The rotation

[adambr2]

As of today, our 5 man rotation resembles something that we would have expected to see from the 2001 Brewers. The only good news is that we have an ace. After that, it gets ugly. When Suppan has been pretty easily your 2nd best starter, you're in trouble. 3 of 5 guys with ERA's at 5+. One with an ERA at 7+. It's horrid. The internal options are available, but not necessarily better. With Bush and Looper, we're pretty much stuck into hoping that both will step up again. I'm not particularly worried about Bush -- I believe he'll come around. Looper has struggled too, but if history is an indicator, he'll end up around 4.50. We can live with that. I expect Bush and Looper to improve, and Suppan to slightly regress. Parra on the other hand, may or may not figure it out this entire year. We can't count on him definitely doing so judging by just how bad his first half has been. McClung and Villanueva are both internal options from the BP. If it was up to me, I'd give Villy a crack at Parra's rotation spot right now and see how that works out. One way or another, this rotation can't keep us in 1st performing how it has this year. I've been wondering a lot more lately about how Capuano's progression has been coming.

[UeckerAddict]

I know I am probably alone, but I'd really like to see how Difelice would handle a starting gig.

 

But yeah, basically we have to choose from a hodge podge of in house crew or trade. Bedard's injury bummed me out, because that may well have gone out the window. Otherwise, we'll just have to outmash other teams.

[greeg35]

You're not alone. I'd like to see the same thing.

[adambr2]

I like the DiFelice idea, but he has just been so valuable to the bullpen, that I'd be concerned about the ripple effect. Not to say that Villy isn't important to the pen, but I think our pen could go on without him and not miss too much of a beat if he's performing in the rotation. Plus, I'd be concerned about DiFelice against lefty-heavy lineups, especially the 2nd or 3rd time in the order. DiFelice is a guy who seems to rely on deception -- I think he'd be a starter who would start off hot and hit a wall in the 5th or 6th when they've seen him a few times. I think he's better in his bullpen role.

[Invader3K]

This team needs a real #2 pitcher badly, but sadly I don't think there's anything available out there.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Tim Dillard get a chance, or maybe bring back Mike Burns to see how he performs. Neither are really exciting options, but they'd probably do better than Parra was. Otherwise there's Chris Cody, who has been outstanding lately at Nashville, though you just don't hear him talked about much for whatever reason.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't get the "he's too valuable out of the pen" argument for any guy. If your rotation has collapsed, having a great bullpen is of zero value. Besides it's a lot easier to replace the 6th or 7th guy in the pen than it is finding a reliable starter. By the way, why isn't Smith being used? McClung was okay as a starter last year. Villanueva could start (he's got the multiple pitches to be a starter) but he's not stretched out enough so unless he goes down to Nashville for a couple of starts, I don't see that happening. Difelice needs to be stretched out too but he's become basically a one pitch pitcher so that usually works only one time through the order.

[Ennder]

I'm not really worried about it though we need someone to replace Parra obvoiusly. In general people seem to not realize just how high variance pitcher ERA is during a year, we happen to have had a bunch of bad starts lately and it spiked the ERA. We'll have some good starts eventually and it will push it back down. These are 4.50-5.00 ERA type pitchers so seeing them dip over 5 from time to time is just expected, especially after a bad start.

[joepepsi]

I don't know why we should expect Suppan to regress. His numbers and rates are right at his career numbers.

 

Bush's ERA was in the mid 4's until his last horrible start. He'll get it back down. He and Looper have been a bit shaky lately but the team has been facing some pretty good offenses in June.

 

I am somewhat worried about Yovani's control lapse the last couple of games.

 

They definitely need Parra back at his 2008 summer level, or another starter who can provide similar performance.

[BrewCrewForever]

I have to disagree on DiFelice. For two reasons. First he is to valuable out in the pen and second I don't think he is a guy who can go 5+ innings because lefties will crush him and second and third time through the order righties may also figure him out.

 

Our rotation right now is a #1 in Gallardo and then four guys who are #4 and #5 type guys. I thought Bush was maybe a #3 but maybe I was wrong. Basically we have the offense to get into the playoffs again, but if we can't get Yo some help I'm not sure if our pitching can hold up and get us in. I would love to swing a trade for Bedard or Lee but it does not look to promising right now.

[Invader3K]

Yeah...we lucked out having Gallardo step up so far this year. I asked before the season how the Brewers could put so much trust in too young inexperienced starters like Parra and Gallardo. Gallardo has done his part so far, but Parra was the exact opposite. It seems like Melvin was planning or hoping to make a trade again that may not materialize due to the lack of available starting pitching around the majors.

[adambr2]

So, is it all that crazy to think of seeing if there's still any mutual interest between Sheets and Melvin when he comes back from injury? I'm sure some would hate the idea, but is there a single person who doesn't think that a healthy Sheets would be huge for this rotation right now? If we want to add high quality, but don't want to give up our top prospects, that's about the best shot we would have.

[Invader3K]

Well, first of all no one even knows if Sheets will even be back this season. Secondly it seems like he hates the Brewers at this point. Thirdly, it seems like it's a forgone conclusion that he'll sign with the Rangers when he finally is healthy. So I wouldn't bet on him ever playing for the Brewers again. The Ben Sheets as a Brewer ship has sailed. Time to let it go.

[hauser42]

The rotation is a lot better than it was back in the horrible days. Looper and Bush are in a little slump but they should bounce back.

 

No way do I want to see C-Vill put in the rotation, he doesn't have enough stuff to get thew the order time afte time. He is a setup man that can get by once threw the order. Parra still could bounce back and in the second half. Like the thought of giving Dillard a shot just to see what they have in him. McClung is still there and would not take much to stretch out and be a very service able starte again.

[dadofandrew]

DiFelice gets crushed by LH hitters, the only reason he has had success is being set-up properly in his career. Against a lefty heavy team, he'd be lucky to make it through 2-3 frames. Why would you start a guy who has a 1000+ OPSA vs southpaw bats?

 

With the lack of SP's on the market, I think Doug will look for a veteran reliever, of which there may be a few available.

 

As for Smith, he has good results, but sure gives up a lot of baserunners, basically pitching around most good hitters. I don't think he's earned any trust yet.

[davego]

I'd like Seth to get a shot in the rotation before any other call-ups or deals. Seems to be the logical option at this point.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

DiFelice gets crushed by LH hitters, the only reason he has had success is being set-up properly in his career. Against a lefty heavy team, he'd be lucky to make it through 2-3 frames. Why would you start a guy who has a 1000+ OPSA vs southpaw bats?

Amend that to "has gotten crushed" and I wouldn't disagree. However, that isn't remotely enough data to conclude that we should expect a wider than normal platoon differential going forward. In the minors, his platoon differential was pretty typical.

 

He was extraordinarily effective as a AA and AAA starter. There were, no doubt, some lefty-heavy AA and AAA teams he faced in the 200 IP he threw at those levels over the course of 2007 and 2008. To be totally honest, 200 IP isn't remotely enough information to draw any firm conclusions about platoon splits either (as I understand it, you need about 600 IP, or 2000 TBF for platoon differentials to stabilize enough to be really useful), but it is more information than 46 IP.

 

There is no reason whatsoever, statistically speaking, to think that DiFelice is so vulnerable against LHB that he couldn't start. It's one thing if you want to make the argument that starters need to throw more than one pitch, and from a scouting perspective a slow cutter that moves pretty much like a slider shouldn't be effective against LHB, but you cannot win the argument simply by citing DiFelice's MLB splits.

 

I don't buy the scouting argument either -- I doubt he was throwing 83% cutters as a SP in the minors. He may have used that as his main pitch, but he also can throw a straight fastball into the 85-89 mph range, and has a curve and a change as well. He should probably be using those pitches more against LHB even as a short reliever, but I think that they have him pegged as some sort of freakshow one pitch wonder, which is, in my opinion, an unfortunate lack of imagination on the part of the organization (or Kendall, or DiFelice himself, or whoever it is that has decided he should just go out there and throw cutter after cutter).

[JohnBriggs12]

The rotation is a lot better than it was back in the horrible days. Looper and Bush are in a little slump but they should bounce back.

 

No way do I want to see C-Vill put in the rotation, he doesn't have enough stuff to get thew the order time afte time. He is a setup man that can get by once threw the order. Parra still could bounce back and in the second half. Like the thought of giving Dillard a shot just to see what they have in him. McClung is still there and would not take much to stretch out and be a very service able starte again.

In 2006, Villanueva was 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 6 starts. In 2007, he was 2-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 6 starts. He was given 9 starts in 2008. Who knows how well he would have done had they given him the number of starts that Parra got this year.

 

I totally disagree that Villanueva doesn't have enough stuff. He has 4 major league quality pitches, an 88-90 mph fastball, a decent slider, a curveball that he can get over and one of the better changeups in the league. His whole key is spotting his fastball. When he spots his fastball, it doesn't matter whether he's starting or relieving, he gets big league hitters out because it sets up his out pitches, his change and his slider. Conversely, when he's not, he doesn't.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Something has to be done about this rotation because gallardo is the only one we can count on and I have some major concerns about his workload this season. McClung will never be a viable starter as long as he continues to average nearly a walk per inning. Peavy getting injured probably killed any chance we had to acquire a legit top of the line starting pitcher.

 

This rotation is killing the bullpen which was once the strength of the team but has now been badly exposed due to throwing too many innings. I really question if this team has what it takes pitching wise to make the playofs even in this less than stellar division and league.

[Oldcity]

Even Gallardo is struggling lately (for him). It's disgusting that Suppan is the only pitcher pitching up to his capability at the moment. They need to add a starter somehow if they're going to make the playoffs. There doesn't seem to be much available through trade. I might be desperate enough to try Villanueva again in the rotation.

[ecjimg]

I guess I'd call up Homer Bailey, give him another shot. He's been pretty good in AAA. Oh, wait., we didnt pick the consensus best HS arm, we thought "out of the box" and went for Mark Rogers.

[PrinceEatMeat]

With the lack of starting pitching that seems to be available, or just our possible inability to acquire a solid starter, I think it would make sense to go after some bullpen help and use McClung or DiFelice in the rotation. Maybe we could even use both if push comes to shove. It's worth a shot to give those guys a chance, and try something different in the pen, especially if we can't acquire a good starting pitcher.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I guess I'd call up Homer Bailey, give him another shot. He's been pretty good in AAA. Oh, wait., we didnt pick the consensus best HS arm, we thought "out of the box" and went for Mark Rogers.

You'd honestly want Homer Bailey, and his career 7.01 ERA, in our rotation right now? He's done exactly what Mark Rogers has done in his career so far. Absolutely NOTHING. At this point, he would've hurt this team, just like he has with the Reds. Mark Rogers hasn't harmed anything, he just turned out to be a bust, which Bailey is also looking to be.

[hauser42]

JB12 C-Vill has been very average as a SP over the years. Each time he was pulled because of his lack success. He has 3 very average pitches and one big time change up in his tool box. You are right he has to spot his pitches but he has to be like Geg Maddux to make it as a starter and he has yet to show that ove and over. With his stuff he is a great short reliever and that is the role he needs to be in for this team.

[Never Outhustled]

You'd honestly want Homer Bailey, and his career 7.01 ERA, in our rotation right now? He's done exactly what Mark Rogers has done in his career so far. Absolutely NOTHING. At this point, he would've hurt this team, just like he has with the Reds. Mark Rogers hasn't harmed anything, he just turned out to be a bust, which Bailey is also looking to be.

I agree with all of this except the part of Rogers being a bust. He has pitched great this year, in a league he is age appropriate and experience appopriate for him, and he still throws big heat.

 

I agree Baily looks like a bust. His big, loopy breaking ball was great for A ball hitters, but it doesn't translate to the majors just as I said it wouldn't on draft day.

 

Rogers still has a chance to be the 2nd best HS pitcher out of that draft, behind Gallardo, simply because that throne hasn't been claimed by anyone else.

 

[Invader3K]

Why are we talking about revisionist draft scenarios from five years ago? It doesn't affect or help the current situation, which is looking to be that the Brewers only have 3 starting pitchers on their Major League roster right now.