Brewers still in the Lieber Sweepstakes?

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

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They wanted Capuono and Hall for Rios, Jason Frasor, Romero.

 

Talk about dellusional!

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Dellusions have sustained us Brewer fans for 15 years.

[Never Outhustled]

TSN reported, for what its worth, that the A's turned down an offer of Rios for Blanton. I'd have a hard time believing Blanton is worth more than Capuano, considering Blantons weight issues. If that really happened, I think the A's really missed out on a great deal for them.

[UWRyan428]

Blanton is beginning to look more like Jason Marquis than Jeremy Bonderman.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"TSN reported, for what its worth, that the A's turned down an offer of Rios for Blanton. I'd have a hard time believing Blanton is worth more than Capuano, considering Blantons weight issues"

 

Nice "bring" to the conversation, X.

 

IF this report is on the money, then a 26-year-old Blanton, who makes every start, with a middling W/L record and an ERA in the mid-to-upper 4's is what Toronto would seek for Rios, then isn't Dave Bush that same guy?

 

True, the Blue Jays already gave up once on Bush, but what if they parted with him reluctantly in the Overbay deal? I'd say do it immediately! And if they don't want Bush back, then can we substitute a Villanueva, and force them to take Mench, Jenkins or Clark for some salary relief.

 

It helps to gain some perspective as to what Toronto would want for Rios, again, if this report can be fully trusted.

 

We still have a gaping outfield hole. I still want Rios!

[M Skjellyfetti]

I think that Bush should be about as untouchable as anyone on this team right now. Because of the fact that his mainstream stats (ERA, W, etc) didn't match his awesome peripherals last year, I see no way Doug could get fair value for him. Bush will very likely be the Brewers' 2nd best starter when all is said and done next year, and I really don't want to give that up for a 26 year old who doesn't get on base too well, not to mention the fact that he didn't know how to slug until last year. Sure, he's young enough for that to have been because of added muscle/experience and stuff, but I don't think .500 is his natural slugging "ability," so he is due for a letdown next year, IMO.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I think that Bush should be about as untouchable as anyone on this team right now. Because of the fact that his mainstream stats (ERA, W, etc) didn't match his awesome peripherals last year, I see no way Doug could get fair value for him. Bush will very likely be the Brewers' 2nd best starter when all is said and done next year, and I really don't want to give that up for a 26 year old who doesn't get on base too well, not to mention the fact that he didn't know how to slug until last year. Sure, he's young enough for that to have been because of added muscle/experience and stuff, but I don't think .500 is his natural slugging "ability," so he is due for a letdown next year, IMO. "

 

I understand about the lack of fair value for Boosh in a trade. And I'm not singling you out specifically, M J Skelly...etc., but taking off the Brewer goggles for a second, wouldn't it be possible that one of OUR young players, like a Dave Boosh, can regress, as you predict Rios will?

 

Too often, loyal Brewer fans such as yourself will predict improvement from every nugget we have, simply because they're a year older and more experienced, therefore they won't hit the wall this year. Hell, I fell into that trap myself when I expected more success from a Ben Hendricksen, from Nick Neugebauer...I nearly predicted a Hall Of Fame career from Cal Eldred! So I can be just as guilty of this as anyone here.

 

But when a player from another team unexectedly improves, especially one whom we'd have to part with a Plus Arm With a High Ceiling to acquire, his advancements are marginalized and often dismissed as a fluke. Josh Barfield, Erik Bedard, Chris Duncan step up in their early careers, and to varying degrees, their capabilities are doubted/called into question as unsustainable, while Hardy, Braun, Hart, Gallardo, etc. are all projected/counted on to be stars.

 

Last year, Boosh's peripherals WERE solid. But what if scouting reports notice a tip to his pitches, hitters start getting more used to him, or (very plausible, given our luck) he gets hurt? It's just as possible as Rios falling short of the pace he established in 2006, right?

 

We already have a solid rotation, (we can pencil in Villanueva to improve in '07, http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) so we can spare one of our 8 starting pitchers, especially when we have a crater in the # 3 hole in the batting order, and he's an inexpensive young-ish outfielder, to boot.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Personally I would say that Capuono or Bush or Villenueve (+prospect/s) for Rios would be a good deal. I like Bushes upside and am infatuated with his secondary numbers but Rios has amazing potential and showed it when healthy last year.

[sbrylski]

I agree with M Skjellyfetti about Bush, and I understand the point Geno is making. However I'll take the trending upward starting pitcher over the somewhat out-of-nowhere Alexis Rios. He had a some very good stretches last year, and I know he was recovering from his injury, but his OPS was just .865. Highish BABIP despite a fairly consistent LD%.

 

I guess I'm just a little less convinced with Rios than I am with Bush. I just have a hard time finding a weak spot in his game. Maybe that's homerism, I don't know, but I'd also take the starting pitcher over the outfielder almost everytime.

[M Skjellyfetti]

I'll admit right away that I know nothing about batting "peripheral" stats, so I have no solid idea on whether Rios was lucky last year or just put it all together. But when looking at his stats, I saw a monster increase in slugging percentage. As a rule, a .119 point slugging increase tends to be pretty tough to replicate the next year. He is young, so I don't doubt he improved, but I just feel that it's very likely that some luck or overachievement occurred last year. Somewhat arbitrarily, I'll throw out about a .450 for his natural slugging ability last year. It seems fair, it is still a large increase from the year before, yet it is more believable for a young guy. Assuming he improves again this year, but not by quite as much (he's getting into the prime years, and it's pretty unreal to project him to improve by a ton again), I'd give him another .025 points in the slugging department. On the other side, he still hasn't shown he can take a walk, so I expect his OBP to be about 40-50 points above his batting average. I'll give him the .300 that he hit last year, so an OBP of about .350 next year. That creates an amazing .825 OPS. Granted, this "study" was not scientific at all, but I could see dumb luck making it fairly accurate. Looking at his other stats, give him 20 home runs (3 more than last year) and 15 stolen bases at a little above the break-even rate, and you have another mediocre bat to throw into our outfield mess. If you're an RBI fan, throw in the 82 that he had last year, and he's almost exactly equal to Jenkins, Mench, etc. He has played some CF, but very little, so I don't know how well he could hack it there, but playing CF would make him more valuable. At the end of the day, why do we need another Jenkins/Mench/Corey Hart when we already have them on our team?

 

EDIT: What Sam said. I would rather have a guy clearly on a rising trend than a guy who exploded out of nowhere. It seems like a lot safer bet.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I guess I'm just a little less convinced with Rios than I am with Bush. I just have a hard time finding a weak spot in his game. Maybe that's homerism, I don't know, but I'd also take the starting pitcher over the outfielder almost everytime. "

 

Fair enough, Sam, and it WAS polite to acknowledge your own possible homerism!

 

Every winter, squirrels hoard acorns, and Doug hoards as many Plus Arms with High Celings as he can get.

 

It comes down to need for me, I guess. I see a ton of pitchers we're stockpiling, a possibly available righty bat we need to bat 3rd, and I envision a Love Connection. I know it's not that simple, but we have 1, 2 or 3 Joe Blantons around, and hope DM can find a match with Toronto.

 

I look at Bush, and here's what I see:

 

With the Blue Jays in 2005, he wins 5 and loses 11 (not really important, I know, but it IS bad). He pitches to a 4.49 ERA (meh!). He turns in a solid 1.26 WHIP (encouraging), but he averages only 5.58 innings per start. *yawn*

 

In '06 here, the WHIP stays low (1.14 - outstanding!). The record? With the Brewers run support, I don't expect much. But the ERA? It's nearly the same (4.41) and I would wish for less than the 26 HRs he surrendered.

 

He's no longer an up-n-coming young prospect, at age 27, so to me, he's an OK # 3 starter, which is fine.

 

But again, it comes back to need. We already have Sheets, Capuano, Soup Can, Vargas and perhaps Villanueva as starters, so we can afford to trade a rotation member for a guy who looks like he's beginning to "get it" at the major league level.

 

Rios is only 25, has a strong arm, plays solid defense, and his numbers were much better as an offensive player than Bush's were as a pitcher...and right now, we need an offensive player more. Just my opinion...

[JohnBriggs12]

To expand on Geno's point, aren't the Brewers going to be faced with a decision between Bush and Capuano at some point in the next couple years anyway?

 

Having a backloaded deal with Suppan virtually guarantees (barring a trade of Suppan), no new contract with Sheets in 2009, and a long term deal for just one of the Bush, Capuano duo.

 

Are they going to get better return than Rios when they are forced to move a pitcher?

 

I suggested Capuano because they already had Bush once. That some Blue Jay fans want more is to be expected but are they being realistic? The Jays are on record as wanting a replacement for Lilly. Who out there is closer to Lilly than Capuano? We could give them more in either Jenkins or Mench or both too for an extra prospect (that young arm Melvin always gets).

[endaround]

How does getting Rios solve the payroll problem? He's has the same amount of service time as Bush.

[sbrylski]

I probably could have predicted Geno's and Briggs' back-to-back posts, not that its a bad thing. Its totally understandable that the traditionalist crowd would be somewhat skeptical of Bush and view him as an "okay #3". Being presented only with the numbers in Geno's post I would be hard pressed not to agree. But here's what the saber crowd would site as reasons why he could be or already is so much more:

 K/9 BB/9 K/BB WHIP BAA OPS G/F ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2005 4.95 1.91 2.59 1.25 .269 .780 1.37 2006 7.11 1.63 4.37 1.14 .252 .717 1.44 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Rank 25th 8th 4th 7th 21st 26th 24th

The rankings are from 2006 and are out of the entire MLB! I believe this shows that Dave Bush is already one of the 25 best pitchers in the league and getting better. DiPS ranks him 23rd, though that probably means little to Geno and Briggs. In comparison, Capuano is just behind at 25th and Blanton is a bit further down the list at 38th.

 

Of course, the answer a traditionalist could spit back would be that despite the excellent peripheral stats he still gave up 4.41 runs per nine, and that's simply a difference of opinion and a different way to look at it. But no matter how you value peripheral stats, they have to at least look encouraging.

 

Here's a link to FanGraphs.com comparison charts set up to compare Bush to Capuano and Carpenter. Those three are quite similar looking at the season to season graphs, but looking at the age graphs make Bush seem even better.

[dadofandrew]

Well, according to others, there are about 5 #1 SP's and 15 #2 SP's in MLB, so those designations mean little, as they come with no standards other than casual wins and name recognition.

 

Bush is an above average SP at this point, and he's near his peak. Can't get much better than that.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Well, to me at least, there are exactly 30 #1 SPs and 30 # 2 SPs in the majors! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

And Sam, these ARE compelling, argument-changing numbers you threw out to us. Honest! (Except for the DIPS part) But to me, they show Boosh as a # 2 type, which makes me happy.

 

But still, I want Alex Rios. We have 6 somewhat capable SPs, Toronto wants a capable SP (hell, they'll even take a Blanton for Rios!) and if the Blue Jays don't want Boosh back/we shouldn't send him back, then is there someone else who's just as Blanton-ish that we cvould swoop in and send them?

 

I see Nix, Clark, Mench and Jenkins as extraneous parts to our outfield. None of these clowns should be batting 3rd for us as our full-time LF. (Gross is an affordable, solidly valuable PH and 4th OF fill-in, so to me at least, he should remain with us in that capacity.) But a guy like Rios can and should. He's young, a right bat, an above average outfielder, with a big arm, affordable and on the upswing in his career path. We should do what we can to get him.

[sbrylski]

(Except for the DIPS part)

 

Yup, I didn't think you'd like it. Threw it in for people who value it.

 

But still, I want Alex Rios. We have 6 somewhat capable SPs, Toronto wants a capable SP (hell, they'll even take a Blanton for Rios!)

 

Sure, so do I. Just not for Bush, and not for Capuano. Mench + Turnbow for Lieber and then Jenkins + Vargas for Rios. I would actually like to hold on to Turnbow, but I don't think either trade would go through anyway.

[twobrewers]

In their chat tonight Doug put this rumor to bed.

 

I asked him if there was anything to it - he said it was just old information.

[MoneyballMan]

Well, then that should clearly mean that we are still dead in the middle of conversations to acquire him, right?! Although maybe this time DM is doing the reverse on us - we'll think he's lying, but he's double lying, and we really aren't pursuing him!

[UWRyan428]

Or perhaps we've moved onto Brett Myers... I change my vote to the wife beater.