Sell, sell, sell?

[TheCrew07]

If this is our best opportunity we're in serious trouble as a franchise. How could we have realistic playoff aspirations with Bush, Suppan, Looper as the only established pitchers, needing Parra to take a big step forward, and hoping Yo would last the season after not pitching last year? That's way too many dominoes that need to fall just right... could it happen? Yes, was it a realistic assumption? I don't believe it was, and I'm a huge fan of both Yo and Parra.

 

When the pitchers start pitching better the team will be competitive again, but it's certainly not overflowing with talent. "Hope and pray" is a stretch, Escobar and whomever don't need to be as good as Hardy and Fielder for the offensive output to remain similar. The difference can be made up via significant upgrades at other positions. For example, a serious offensive upgrade at C would more than make up for Fielder's absence. I like the prospects coming, you may not, that's a personal choice, but there's no dooms day on the horizon, not unless we dump everything trying to win now in the next 2 years.

 

This team would really need to make 2 moves for pitching as it stands, and that's just not reasonable nor is it realistic.

[Fatter than Joey]

The East doesn't look like they will be producing one, and who believes the Giants are a better team than the Brewers?

 

They don't have to be a better team, they just have to win more games. It's not as if the Brewers and Giants have the same exact schedule.

 

The Central will probably produce the WC this year, which means the Brewers would only have to beat one of the Cards and Cubs, not both.

 

I think getting ahead of one of these teams will be a challenge....

 

That said -- I tend to agree, if you can get an arm, go get it. We should be buyers right now.

[paul253]

If we are going to be buyers, we need to buy big like we did last season. I don't want to trade for a .500 pitcher with an era over 4. I still would go after Peavy, because he'll be back for probably half the season, plus you get him for 2 more years and his price is probably down a hair now that he's hurt. Either Peavy, Lee, or Bedard would be ok with me. The problem with selling is who are you going to sell that's going to bring anything? Hardy? He's barely hitting .200. Fielder? We still control him for 2 years and have no capable replacement so that hurts you for next you as well too. Cameron? Is he really going to bring in more than a possible #4 or #5 pitcher?

[TooLiveBrew]

Hardy would still bring back nice talent. Scouts & GMs don't tend to make as much of slumps as fans do when players have demonstrated success like Hardy. Not to mention the well-documented back luck J.J. ran into for much of this season, hitting the ball hard & just not finding the outfield grass.

 

That said, I don't want to see Hardy traded during this season.

[PeaveyFury]

If this is our best opportunity we're in serious trouble as a franchise.

 

No one is saying that this is our best opportunity, but that this IS an opportunity right now. There are ZERO guarantees that we have an opportunity 2-3 years from now. What if Escobar doesn't hit at a Major League level? What if Gallardo blows out his arm next year, putting our pitching situation in 2010 and 2011 into more turmoil than we're in now? There are no sure bets that we'll have a window in the future, all that is assured is where we are now, which is a whopping 1.5 games out of first, and a half game back in the wildcard, despite a very rough stretch of baseball over the last couple of weeks.

 

How could we have realistic playoff aspirations with Bush, Suppan, Looper as the only established pitchers, needing Parra to take a big step forward, and hoping Yo would last the season after not pitching last year?

 

All the more reason for you to get on board with upgrading our pitching situation at this point then, right?

The difference can be made up via significant upgrades at other positions. For example, a serious offensive upgrade at C would more than make up for Fielder's absence.

 

And it's more cost effective to acquire a serious offensive Catcher (arguably the most valuable commodity in trade or FA) than it is to acquire an upgrade at SP? I really don't see how that can work out. Yes, you may be more optimistic about our prospects, but regardless, you're basing your contention hopes on just that- the hope that guys come into the league and are good, productive players. I prefer to look at the current situation, which is based in actual production and a knowledge of what you actually have and actually need while knowing that almost halfway through the season, the Brewers are in contention, need some pitching help to push them over the top, and then going out and filling the holes. At this point, you don't even have an idea of what the holes will be in 2012.

[TeeJayh1980]

How much of our pitching problems can be based on the pitching coach? My Dad keeps ragging on the new guy. Honestly I have no idea which is why I'm asking you guys.

[nate82]

How much of our pitching problems can be based on the pitching coach? My Dad keeps ragging on the new guy. Honestly I have no idea which is why I'm asking you guys.

Just about as much as you can put the blame on the batting coach. Which is about zero. Pitching and batting coaches are just scapegoats for frustration for fans in reality they don't have much of an impact on how well a pitcher pitches or how a hitter hits. A pitching coach or a hitting coach can only do so much to help the player out the player still needs to perform when pitching or hitting the coaches can't do that for them.

[NievesNoNO]

Really, Sell?? Wow, one forgettable series at the hands of a 1st place team in their ballpark and we should be ready to sell? Yes, the Brewers have some pitching issues and their hitting can be inconsistent at times but that can be said for about every team in the N.L., except maybe the Dodgers so far.

They're certainly not the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers, but they are good enough to make the play-offs. The Cards rotation is really no better off than the Brewers. When completely healthy the Cubs have the superior team, but as we sit right now they're still behind us.

I'd say buy. I understand that a play-off trip may hinge on Parra coming back and being as good as many think he can be or acquiring a Cliff Lee type, but I'd be willing to take that risk rather than sell and hope that we're in better shape 2-3 years from now.

There's definitely a time to sell but in my opinion this isn't one of those times.

[TheCrew07]

How could we have realistic playoff aspirations with Bush, Suppan, Looper as the only established pitchers, needing Parra to take a big step forward, and hoping Yo would last the season after not pitching last year?

 

All the more reason for you to get on board with upgrading our pitching situation at this point then, right?

Umm I've been arguing for a long term pitching solution for the better part of the last 3 years... this may be an "opportunity", but it's a very limited opportunity, and as I said I'm very uncomfortable with Yo's workload. If he becomes damaged goods I will never forgive Melvin or Macha for the way he's been handled this season.

 

And it's more cost effective to acquire a serious offensive Catcher (arguably the most valuable commodity in trade or FA) than it is to acquire an upgrade at SP? I really don't see how that can work out. Yes, you may be more optimistic about our prospects, but regardless, you're basing your contention hopes on just that- the hope that guys come into the league and are good, productive players. I prefer to look at the current situation, which is based in actual production and a knowledge of what you actually have and actually need while knowing that almost halfway through the season, the Brewers are in contention, need some pitching help to push them over the top, and then going out and filling the holes. At this point, you don't even have an idea of what the holes will be in 2012

Do we not have 2 offensive orientated catchers in our system right now? Why would we have to acquire one? A .750 ish OPS out of the C position would be a huge upgrade, both Salome and Lucroy are capable of that, I don't care which plays down the road. A settled in Gamel is a significant upgrade at 3B, a healthy Weeks with this year's attitude is an upgrade over what he's done in the past, as well. I see no good reason to be pessimistic about the future.

 

How is hoping Gamel works out any different than hoping Braun works out? The current situation doesn't suggest anything either way, so your knowledge and production is actually more a best guess on your part. Being in 1st place for an extended period of time didn't make this team a true 1st place team... there's a rather large gulf between the 2. A new pitcher may help, but how much is the real question. Pitching wise the Brewers haven't gotten any breaks this season other than Suppan stopping his slide, which was more than offset by the regressions of Bush, Looper, and Parra over the last month. There is still plenty of time left, and I'm not opposed to a Bedard deal for the right price, but I'm not into giving up talent of consequence trying to right a ship that may sink regardless. I'm not into wasting talent on a lost cause, which is still my biggest issue with the Linebrink move, and if Yo wears down this team is dead in the water regardless of another acquisition.

 

I've been beating the pitching drum forever, one of the few posters around here to do so, most people were more concerned with Hart's/Hall's production that than state of the rotation. With or without another SP this is a very average rotation talent wise, if Bush and Looper figure it out we might be in good shape, but I don't see how there's definitive proof either way. This team came into the season with too many unknowns, and most of those questions still remain unanswered at this time.

[PeaveyFury]

this may be an "opportunity", but it's a very limited opportunity

 

Again, I really don't see how 1.5 games back in the division and .5 games back in the wildcard halfway through the season can be considered a "limited opportunity". It just doesn't make sense.

 

Do we not have 2 offensive orientated catchers in our system right now?

 

Yes, though Lou Palmisano was an offensive oriented catcher in our system 3 or 4 years ago as well. And while Salome is an offensive oriented catcher, he still has a long way to go before he's even Mike Rivera's level behind the plate. We saw how well the '.750 OPS, limited defensively' catching thing went back in 2007....

How is hoping Gamel works out any different than hoping Braun works out?

 

Um, Braun is already producing at an All-Star caliber level, Gamel is not. Not sure why I have to clarify the difference there...

[TheCrew]

Step away from the ledge folks - still went .500 on the road trip. yes, the starting pitching is in a big slump right now - it's not as good as it was earlier this season, and it's not as bad as it's been this past week.

 

They do need to make a move for a pitcher though - I'm not gonna speculate on who that might be, but I suspect that Melvin is doing everything he can and it wouldn't shock me to see a move before the end of June or even within the next week.

 

You've also got to look at the schedule, if memory serves they have had one of the tougher schedules and have played 7 or 8 more games on the road than at home to date.

[brewmann04]

Lets see what the Next 3 weeks bring with a bunch of home games before we decide to sell.

[Invader3K]

I think some people are underrating our current players a bit due to the current slumps (both pitching and hitting). Looper, Suppan, and Bush should all eventually come back to being their usual average-ish selves. If Gallardo can hold out for most of the year, and if we can either get a decent return of Manny Parra, or trade for someone a step above the formerly mentioned average three starters, I think we can still contend, possibly even winning the division in the process.

[PeaveyFury]

Lets see what the Next 3 weeks bring with a bunch of home games before we decide to sell.

 

Exactly brewmann... if the team is several games back in mid-late July, then it's probably worth re-evaluating. If they're still in the middle of the race, it's a moot discussion.

[brewtank34]

About three weeks ago, we had one of the best pitching rotations and BP's in the league...we won 21 out of 26 games. I didn't hear too many people during that stretch saying that our pitching is weak and won't get us in the playoffs. It's funny how easy it is to forget the good times.

 

With that said however, I am very scared of our upcoming schedule: Minny, SF, NYM, CHC, STL, LAD. That my friends is a fearful schedule.

 

I personally see DM making a trade for a SP in the near future as well, and if it works out, and may be able to tread water until post all-star game. If this happens, I feel that we will have a shot at the WC. I just think that the Cubs and Cards are better (not by much obviously as we have been in 1st place for half the season.) than us all around. My fingers are crossed for the division though.

 

Post all star break is a welcoming schedule: Cincy, Pitt, Atl, Washington, SD, LAD. This could be an interesting summer indeed!

 

*on a side note to relate to my intro, I find it interesting that Macha is doing the exact same things with the line-up's and not playing small ball just like our past manager (can't say his name as I just ate dinner and I want to keep it in my stomach), but just because Macha is nicer in the media, many of us aren't chastising him. He's pretty much managing the same way X did (Macha manages the pitchers better though..no doubt!)

[brewtank34]

Lets see what the Next 3 weeks bring with a bunch of home games before we decide to sell.

 

that's a very good point Brewman. 15 out of our next 19 games to close out the 1st half are at home. Come on Crew! Let's do this!

[valpocrewsader]

Wow, one forgettable series at the hands of a 1st place team in their ballpark and we should be ready to sell?

Not fair... a 1-5 homestand against two very mediocre teams is barely a week old. It was nice to pick up three hard-fought wins in between there, but we gave up an average 8+ runs a game in that series. It's been a very rough month so far, losing almost 2 games for every 1 win. Parra going down makes the SP situation look pretty bleak. In my opinion, it'd be too early to pull the trigger on anything, but it's not a bad idea to start thinking about how selling might set us up better for the next few years.

[TheCrew07]

this may be an "opportunity", but it's a very limited opportunity

 

Again, I really don't see how 1.5 games back in the division and .5 games back in the wildcard halfway through the season can be considered a "limited opportunity". It just doesn't make sense.

 

Do we not have 2 offensive orientated catchers in our system right now?

 

Yes, though Lou Palmisano was an offensive oriented catcher in our system 3 or 4 years ago as well. And while Salome is an offensive oriented catcher, he still has a long way to go before he's even Mike Rivera's level behind the plate. We saw how well the '.750 OPS, limited defensively' catching thing went back in 2007....

How is hoping Gamel works out any different than hoping Braun works out?

 

Um, Braun is already producing at an All-Star caliber level, Gamel is not. Not sure why I have to clarify the difference there...

Palminsano tore up rookie ball and slowly slid into oblivion... that's a horrible comparison, and you're ducking the point... we have 2 players that between will be a significant upgrade at a position of need.

 

I wasn't talking about Braun today, I was talking about Braun in 2007. I have the exact same faith in Gamel as I did when Braun was called up, and I expect him to be an impact player down the road just like Braun. You're hung up on "these guys haven't done anything yet" which is my personal biggest pet peeve, it's the single most overused and meaningless argument against prospects out there. Will all prospects work out? Absolutely not, but you have to pick a side if you're a GM, fence riding gets you exactly where we are today, riding out Hardy and Fielder into FA with a very average rotation. Make no mistake, they aren't average because of the last 3 weeks, but because they simply have average talent. There's nothing wrong with that in the regular season, you'll still win plenty of ball games, I'm just not sold it works in playoff bsaeball when you're facing the best teams in the league game after game.

 

Again I think if you're DM you have to wait and see how things shake out into July, why dump any prospects to bail water on a sinking ship? The pitchers will turn it around (if not then there's nothing to discuss) but this is an awfully tough stretch of games, thankfully most of it comes at home, and I personally think this stretch before the all-star break will make or break the season. If you come out of it okay you make a move, if not then you don't. Either way I don't see the value in trying to move Hardy or Fielder in season, and DM is on the the record that the return for position players is better in the off season.

 

edit. Forgot to address the first point you made. It's a limited opportunity because the starting pitching is in shambles, and to be a serious threat they really need 2 pitchers instead of just 1. Parra failing thus far has hurt the team on a variety of different levels, they needed solid 1-2 punch in Yo and Parra, instead they have battling #1 and nothing of substance behind him. I was hoping if Parra struggled Bush would continue to improve, but he's horribly messed up at the moment and they are looking to push him back to give his arm some time. Right now the season truly hinges on Yo's ability to take the ball every 5th day and be effective late into games. If he runs out of gas and becomes injured or ineffective it's basically over, and if he gets injured it will be a collasal waste of talent. There's really not a good reason to Dusty Baker him just because "we're in the window", I'm very uncomfortable with his workload thus far. TB had every reason to push Price and in the end did what was best for the player, even against the player's own wishes, in effect protecting the player from himself. I would hope the Brewers woulld feel similarily about Yo...

[tyguy20204]

No, you don't sell when you're one game back in the division and leading in the Wildcard. The Brewers' record isn't an illusion, look at the run differential they're pretty close to where they should be at. I fully expect the pitching will get better through transactions and simply through regressing to career averages. I also fully expect J.J. will begin to hit like he's always hit, and Gamel will only improve.

 

Make no mistake, they aren't average because of the last 3 weeks, but because they simply have average talent. There's nothing wrong with that in the regular season, you'll still win plenty of ball games, I'm just not sold it works in playoff bsaeball when you're facing the best teams in the league game after game.

 

Just take a look at some of the recent Marlins/Cardinals teams, and even the Phillies from last year. You don't have to have the best talent to win the Series.

[PeaveyFury]

we have 2 players that between will be a significant upgrade at a position of need.

 

IF they pan out. Both guys are still a couple of YEARS away from Milwaukee. It's a virtual certainty that some of the guys coming up will NOT pan out, and all of our prospects, even the very top ones, have significant flaws in some aspect of their game. Some will come up and be as good or better than expected (like Braun and Fielder), while some will come up and disappoint (like Weeks, Parra, and whatever has happened to Hart).

 

I wasn't talking about Braun today, I was talking about Braun in 2007.

 

How is that relevant, then? I'm talking about what we know TODAY. We know to some reasonable degree what Braun is going to do this year--- we had no idea that he was going to have a historic rookie season (in a number of ways). If Braun (or Gamel) were banked on to produce and Braun hadn't panned out, we'd be in some major trouble right now as a franchise. Again, it's another reason to go for it now if we remain in it- we know what we have and where our issues are, we don't know what the future holds, despite your confidence that our prospects will turn out as well as can be. Look, I'm not saying we should trade ALL of our prospects to fill multiple holes in the rotation, just that if they're really lacking the '2' in the necessary 1-2 punch, that guys are out there to help. And if nothing else, there are guys out there that can at the very least upgrade the rotation to fill the hole left by Parra's ineffectiveness (like Doug Davis). If we're determined to stay in it, there is certainly opportunity to fix the issues in the rotation to make this team more likely to succeed this year.

 

you have to pick a side if you're a GM, fence riding gets you exactly where we are today, riding out Hardy and Fielder into FA with a very average rotation.

 

Exactly the point.... don't ride the fence, make some moves and go for it. You're seemingly "hung up on" thinking this team can't be a contender with the rotation the way it is--- again, then go out and make the move or two needed to push them into the playoffs. Why does it have to be 'we've got mediocre pitching now, so we should wait for 2011-2012'? I just don't understand that thinking- go out and make your pitching better than mediocre (which was my point in the first place)!

Again I think if you're DM you have to wait and see how things shake out into July, why dump any prospects to bail water on a sinking ship?

 

I think that's the general consensus from those in the thread that aren't posting in a reactionary manner to the last couple weeks of play, so we're on the same page there.

[TheCrew]

Not fair... a 1-5 homestand against two very mediocre teams is barely a week old. It was nice to pick up three hard-fought wins in between there, but we gave up an average 8+ runs a game in that series. It's been a very rough month so far, losing almost 2 games for every 1 win. Parra going down makes the SP situation look pretty bleak. In my opinion, it'd be too early to pull the trigger on anything, but it's not a bad idea to start thinking about how selling might set us up better for the next few years.

If your gonna say someone isn't fair, then you should at least be fair. Colorado won 5 in a row coming into the series and ended up winning 11 straight - They are 16-1 over their past 17 games.

 

The sox is a series that should have been won, they let the sunday game slip away from them..... but as they say, you can't win them all.

 

If they can land a front of the line starter (Lee or Bedard) they become the clear front runners in the division - this entire thread is a knee jerk reaction to a bad series on the road..... it's baseball, it happens, it's a long season and even the best of the best teams lose series and get swept. That being said, I do think the brewer need to acquire an above average arm if they plan on playing post season baseball this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

How much of our pitching problems can be based on the pitching coach? My Dad keeps ragging on the new guy.

 

Bill Castro has been in Milwaukee longer than beer has.

[logan82]

How much of our pitching problems can be based on the pitching coach? My Dad keeps ragging on the new guy.

 

Bill Castro has been in Milwaukee longer than beer has.

I guess it would be more correct to call Doug Melvin the new guy than Bill Castro.

[Team Canada]

This thread couldn't have waited until we actually *were* out of it?

 

Maybe things will go downhill the next couple weeks and we'll be well back of the division and WC. Or maybe things will be roughly status quo and this conversation will still be irrelevant. Regardless, Melvin is most assuredly not thinking about selling right now.

 

As you said JB, "if the team is out of it isn't it a perfect time to let Escobar get used to major league pitching?"

 

The team is not out of it, and your premise is false. You say you're not trying to be negative, but I'm not sure why you would start a thread advocating the Brewers should sell when they *are* still in it.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The Brewers are in the bottom half of the league in both pitching ERA and batting average. The most glaring problem is starting pitching, but their inconsistent offense is right behind but there isn't much to do with it.

 

Pitching / defense is right at the league average: 4.62 r/g allowed vs league average of 4.57. Our offense is fourth in the league with 4.77 r/g.

 

While we're this close to the race, I would be astonished to see them sell off key players for minor leaguers. I could see a 'reconfiguration' trade, though...that's more Melvin's style anyway.