Pitching

[Jose Cardenal]

Many of you are like me and have been following the Brewer's minor league system for quite a while. Has there ever been a time when the organization has had as many exiting arms (raw as some may be) as they do now (I include Arnett & Heckathorn)?

 

Here is my top ten:

 

1) J.Jeffress

2) C.Scarpetta

3) Z.Bradock

4) E.Arnett

5) K.Heckathorn

6) E.Anundson

7) J.Odorizzi

8) E.Fredrickson

9) W.Peralta

10)S.Lintz

 

That leaves out some pretty good arms/prospects (Rodgers, Wooten, Periard, Seidel, Mercedes, etc...). Sadly they are all below AA which means they won't help this year or next (unless they are used in trades).

 

I know it takes about 5 prospects to graduate 1 Major League arm but still...

 

Could the organization be on the cusp of repeating the success it had in the mid '80's to early 90's when they drafted/developed:

 

T.Higuera

C.Eldred

J.Navarro

C.Bosio

D.Plesac

D.August

D.Henry

C.Crim

J.Nieves

B.Wegman

[TheCrew07]

I like Braddock more than Jeffress now that he's healthy and effective again. I would flop Heckathorn and Peralta on your list as well... My gut impression is that Heckathorn may have a career path like Frederickson where it takes him a while to get his delivery/mechanics straightened out.

[nate82]

My top 10:

 

1. Braddock

2. Scarpetta

3. Jeffress

4. Odorizzi

5. Heckathorn

6. Anundson

7. Arnett

8. Peralta

9. Fredrickson

10. Lintz

 

Braddock when healthy is a better pitcher than Jeffress and Scarpetta is going to be something special. Only reason I have Arnett at the 7th spot is because he hasn't proved himself yet in the minors and I haven't seen him pitch at all yet the others I have seen pitch.

[Outlander]

With Josh Butler now pitching in AAA is he considered a top prospect by the Brewers? I wouldn't think so since he is not even in the Power 50 and wasn't impressive last year but it seems strange that he jumped from A ball to AAA.

[Jose Cardenal]

Butler wasn't a consideration for my top ten but I would lump him in with C.Cody, M.Jones and T.Dillard as guys who could make it to the show and hang around for a few years, but not someone to get exited about. In the not to distant past though a guy like Butler would have been in most people's top ten list.

[trwi7]

1. Zach Braddock

2. Jeremy Jeffress

3. Wily Peralta (I really like him)

4. Cody Scarpetta

5. Eric Arnett

6. Jake Odorizzi

7. Evan Anundsen

8. Evan Frederickson

9. Alex Periard

10. Mark Rogers

11. Josh Butler

12. Efrain Nieves

13. Seth Lintz

14. Omar Aguilar

15. Tim Dillard

[BrewCrewWS2008]

1. Jeffress

2. Braddock

3. Scarpetta

4. Anundsen

5. Odorizzi

6. Arnett

7. Peralta

8. Rogers

9. Periard

10. Lintz

[Never Outhustled]

With Josh Butler now pitching in AAA is he considered a top prospect by the Brewers? I wouldn't think so since he is not even in the Power 50 and wasn't impressive last year but it seems strange that he jumped from A ball to AAA.

First of all, he was always considered a top prospect by the Brewers. The Brewers have liked Butler since college, wanted to draft him in the 2nd round, traded for him, and promoted and kept him in AAA. He has much better stuff than numerous pitchers on peoples top 10 lists, and has performed very well this year. I'm guessing the bias against him is because people here loved Gabe Gross, the guy he was traded for. Butler has a very good chance to be a Brewers starter.


He was meant to just make one AAA start to help out with a double header, and then go to AA. However, once Money and Bosio seen his stuff, they wouldn't let him leave. Hes been very good in AAA and is easily our most advanced pitching prospect. I wouldn't be too concerned about his stats last year, prospectum is just as much about stuff than stats.

Butler wasn't a consideration for my top ten but I would lump him in with C.Cody, M.Jones and T.Dillard as guys who could make it to the show and hang around for a few years, but not someone to get exited about

So he's lumped with older guys with lesser stuff? He has the raw stuff to succeed in the majors, why can't you see him sticking around?



I think the Jeffress/Braddock comparisons are unfair. Let Jeffress come out of the pen and just blow it out for 2 innings and I'm guessing he'd have some amazing stats. Braddock hasn't even been stretched out yet. When/if he does, he will lose some of that fastball velocity. I agree he's a really exciting prospect, but its just an unfair comparison right now.

[twobrewers]

Mediocre pitchers are a dime a dozen. (Ask Dillard)

 

Depth is OK. But I would take 1 Yovanni over 10 Suppans.

 

Braddock has a chance to be special. Peralta might have a chance. Other than that - 6 of your top 10 will probably never see the majors.

[TheCrew07]

I think the Jeffress/Braddock comparisons are unfair. Let Jeffress come out of the pen and just blow it out for 2 innings and I'm guessing he'd have some amazing stats. Braddock hasn't even been stretched out yet. When/if he does, he will lose some of that fastball velocity. I agree he's a really exciting prospect, but its just an unfair comparison right now.

Unfair? How is it unfair to prefer a pitcher with much better control who also happens to be a LHP? I've been campaigning for the gloves to come off Rogers and Braddock for some time but I hardly see how 3 more MPH on his fastball is going to help Jeffress command his pitches better? I'm no big fan of Rogers' peripherals either, I just find it encouraging that he's been effective in a limited role and his velocity is still comfortably in the mid 90s. The only way Jeffress is a better prospect is because he's closer to MLB with the conventional 20 inning bump per season if he gets himself straightened out, but Braddock's health issues the past couple of seasons aren't entirely his own fault either.

 

As for Butler, we'll have to agree to disagree, I'm not certain how what round a player would have been taken in is relevant to their prospect status? What is succeeding? Being an adequate #5? A solid bullpen guy? I don't see Bulter as a top of the rotation starter, I certainly could be wrong.

 

If we only get 1 or 2 pitchers out of Braddock, Jeffress, Rogers, Scarpetta, Odorizzi, Peralta, Arnett, Heckathorn, and Frederickson we're in grave trouble as an organization because that's an awful lot of raw talent that's flamed out in a hurry. Of that top tier of talent we'd better get 3 for the rotation in the next 5 years at a minimum, and that's completely dismissing the rest of the promising arms throughout the organization, one of those guys is going to surprise us as well. The pitching from A+ down is as stacked as it's ever been, even prior to this year's additions of Arnett, Heckathorn, and Hall in the first 4 rounds.

 

Other starting pitchers who are still legit prospects include Bulter, Cody, Rivas, Bowman, Adams, Watten, Periard, Seidel, Lintz, Luetge, Lasker, Bucci, Billings, Nieves, Anundsen, and Wawrzasek. I'm leaving off the pitchers in this year's draft from Hall on down until they are all signed, but the system is very deep.

 

Throw all those pitchers in the 2 lists in a pot, apply the somewhat standard 1 out of 5 methodology, and we're still in awfully good shape rotation wise. Some of those SPs will probably end up as relievers, but our relief pitching is already really solid as an organization as well, without the additional SP depth.

 

I really like where the system is at pitching wise as of today, and my hunch is that it will look even better this time next season.

[Never Outhustled]

Unfair? How is it unfair to prefer a pitcher with much better control who also happens to be a LHP? I've been campaigning for the gloves to come off Rogers and Braddock for some time but I hardly see how 3 more MPH on his fastball is going to help Jeffress command his pitches better

Don't pretend like you don't know it gets tougher for pitchers the 2nd and 3rd time throught the order. As a starter, Jeffress is trying to command a 2-seamer so he can gets outs early in the count so he can last 6-7 innings in a game. As a reliever, he could just come in and blow 98 MPH 4-seamer past hitters once threw the order. Its much easier to control a 4-seamer than a 2-seamer.

 

 

I really like where the system is at pitching wise as of today, and my hunch is that it will look even better this time next season.

Now theres something we can agree on. I don't think theres an organization with better arms from Rookie ball through A+.

[TheCrew07]

I wouldn't debate the control issue between the 2 pitches, but you seem to be hung up on this year's stats, when I'm talking about their body of work as a whole.

 

As far as throwing his 4 seam by hitters, that might work at A+, but he's not going to blow away AA hitters on his FB alone. His last 2 starts have been encouraging, but I would have taken Braddock over Jeffress in 07, and now that he's healthy and looks like himself again I'm right back where I started. All things being equal I'll take the LHP, but they aren't equal Braddock has much better control and still throws in the mid 90s. Talent wise they are 1A and 1B, if Braddock's numbers decline rapidly as a starter I'll cede the point, I just don't think that's going to be the case, Braddock when healthy has gotten the better results of the 2.

 

edit. Ha, I'm happy we agree on something at least!

[battlekow]

1. Zach Braddock

2. Jeremy Jeffress

3. Wily Peralta (I really like him)

Agreed. I'd switch your top two, but Peralta is #3 with a bullet. The K/BB is just phenomenal, and the stuff is legitimate.

[logan82]

If 2 pitchers have similar stuff and command, I would take the righty over the lefty. The righty has the platoon advantage over a larger percentage of hitters.

[clancyphile]

Butler wasn't a consideration for my top ten but I would lump him in with C.Cody, M.Jones and T.Dillard as guys who could make it to the show and hang around for a few years, but not someone to get exited about. In the not to distant past though a guy like Butler would have been in most people's top ten list.

Cody and Dillard are, I think, two of the more underrated. Cody's continuing the pwnage he delivered last season, and Dillard's been solid enough that I'd say he'd be a decent #4 or #5 for the Crew.

 

If Cody's still putting up a sub-1 WHIP, and Dillard keeps rattling off solid numbers as a starter, it doesn't hurt the Brewers rotation.

[LouisEly]

The only issue I have is that everyone on everyone's list, perhaps with the exception of one pitcher on one person's top 10 list, is in A-ball or rookie ball, and thus at least three years away. Certainly we'd all do backflips if Cody could put up Jamie Moyer type numbers in the majors, but Swindle hasn't been able to project his AAA numbers to the majors so it gives me pause if Cody will be able to. Dillard is starting to look like the bullpen is whatever future he might have (but he can't be any worse than Parra now). It's unlikely that anyone is ready to step up from the minors this year, and the best options in the next two years are Cody, Dillard (probably goes back to the pen), and perhaps Butler.

[Never Outhustled]

Dillard's been solid enough that I'd say he'd be a decent #4 or #5 for the Crew.

Dillard hasn't been solid at all, and he's only a #4 or 5 starter for Nashville. He has a 1.42 WHIP and a grotesque 27BB/25K in 72 innings. He's a worthwhile MLB bullpen option, but nothing more.

 

I'll agree that Cody is knocking on the door.

 

Others who would be given a shot if we needed a starter right now ahead of Dillard are Seth McClung, Mike Burns, the finally hot Lindsey Gulin, who was there best AAA starter last year, and Josh Butler. In 15 AAA innings, Butler has a 1.07 WHIP and 1BB/15K, and thats after a long scoreless inning streak at BC. While the others are more polished with better command, Butler has legitamate MLB mid-rotation stuff, he just needs more reps to harness it. Thats not too suprising, he's less experienced than the rest of this group.

 

 

Nate82 wrote:

1. Braddock

2. Scarpetta

3. Jeffress

Jeffress is just 11 months older than Scarpetta, and he outpitched what Scarpetta is doing now 2 years ago in A ball. Scarpetta has nice stuff, but Jeffress has just as good of breaking ball, and as much velocity as anyone in baseball. Jeffress struggles with control, but so does Scarpetta. When guessing which of 2 pitchers has the best chance to improve their control, I'll take the athletic one.

 

I like Scarpetta, and would put him on par with the 2 other top Wisconsin power pitchers, Peralta and Frederickson. I just think, despite his early season struggles, Jeffress still has huge, attainable upside.

[BrewCrewWS2008]

I really hope that at the All-Star break they will start to challenge these guys at Brevard County and move them up so we can see if they are as good as we hope they are. I know they want to stretch Rogers and Braddock out and both havent gone over 3 innings i don't believe and we know Jeffress is working out some problems but Anundsen, Wooten, Mercedes, Rapoza they all have ERA's in the 1.00's or lower and WHIPS that are below 1.00. They are just destroying batters. This may be the most dominate staff in the minor and is the key reason why they have the best record in the minors.

Its real hard to rate Rogers, Braddock, Anundsen and where they should be amongst our pitching prospects when they are not even being challenged at all. They clearly over matter the hitter in a pitching league. Jeffress we have had a decent sample size for him in AA so to me he is above Braddock even with his bad performance this season just for the fact that he is our closest pitching prospect and has been tested in AA. Plus last year he pitched decent in 3 of the 4 games if memory serves me correct and he gave up 6 of his 9 ER in that one bad game.

[pogokat]

Braddock is awesome, but he doesn't throw mid 90's guys...he hits 91-92, but he works high 80's...for a lefty with pinpoint control, though...it doesn't mater as much..

 

does anyone have an accurate reading on Wily peralta's fastball? Since the Brewers left the sally league, i don't get to see these guys anymore. edit: Keep a close eye on Evan frederickson---the guy's got more helium than anyone in the system--if his control problems are legitimately fixed, he's the LHP Neugie...which means he could shoot straight to the top of the prospect lists

[CheezWizHed]

Wouldn't it be a kicker if soft-toss Chris Cody succeeds where fire-baller Jose Capellan did not (although he never seemed to light it up as a Brewer...).

[battlekow]

Keep a close eye on Evan frederickson---the guy's got more helium than anyone in the system--if his control problems are legitimately fixed, he's the LHP Neugie...which means he could shoot straight to the top of the prospect lists

Frederickson is way more hittable than Neugebauer.

[trwi7]

does anyone have an accurate reading on Wily peralta's fastball?

92-94 with a good amount of sink in to righties.

[BrewCrewWS2008]

Keep a close eye on Evan frederickson---the guy's got more helium than anyone in the system--if his control problems are legitimately fixed, he's the LHP Neugie...which means he could shoot straight to the top of the prospect lists

Frederickson is way more hittable than Neugebauer.

Yeah, agreed. He has awhile before he can be the next Neugebauer.

 

The more I read on Cody the more I like the guy and think maybe this season the Brewers should give him a look. His minor league numbers are just outstanding, he is a lefty and he may not be a top 1 or 2 guy but I think he'd make a very nice 4 or 5. Heres a nice article from a few years ago:

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070621&content_id=263265&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

[TheCrew07]

Braddock is awesome, but he doesn't throw mid 90's guys...he hits 91-92, but he works high 80's...for a lefty with pinpoint control, though...it doesn't mater as much..

 

There were reports earlier this year that his fast was sitting in the mid 90s. I'm sure it was a link report but the forum isn't cooperating when I search for Braddock.

 

edit. NM, somehow I linked a Rogers take.

[aintbize]

I believe it was a Sarasota game link that mentioned Braddock and Axford were lighting up the gun. I know for a fact that Braddock is sitting well in that mid 90 range, touching 98 occasionally.