Sell, sell, sell?

[Tbadder]

I don't want the Brewers to be buyers. I think that's a poor long term strategy, and small market teams live and die with their farm systems. They need to trade for the very best young players: Bucholz, Baumgardner, etc. The Brewers may be still "in it", but it is also true that the Brewers may only appear to be "in it". 1.5 games behind only means something if the make up of the team is able to sustain and improve on that level of performance. I don't think they'll be able to sustain it, and the Cards, Cubs, and maybe even the Reds appear to be more capable than the Brewers of maintaining a playoff posture. And who's to say that selling wouldn't make them better? I think any team selling Bedard will almost immediately become better. And sometimes being negative is being negative, but sometimes it's being realistic, and a team that correctly analyzes the situation, and figures out they are out of it sooner can sell higher than a team that waits too long.

[TheCrew]

#1 they are only 1 game back after tonights game

 

#2 If it it were a mirage, they wouldn't have been in first for well over a month (up until a few days ago)

 

The offense is essentially the same as last year - The pitching is not as good, but CC was here for a few months and Sheets was gone for a portion of the season due to injury. A full season of Yo (assuming he can stay close to pitching at his current level) and another top of the line starter such as Lee or Bedard and this team is just as good as last years team.

 

It amazes me how so many are ready to jump off the ledge after a 3 game series in a 162 game season.

[Invader3K]

Also of note is that as of last night, the Brewers are tied with the Giants for the NL Wild Card spot. It's been a rough stretch, but a decent home stand performance will put a lot of fan minds at ease, in my opinion. Yeah, if they tank over the next few weeks, then you think about selling...but right now they're right in the thick of the playoff hunt, which is really all you can ask for this time of year. We still have over half the schedule to play out yet.

[pretendastronaut]

You have to be careful judging our chances this season exclusively on these next two+ weeks. This stretch we're in now until the break is our single toughest stretch of the season in my opinion. If we can get through the next two weeks without a ton of damage, we have a lot of time to make up ground. You also have to consider we play the Cubs 7 times and the Cards 6 times in September. Our season really hinges on what happens in September. Are we going to be prepared to compete in September, or will we have throw in the towel in July?

[Pudster13]

You have to be careful judging our chances this season exclusively on these next two+ weeks. This stretch we're in now until the break is our single toughest stretch of the season in my opinion. If we can get through the next two weeks without a ton of damage, we have a lot of time to make up ground. You also have to consider we play the Cubs 7 times and the Cards 6 times in September. Our season really hinges on what happens in September. Are we going to be prepared to compete in September, or will we have throw in the towel in July?

This is a very good point. The team needs to perform well in the next 3 weeks prior to the all-star break or at least "thread water" and stay in the playoff hunt. Our second half schedule is not as tough.

 

Bottom line: BASEBALL IS A BUSINESS!

 

While the ultimate goal is to bring a World Series back to Milwaukee, fans needs to keep in mind that baseball is a business. The REAL goal is to puts butts in the seats at Miller Park. Making the playoffs last year re-energized the fan base and has once again made Milwaukee a great baseball town. We are currently on pace to break last season's Milwaukee attendence record. Brewers merchandise sales is at a record level despite the current economy. The Brewers will NOT be sellers this trading deadline for these very reasons.

 

The 20,000+ "fair weather" fans that have been coming to Miller Park each home game (of the 37,500 current average) can find other things to do with their money if the Brewers "sell" or give up on the season this year with the division/wild card up for grabs.

 

The window of opportunity for this team is NOW! We're not playing for 2011-2013, we are playing for NOW! There is no guarantee that the Brewers can be in contention every season. With the large fan base of the Cubs/Cardinals, this division could easily have the look of the AL East (Yankees/Red Sox) in a few years if the Cardinals ever decide to start spending on free agents and if the Cubs ever actually spend "wisely" on free agents (Soriano/Fukudome/Bradley=Unwise)

 

Like someone already brought up, we need to model the Twins, not the Marlins. The Marlins can afford to be "sellers" every year until they feel all the pieces are in place because they have a terrible fan base. It doesn't affect them too much financially doing it every year. We need to consistently mix veterans in with the fruits of a bountiful farm system each year to stay perrenial small market contentors like the Twins.

 

Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, etc will all be free agents by 2012, and we won't be able to keep/sign them all beyond that. We have as much talent on offense as any team in the league. We have a young ACE in Gallardo. Our window of opportunity is NOW!

 

Go out and get us a starting pitcher!

 

In Melvin We Trust.

[Invader3K]

Pudster, you're absolutely right. While technically speaking, selling some starss like Hardy and Fielder off now might be "smart" for the future (and even that is debatable), the Brewers would never do that at this point because the attendance, merchandise sales, etc. would all bottom out. The Brewers need the fans to keep coming in order to not only help payroll for this season, but also to pay for the stuff like scouting and other things people had been clamoring for the team to invest in before the current "renaissance" in Milwaukee.

[jackalope02ca]

Hard to believe anyone would even suggest sell when you have one of the top 5 teams in the standings in the NL. Sure we are having some problems with the pitching now but what team doesn't have an injury somewhere? I'm all for buying a #5 type starter for the short term to get us through until Bush is back. If we suddenly lose 15 of the next 20 maybe we sell but in all honesty there isn't much to sell. The core of this team is going to be kept together so maybe a Cameron or Kendall goes somewhere if we are out of it towards the deadline. That isn't going to get you much of a return so if you are even close (within 10) at the deadline we need to try to buy. I'm glad to have owner who genuinely wants to win and doesn't mind trying.

[ELCABALLO45]

Yeah I have no idea why there would be a "sell" thread up right now. As of right now we are tied for 1st in the Wild Card standings. I know it's not the smartest thing to look at WC standings in June, but if we can already call the season dead, its pretty foolish to say it right now.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure how the standings are as relevant as the actual state of the team. The SP was in disarray before Bush going on the DL and needs to climb out of it in a hurry, or the Brewers will find themselves heading the wrong direction and an easy 5+ games back of the WC by the all-star break. This is a not a team that will consistently win high scoring games, we'll win our share, but I'm not going to hang my hat on consistently winning those types of games, and it's certainly not going to work in the playoffs.

 

Parra's regression and Bush's injury are absolutely crushing blows to a team that doesn't have SP depth like the Crew, which we all knew coming into the season. I believe people are vastly underrating the domino effect caused by Parra's ineffectiveness, the team was counting on him pitching like a #2, I was counting on him to be that good as well, instead he pitched worse than replacement level. Bush might be healthy by August, Parra might be pitching like a stud again by September, but there are simply too many unknowns on this team.

 

Spinning the contract status of position players into the "window" is going down the wrong path in my opinion, the window is only truly open when there's sufficient SP on the team. Last year heading into the season we thought we had Sheets and Yo to headline an above average rotation that included an improving Parra and Bush, we ended up with Sheets, Sabathia, and Bush. This year our 2 best pitchers talent wise were Yo and Parra... and while Yo is very good, he didn't pitch at all last season and shouldn't be ridden into the ground regardless what's happening around him and Parra regressed, not to mention Looper's struggles most of the season and Bush's struggles of late. To me this is about picking your spots, not about trying to force something to happen that might not be there when we'll have all of the young positions players back again next year if we want them. Cameron and Kendell may be gone, but neither is irreplaceable, nor is Hardy irreplaceable, my personal feelings about him aside as he's my favorite Brewer.

[bando1234]

The problem in my opinion is it could co either way right now. We need to access the situation around the July 31st deadline & move foward. The names that we would really be looking at are Cameron, Kendall, Hoffman & possibly JJ. I dont think we would get much with Kendall & we would be selling JJ very low right now. Hoffman & Cameron could be possiblites. I dont want to be like the White Sox "White Flag trade" of 97 ( although they did get 2 good bullpen arms back). If we just hold out a bit longer everything will fall in place.

[kramnoj]

I'm not sure how the standings are as relevant as the actual state of the team.

 

Because the Brewers are competing against other teams, not against whatever ideal we have for what their pitching staff should look like.

 

The number of teams that should have better records than the Brewers isn't that large. The Brewers will presumably be in the playoff hunt in July and if a deal is available that will improve this team without giving away star players, it's a move that will make sense for the continuing business interests of the Brewers.

[804Sox]

Two early to sell for several reasons (which others have touched on)

 

1) The Brewers are still in contention and the Cubs and Cards both have serious questionmarks. After a few more weeks of play the Brewers will have a much better idea where they stand relative to other teams in the division and other teams in the wildcard hunt. The Giants are far from perfect also.

 

2) Sellers generally get more return value as the deadline approaches. We've already seen the list of available pitchers shrink in the past few weeks with the injury of Peavy, perhaps Dice-K's struggles (making Penny less expendable), etc. The teams wanting to buy will not get any less desperate if they remain in tight races and bidding wars with close, hard deadlines are good for the seller.

 

3) It would be wise to at least milk another few weeks of near sell-outs with a nice homestand coming up with the team in contention.

[BrewCrewRising]

804Sox wrote:

2) Sellers generally get more return value as the deadline approaches. We've already seen the list of available pitchers shrink in the past few weeks with the injury of Peavy, perhaps Dice-K's struggles (making Penny less expendable), etc. The teams wanting to buy will not get any less desperate if they remain in tight races and bidding wars with close, hard deadlines are good for the seller.

So, are you saying that if we played it close to the deadline, we might even be able to unload Suppan? Oh, sweet deliverance!

 

I know DM would never do it. But a guy can dream. (I also know that as frustrating as he can be, lately he's one of our more stable options.)

[JohnBriggs12]

This thread couldn't have waited until we actually *were* out of it?

 

Maybe things will go downhill the next couple weeks and we'll be well back of the division and WC. Or maybe things will be roughly status quo and this conversation will still be irrelevant. Regardless, Melvin is most assuredly not thinking about selling right now.

 

As you said JB, "if the team is out of it isn't it a perfect time to let Escobar get used to major league pitching?"

 

The team is not out of it, and your premise is false. You say you're not trying to be negative, but I'm not sure why you would start a thread advocating the Brewers should sell when they *are* still in it.

Would you and others stop twisting my words? My initial post said "this looks like a team that will be selling in July". I didn't advocate selling now. In fact somewhere I posted they need to buy a guy or two now then if it doesn't work turn around and sell the same guy a month from now. It's been done. My comment on Escobar was based on if as I predict, they are out of it in July then it's a perfect time to see Escobar. How is that a false premise? What part of the word "if" is so confusing?

 

That I occasionally go out on a limb with a negative prediction is based on the reality of what I'm watching. Sure there are ups and downs in seasons, but this team just doesn't have the starting pitching that either the Cardinals or the Cubs have. Would anyone here not rather have a top 3 of Carpenter, Wainwright and Piniero or Zambrano, Lilly and Dempster over Gallardo, Suppan and Looper? It's a no-brainer.

 

I started this thread for one reason. So that whenever what appears to me to be inevitable happens, that fans take it in stride. It's not the end of the world, and there are positives that can help this team as it looks to the future.

[kramnoj]

Sure there are ups and downs in seasons, but this team just doesn't have the starting pitching that either the Cardinals or the Cubs have.

 

It doesn't make any sense to just look at 3 players and decide that this is the reason that the Brewers won't be able to compete.

 

I started this thread for one reason. So that whenever what appears to me to be inevitable happens, that fans take it in stride.

 

I doubt that's neccessary. Plenty of people had their own doubts before this thread started.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The problem the Brewers are trending towards is having 3 top starters not matching up with other division opponents, and having next to nothing in the 4-5 rotation spots...the bullpen has been ok, but it's definitely going to regress the more innings it has to pitch.

 

Losing the # of innings Sheets and Sabathia pitched for the Brewers last season was much more of a blow than many realized - when you had two guys who were basically guaranteed 7+ inning starters that could dominate a game for 2.5 months of the season, losing streaks just weren't going to last very long. expecting to replace their innings from last year with Gallardo, Parra, and Looper just isn't going to be as effective.

 

We all knew that pitching depth was a big concern heading into the season, and that if they were serious about contending a trade for a solid starter was probably necessary - now that many of the big names that could be traded are injured and some of the Brewers' own starters are getting hurt and bad at the same time, it's a very tough spot for the team to be in.

 

I don't see the Brewers becoming sellers unless the bottom completely falls out with their pitching and there's no decent solutions that can be traded for...

[Invader3K]

What's disappointing to me especially, is that if you were reading between the lines around here, if he hadn't gone on the DL, it was sounding like a solid bet that Jake Peavy would be in a Brewers uniform right now. A move like that would have already changed the complexion of this entire season.

[TooLiveBrew]

That I occasionally go out on a limb with a negative prediction is based on the reality of what I'm watching. Sure there are ups and downs in seasons, but this team just doesn't have the starting pitching that either the Cardinals or the Cubs have. Would anyone here not rather have a top 3 of Carpenter, Wainwright and Piniero or Zambrano, Lilly and Dempster over Gallardo, Suppan and Looper? It's a no-brainer.

 

Joel Pineiro? I can't take that seriously. And whose offense is the no-brainer? Right now the division race is very tight, and I think it's been obvious since the beginning of the season that the Brewers would need to be buyers in terms of pitching. Thing is, the Brewers can find a Lilly/Dempster arm, while neither the Cubs nor Cards are likely to find a player like Fielder or Braun to close the gap offensively. Hardy will heat up, Hart looks back on his game, and so far the replacements for Rickie Weeks have stepped up admirably.

 

 

Would you and others stop twisting my words? My initial post said "this looks like a team that will be selling in July". I didn't advocate selling now.

 

This is from the exact same post in which you said the above:

 

--"I started this thread for one reason. So that whenever what appears to me to be inevitable happens, that fans take it in stride."--

 

Sometimes I don't even know how to react to what you post. Do you really enjoy making overtly negative posts with supposed out clauses so you can never be wrong? Or do you actually believe you're doing everyone this huge favor in preparing our feeble brains for disaster?

[MJLiverock]

I agree somewhat with JB. Not every post has to be sunshine and rainbows about the Brewers. His view seems more realistic than some of the assumptions that everything will fall perfectly into place for the Brewers. Why should it be expected that Hardy and Hart are going to suddenly get red hot and guys like Mcgehee and Counsell will keep it up but Ludwick, Ankiel, Pujols, Soriano, D Lee, Soto, Bradley, a return of A Ram, will all keep stay cold. STL was rumored as much for Peavy as Milwaukee and they could trade for upgrades as well.

 

Every post doesn't have to come to the conclusion that Hardy is going to end up at .270 with 20 HRs or that Hart hasn't been pretty mediocre or worse from nearly a year now.

 

For the Brewers to succeed this season their pitching staff had to have a lot of things work out perfectly. Parra had to throw 180+ effective innings, Gallardo had to rebound from injury and play his first full ML season and pitch 180+ innings, Bush had to find consistency, Soup and Loop had to be average.

 

Well Parra stunk and got shipped down, it doesn't really matter how or why, he didn't get the job done. Bush is on the DL and threw a few poor outgings before either admitting he was hurt or the Brewers didn't diagnose it properly, or he was just bad for those outings. Soup and Loop can't get past the 5th or 6th inning. The bullpen has been fantastic but I fear the innings they are going to have to eat are going to catch up to them. I have stated this many times but the innings needed to be replaced due to the loss of Sheets and Sabathia are going to be a problem, the staff just doesn't have guys that can throw 200 innings or be on a pace for that many by throwing 7 innings a game.

 

Adding another quality starting pitcher is going to be expensive if possible at all. Tradeable guys got hurt and a lot of teams are looking so the bidding will favor the sellers. Is it worth it for the Brewers to overpay for a starter who may not be enough to matter anyway. I don't think guys like Washburn are going to put the team over the top unless he stays red hot for his skillset. Guys like Lilly/Dempster? I don't which guys available are of that caliber but either of them would easily be the 2nd best pitcher on the Brewer staff and would rival Gallardo for best for this season given my belief he will wear down.

 

The Cardinals are expected to get Lohse back soon and he is better than anyone on the Brewer staff right now outside of Gallardo. Coupled with Carpenter and Wainwright makes their staff much better than the Brewers. Piniero is probably equal to Suppan, maybe a little better given Duncan's propensity to get the most out of guys. Wellenmeyer is terrible but as a 5th starter who isn't.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I wouldn't be selling just to sell for some insignificant parts but I definitely would not be buying. The only deals I would make this year would be for long term pieces down the road. I.e. you get a great offer for JJ or Hart that you can't say no to.

[BrewCrewRising]

I wouldn't be selling just to sell for some insignificant parts but I definitely would not be buying. The only deals I would make this year would be for long term pieces down the road. I.e. you get a great offer for JJ or Hart that you can't say no to.

I think this is close to what will happen. I think this year's trades will look more like when they traded Carlos Lee for parts that could be used longer term. If we were in on Peavy, and if DM has kicked the tires on Cliff Lee, that's already what he's thinking. That's why I wouldn't be suprised if he did trade for somebody non-sexy like Meche that will annoy a lot of people.

 

It's probably the right thing to do (long term, not necessarily trading for Meche). As the consensus says, we're not a guy or two from being overpoweringly the favorite. It would be a big gamble to give up high prospects for rentals. If we give up prospects, it will be for players we control through 2010, I believe.

[naivin]

As the consensus says, we're not a guy or two from being overpoweringly the favorite. It would be a big gamble to give up high prospects for rentals.

I think this is really a tough one. On the one hand if those guys are a solid lead off hitter/2B, and a reliable starting pitcher, I would say the Brewers would almost have to be considered the favorites in a bad division. On the other hand, I hold out little hope for Parra this year, and I fear Gallardo will tire late, and the Cubs SP will be too much to overcome. Then again, the Cubs bullpen could also be too much for the Cubs's SP to overcome as well. I think its a tough call, but it sure looks like there is a very large window open if DM can figure out the right move(s).

[brewmann04]

with 6 games remaining in the home stand ,i am not sure we have an answer if the Brewers have enough pieces to be Buyers or are thety better off being Sellers at this Point looking to add quality young arms.

[twobrewers]

Take look ahead at the Brewers schedule.

 

The Brewer's wouldn't have made the playoffs last year without beating up on the bottom feeders such as Pittsburgh, Washington and San Diego.

 

We still have 9 game against Pittsburgh. We have 8 games against Washington. And 6 against San Diego.

 

By the end of August the Brewers will be in first place again. I have no idea if they can hold on through a tough September.

[brewmann04]

Lets not put anything in stone the Pirates are due to beat us and Wash still has some bit in them.