Trade for a starter or...

[bobskube]

I think the season will seriously be in doubt. I am not a ledgie, but let's look at the facts.

 

Our #1 is good, but has not pitched this much...ever.

Bush has arm fatigue and near a 6.00 ERA.

Looper has a 5.00 ERA.

Suppan is Suppan.

Parra is in the minors.

No solid minor league help.

Our bullpen overused lately.

 

Can anyone talk me off the ledge?

[Invader3K]

It's going to be tough. Bush or Looper will have to seriously step up quickly for us to have a chance, I think. The trade for a starting pitcher we all assumed would be possible looks to be non-existent at this point.

 

I think assuming Gallardo would be able to pitch a whole season and be an instant replacement for Ben Sheets may have been a big mistake.

[brewmann04]

Not sure a starter is going to help,and it does not look like melvin will find a legit #1 on the Market.

[Invader3K]

brewmann, not to be a jerk, but spellcheck man, please!

 

Anyway, you're right...it doesn't look like we're going to get any kind of legitimate #1 starter, since it's sounding like Cliff Lee is not on the table, and every other decent #1 type who may have been available is on the DL right now. If we're lucky Melvin might be able to get someone like Harden or Washburn, but I don't know if that will be enough to keep us in contention down the stretch. Hopefully the offense can keep putting up 7-10 runs a game and keep this team's head above water.

[davego]

Another arm for the rotation is going to be hard to come by. I wonder if DM might look a different route and see what could be added to the pen to replace Seth (assuming he goes to the rotation) and possibly another bat?

[bklynbrewcrew]

I blame Melvin because we should have anticipated this in the offseason. We knew coming into the season that Gallardo was a number one stuff wise but barely pitched last year so at some point he will probably hit a wall. We also knew that Suppan and Looper are both nothing more than 5's. I think we counted on Parra developing into a big time pitcher and Bush at least being a solid number 3. I still have some hope for Bush but I dont expect much out of Parra at this point.

 

We would be in far better shape if Melvin had traded Hart or JJ last offseason, preferably Hart but then again we dont know what we could have gotten for him. If the best we could have gotten is someone like Sanchez then it is understandable why we didnt make a move. This season just goes to show how important it is to develop your own arms and Im happy that we seem to have lots of talent in the minors. Unfortunately that wont help us this season and I just dont think this rotation has what it takes to send us to the playoffs.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

If the Brewers want a solid starter, they're going to have to give up someone like Hart or Hardy. Theyve deemed Escobar and Gamel untouchable, so even if they want something like a Jarrod Washburn, they better be ready to give up someone of value, especially now that Peavy and Bedard are on the DL, and might be down past the deadline, other starters that might have been cheaper to aquire previously will be going up in price. A lot of contenders are in need of starting pitching. Makes one wonder if they could try to mend the bridge with Ben Sheets.

[Thurston Fluff]

A month ago the rotation was winning us games while the offense struggled. With the type of starters we have there will be rough stretches. Bush, Soup, and Looper are all established enough to know they will come out of their current struggles to be serviceable again. Parra's struggles have hurt but he has shown he can be a good pitcher if he can just regain a little of his form. YoGa has been fine. We never should have expected to ride the rotation this year. It was supposed to be good enough to allow a good offense to win. Despite the struggles of the rotation we had enough to go .500 on the road due to the offense. I think that is going to have to be part of the solution.

As far as trades I don't think we need a top of the line starter. I think it's the short starts that are hurting us more than anything. We need inning eaters now more than anything. That's why I believe we can get by with a smaller trade for a innings eater who can keep his ERA under 5.5 and be fine with the offense. If our rotation can go 6 or 7 innings on a regular basis the pen and offense is good enough to win most of those games even if the started gives up 4 or 5 runs.

 

All in all we are still a competitive team in the division and even while we are going through a rough stretch we are still in contention. We don't need a CC type trade this year nearly as much as we did last year. We have a better offense and much better bullpen. We do need one more reliable starter but it doesn't need to be top of the rotation IMHO.

[Ennder]

A month ago we were a lock for the playoffs because of how great the rotation is, now we are doomed because of how bad they are. I don't think anyone thought the rotation was the strength of the team but I'm surprised if anyone believes the last month is a true indicator of how good the rotation is either(we have a 6.77 ERA so far in June btw).

 

I really shouldn't visit this site during our cold streaks because it just frustrates me too much. I predict that people continue to say this team is doomed until the all star break since we have a tough schedule and then they jump back on board in late July and August when we are facing the astros, nats, padres and pirates every day and then we see what the team is really made of in Sept because we mostly face the other teams in the playoff hunt.

[mkm13]

Unless we get an absolute steal, or the starter we are trading for is young, I would rather us not make the trade. I do not want to see a rent a player this year. This starting rotation is more than 1 pitcher short of being playoff caliber. Make this a transition year, possibly trading Prince/JJ or whoever for top prospects, and set up the Brewers for success the following 5 years. The brewers somehow need a couple more good young pitchers to go along with Gallardo. Right now the closest that is for potentially happening is sitting in the lower levels of the minors and is a few years away.

[davego]

But Ennder, if you know what posters are going to say (and it can't be prevented) why be frustrated? I have taken that approach with watching Billy Hall hit. I'm convinced he will (and must) try to pull everything and must strike out doing so. Anything that exceeds this level of performance is simply an unexpected blessing.

[MJLiverock]

My biggest concern with the rotation at the beginning of the year was the innings. Losing Sheets and Sabathia who were guys that could throw more than 6 innings was going to put the bullpen in a tough spot as the year wore on. I still hold that concern. As the season keeps going and the bullpen is relied on to throw 3+ innings 5-6x a week they will wear down, coupled with a possiblity of Gallardo weakening as the innings pile up the team is going to need to figure something out just to cover the innings. Suppan, Looper, and #5, just don't give over 6 innings, Gallardo can occasionally do it but I think he won't much in the second half. By the end of the season the Brewers may have to look at piggy back starters just to cover the innings.

[The Truth]

While I remain hopeful that we can pull off a trade for a very good starter (perhaps a 3 team trade, involving Hardy) I have started to resign myself to the fact that such a trade is unlikely. And I recognize that Hardy will bring more in trade value (most likely) in the off-season, not at the deadline. I would expect we will make at least some sort of trade at the deadline though, whether for a #5 starter or more relief pitching or something else.

 

I do think that Bush, Suppan, and Looper will start pitching more towards their career averages. We need a reliable #5 starter, and I'm not convinced Parra can turn things around really quickly...

 

While alot of our core hitters (Hardy, Hall, Cameron) are very streaky, I do think we have a better overall hitting/fielding lineup than our divisional opponents, so I think we can contend for the playoffs with this team as is, provided our star players stay healthy and our #2, 3 and 4 pitchers return to their career averages.

[Tbadder]

I think this is one of those years where we just have to ride it out. We've had our hot streak that kept us in first, and that was great, now we're in a cold spell with the starters which was to be expected. If not for injuries to players on other teams we be at a far more realistic 3rd or 4th place by now. Sure Looper, Suppan, Bush will make a correction but we still have the weakest rotation of the four top teams in the NL Central if Carpenter stays healthy. We never were a playoff team; we were just in 1st place for awhile.

 

 

And as others have pointed out, pitching has dried up around the league with injuries, and there's squat in the minors, so I wouldn't expect any thing on the trade front other than a wing and a prayer (which Melvin does get lucky at sometimes--I'm not totally hopeless at all). No, the only thing that bugs me is the continued presence of Gamel as we waste service time on a team that's not gonna make the playoffs.

 

 

In the end I think it's okay. We've still got an exciting team to watch this summer. Long term the organization continues to move in the right direction--lets have fun and not get too down just because we're in a slow fade. I couldn't imagine being a Nationals fan.

[joepepsi]

Riding it out is probably the smartest move for the organization. The Orioles have several young pitchers who are doing quite well and moving through the system pretty fast. They haven't had a ss in two years. Waiting until the offseason to see if Hardy can be moved to a team like the O's for some of that pitching is going to better long term.

 

I am not ready to say Suppan and Looper are 5 ERA pitchers this year, or Bush and Parra are done. Most pitchers go through a dead arm or fatigue period over the course of the year. The Brewers are still one game better at this point than they were last year. At 69 games last year they were 8.5 back and in 3rd place.

 

While their poor month is a concern, it's not time to write off the season or assume things will continue to erode. There's a lot of baseball left to play.

[thebruce44]

In all seriousness, what would it take to get Double D back from the DBacks?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think that as long as Bedard's able to return to health, we'll see him in Milwaukee before the ASB. At least, I would prefer him to DD & I don't think the asking prices will be too different.

[JohnBriggs12]

If they added a guy this week via trade, there's no reason they couldn't turn around and sell him before August 1st if the team continues to flounder. bklynbrewcrew is right on the mark although the signs that Parra wouldn't cut it were there late last year. Looper was an okay signing if you're looking for a number 5 but paying anything for a number 5 isn't usually money well spent. Some of us were suggesting dealing Hart for quite some time. Melvin never seemed interested in dealing a Brewer produced product like Hart or Hardy. I suspect ego played a part. I think he loved hearing people in baseball talk about all the home grown products the Brewers had.

 

I think in retrospect, they also made a mistake in not returning Villanueva to the rotation this year and using the money spent on a mediocre starter like Looper on a solid reliever instead. Villanueva was very solid in his starting trials in 06 and 07. His struggles early in 08 (remember he only got 9 starts and a few of those were fine) were no doubt due in part to it being his first time in a rotation from the start of the year and basically knowing he had to prove himself. I think he would have been much more confident this year after his bullpen success last year. After all, other than Gallardo, Villanueva has the most experience starting in the majors of anyone under the age of 26 in the entire organization. To basically give up on him ever starting is shortsighted especially with so few real high level pitching prospects.

 

My suggestion would be that they call KC. Juan Cruz has been a big disappointment and they'd probably listen to any offer for him. Then I'd put Cruz in the Brewer pen and hope a return to the NL revives him. I'd then send down Villanueva for 2-3 AAA starts to stretch out his arm and bring him back in mid July in the Brewer rotation.

[logan82]

although the signs that Parra wouldn't cut it were there late last year

 

Do you mean when his innings got around the point where most people thought he would wear down because he hadn't pitched many innings the year before?

[mkm13]

People keep bringing up possibly trading Hart. What exactly are people expecting in return for a guy who plays right field and has a .325 OBP?

[JohnBriggs12]

although the signs that Parra wouldn't cut it were there late last year

 

Do you mean when his innings got around the point where most people thought he would wear down because he hadn't pitched many innings the year before?

Why keep going there? The problem wasn't the innings but his propensity to run up pitch counts because he couldn't get easy outs. He exhibited that same weakness this year.

 

The "most people" you refer to are those that wanted him to succeed and looked for an excuse when he didn't or were just plain wrong.

[JohnBriggs12]

People keep bringing up possibly trading Hart. What exactly are people expecting in return for a guy who plays right field and has a .325 OBP?

Nobody's expecting teams would trade a number one starter, but Hart has value. He's a guy that's put up a .892 OPS as recently as 2007 and he's been a 20-20 guy the for 2 straight seasons and he's not eligible for FA for a few more years.

[crewcrazy]

Melvin never seemed interested in dealing a Brewer produced product like Hart or Hardy. I suspect ego played a part. I think he loved hearing people in baseball talk about all the home grown products the Brewers had.

Why do you think ego played a part? I'm not trying to start anything, I just haven't heard anyone make that claim before, so I'm a little curious. I personally think that not dealing Hart had more to do with Corey's horrific slump to end last season that could've had a big impact on his trade value. If I had to guess, I'd say Melvin didn't want to sell low on Hart. It could be ego in that regard, but I think it's more likely that he thinks Hart's true ability is higher than what some scouts may have seen post All-Star break last year.

[CheezWizHed]

I personally think that not dealing Hart had more to do with Corey's horrific slump to end last season that could've had a big impact on his trade value. If I had to guess, I'd say Melvin didn't want to sell low on Hart.

 

And the fact that we didn't have a replacement for Hart. Trading Hart just makes another hole to fill.

 

JJ at least had Escobar behind him at AA that was at least defensively ready (although a full year at AAA will be good for him). I don't think Katin counts as a possible RF starter (at least not yet).

[Postseason2006]

I said this two years ago, but trading Cruz in the Lee deal was foolish. If the brewers would've kept him, getting rid of Hart or Cruz would've added a key chip in any trade.