Brewers interested in Willy Taveras?

[Roscoe Chill]

Sure. Villanueva is either in the rotation or in AAA. I'd call that a lock.

 

That leaves 7 pitchers there, all of whom make the team if they do take 12 pitchers.

 

I'd frankly be shocked if they took only 11 pitchers, but if they do and all those players are still healthy/on the roster, Aquino makes the team over Sarfate. The organization and coaches don't seem sold on him.

 

That said, he will make the team because at least one of those guys will be hurt in coming out of the gates. So as the team stands now, Aquino is essentially a lock.

 

That's your opinion Peavey, but that's hardly grounds for "lock to make the team."

 

I'm not saying that he won't make the team, but there's a possibility he won't, and it wouldn't be totally shocking to anyone off brewerfan.net or to many on brewerfan.net. We're talking about Greg Freaking Aquino.

 

If Dennis Sarfate pitches awesome in spring training, they're just going to let him walk huh? Not saying it will happen, but it could.

[PeaveyFury]

That's your opinion Peavey, but that's hardly grounds for "lock to make the team."

 

Fair enough. But I guess you could turn right around and also say that I'm not convinced that Sarfate or Turnbow are locks to make the team either.

 

If Dennis Sarfate pitches awesome in spring training, they're just going to let him walk huh?

 

No, they'd probably keep 12 pitchers.

 

I just don't see how the Brewers could/would go into the season with Sarfate instead of Helling as the only upgrade/change in an otherwise dismal bullpen from 2006. Now Sarfate instead of Helling and Aquino instead of Kolb looks much nicer, at least on paper.

 

Anyway, back to this Taveras stuff. Anyone actually found anything to support this rumor at all?

[Roscoe Chill]

Well no, of course Sarfate isn't a lock to make the team. Turnbow on the other hand isn't going to be cut along with the money owed to him. Traded for almost nothing? Maybe.

[Never Outhustled]

Lock is a strong word. How about extremely likely?

 

Greg Aquino is extremely likely to make the team, because its extremely likely 1 of the top 12 pitchers on this team will open the season on the DL. Thats based on what has happened historically to all teams.

[dadofandrew]

because its extremely likely 1 of the top 12 pitchers on this team will open the season on the DL

 

What? But I've been told many times we're fine with Carlos V as our 5th starter, even though that leaves with a AAA vet as our 6th starter (or Zach Jackson).

[Ennder]

I think people are jumping the gun a bit on Taveras. In 1981 minor league AB's he posted a .372 OPS and a .753 OPS. Now that won't directly translate to the majors but it does show that he has some room to improve.

 

After the all star break last year he posted a .365 OBP and a .740 OPS which are pretty close to in line with the minor league stats. I don't know enough about him to judge his defensive play but I think there is more upside here than people are seeing. He still doesn't walk enough so his OBP is going to depend on AVG too much but again he showed better discipline in the minors, there is still a chance for him to be a consistent .350-.370 OBP leadoff hitter which has value if his defense is solid in CF.

[DHonks]

Taveras has tools which are not measured by today's standards. The current metrics out there place little importance on defense, range, speed, and base stealing. I think we all would acknowledge that the current metrics are biased against these. However, there are currently no better stats than OPS and its derivatives.

 

His defense and speed would create threats. However, at this point in time it's hard to argue that his OPS or OBP would help us. As some have said, Gwynn may be just as good right now, and he'd be free. The only situation when acquiring Taveras might make sense is if it helps get rid of the salary necessary to sign Suppan.

[bsglorydays]

I've only seen mention of Taveras being on the move again in reference to Rocco Baldelli. Maybe I'm missing a story somewhere.

 

C. Villanueva ?

D. Sarfate?

G. Aquino?

 

I gotta believe Villanueva will either be in the rotation in Milwaukee or in the rotation in Nashville. I don't see the point of him in the bullpen in Milwaukee. Sarfate should be given every opportunity to make the team, since he is out of options and arms like his don't just show up on your doorstep every day.

[splitterpfj]

No Peavey, I haven't seen anything on the web that supports this rumor.

[bjkrautk]

I think a number of people are being a bit harsh on a 24-year old. Tavarez isn't a great player, but there are some real positives from comparing his 2005 and 2006 numbers.

 

His P/PA went up significantly, from 3.52 to 3.91.

His walk rate, BB:SO, and Isolated Power numbers all increased, and

his OBP went up even though his BA went down.

 

It at least suggests that he's receptive to coaching. (Either that, or he just happened to improve in all the areas you'd look for improvement in a leadoff hitter.)

 

Not my favorite player...but a player who could have a breakout season, and is probably a better long-term option than Dave Roberts would have been. If the Rockies really were sniffing around Brady Clark, Taveras would make a good starting point.

[TooLiveBrew]

Quote:

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Adjusted for the fact that Miller plays neutral while Chase is a top hitters park,

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Peavey - Does anyone take into account that pitching staffs themselves play a role in formulating the Park Factor number? I know PF fluctuates from year to year (but I don't know by how much). What about teams that just have a lotta guys who give up round trippers or doubles or BBs and give up big innings?

 

I think I see some value in park adjusted stats, but I just don't really care in what park a guy succeeds. He still has to earn it, and the seemingly fluid state of these park factor stats seem to suggest, to me, that they aren't all they're cracked up to be.

 

I think park factor matters, but they're just not reliable enough measurements, IMO. Please correct me if I'm wrong

[Terok Balefire]

Hmm Tampa wants a SS and two arms for Rocco? If we sign Suppan, what would you guys think of a Hardy, Charlie V, bullpen arm trade?

[trwi7]

Charlie V plays baseball? That must be why he didn't play against the T'Wolves last night.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[UWRyan428]

Charlie V and the Aussie, the new reality TV show of Milwaukee Public TV. Half the fun would be figuring out which duo it stars. One the one hand, it could be about all the exploits of hopping between Nashville and Milwaukee. One the other hand, it could be two abnormally tall gents going around keeping little five year olds from enjoying a shortened game of basketball. Seriously, when are we going to see this? I get the feeling I'm the only one who finds the commercial funny...and sick. I just keep hoping for the little kid to sock the hairless wonder down under.

[PeaveyFury]

Peavey - Does anyone take into account that pitching staffs themselves play a role in formulating the Park Factor number? I know PF fluctuates from year to year (but I don't know by how much). What about teams that just have a lotta guys who give up round trippers or doubles or BBs and give up big innings?

 

I suppose it's kind of a chicken and the egg-type thing- do the pitchers have bad numbers because of the park, or does the park give up lots of runs because of the pitchers?

 

But I'm fairly certain it was considered a pretty extreme hitters park even with Johnson/Schilling/Webb in their rotation, so I'd say that's a good sign that it's not the pitchers.

 

I did find three-year weighted park adjustments (2003-2005) at the Baseball Think Tank, which confirms that Arizona is about the 3rd-4th best hitters park in baseball, so that at least shows some consistency, as they were also 4th overall in 2006:

 

www.baseballthinkfactory....2003_2005/

[splitterpfj]

I wondered about this point when Miller Park first opened. After a couple of seasons it had a reputation as a good home run hitting park, but the Brewers lineup was full of free swingers and the pitching staffs were horrible.

 

Is Miller Park really a good homer park, or will it look fairly average after 15 years of play?

[PeaveyFury]

Is Miller Park really a good homer park, or will it look fairly average after 15 years of play?

 

It's still essentially a good HR park (or at least a park where you want ground-ball types vs. fly-ball pitchers), but runs/non-HR slugging wise it's almost completely neutral, and almost exactly neutral overall.

[mikemercury]

It's it more of a flyball park with the roof closed, and less of one with the roof open?

 

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[MessiahRp]

So exactly what does Tavaras bring that TGJ does not? Everybody slams Gwynn as not being good enough to play with the Crew next year but I personally think he's better tahn Mr. Genius Melvin's other annoited targets for the position (Roberts/Tavaras).

 

Rp

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

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enough to play with the Crew next year but I personally think he's better tahn Mr. Genius Melvin's other annoited targets for the position (Roberts/Tavaras).

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I think Tavaras is one of the fastest guys in the game. Maybe I'm wrong there, but that's what I seem to recall. Tony would walk more.

 

Personally, I think you're right. I don't think they're that different. Tavaras would provide more speed, maybe a higher BA. TGJR would walk a bit more.

[PeaveyFury]

I personally think he's better tahn Mr. Genius Melvin's other annoited targets for the position (Roberts/Tavaras).

 

I personally think this entire thing is a figment of someone's imagination, as there's still nothing to support this thread at all.

[Ennder]

Probably because Gwynn hasn't even been able to manage to hold a .700 OPS in the minors and isn't as fast as taveras. He's pretty much inferior in every way except maybe defense.

 

I don't raelly care or expect to get Taveraas, but he certainly is a better option than Gwynn.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks, Peavey. I appreciate the homework. It kind of reinforces my initial thought, but with a better perspective. PF, overall, is a relatively irrelevant stat, as most MLB parks are within .10 points of 1.

 

What I now recognize as important though, is that there are a few parks - at the highest and lowest ends of the specturm - that do warrant special consideration. Chase Field is one of the few that rated over 1.10 (although not by much at 1.12).

 

Just for fun, and because others might want to look at strictly MLB parks, without sifting, here are the rankings of the 30 MLB teams from the list:

 

 

1.34 -- Colorado

1.16 -- Texas

1.12 -- Arizona

1.10 -- Boston

1.10 -- Philadelphia

1.08 -- Toronto

1.06 -- Chicago (AL)

1.06 -- Minnesota

1.04 -- Atlanta

1.02 -- Chicago (NL)*

1.02 -- Cincinnati*

1.02 -- Houston*

1.02 -- Milwaukee*

1.00 -- Kansas City

1.00 -- New York (AL)

1.00 -- Oakland

1.00 -- San Francisco

0.98 -- New York (NL)

0.98 -- St. Louis*

0.94 -- Baltimore

0.94 -- Los Angeles (AL)

0.94 -- Pittsburgh*

0.92 -- Cleveland

0.92 -- Detroit

0.92 -- Tampa Bay

0.90 -- Los Angeles (NL)

0.90 -- Seattle

0.88 -- Washington

0.84 -- Florida

0.82 -- San Diego

 

 

* NL Central teams (obviously) -- I find it very interesting that 4 of our 6 parks play at equal, and essentially neutral, levels. Call me simple or fickle, or whatever, but I like that our division doesn't have a statistical anomaly kind of park (Colorado, SD, etc.)

 

Also, remember to keep in mind that these park factor numbers are three-year averages, and probably much more accurate than simply using one year

[trwi7]

Quote:

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So exactly what does Tavaras bring that TGJ does not?

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Taveras bats right handed.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Brian the Automator]

Rumors need links. Let's not just be throwing around these kinds of things without proof.