back to the level it was prior to a knee injury. If it's just the lack of innings last year I see relievers go from the pen to the rotation build up enough arm strength over a matter of several outings. I also see pitchers every spring get up to their normal workload in a mtter of a couple months. YoGa has had the entire spring and several months in the season to build up his stamina.

I just don't see how a lack of innings last year being any reason at all why he can't go the same distance, pitch count wise, 3 1/2 months into the season as he could have been expected to if he had pitched all of last year.

 

Maybe if there is actual evidence that a pitchers shoulder needs a year to regain it's durability then I would subscribe to the theory that it takes that long for it to be built up again. So far all I've seen is pointing to other players with arm injuries and saying this will happen because YoGa is coming off a knee injury. That to me is apples and oranges.

 

You obviously don't understand the concept if you think I've cherry picked abused pitchers to make my point.

 

Thank you for the condescension it make so your point so much clearer. My point is YoGa is not abused like Prior was. I never said you cherry picked I said your examples are no more relevant than Topper's was. He's averaging about 6.4 innings so far this season. He does not have the poor mechanics of Wood. He was not coming off shoulder surgery like Neugabaur was when he was being pushed too hard nor was he as young as Neugy. Those are not any better comparisons than a pitcher who is coming off a big innings jump season and showing no ill side effects because of it.

[Baldkin]

There are 3 levels of fatigue here, by inning, by game, and by season

Great post, Crew. If I could try to convey one thing, it is that exact statement. Right now, the Brewers are not just risking Yo's arm by throwing him high pitch counts on a consistent basis (over half his starts have been over 110 pitches), they are also risking it by throwing him many more innings than he was able to do so last season.

 

There's no study about knee injuries, but there are plenty of studies that show that young pitchers injury and fatigue rates increase greatly if their innings jump by more than 30 or so in any given year.

 

You don't have to look any further than Manny Parra for an example of a guy who's innings got bumped way up and then hit a wall 2/3's of the way through the season (and has been terrible thus far this year). Personally, I think that's much more likely the root cause of Manny's problem than some "He's mentally weak" argument.