How would you handle the lineup?

[FVBrewerFan]

Wit this team, "hot hand" is at least as reliable than trying to figure out who is the best option for a line-up spot based on past performance. I mean, what numbers do you use as valid for Hart and Hardy? That's why I like McGehee in the 5th spot for now. He's hot...could last another week...he may stay hot all year. But you can't predict what Hart of Hardy will do all year with a straight face. And you know what to expect from Cameron. When he' cold, bury him down in the 7 hole. When he heats up move him up. Bottom line, the 1,2,6,and 7 spots will be changed constantly and I don't think it can be avoided.

[logan82]

I think playing the hot player is just fine as long as you are looking at how he is hitting the ball and not just how many hits he is getting. Like everything else in baseball if you are really results oriented you will miss the big picture over a small sample.

Which one is Macha using though? His use of Hardy seems to indicate he is using results.

[paul253]

I think Macha needs to stick with a lineup. I think Casey McGehee should be playing second base every day and be batting #2 every day. As much as I don't like Gamel batting leadoff, what other options do we have? I'd go with...

 

1)Gamel/Counsell

2)McGehee

3)Braun

4)Fielder

5)Hart

6)Hardy

7)Cameron

8)Kendall

 

On a side note, why is Bill Hall still on this roster? He has done nothing to justify his spot. Send him to Nashville. If he refuses or gets claimed or whatever the case may be (I don't know what sending him to Nashville would entail), then who cares. I'd rather have Adam Heether or Hernan Irabarren on the team than Hall.

[1992casey]

The Hall question is certainly worth a mention. His problems are being discussed in this thread:

 

Will Bill Hall ever make adjustments?

 

If your comments pertain to Billy in the lineup, this thread is fine for further discussion.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I have had enough of Macha and his inability to put out a decent lineup. Why does he insist on batting Hart, Kendall or Hardy at the top of the lineup is beyond mind boggling. I know with the roster makeup we have, it is difficult to put out a good consistent lineup and lineups are not the end all be all but I still don't understand some of the decisions Macha makes on a game by game basis. Anyways I also believe that Gamel needs to not only play more but bat second consistently. The kid gets on base consistently more then most everyone else who has batted second and is on par with Counsell.

 

So, here is my proposed lineup with reasons why this should be the lineup going forward until production changes significantly between multiple players (i.e. Hardy or Hart get red hot, Gamel or McGehee really struggles to get on base, etc., etc.

 

 

1. Mcgehee - 2B Gets on base better than anyone on this club not named Prince or Braun

2. Gamel - 3B Kid gets on base. His avaerag and slugging might suck but his defense has been better then expected and you want good base runners and players on base ahead of our big 2.

3. Braun - LF

4 Prince - 1B

5. Cameron - CF Lack of better option but the best of the rest in terms of power and slugging

6. Hart - RF flip a coin between him and Hardy but a bit more consistent then JJ at this point in time

7. Kendall - C Would prefer Rivera but his lineup position should always be right before the pitcher batting

8. Pitcher

9. JJ - SS Hates batting before a pitcher but his OBP is below 300 so bat him after the pitcher as second leadoff. Anytime he gets on base could lead to a big inning with who we have at the top of the order

 

Explanation of way Gamel needs to start consistently.

1. Highest ceiling player we have over Counsell, Hardy, Hart and McGehee

2. Needs to be playing everday somewhere getting experience here or minors

3. His on base is way better than Hardy (296) Hart (325) and Kendall (320) and nearly identical to Counsell (358)

4. Counsell goes back to being a good utility player spelling Gamel defensively late in games and giving rest to Hardy and McGehee

5. Gamel getting big league experience will help this clube next year a lot since he looks like he could be our starting third basemen next year

6. Provides balance at the top of the order (righty, lefty, righty, lefty, righty)

7. Supposedly is a very good hitter against left handed pitching so I would definitely allow him to face lefties which gives the team a more consistent lineup every day. I think that is a good thing when players know that their roles are consistent, i.e. playing everyday, same position, same lineup position, etc. Allows players to be more relaxed.

 

 

I just don't understand why Macha is so stubborn that he continues to bat players with HORRIBLE on base percentages ahead of his two best hitters. Doesn't it make sense to have runners on base ahead of Braun and Prince so that they can't be pitched around? Doesn't that make our team more dangerous with a chance of a bigger inning with base runners on base and nowhere to put Braun or Prince unless you want to load the bases or walk in a run? Wouldn't a team rather face McGehee with Braun and Prince on first and second with two outs then a situation of McGehee and Gamel on first and second and no outs with Braun and Prince up to bat? Talk about a chance for a big inning and throwing up a crooked number. Does a team pitch around Braun and Prince with runners on base with a chance of loading the bases or go after them with a chance of giving up a 2 run double or 3 run homer? Definitely a pick your poison type of proposition. Batting McGehee and another player with a higher on base percentage ahead of Braun and Prince is way more protection then batting McGehee after Prince.

 

Again, I understand that lineups are not the end all, be all but doesn't this lineup make some more sense?

 

 

[edits: fixed small font; removed excessive punctuation from one spot (?????) --1992]

[joepepsi]

Over his last 100 plate appearances Hart is hitting 295/366/511. I find that hard to believe, but that's what b-ref.com is telling me. So I'd try this for the lineup:

 

Hart

Gamel

Braun

Prince

McGehee

Cameron

and then rest because it doesn't matter who they are, they are all terrible.

[Diskono]

I hot Corey Hart batting leadoff is ok (though you could say that about Hart in any spot in the order), but is his OBP too BA-driven? I think he's a .320-.330 guy normally, so I wouldn't do that unless you're trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

 

BADGERJOBOB's lineup looks good to me. I'm not huge on the pitcher batting 8th thing, but I don't think it makes much difference either.

[logan82]

I stick with my original lineup and substitution pattern with the disclaimer that I am ignoring lineup optimization because a manager just isn't going to optimize a lineup.

[endaround]

I hot Corey Hart batting leadoff is ok (though you could say that about Hart in any spot in the order), but is his OBP too BA-driven? I think he's a .320-.330 guy normally, so I wouldn't do that unless you're trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

 

BADGERJOBOB's lineup looks good to me. I'm not huge on the pitcher batting 8th thing, but I don't think it makes much difference either.

 

Hart is walking a ton more this season, even when he wasn't hitting for average or power.

[topper09er]

Last night, as usual, Jason Kendall was allowed to bat in the 9th innings when we were losing, with 2 men on base, and he grounded into a game ending doubleplay. Seriously, KENDALL SHOULD NEVER BAT IN THE 9TH INNINGS WHEN WE ARE LOSING, UNLESS WE NEED A BUNT, EVER, IN ANY OTHER SITUATION, EVER, AT ALL.

[BrewerAddiction]

It's terribly maddening to see Kendall at the top of the lineup again. Between that and all the talk about lineup optimization, what would be a optimal lineup be for the current Brewers? Is there a crazy macro out there that can generate an ideal lineup? Admittedly, I am not up to speed on Bill James' studies, but I do know that your worst hitter shouldn't be leading off.

[badgerfletch]

Here is a lineup analyzer tool, for anyone interested. Take it for what it's worth

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

[Never Outhustled]

I can't believe Kendall is batting leadoff again, especially since Counsell is also in the lineup tonight. I'm colossally disappointed in Macha as our manager. I'm in shock. Can't Randolph or Sveam talk some sense into him. This is the direction we take coming out of the break?

[joepepsi]

I don't like Kendall batting first either, but........since June 3rd he is hitting 261/.349obp. That's 127 plate appearances. On the other hand, his numbers batting 1st are embarrasingly terrible. He should retire out of shame if that's the best he can do.

[badgerfletch]

So I took it upon myself to do some quick analyzing. I used a rough calculation of the stats for 2007-2009 and came up with the link below. Just interesting to see the best lineup we could field with these players should be about 10% better than the worst.

 

Link

[mletto157]

I was actually upset when I saw the lineup today. Coming out of the All-Star break with a fresh start and this is what you do? I was seriously thinking (probably hoping) that after the break they would have Counsell back to the super-sub roll he belongs in, Gamel at 3rd and McGehee at 2nd as our every-day lineup barring someone needing a day off. Especially since two games in a row Gamel started and both he hit a homerun. They reward him by throwing him right back on the bench. It's just eating at me. Play your best lineup already and put Kendall as low in the lineup as possible, preferrably 9th (though that's not going to happen with Macha - so at least 8th)!

[1992casey]

Those are interesting results, badgerfletch. They're in complete agreement that current practices totally underrate the importance of the #2 hitter. Also interesting is that Braun is rarely batting third in the list of best lineups, and Fielder isn't hitting third at all.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't like Kendall batting first either, but........since June 3rd he is hitting 261/.349obp. That's 127 plate appearances.

Slugging % matters too though, even in the leadoff spot, because he's only the leadoffman in the 1st. The rest of the game he's a hitter. You just can't give the most ABs to the worst hitter.

[derflotr]

I don't understand this at all. How on earth is Mat Gamel going to get better at 3B if he's not playing?

 

One of two things needs to happen, in my mind:

 

1. Start Mat Gamel at 3B consistently with McGehee at second and Counsell spelling McGehee/anyone when necessary (like a previous poster suggested).

2. Trade for an everyday 2B and let McGehee make the majority of starts at 3B with Counsell spelling him, Gamel to AAA.

 

#1 seems too obvious considering Mat Gamel is seeing the ball better recently - and that any prospects the Brewers are willing to trade should probably be saved for a starting pitcher. If Dave Bush was ready to go and healthy it's a different story. I'd probably lean towards the second option. Plus, I'm a believer in a steady starting lineup. Playing the numbers isn't wrong, but if it means drastically changing the batting order every day I worry about the instability - especially on an offense already known for its inconsistency.

[Ennder]

Counsell is wearing down so I certainly think he should be sitting a couple times a week so Gamel can play more often. Overall I don't much like how Macha has handled the lineup the last month or so.

[logan82]

One interesting note is that Gamel actually has a better SLG and OPS than Counsell and an OBP only 4 points lower.

 

Off of the top of my head a optimized Brewers lineup would probably look like

 

Gamel

Fielder

Hardy

Braun

Cameron

McGehee

Hart

Pitcher

Kendall

 

I really like to split up lefties and probably wouldn't bat Gamel and Fielder back to back. Of course this would all change wildly depending on how any given person would evaluate the players. My opinion is that the hitters in order from best to worst are Fielder, Braun, Gamel, Cameron, Hardy, McGehee, Hart and then Kendall. I think Hart and McGehee are really hard to peg down on where they really lie in regards to their hitting talent. McGehee has put up better numbers this year by far than in any of his minor league seasons. That is with playing the better part of the last 3 years in AAA. Hart has one really good year, one really bad year and then the year.

 

Edit: I think I should also add that a traditional lineup is pretty close to optimal and almost as good. There are only a few things that can really ruin a lineup. One of them, and probably most important, is not playing your best players. The other is batting your worst hitter high in the order. I think it might actually be better to bat a pitcher leadoff since they are usually out of the game after 2-3 AB.(Not my idea really. Read it over at Tango's website. Kind of makes sense though) Then you can gain the platoon advantage in that spot.

[Tbadder]

1. Braun (I want to maximize the total number of at bats he gets)

2. Counsell, Casey (platoon with Casey getting all the at bats against lesser right-handers)

3. Fielder (if he's gonna hit like Albert, hit him where Albert resides)

4. Cameron

5. Gamel

6. Hart

7. Hardy

8. Kendall (with significant pinch hitting; I'd make sure he didn't 50% of the games he started; I never want him up in a clutch situation) Rivera (up his playing time to 30%)

9. pitcher

[sheethead]

I like Gamel leading off. Assuming Macha would finally start playing him everyday:

 

1. Gamel

2. Braun

3. Fielder

4. Cameron

5. Hart

6. Hardy

7. Counsel/McGehee

8. Kendall

9. pitcher

[DHonks]

Hart

Gamel

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Cameron

Hardy

Pitcher

Kendall

 

That's my primary lineup. Counsell should start 2-3 days a week, but not more as he's starting to wear down.

[natronek8780]

Hart

Gamel

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Cameron

Hardy

Pitcher

Kendall

 

That's my primary lineup. Counsell should start 2-3 days a week, but not more as he's starting to wear down.

Flip Cameron and McGehee and I'm in complete agreement with this lineup.

 

Counsell can play 1 day per week at 2b, SS and 3b to keep everyone fresh and add a lot of value off the bench on the days he doesn't start.