Bush Admits to Arm Fatigue (Latest: Dave to DL; Burns recalled... reply #38 / rehab start July 15.. reply #55)

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/48690467.html

[BadgerFan]

I smell a trip to the DL.

[GB12]

And who would take his place? We don't have the pitchers to replace both him and Parra.

[pete]

He stunk against the Twins and I believe that was 2 games before his arm was struck. He hasn't been good since. It makes a nice story line and works better than he's stinking it up. I can't believe that people talk about him as a number 2 starter.

 

Give Mike Burns, Nick Green, Mark DiFelice, Chris Cody and whoever a tryout in his spot in the rotation. Whoever steps up gets the job.

[owbc]

Obviously this is a big, big problem. The most important thing is that he's healthy down the stretch, so a trip to the DL might be the best thing right now. Parra was coming back anyway. The bullpen is logging way too many innings. Melvin has options--we could go with Dillard or maybe look outside the organization.

 

I still consider Bush to be the #2 starter behind Gallardo. However, Suppan's numbers are actually the second best out of the starters so far.

[JJHardy7]

I still consider Bush to be the #2 starter behind Gallardo. However, Suppan's numbers are actually the second best out of the starters so far.

Wait...I thought Suppan was terrible, garbage, waste of space, etc. He has a purpose? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I'm not saying he's a stud...I am saying guys like Suppan have value. It's just too bad for us that he was a free agent a few years ago and we didn't sign him this past off-season. He may have been just...a bit cheaper.

I'm starting to get the feeling that this team is pitching back to norms. I think they have to make a trade in order to compete the rest of the year. I know much has been made in the national media that Sheets and CC (who was only here less than half the year...media forgets that) made the team so great. Yo didn't play last year and he replaces one of the guys. Well...to me that was a stretch to begin with in terms of expectations. Yo could equal Sheets, but there's no way I can think Yo can pitch 200 innings and always be studly. Combine that with Parra's problems, Bush's issues, and other inconsistencies and I feel we have a major problem on our hands. We don't have another 'Yo' in AAA. I also don't want to trade Gamel or Escobar for a rental type guy. I'm thinking the Brewers may have to sign a free agent or call up a player lower than AAA and roll the dice. A guy like Chris Cody might deserve a chance given the circumstances.

[PrinceEatMeat]

At this point, who could honestly be worse than Bush, Parra, and Looper have been lately?

[Ennder]

At this point, who could honestly be worse than Bush, Parra, and Looper have been lately?

Jonathon Sanchez, Fausto Carmona, Brandon Backe, Ervin Santana, Eric Stultz, Dontrelle Willis, Matt Harrison, Jorge De La Rosa, Chad Gaudin, Derek Holland, Rich Harden, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Redding, Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Berken, Chris Volstad, Johan Santana, Kyle Daviez, Barry Zito, Tom Gorzelanny, Josh Greer, Casey Janssen, Bill Buckner, Matt Maloney, Brett Anderson, Brett Tomko, Paul Maholm, Kris Medlen, Brian Moehler, Brian Bannister, Ricky Nolasko, David Huff, Tim Wakefield, Ross Ohlendorf, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Sonnastine, Francisco Liriano, John Lackey, Jeff Weaver, Armando Galarraga, Rich Hill, Jerremy Guthrie, Ross Detwiler.

 

Those are the starters with an ERA over 5.50 over the past 30 days. Just keep that in mind before you freak out over a slump for our known to be mediocre rotation. All of these guys are in the same general range as our slumping pitchers.

[endaround]

Suppan has been as bad as everyone else. He's just been luckier.

 

XFIP: Looper 4.52, Bush 4.86, Parra 4.94, Suppan 5.12

 

Now I personally think that while HR rates are more volatile they still have value so FIP: Parra 5.10, Looper 5.51, Suppan 5.52, Bush 5.87

 

Bush is the only one who you can somewhat expect to outperform his xFIP/FIP but his HR rate has to return to normal. The big question is why have the Brewer's pitcher been giving up so many HRs?

[pete]

XFIP proves that Bush has been unlucky? How many FIPs are there?

 

It makes for interesting discussion to use yet another metric to add to the dozens that exist. Drawing definitive conclusions from it, I'm not so sure. But records aside, Suppan appears to be pitching fairly well lately. Location is probably the biggest factor. Bush has been throwing soft pitches up in the SZ, often on the inner half. Its one thing to have a guy golf a ball near his shins the way the Indians did to DiFelice and another to have Miggy Cabrera take a BP swing on a BP pitch.

[JohnBriggs12]

And who would take his place? We don't have the pitchers to replace both him and Parra.

Sure they do. They currently have 8 arms in the bullpen. One of those (likely McClung) will be summoned to start. After that, the next one depends on which route they choose to go. They could go the minor league veteran route in Burns. His numbers at AAA and in his one appearence are worthy of a shot. They could also try to pull the plug on a deal now which may be hard to do but not impossible. Or they could go the route that was commonly used back in the day. For lack of a better term, lets call it "give a kid a chance". That is, take a guy who ideally you'd like to have develop longer in the minors and give him a shot now. Butler, 24, and Cody, 25 aren't kids, but both have performed well this season.

Anundsen, by all accounts is 2 years away but on track to be a major league pitcher. He throws strikes. Maybe give him an early shot. A lot of you will scoff at this last option but I suggest you look back at some great pitchers. Catfish Hunter was barely 19 when he came to the majors in the 60's. That wasn't all that uncommon back then.

[lukevan]

Of course they have bodies to take Bush's place. Doesn't mean they're going to make this team better.

 

Doug is likely going to have to trade for Erik Bedard.

[Invader3K]

Of course they have bodies to take Bush's place. Doesn't mean they're going to make this team better.

 

Doug is likely going to have to trade for Erik Bedard.

 

It's been obvious this team was going to need another (good) starting pitcher from the get-go. I wish they would have just gotten one before the season started, but of course that wasn't going to happen for whatever financial reasons. Now this team is in a desperate bind for a starting pitcher, and if Bedard is the only decent option available, that's fine with me. In the meantime, I would give guys like Dillard and Burns a chance.

[endaround]

No one said Bush has been unlucky. He's given up a ton of home runs but home runs are only partially controlled by a pitcher. xFIP assumes a normal home run rate. As you can see all 4 have home run rates higher than normal and for Looper its really shocking because over his career he's been below average with home runs.

 

The Brewers could have gotten a better ptcther but they signed Looper for $6m now they'll end up paying like $4-6m for another pitcher for half a year.

[pete]

Well, saying Suppan has been pitching about the same but has been luckier sounds to me like you are saying that the others mentioned have had less luck. I'll pass on parsing beyond that.

[kramnoj]

Doug is likely going to have to trade for Erik Bedard.

 

He's going to have to wait until Bedard is available. With the Mariners only 3.5 GB, that time isn't yet. Rotation issues will probably have to be solved internally for a few weeks.

[Invader3K]

The Brewers could have gotten a better ptcther but they signed Looper for $6m .

 

Like who? I hear this proffered all the time, but no one suggests any pitcher who was on the market who was actually any better than Looper, that the Brewers had a realistic chance to sign.

[endaround]

Not sure how pointing out Suppan has been lucky means everyone else is super unlucky. Suppan has pitched as poorly as everyone else its just not shown up in his ERA.

[pete]

Those are the starters with an ERA over 5.50 over the past 30 days. Just keep that in mind before you freak out over a slump for our known to be mediocre rotation. All of these guys are in the same general range as our slumping pitchers.

 

Since his May 24 start against the Twins, Bushy's ERA has been over 9.00. Even after just checking it at BR, that number is so high I feel like I should go back and double check, but I know if I'm wrong I'll find out about it. How many of the Jeff Weavers and Chad Gaudins match that number?

[pete]

I don't agree that Suppan has pitched as poorly. I find that a rather bold argument.

[Invader3K]

I think Suppan has done about what could be reasonably expected lately. He's not really the major problem right now...he's pitching like the #5 pitcher we expected. The problem is we have a very young and relatively inexperienced #1, along with three #5 pitchers at this point. With Bush possibly going to the DL, we're really left with three viable starting pitchers. I guess we can look forward to Seth McClung leaving the bullpen or something, with how it seems like Doug Melvin is just sitting on his hands in regard to this problem.

[kramnoj]

The Brewers could have gotten a better ptcther but they signed Looper for $6m now they'll end up paying like $4-6m for another pitcher for half a year.

 

The first part is questionable, and the second part doesn't really apply to Looper since Parra is the one being replaced at this point.

[PrinceEatMeat]

At this point, who could honestly be worse than Bush, Parra, and Looper have been lately?

Jonathon Sanchez, Fausto Carmona, Brandon Backe, Ervin Santana, Eric Stultz, Dontrelle Willis, Matt Harrison, Jorge De La Rosa, Chad Gaudin, Derek Holland, Rich Harden, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Redding, Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Berken, Chris Volstad, Johan Santana, Kyle Daviez, Barry Zito, Tom Gorzelanny, Josh Greer, Casey Janssen, Bill Buckner, Matt Maloney, Brett Anderson, Brett Tomko, Paul Maholm, Kris Medlen, Brian Moehler, Brian Bannister, Ricky Nolasko, David Huff, Tim Wakefield, Ross Ohlendorf, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Sonnastine, Francisco Liriano, John Lackey, Jeff Weaver, Armando Galarraga, Rich Hill, Jerremy Guthrie, Ross Detwiler.

 

Those are the starters with an ERA over 5.50 over the past 30 days. Just keep that in mind before you freak out over a slump for our known to be mediocre rotation. All of these guys are in the same general range as our slumping pitchers.

I'm well aware of this, I meant within our organization to take Parra's spot, and Bush's spot if he needs to be skipped or put on the DL. I'm not freaking out. I'm just trying to say that anyone that we call up from the minors to take a few starts for the time being couldn't really be a whole lot worse then those 3 have been lately.

[Never Outhustled]

JJHardy7 wrote:

A guy like Chris Cody might deserve a chance given the circumstances.

I agree, and will even take it further, he deserves an oppurtunity under any circunstance. He has a career 2.12 ERA. He's at 2.14 this year. He doesn't walk anyone, he pitches to contact, so he would benefit from the Brewers strong defense. Most teams wish they had a pitcher this productive waiting in the wings

[yount19.u]

JJHardy7 wrote:

A guy like Chris Cody might deserve a chance given the circumstances.

I agree, and will even take it further, he deserves an oppurtunity under any circunstance. He has a career 2.12 ERA. He's at 2.14 this year. He doesn't walk anyone, he pitches to contact, so he would benefit from the Brewers strong defense. Most teams wish they had a pitcher this productive waiting in the wings

Wow. I've heard many bring up his name, but I've never looked into his stats. He doesn't walk many or give up many home runs. He would not be any worse than Parra/Bush/Looper right now, so I ask why wouldn't the team call him up? Has anyone who's seen Cody pitch think something in his game would not translate well to the bigs? I still hope the team will make a trade, but this guy can't be all that bad as a 5th starter -- at least on paper.