Sell, sell, sell?

[Darnell Junior]

We have a few days left until the break, so if we're going to make a trade Melvin and Co. would have to decide pretty soon here. I don't want to be viewed as a pessimist here because I truly am not. I just think it's the right time. We are 2 games under .500, and we're lucky to have as many wins as that based on our pythagorean W-L. We have 2 gaping holes in our rotation, black hole position players at C, SS, and CF. We are 4.5 back in the division with 3 teams ahead of us, and 5 games back in the Wild Card with 6 teams ahead of us. By my rough estimate, for us to have a legitimate chance of the playoffs we would need about 89 wins (very generously). That means from here on out we would need to go 39-23 at a bare minimum. For a team that is on the verge of losing 3 or God forbid 4 at home to the Washington Nationals (Road Record: 12-35) I honestly do not see that happening.

 

We have a few pieces that could be used, especially in the seller's market we're dealing with here. Cameron is the most obvious choice. Hoffman could reasonably bring back a decent prospect. I don't really like the idea of selling so low on Hardy or Hart, but I can't say I would be upset if I read in the paper tomorrow that we flipped one or both of them.

 

My only fear would be a massive drop in attendance if we were to start selling, but I don't think it would be too great as long as we still had Gallardo, Braun, and Fielder.

 

Thoughts?

[TooLiveBrew]

As poorly as the pitching has performed of late, Melvin is right. One SP could change things drastically, as long as it's not someone like Washburn. The team is 5 games behind the Wild Card lead & 4 games behind the NL Central lead. I think the frustration is clouding that right now.

 

Will one SP be 'worth' 3 wins from 7/28/09 through the end of the season? Incredibly unlikely. However, with plenty of games remaining against the teams the Brewers are chasing, the season is anything but over. Suppan has been below replacement level this season (iirc) anyway, so his injury could actually work out to be a blessing in disguise.

 

I think one topic that had to have been discussed at length is whether or not Bush will be able to return soon. If he can, and you add a SP like say Cliff Lee, your 1-4 is Gallardo/[Lee]/Bush/Parra, which is pretty darn solid.

[clancyphile]

At the same time - how do the Brewers avoid giving up a prospect for a half-season rental?

 

It may be time to look at the prospects and make some calls as to who will be the replacements at positions like third base and catcher. Does the Crew commit to Gamel or Green at the hot corner? Will Salome or Lucroy be the primary catcher? Make the call now, and deal the one who won't be the starter.

 

Gamel and Hall could net the Crew Harang and Volquez from Cincinnati. Salome might be able to net another pitcher or two. And the Crew would still bring very solid players at third and catcher with Green and Lucroy.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Gamel and Hall could net the Crew Harang and Volquez from Cincinnati. Salome might be able to net another pitcher or two. And the Crew would still bring very solid players at third and catcher with Green and Lucroy.

Hall has a negetive value in a trade. Any player by themselves is worth more than if you include Hall. Also, you're overvaluing our prospects a bit. No way could we get Volquez and Harang for Gamel.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

I think one topic that had to have been discussed at length is whether or not Bush will be able to return soon. If he can, and you add a SP like say Cliff Lee, your 1-4 is Gallardo/[Lee]/Bush/Parra, which is pretty darn solid.

According to Tom Verducci of SI, Cliff Lee is less likely to be traded than Halladay. Cleveland really isn't that motivated. However, if they do it will require a package similar to what Toronto is asking for Halladay. Thats a lot to give up for a rotation that I still wouldn't classify as pretty darn solid. If the organization is willing to do that, I hope their willing to pay a hefty price to keep this roster together because they may not have replacements ready by 2011.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lee was just an example I used in place of a mediocre SP like Washburn. Part of the problem for Melvin this year (& honestly something that just gets glossed over by many, instead choosing to blame Melvin for not getting pitching) is that several SP injuries really complicated the trade market.

 

 

I think we all have a gut feeling that Mark A is this way

 

I know for a fact we all don't feel this way. Just because it gets repeated as conjecture on internet message boards doesn't mean much. Mark A. actually is pretty candid about letting his baseball guys do their thing. The Suppan contract is way overstated, as clearly Mark was on board... but so was Melvin & his staff.

[JoeHova]

If the organization is willing to do that, I hope their willing to pay a hefty price to keep this roster together because they may not have replacements ready by 2011.

This is the key. If the team is willing to divest itself of prospects year after year, they have to be ready to pay big money to keep Prince and Rickie and Yovani and so forth. It's a shame, I was so looking forward to this era of Brewers baseball and now it seems like it's pretty much over, with lackluster results. I guess it's too soon to say that, but I have a bad feeling about the next couple days.

[adambr2]

just a Question any chance the kid that palys CF in Nashville have any potential?

I'm assuming you are talking about Jason Bourgeois. I don't know much about him other than he's 27 yrs old and has bounced around the minors his entire career. He got his first big league experience last year with the White Sox. Doesn't walk much for a lead-off hitter, but doesn't strike out much either. Good stats this year in AAA but I have no idea how that would translate to the big leagues. He'll probably be a September call-up this year.

He's basically Tony Gwynn Jr, without the fanfare because his name is Jason Bourgeois.

[craigharmann]

The more I've thought about it, here's what I'd do for this season. Trade Hardy for young starting pitching, and call up Escobar. Trade Hoffman, and make Coffey the closer. Trade either Cam or Hart and call up Katin to play right. If anyone wants Hall or Lopez, great. Make Gamel the starting third baseman the rest of the year, and Counsell and McGehee can platoon at 2nd. That way, the young guys get their playing time and audition to see what we've got in them. That way, we can trade for pitching, pitching, pitching to bridge the gap until the young guns in A ball and lower are ready.

[RU Rah Rah]

The more I've thought about it, here's what I'd do for this season. Trade Hardy for young starting pitching, and call up Escobar. Trade Hoffman, and make Coffey the closer. Trade either Cam or Hart and call up Katin to play right. If anyone wants Hall or Lopez, great. Make Gamel the starting third baseman the rest of the year, and Counsell and McGehee can platoon at 2nd. That way, the young guys get their playing time and audition to see what we've got in them. That way, we can trade for pitching, pitching, pitching to bridge the gap until the young guns in A ball and lower are ready.

I don't know much about Katin, but I'm ok with the overall premise here, especially as it relates to Gamel.

[naivin]

I would definitely try to trade Hardy for pitching. That is an easy enough sell, because most fans have heard of Escobar and can get excited about him as the SS of the future (Heck, the way Hardy has played, he might be an upgrade). I love Cameron, but I think he probably has the most value, if you could send him to the Yankees for some pitching as well, do it. I'd even be ok letting Gerrut ride out the string to see if he has any use beyond this year.

[chadomac]

Katin is not on the same level as Gamel and Escobar. I agree that it would be nice to get Gamel/Escobar some playing time this year so they're not completely green in 2010 when we need them to start... but you can leave Katin out of that plan. There's very little chance he'll amount to much of anything, in my opinion.

 

I think you sell Hardy for pitching, and if the right offer comes along you stay open to dealing Weeks and/or Hart as well... but I don't think those two need to go unless the right pitching comes along.

 

This team needs to get pitching from somewhere - for this year and the future. 2-3 starters are definitely needed.

[Invader3K]

"This team needs to get pitching from somewhere - for this year and the future. 2-3 starters are definitely needed."

 

Exactly...which is why I wonder if the time to do that is now. If Melvin waits and tries to do it during the off-season, and fails to get a top tier pitcher again, he should be fired.

[rotoherb]

I'm going to call my shot right now...

 

 

Hardy will get traded in the offseason to the Orioles in a deal for one of their young pitchers, not a top tier guy, but a young starter, probably something similar to the Overbay/Bush deal. The Orioles are desperate for a SS, have a plethora of young starting pitching, and have the ability to resign JJ if they wanted.

[Weirdos19]

Why wouldn't the Brewers make that trade now? Escobar is ready and waiting, and it would be better for chemistry purposes to get new guys familiar with each other this year. In Baltimore and Milwaukee.

 

Put me on board with this. I would love one of Baltimore's young pitchers.

[SeriesFinale]

Yeah, I agree. With the way the starters have been pitching it doesn't make a lot of sense to wait on any account unless they're just trying to let JJ build up some value.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's good speculation, rotoherb. Hardy is still young enough to fit in well with Baltimore's rebuild efforts. I recall thinking highly of several trades they've made recently, but don't ask me which ones aside from the Bedard deal. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Stating the obvious, Hardy would get the most value going to a team that could re-sign him. The O's certainly fit that bill.

[NievesNoNO]

Really, Sell?? Wow, one forgettable series at the hands of a 1st place team in their ballpark and we should be ready to sell? Yes, the Brewers have some pitching issues and their hitting can be inconsistent at times but that can be said for about every team in the N.L., except maybe the Dodgers so far.....

 

There's definitely a time to sell but in my opinion this isn't one of those times.

Sadley, I stand corrected. Cameron would definately have some value to somebody. Trade him with the requirement to take Hall for a low level prospect. Maybe we could do the same with Hardy and Suppan. I'm only half kidding, I don't suppose any team would go for that. Coffey would have some value as well as Hoffman. Hart probably has more value right now than he will this off-season considering averageish outfielders our pretty easy to come by through free agency.

 

I guess we can't deal everyone we still need to field a team. Seriously, if there were any legit offers for young pitching I would be considering it. The good news is we still have a very young and talented offensive group and one stud starting pitcher.

[804Sox]

I'm going to call my shot right now...

 

 

Hardy will get traded in the offseason to the Orioles in a deal for one of their young pitchers, not a top tier guy, but a young starter, probably something similar to the Overbay/Bush deal. The Orioles are desperate for a SS, have a plethora of young starting pitching, and have the ability to resign JJ if they wanted.

Just don't count on that young pitcher being Matusz or Tillman. Arrieta's probably a longshot, but Erbe might work.

[LouisEly]

In the words of Randolph & Mortimer Duke... "SELL!! SELL!!! SELL!!!"

 

1) Kendall (Salome/Corporan can step in)

2) Counsell (infield is crowded anyway - Iribarren/Heether can fill in)

3) Hoffman?

 

This is of course assuming no one wants Suppan or Hall. The Washburn for Weeks rumor is very interesting though... it would strengthen the team without subtracting anything as Weeks is out for the year. I would want a prospect thrown in there as Weeks was just starting to break out.

 

I think they will get more value for Hardy/Hart in the offseason, but if they can get enough pitching for either one I'd be fine with the trade.

[Never Outhustled]

The obvious guy to sell would be Felipe Lopez. We never needed him in the 1st place. The Giants and Twins are after Freddy Sanchez. Lopez is just as good as him. I'll take an MLB ready reliever, no experience necessary.

[Hate those Rodents]

Sanchez was just traded for Alderson, another good pickup for the Pirates.

 

I'll tell you guys what, the Pirates are coming and they'll be here real quick. Maybe a .500 team next year before they really take off. Dare I say, if Doug can't figure out this jigsaw puzzle (aka being willing to sell when it's time, know when to sell high, know who to trade for, etc.) we will be rooting for the fifth place team in the NL Central sooner than most of us ever planned.

[Never Outhustled]

How will the Pirates be a .500 team next year? They didn't get big league talent, they didn't even get AAA guys. They will be awful next year. Could they start to get better in 3 years? Sure, depending on how many of these B list prospects turn out.

 

I will agree though that Alderson is a very impressive pickup. I'd happily have given Lopez and a prospect for him.

[YoungGeezy]

How will the Pirates be a .500 team next year? They didn't get big league talent, they didn't even get AAA guys. They will be awful next year. Could they start to get better in 3 years? Sure, depending on how many of these B list prospects turn out.

 

I will agree though that Alderson is a very impressive pickup. I'd happily have given Lopez and a prospect for him.

completely agree, no way the Pirates aren't competing for last place next season. After they have traded all their experienced vets for guys who are still a year or 2 away, they really don't have much. They have potential to be a good young team in 2011 or 2012 but they are just so young and raw right now.

 

It's to bad for them that they maybe have the worst scouts and crosscheckers or just front office in the league causing them to make mistake after mistake in the draft. McCutchen and Alvarez were good picks but after that they haven't done a good job stocking their system. They trade for good ones but its a 2 way street and to compete you need to draft good also.