At what point in time do we need to take a hard look at Sveum?

[brewers02]

The Brewers have had so many players slumping (Hall, Hardy, Hart, Cameron, Kendall and pretty much all the bench players other then McGehee) that at some point don't we have to wonder about our new hitting coach? We know Sveum is really emphasizing patience at the plate but to an extreme? JJ almost never swings at the first pitch and pitchers are taking advantage of this to get ahead of the count. Isn't it Sveum's job to spot and fix this? To top it off guys who leave like Branyan and Gwynn are doing pretty well on their new teams. I don't know if Sveum deserves the "Gerald Perry" treatment yet, but I think he may be part of the problem.

 

Thoughts?

[RyDogg66]

The hitting coaches keep changing and the hitters have stayed pretty much the same the past 3-4 years. At what point do we start getting rid of the players and not the hitting coaches?

[Invader3K]

Well, at the beginning of the year the hitters were looking really good and everyone was praising Sveum. I doubt he's changed his philosophy with the players that much in the past couple months that many of them have suddenly become .200-ish hitters. Sometimes you really do have to blame the players for their own poor play.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't know how Sveum can be blamed for Branyan and Gwynn hitting well since he was never their hitting coach. The bench I blame on Macha. His use of it has been curious. He doesn't give some of them any playing time but still expects them to contribute when called upon. Guys like Hardy, Hart and Cameron are all streaky players. Cameron is slumping now but was well above his norm early in the year so his is just regression to the mean. If, at the end of the season, a large number of players are below their norm then maybe there will be more room for criticism IMO..

[owbc]

I can't really blame Sveum for a lineup that had Counsell, Catalanatto, Gamel, McGehee, Gerut, and Kendall all in the same game (last Thursday).

[Ennder]

Branyan hit well for us last year too, he just got hurt.

 

Gwynn is nothing but a BABIP spike. Laynce Nix would be a more fitting comment but we never really gave him a chance to do anything.

 

JJ has never swung at first pitch strikes even before Sveum. I just don't see this being a big issue, the team is taking more walks than last year and striking out about the same, seems more likely that we just happen to have a few guys slumping at the same time than Sveum somehow being to blame.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just wanted to point out (in the hopes his good mojo can continue)... Corey Hart's last 7 days:

 

.368/.381/.842/1.223 -- all with a very 'normal' BABIP of .313

 

 

Keep up the good work, Corey! Welcome 'back'!

[bjkrautk]

The Brewers have had so many players slumping (Hall, Hardy, Hart, Cameron, Kendall and pretty much all the bench players other then McGehee) that at some point don't we have to wonder about our new hitting coach? We know Sveum is really emphasizing patience at the plate but to an extreme? JJ almost never swings at the first pitch and pitchers are taking advantage of this to get ahead of the count. Isn't it Sveum's job to spot and fix this? To top it off guys who leave like Branyan and Gwynn are doing pretty well on their new teams. I don't know if Sveum deserves the "Gerald Perry" treatment yet, but I think he may be part of the problem.

 

Thoughts?

For all the talk about patience at the plate, only two of those players you listed have actually had the p/pa numbers increase over last year (Hart & Kendall...excluding McGehee due to sample size concerns). The focus on the Brewers having poor years also diverts attention away from the successes of players like Braun and Fielder (two players who have greatly benefitted from being more patient at the plate). Despite the slump, Cameron's current OPS (.855) is higher than any season in his career (previous high is .837 for the Padres in 2006). Weeks' 2009 season - shortened as it may be - is his best OPS season by .050.

 

Also, Sveum wasn't the hitting coach for the Brewers last year, so I don't think that the success of former Brewers is that relevant (particularly Branyan - who hits well everywhere he's been, so long as he stays healthy enough to do so).

 

As I see it, the problems for this team's hitting have been:

1.) Hardy's bad luck (BABIP about .03-.05 behind his career numbers)

2.) Hall's 3rd consecutive reduction in year-to-year OPS.

3.) Corey Hart looking more like 2008 than 2007.

 

(I see the Weeks injury as a 4th problem long-term, but one that is being mitigated quite well by McGehee's hot stretch.)

 

I can't put the blame for any of that on the hitting coach.

[Thurston Fluff]

1.) Hardy's bad luck (BABIP about .03-.05 behind his career numbers)

 

Is this luck or is it opponents learning his weakness and playing him differently?

[Ennder]

1.) Hardy's bad luck (BABIP about .03-.05 behind his career numbers)

 

Is this luck or is it opponents learning his weakness and playing him differently?

It at least partially is because he isn't driving the ball for power at all so he isn't hitting doubles. Part of it is just bad luck though, if you have been watching all the games Hardy has hit a ton of line drives that went for outs.

[TooLiveBrew]

The ball he hit to CF yesterday is a great example. I honestly (fwiw) don't even worry about Hardy. I think he's going to be just fine.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

1.) Hardy's bad luck (BABIP about .03-.05 behind his career numbers)

 

Is this luck or is it opponents learning his weakness and playing him differently?

Hitter BABIP is not luck-driven to the same extent that pitcher BABIP against is luck-driven, but you should still expect more variance in hitter BABIP than you do in plain old batting average (since strikeout rate and homerun rate are two of the more stable elements of hitter performance), and even plain old batting average isn't even reliable enough to stabilize over the course of a whole season, much less two-fifths of one.

 

As far as whether opponents' advance scouts have caught on to anything in terms of Hardy taking every single first pitch, he's been in the top 5 hitters in MLB in percentage of first pitches taken ever since he broke into the league. If they are only catching on to this now, those are some truly DUMB human beings whose negligence of their basic job function borders on criminal.

 

Additionally, it simply isn't true that they are throwing him a higher percentage of first strikes. That data is avaliable at fangraphs. For his career, he's at 56.2% first strikes. It was within 1% of that each of the last two seasons (his two really good offensive years). That has actually been a couple percentage points below league average, for anyone wondering. This year, Hardy has seen the first pitch go for strike one just 52.0% of the time, which is nearly 6% below league average.

 

I too wish he'd stop doing it, but I've been wishing it his entire career. It is frustrating to watch, but he obviously believes it is the correct approach for him and it is difficult to argue that it hasn't worked pretty darn well so far.

[JohnBriggs12]

The ball he hit to CF yesterday is a great example. I honestly (fwiw) don't even worry about Hardy. I think he's going to be just fine.

Did you miss the strikeout on the ball that bounced up there yesterday? Hitting one ball decent a day won't get it done.

[markedman5]

Sveum's philosophy is to swing at strikes you can hit and to lay off perfect pitches(ie..outside corner at the knees) since most hitters can't hit them even if they swing. If you get a good pitch to hit early in the count he wants you to swing.

 

I have a hard time taking issue with those concepts. Hardy for whatever reason refuses to swing at the first pitch.

 

 

Hitters still have to be able to execute the plan or any coach will look bad.

[joepepsi]

The hitting coaches keep changing and the hitters have stayed pretty much the same the past 3-4 years. At what point do we start getting rid of the players and not the hitting coaches?

Bingo. Last year we learned these hitters were a little too heavy on the free swinging hacktastic. Prince and Rickie are the only two who have shown a natural ability for getting on base that isn't overly dependent on batting average. Under Sveum, Rickie and Prince appear to have improved, Braun has made tremendous improvement.

 

Sveum's more patient approach has resulted in 6th best obp in the league, up from 10th last year. The bottom line is Hardy, Hall, and Kendall have been terrible this year. Hart has been in a deep slump for a month, but appears to be breaking out. He is only 6 walks shy of matching last year's total, so if he can get his average back up, he'll be a more valuable hitter with the better plate discipline.

 

I'd rather have a hitting coach that preaches discipline than one like the Orioles' Terry Crowley who talks incessantly about expanding the strike zone and putting the ball in play.

[jeffy]

Did you miss the strikeout on the ball that bounced up there yesterday? Hitting one ball decent a day won't get it done.

Perhaps not, but being fooled by a pitch from time to time does not make him craptastic, either.

[brewmann04]

It was only a matter of time before this Post started, Pitching and Hitting Coaches can do so much teaching.That is time for the Players to produce for themselves. The hitting coaches have been blamed as far back as when Rod Carew was here and the Pitching coaches as far back as Bob Apodaca. It not the coaches it the players failures to produce.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, that's terrible logic -- that one good swing doesn't sum things up! This one bad one does! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif For the record my intent was not to give a be-all, end-all example. I just think that swing to CF is the best example in recent memory.

 

I definitely stand by the assertion that J.J. is, and will be, fine at the plate. His general approach at the plate is at worst (imo) about 2d or 3d-best on the team (Prince & Gamel are the two that I think might be better).

[JohnBriggs12]

We've all read about people close to others that are suffering from pain having "sympathy pains" like a husband feeling abdominal pain as his wife is having contractions.

 

I think this team is so close that hitters are having sympathy slumps for Bill Hall. Everyone likes Bill and hates to see him struggle like he has again so subconsciously they are all slumping with him so that he doesn't feel so alone.

 

Don't laugh! Beats the theories I read from the hitting coaches of recent vintage (Wynegar, Skaalen, Sveum).

 

The solution is therefore for Hall to start hitting!

[JohnBriggs12]

Did you miss the strikeout on the ball that bounced up there yesterday? Hitting one ball decent a day won't get it done.

Perhaps not, but being fooled by a pitch from time to time does not make him craptastic, either.

0 for 28 does though.

[Ennder]

Hardy went 0 for 28 at one point last year and was one of the more valuable SS in baseball on the season. I don't think anyone would say he isn't in a slump right now but the slump is being amplified by a bit of bad luck as well.

[Boy Jeenius]

3 weeks ago we were all lauding Sveum as a great hitting coach, THE answer. Wow, we never had a great hitting coach like that before, this is great!!!

 

NOW, team goes in a mini slump and now he's the wrong answer? Puuuuhh......lease! Complete over reaction on BOTH sides of the equation.

[JJHardy7]

Puuuuhh......lease! Complete over reaction on BOTH sides of the equation.

 

I agree with your opinion, but I do have to admit I had a nice chuckle regarding your spelling of please and also making a point about not overreacting.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

We've all read about people close to others that are suffering from pain having "sympathy pains" like a husband feeling abdominal pain as his wife is having contractions.

 

I think this team is so close that hitters are having sympathy slumps for Bill Hall. Everyone likes Bill and hates to see him struggle like he has again so subconsciously they are all slumping with him so that he doesn't feel so alone.

So Hardy got Hall pregnant, and now feels guilty getting on base because Billy can't run? Scandalous.

 

Gotcha. All makes sense now http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[FVBrewerFan]

Hardy went 0 for 28 at one point last year and was one of the more valuable SS in baseball on the season. I don't think anyone would say he isn't in a slump right now but the slump is being amplified by a bit of bad luck as well.

It's beyond his current slump. All of April was a slump too. He basically had 2 1/2 good weeks this season. For whatever reason, Hardy is generally protected by this community, while Hart is crucified.

 

As far as the hitting coach goes, none of know how Sveum gos about his job, and what affect he has on players. But just like Yost, or any other coach in any sport , sometimes change for the sake of change is a good enough reason.

 

Personally, I think MAcha has to be much quicker reacting to the "hot hand." Hart is hot, should be moved to the #2 or #5 hole as long as he's hitting. Cameron has predictably fell off after his red-hot start, should have been moved down by now. Hardy may "feel confortable" in the #2 spot, but I'm not comfortbale with him going 0-28 in front of Braun/Fielder. I don't think Gamel is used properly either. He should be starting 6 out of 7 games or so, and moved up in the line-up.