Stop abusing Gallardo!

[TooLiveBrew]

A pitch count of 105 can get to 120 with as few as two batters (heck, even one in a mega at-bat). So yes, (imo) Macha running Gallardo back out when he was already at 105 was basically stating that he was willing to work him up towards 120 or higher.

 

Honestly what is the issue with calling Gallardo young? 23 isn't young now?

 

 

Neither you nor anyone else knows precisely how many pitches in each game is the optimal number for Yo to throw

 

Actually there's been a lot of research done on this topic, and frankly if you don't want to take the time to look into it &/or take the findings seriously, I don't see the point in continuing this discussion. I really don't understand why you find monitoring the usage of a young, center-of-the-team's-core SP so laughable. I wonder what you felt about Ben Sheets during his tenure as a Brewer -- better usage of Sheets may have helped him stay a lot healthier. Not sure why the Brewers should risk Gallardo's long-term health just because a handful of people make fun of the concept.

[topper09er]

Neither you nor anyone else knows precisely how many pitches in each game is the optimal number for Yo to throw

 

Actually there's been a lot of research done on this topic

Can you show the volumes of research done on how many pitches per game is the optimal number for Yovanni Gallardo? I have never seen such a study. I have seen studies which are just averages based on dozens or hundreds other pitchers, however, none of those pitchers was Yovanni Gallrado. You cant just apply the average results of some study where the results were tailored to prove the findings that the research set out to prove, and all of the times where the theory of the research did not apply were ignored. Everyone is different, to think you can apply average results to any individual and expect perfect correlation is rediculous. Pitchers get hurt when they are still throwing as hard as they can when they are tired, getting tired happens differently to everyone and changes every start.

 

Another bad this about pitch counts is that not only do people unnecesarily remove pitchers after 100 pitches when they are fine, they also unwisely leave pitchers in until they get to 100 pitches. Yesterday was a great example, Looper, who looked terrible and could not command any of his pitches, had less than 80 pitches going into the 6th, so obviously he must go back since he is less than 100 pitches. I wanted him out, he was terrible, but no, less than 100 means automatically you have to go out for the next inning.

[Ennder]

Yesterday was a great example, Looper, who looked terrible and could not command any of his pitches, had less than 80 pitches going into the 6th, so obviously he must go back since he is less than 100 pitches. I wanted him out, he was terrible, but no, less than 100 means automatically you have to go out for the next inning

 

Macha has replaced pitchers plenty of times before 100 pitches so his pitch count had pretty much nothing to do with it.

[logan82]

Why should we save him for the Yankee's or Angels benefit?

 

I am worried about his health next year and all the years we have him. I don't think people would be making an issue if this was Gallardo's last year with us.

[topper09er]

Sorry, I meant it was a good example of a time when someone can struggle below the magical 100-pitch mark. I am just saying it is silly to apply the same standard to every player with different physical makeups and abilities.

[TheCrew07]

I literally linked half a dozen articles on this topic in another thread.

 

On average, injury risk decreases until a pitcher is 24, then slowly starts increasing. Each pitch does not carry the same injury risk... every pitch past the fatigue point exponentially increasing the risk of the injury.

 

The big issue with Gallardo was his innings jump in his previous season to 190ish, then not pitching but 24 innings last season. It's an issue of being stretched out enough to handle the workload. I have no desire to have Yo go the way of Prior, Wood, or Neugebauer.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's just not even worth it. The 'pitch counts are for losers' camp is firmly entrenched. I have literally no understanding as to why there's so much mocking & belittling of this.

 

Like I said, if people aren't willing to look into this on their own, I don't feel like anyone should have to do that work for them. Though I think it does say something when you're dismissing something you aren't even willing to research.

 

 

Everyone is different, to think you can apply average results to any individual and expect perfect correlation is rediculous.

 

No one said this, and this is a strawman that comes out almost every time this topic resurfaces.

[jeffy]

Honestly what is the issue with calling Gallardo young? 23 isn't young now?

 

The issue wrt that is 105 is a limit that applies to little leaguers 5-6 years younger than Yo. Yet, some seem to think that approximately this same number of pitches should be an arbitrary limit for this 23-1/2 year old, strong, robust, healthy young man.

[topper09er]

I literally linked half a dozen articles on this topic in another thread.

 

On average,

Thank you, so this doesnt apply to anyone in particular.

[logan82]

There are way fewer little league games in a year than games in a MLB season. They are not comparable at all.

[jeffy]

The 'pitch counts are for losers' camp is firmly entrenched. I have literally no understanding as to why there's so much mocking & belittling of this.

Talk about a strawman...

 

What a convenient way for you to belittle and mock all those whose opinions differs from your's.

[Baldkin]

Can you show the volumes of research done on how many pitches per game is the optimal number for Yovanni Gallardo?

No, no one has that study. I also haven't seen the study that shows that keeping oil in my car's engine will help keep it running. So, I better just drain the oil and go for a nice long drive.

 

The point isn't if he can handle it or not. The point is, why risk it? Especially when game situation dictates that he should be pulled. If you're going to pull him as soon as a guy gets on base, why send him back out there at all?

 

As for Looper not being pulled, he hadn't walked a guy since the first, and the only real hard hit ball since then was by McCann. It was more about Looper being better than Burns for the 6th inning than anything else.

[topper09er]

TooLiveBrew[/b]]It's just not even worth it. The 'pitch counts are for losers' camp is firmly entrenched. I have literally no understanding as to why there's so much mocking & belittling of this.

I dont think it is for losers. I think it has a value and teams should keep pitch counts for every pitcher. Infact, if I was in charge I would keep a much more specific count which counted different pitches and you could possibly notice things like that a certain pitchers tends to lose velocity on his heater after he has thrown 60 of them or whatever. Or after this guy has around 80 pitches he starts to throw his fastball for more balls or his curve is hanging more. I think anytime you try to apply some numbers to something you may see a trend develop which will help you make better future decisions. My only problem is that the overall average pitch trend for every pitcher in the league gets applied to everyone equally. If you watch the game you should know when to take your pitcher out without ever looking at the pitch count. This will change every outing for every pitcher. Yo was cruising on Saturday, his pitches were still nasty and he wasnt missing the zone. His second last inning he threw 9 pitches and got 3 weak grounders. There was absolutely no reason to pull him, he was fine.

 

Also, how do you explain things like Tim Lincecum (who was "overworked" last year and is young and is fine this year) or David Riske, a guy who threw his arm out without every throwing too many pitches. Some guys get hurt, some guys dont. Some guys get tired after 80 pitches through 3 innings or some guys are still fine after 130 pitches. And the next outing those same guys will tire after a different number of pitches. I am not mocking pitch counts, just saying you should rely on in game baseball judgement over blindly using pitch counts no matter what is going on on the mound.

[bucks2281]

Yovani Gallardo is an asset, and he is critical to the future of the organization. Maybe he can handle the workload he's been given, maybe he can't. The fact of the matter is that he pitched 24 innings, appearing in only 6 games last year, so I think the concern is certainly valid.

 

There are way fewer little league games in a year than games in a MLB season.

 

Not only that, but little leaguers are not valuable, multi-million dollar assets.

[TooLiveBrew]

The 'pitch counts are for losers' camp is firmly entrenched. I have literally no understanding as to why there's so much mocking & belittling of this.

Talk about a strawman...

 

What a convenient way for you to belittle and mock all those whose opinions differs from your's.

I don't follow. You said pitch counts are for little-leaguers & talked about players being babied. Is that not belittling the concept?

 

I have to stop, though. No good will come of my participation in this any further.

[topper09er]

Baldkin[/b]]No, no one has that study. I also haven't seen the study that shows that keeping oil in my car's engine will help keep it running. So, I better just drain the oil and go for a nice long drive.

 

The point isn't if he can handle it or not. The point is, why risk it? Especially when game situation dictates that he should be pulled. If you're going to pull him as soon as a guy gets on base, why send him back out there at all?

I bet if you look in your glove compartment you find an owners manual which specifically tells you that your specifc car needs oil in the engine or it will fail. I would not recommend draining the oil.

 

My point is 1) if he is not tired then there is no risk of injury and 2) If he will get hurt in his career then it will happen no matter what. If there is something about your mechanics or physiology that will cause a problem when you pitch it will eventually come out.

 

Also, the in game situation clearly dictated that you leave Gallardo in on Saturday. You have a guy who has shut a team out for 7 innings and just came off of a 1-2-3 9 pitch inning where he got everyone to ground out. Preventing the other team from scoring is much more important that scoring another run for yourself. Yo struck out the first hitter the next inning and walked McLouth on a full count. I think it was a good strategy to say, this guy has owned this team, lets leave him in because he is doing so well today, however, if he finally begins to struggle we can bring in our best relief pitcher to finish them off and then hand it to Hoff. That way you have option A and option B to shut down the other team, which again, when it is 2-0 in the 8th, is the primary concern of the manager. Not trying to score more runs.

[TheCrew07]

I literally linked half a dozen articles on this topic in another thread.

 

On average,

Thank you, so this doesnt apply to anyone in particular.

It doesn't apply to anyone in particular because we don't know when exactly each individual pitcher will reach physical maturity. The point should be what exactly are we risking Yo's future for this season? Not, well there's a chance he can handle the workload so it's all good. When he's your only premium pitcher, is the risk worth the reward this season?

 

I absolutely agree that 100 pitches is arbitrary and that the threshold for fully developed arms should be different that developing arms, I've made that argument myself numerous times attacking lame PAP. Yo isn't a fully developed pitcher though, he's never pitched a full MLB season before, and he only pitched 24 innings last season. Err on the side of caution I say...

[jeffy]

I pointed out what the pitch counts are for little leaguers. I did not say that they were (only) for little leaguers.

 

I never used the term babying or anything similar, perhaps you have confused me with someone else.

[jeffy]

he only pitched 24 innings last season.

 

He pitched 24 innings in the majors. How many in the minors and on the side?

 

He had a leg injury, it is possible that he exercised his arm, while on the DL. Then again, maybe he just sat on the couch watching baseball and doing 12 oz. curls.

[topper09er]

Yo isn't a fully developed pitcher though, he's never pitched a full MLB season before, and he only pitched 24 innings last season. Err on the side of caution I say...

I agree Yo's future is more valuable than any 1 game, but my point is that if you watch a guy closely during a game you are not risking anything because he will not get hurt if he is not tired. So maybe he pitches 140 pitches in 8 innings in a 1-0 game, this is fine if he was still strong in the 8th. It may mean that now his next start he may not be fully there and may get tired after 80 pitches, so the next game you better pay attention and use caution and pull him a little early if you detect some tiring. It is still worth it if you thought your best chance to win the 1-0 game was to leave him in the 8th inning.

[TheCrew07]

what about the cumulative workload?

[topper09er]

If you notice a guy has been tiring early a few starts in a row then limit him to a low pitch count or skip a start and let him recover.

[joepepsi]

There's plenty of evidence that pitchers who throw 125 pitches in one game on average struggle for the next handful of games. If the Brewers can't hold onto a 4 run lead in the 8th they have a lot more wrong with them than worrying if the starter is fatigued.

 

Yo leads the majors in walks. I don't think a fatigued arm is the way to improve his command.

[TheCrew07]

If you notice a guy has been tiring early a few starts in a row then limit him to a low pitch count or skip a start and let him recover.

It doesn't work that way, there are 3 different levels of fatigue a team needs to be concerned with... pitches in an inning, pitches in a game, pitches in a season.

[topper09er]

There's plenty of evidence that pitchers who throw 125 pitches in one game on average struggle for the next handful of games. If the Brewers can't hold onto a 4 run lead in the 8th they have a lot more wrong with them than worrying if the starter is fatigued.

The only time Yo threw 125+ pitches this season was May 25, 8 innings with 0 runs in a 1-0 game. His next outings he went:

5.1 IP, 1ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 9K, 97TP.

8.0 IP, 0ER, 2H, 4BB, 6K, 110TP.

5.0 IP, 2ER, 3H, 4BB, 6K, 105TP.

 

Maybe your stat is an average that applies overall but from this small sample this year it appears to not apply to Yo.

 

His high walk total has been consistant the entire year and is his only weakness this season. His K total is also high, but it doesnt appear that his high walk total has anything to do with overworking.