Stop abusing Gallardo!

[TheCrew07]

First off one of the many reasons PAP stinks is not all pitchers are created equal, nor are mature arms in as much danger as developing arms. It's heart is in the right place, but there are literally double digit issues with the metric.

 

PAP aside this is about developing a pitcher, and Yo isn't fully developed, not even close. He's all we have at this point for top of the rotation talent, without him the rest is immaterial. We aren't going to outscore teams and win a world series with a rotation of Bush, Burns, Looper, Suppan, whomever... that's not realistic, nor do we really have a good chance at making the playoffs.

 

Since there is some misinformation being spread here:

 

BP discussion on the injury Nexus

A Hardball Times discussion

A Fangraphs Article

Hardball Review Article

A link to an actual scientific study done by Monash University in Australia. It's an interesting read and is already 12 years old, pitching discussed starting with Section 6.2, the study deals with all baseball and softball related injuries, prevention, and touches on rehabilitation.

[topper09er]

Anyone who relies on pitch count rather than observing the subtleties that happen to pitchers when they start to get tired do not have good baseball instincts and do not know their team very well.

 

Who are these people, though? I sincerely doubt there is anyone in MLB operating in this manner.

Maybe they dont exist anymore, but I know from watching games I can tell when someones curve ball isnt breaking as much or the fastball has lost velocity or they are missing the cathers target more often.

[Legacy25GT]

Keeping Gallardo in the game to pitch the 7th was certainly a questionable decision, for all the reasons presented. However, he had an 11 pitch 7th inning, all from the windup. No harm done. Had a runner reached base early in that inning, and Macha allowed Gallardo to pitch the 7th from the stretch, I'd have been upset.

 

I've always wondered about this, and it seems, based on your post, that you'd know the answer. Obviously the reason you pitch from the stretch is to get the ball to the plate quicker to make it harder to steal with runners on. But what is the effect on the pitch itself, and on the pitcher. Do pitchers lose velocity or control by pitching from the stretch? It sounds like you're alluding that it tires out your arm quicker?

 

Because I've always wondered why pitchers don't pitch from the stretch the whole game to keep the mechanics the same, or why for example they don't just throw in a pitch here and there from the stretch just to mess with the batter's timing.

[TheCrew07]

Anyone who relies on pitch count rather than observing the subtleties that happen to pitchers when they start to get tired do not have good baseball instincts and do not know their team very well.

 

Who are these people, though? I sincerely doubt there is anyone in MLB operating in this manner.

Maybe they dont exist anymore, but I know from watching games I can tell when someones curve ball isnt breaking as much or the fastball has lost velocity or they are missing the cathers target more often.

If you read the studies I linked you'll find that risk of injury is not linear... meaning each successive pitch when fatigued carries the same risk associated with it, it's actually exponential, each successive pitch past the point of fatigue greatly increases the risk of injury.

 

If a pitcher's stuff is noticeably worse, he's already fatigued. Typically you're going to find that most articles suggest a pitcher has physically matured and carries the least amount of risk for injury around ages 24-25. Past the physical maturation point, the chance of injury slowly increases each year until retirement.

 

Yo is 23, and only pitched 24 innings last season, common sense would seem to dictate the team should take it easy with him... Regardless of what he thinks he's capable of. The Rays did it to Price to start the season (I realize they were also saving service time) and he made a minor stink because he felt he was to ready to go. Sometimes you just have to protect a player from themselves.

[Ennder]

2008: Elbow, possibly pitch count related, possibly not. 3051 pitches thrown/31 starts = 98 pitches per start...so the magical 100 pitches per start was used but he still got hurt???

 

Not that I really think any amount of evidence is going to change your opinion since you seem pretty adamant that pitch counts don't matter, but in a situation like this you would want to look at his pitches per start before he actually got hurt. The entire reason he only had 98 pitches per start is because he left multiple starts with injuries that season. Most specifically the issue was an 8 game stretch in May/June where he averaged 112 pitches per start with him being pushed an extra inning a couple times when it really wasn't needed.

 

Also nobody is saying there is a magical number, the entire reason this argument is specific towards Gallardo as well as Sheets is we are talking about pitchers coming off injuries where they missed significant portions of the season. These are not normal pitchers, these are ones who you should specifically be more concerned about than other pitchers, if it had been Dave Bush I doubt anyone makes a big deal out of it.

[phxMILWfan]

I hope I didn't miss this in someone elses post but... I don't think this particular time it is a big deal because Yo has an extra day off before his next start. I hope he doesn't start the game before the All-Star game and then pitch in the All-star game. That might be a bit much.

[Baldkin]

There will always be guys who are freaks of nature who can throw 130 pitches a start and not have problems the next week, or the next year.

The issue with Gallardo, is he only threw...30 innings last year and he's still only 23. If you don't have to abuse him, and if you NEED him for the future of the franchise, why would you continue to do it?

 

 

Once again, the article I linked shows a higher chance for injury the higher a pitchers pitch count goes. When a pitcher becomes fatigued is always tough to tell, a pitcher will never come out of a game voluntarily -- unless Pujols is coming up -- We can argue back and forth on how many pitches or what an arbitrary number of pitches is before injury risk really increases... but my issue with this is:

 

Why risk the Brewers one real hope at a top of the line starter for the next 5-6 years by overworking him?

[Mays Hayes]

Keeping Gallardo in the game to pitch the 7th was certainly a questionable decision, for all the reasons presented. However, he had an 11 pitch 7th inning, all from the windup. No harm done. Had a runner reached base early in that inning, and Macha allowed Gallardo to pitch the 7th from the stretch, I'd have been upset.

 

I've always wondered about this, and it seems, based on your post, that you'd know the answer. Obviously the reason you pitch from the stretch is to get the ball to the plate quicker to make it harder to steal with runners on. But what is the effect on the pitch itself, and on the pitcher. Do pitchers lose velocity or control by pitching from the stretch? It sounds like you're alluding that it tires out your arm quicker?

 

Because I've always wondered why pitchers don't pitch from the stretch the whole game to keep the mechanics the same, or why for example they don't just throw in a pitch here and there from the stretch just to mess with the batter's timing.

Throwing from the stretch affects some pitchers more than others, but, in general, pitchers do lose velocity and tire faster than throwing from the windup. Two main reasons, momentum and tempo. Pitchers throw from the stretch to be quicker to the plate, and most pitchers have to speed up their delivery (time the ball breaks the glove to the release) from the stretch. This causes injury for the same reason fatigue causes injuries, poor mechanics. Also the momentum generated by the windup takes more effort to generate over a shorter time and distance from the stretch.

 

Generally the longer the pitchers natural delivery, the more they are adversely affected by pitching from the stretch. When you compound the fatigue the pitcher already has late in games with the effects of pitching from the stretch, it can easily lead to injuries. Not to mention the added stresses of holding base runners which can also cause poor mechanics and lead to injury. Bottomline is that pitch count is just one of many reasons to consider when assessing a pitchers ability to continue in a game, to me the amount of pitches thrown from the stretch especially late in games is just as important as pitch count.

[Ennder]

Bottomline is that pitch count is just one of many reasons to consider when assessing a pitchers ability to continue in a game, to me the amount of pitches thrown from the stretch especially late in games is just as important as pitch count.

 

Not to mention pitches per inning and which innings they were in. If a pitcher throws a bunch of 10 pitch innings and then has a tough 35 pitch inning mostly out of the stretch in say the 6th and ends with 102 pitches I probably want him out of the game.

[MJLiverock]

We can argue back and forth on how many pitches or what an arbitrary number of pitches is before injury risk really increases... but my issue with this is:

 

Why risk the Brewers one real hope at a top of the line starter for the next 5-6 years by overworking him?

I think this the point of the argument, how do you know he was overworked? He threw 114 pitches, yes it was over the arbitrary number of 100 but you, I, or some study full of holes has no proof whatsoever that he was overworked or perfectly fine. You've made the declaration that he was indeed overworked but we have zero proof of that being true other than opionion and conjecture based on a flawed study that can't possibly account for all the variables that go into pitching injuries or arm fatigue. The manager, pitching coach, and player seemed to think he could do it.

[topper09er]

I just think in general people rely on pitch counts too much like they are the end all be all and if the sacred 100 pitch limit is exceeded you are basically guaranteeing that your pitcher will be on the DL soon. Its like if a pitcher is sent out there with 120 pitches already we are just waiting for his arm to fall off. Or if some pitcher is struggling early in the 3rd inning or something but they only have 60 pitches managers never take them out because they need to get closer to 100 pitches before coming out. Or if some guy has 105 pitches after 6 innings due to a lot of strikeouts but is pitching well it is like the manager automatically has to take them out, and if they bullpen blows the game even though the starter was not struggling the manager can just cop out and say he couldnt risk sending the starter out. Whenever a manager sticks to the 100 pitch golden rule no ones questions their handling of the starting pitchers and if they dont it is the reason for every negative side effect but no one ever says "good decision to leave him in, he was effective late in the game."

 

Also, I dont buy the whole once he looks tired he is already way too tired. Its simple, if someone is not loosing their velocity and command they are not tired and not risking injury.

[TheCrew07]

I think this the point of the argument, how do you know he was overworked?

How do you know he wasn't? We aren't looking for an exact number of pitches, we're looking to err on the side of caution given that Yo is likely still at high risk in terms of physical development and also barely pitched the previous season. His arm may be able to take 200+ innings, but is it wise to even chance it?

[whizkid]

Or if some pitcher is struggling early in the 3rd inning or something but they only have 60 pitches managers never take them out because they need to get closer to 100 pitches before coming out.

 

This doesn't happen. Managers determine whether they replace guys early based on bullpen management.

[phxMILWfan]

I think this the point of the argument, how do you know he was overworked?

How do you know he wasn't? We aren't looking for an exact number of pitches, we're looking to err on the side of caution given that Yo is likely still at high risk in terms of physical development and also barely pitched the previous season. His arm may be able to take 200+ innings, but is it wise to even chance it?

 

I don't know how anyone can argue with this post by TheCrew. Why would anyone be willing, just on the off chance that there is some validity to pitch counts, to risk your 23 year old staff ace's health on a Wednesday in June? Is it worth it to grind an extra inning out of a guy when there is a 1% chance that it could contribute to him being injured or ineffective later?

[Mays Hayes]

Bottomline is that pitch count is just one of many reasons to consider when assessing a pitchers ability to continue in a game, to me the amount of pitches thrown from the stretch especially late in games is just as important as pitch count.

 

Not to mention pitches per inning and which innings they were in. If a pitcher throws a bunch of 10 pitch innings and then has a tough 35 pitch inning mostly out of the stretch in say the 6th and ends with 102 pitches I probably want him out of the game.

I probably would have pulled him after the 6th as well, considering it was a tough inning, he was due up, and the assumption he would have to be pulled during the 7th if someone reached base early. That fact that Yovanni can hit a little probably factored into the decision as much as anything. As it turned out he did pitch a clean 7th, and I don't feel that inning will take any kind of toll on Yovanni's arm in the long run. Things certainly could have played out differently though.

[logan82]

Even a good hitting pitcher is a worse option than almost any position player. Unless you want to give up an out, the pitcher should be pinch hit for.

[Oldcity]

Lincecum and Cain were mentioned earlier in this thread. Just because those two are still pitching well doesn't mean they still aren't at risk. What the Giants, a non-contending team, did to Lincecum last year was criminal. I was angered by it, and I'm not even a Giants fan. If I was I'd be irate.

 

It's about picking your spots. When the game situation calls for removing a young pitcher, why not do it? The risk outweighs the reward by far.

[Oldcity]

Worthy of a bump. Yet another situation tonight where Yo is pitching longer than he should. 107 pitches after seven with a two run lead and due to hit the next inning. Yet he's being thrown back out there in the eighth. You can't use Stetter, Coffey, DiFelice to get through the eighth inning? Start protecting your best asset!

[Godspeed]

I think a lot of this over-use is due to how good of a hitter Gallardo is. I imagine there have been quite a few times like tonight where Gallardo would not have been sent to bat late in the game if he hit more like Sheets.

 

Of course the only way this is still defensible is if you really believe he's a better option at the plate than the PH's on the bench. With Corey Hart available to PH this evening, I don't see any evidence to that opinion even if you inflate Gallardo's results at the plate.

[lcbj68c]

This is really much ado about nothing. 107 pitches? I don't see the concern. He's pitched beyond the 7th inning just 3 times all season, and has only pitched past 115 pitches on 4 occassions with his highest total being 126 in a 1-0 game. He is at 120 innings over 19 starts for an average of 6 1/3 per start. Gallardo is not being abused. If anything, by going 115 once in a while, it helps stretch out that arm. If he goes 140+, two consecutive starts, yeah, I'd be concerned. I'm actually elated with the way Gallardo is being handled.

[DHonks]

This abuse of Parra and Gallardo is the #1 reason I am so anti-Macha. Yo is 23 and missed last season. His limit should be 100 except on occasion. Throwing 100+ pitches 85% of the time is a bit much, especially with him throwing 110+ in 40% of his games. Yo's fastball command has been off for a while now, but I doubt it's going to get better when he's on the DL with a dead arm.

[Brewer Fever]

What are they, a bunch of pansies?

[Oldcity]

Nothing wrong with 107. The dumb move is sending him back out after that when the team has a lead, has already bridged the gap to their good late inning relievers and his spot is coming up. Oh, and we're talking about a 23 year old who missed almost all of last year!

[dadofandrew]

Both Parra and Yo have been handled with kid gloves. My goodness, take a look at pitch counts around the league. 125-130 is very common, and I think Yo's hit it once. Manny wastes about 20 pitches a game with balls in the dirt and at eye level, so his counts are naturally going to be higher, but he's been so bad much of the year, there's no concern about his numbers.

[JoeHova]

Gallardo has thrown the 24th most pitches in baseball this season. That seems a little high for a guy who missed most of last season and is only 23, but who knows? A lot of the guys ahead of him are also pretty young (Lincecum, Lester, Felix, Verlander, Jimenez, Garza, Billingsley, Josh Johnson, Weaver). My concern is not so much his youth but the fact that he missed last season. Of course, Josh Johnson missed most of the last 2 seasons and he's thrown more pitches than Yovani.