Why is J.J. getting a free pass?

[zzzmanwitz]

Since I think our window to have a legitimate chance to win a World Series is probably this season and the next couple years,

 

Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Brett Lawrie, Angel Salome, Eric Arnett, Zach Braddock, and Wily Peralta would like to disagree. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Invader3K]

Yeah, but how many years will it take for them to reach their peaks? And then how long will they be around before they're traded or leave for free agency?

 

It's very important to push with this current group, or a couple years from now we might be looking at another four or five year rebuilding period.

[Hate those Rodents]

The current crop, minus Braun and Fielder, is very much a below average crop.

[sheethead]

Meh. I think you're being way too results oriented. Ever since the second half of JJ's rookie year, he's been an above average SS. With him nearing his prime, why would one expect a dropoff of this proportion?

 

How can someone be too results oriented? Its entirely possible to believe Hardy has already peaked as a player. It happens all the time to baseball players. He is getting slower by the minute, and his pitch selection is getting worse instead of better. I believe he will not attain the offensive season stats he put up the last two years again in his career, and his diminishing speed will only escalate his defensive decline as a SS.

[zzzmanwitz]

I really think that the brewers have put themselves in a good position to compete for the playoffs for many years to come. That's all it takes to compete for the World Series.

[Gobias Industries]

How can someone be too results oriented? Its entirely possible to believe Hardy has already peaked as a player. It happens all the time to baseball players. He is getting slower by the minute, and his pitch selection is getting worse instead of better. I believe he will not attain the offensive season stats he put up the last two years again in his career, and his diminishing speed will only escalate his defensive decline as a SS.

If you had made this argument before the season started (did you?), I could see your line of thinking. There is no doubt JJ isn't very athletic for a pro athlete, or even the most durable player. With that said, 26 year old players that have improved every year don't tend to regress rapidly. A random down year can happen (Pat Burrell: 2003 or Nick Swisher: 2008). I think 4 or 5 years from now, looking back, that will probably be the case for JJ. But maybe you're right. Personally, I still think it's stretch that one could expect Melvin foresee this happening. JJ was supposed to improve this year, allowing us to compete and groom Escobar in the meantime, and then flip him in the offseason for a haul.

[sheethead]

If you had made this argument before the season started (did you?)

 

I didn't pose the argument at the beginning of the year, nor did I see it coming, nor did I expect Melvin to see it. My comments have been purely hindsight, and I have not insinuated anyone should have seen it coming. My comments were based off my observations of Hardy this year, and what I happen to see as a future scenario for him. Could he rebound? Sure, but it will be too late for the Brewers to benefit much from it unless it starts very soon.

[TooLiveBrew]

and his pitch selection is getting worse instead of better

 

Unless this can be proven, I think it's best to assume this is just fan frustration as opposed to fact.

[Ennder]

How can someone be too results oriented?

 

Baseball fans are almost always too results oriented. There was no reason to think that Hardy had already had his best season, there still is no reason to expect it. He is having a bad year, it happens to everyone.

 

He is actually swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone this year than either of the past 2 years. He is swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone as well. His in zone contact rate is the same as last year. If anything his discipline has improved. He just isn't hitting the ball with as much authority.

 

The bad luck from early in the season is still suppressing his AVG by a good .030 or so. While a line of .260/.325/.406 isn't pretty it is still much more in line with his career.

[sheethead]

He is actually swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone this year than either of the past 2 years. He is swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone as well.

 

This is what I have observed throughout the year. Through observation, I have also noticed his timing of swinging at pitches out of the zone, and not making contact, on 2-strike pitches has gotten worse. He is at 66% of his Ks from last year, while only at 58% of his walk total. He is striking out more, walking less, and every other offensive stat is down. I would conclude his pitch selection is getting worse looking at this data.

 

He is actually swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone this year than either of the past 2 years.

 

I am still hesitant to trust this data as reliable or conclusive, as every umpire has their own subjective strike zone. I was looking purely at results, not interpretable data.

[sheethead]

Unless this can be proven, I think it's best to assume this is just fan frustration as opposed to fact.

 

I believe it can be proven or unproven, depending on what data you decide to trust.

[joepepsi]

The bad luck from early in the season is still suppressing his AVG by a good .030 or so. While a line of .260/.325/.406 isn't pretty it is still much more in line with his career.

His high point in rate stats was May 28th: .241/.329/.411--.740 OPS.. Since then he's hitting .216/.266/..347--.612 OPS. Since June 15th, when his batting average dipped to .207, he's hitting at a .783 OPS.

 

I guess what's missing is that 4 week stretch we saw the last two years when he hits like Honus Wagner. Maybe it started last night?

[nate82]

When does this stop being about bad luck and Hardy just sucking?

[sheethead]

Baseball fans are almost always too results oriented. There was no reason to think that Hardy had already had his best season, there still is no reason to expect it.

 

2006 Bill Hall would like you to reconsider your opinion.

[nate82]

Hardy broken down monthly

 

By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	22	1	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	0	1	.136	.136	.273	.409
April	77	5	12	1	0	3	7	7	0	19	0	0	.156	.224	.286	.510
May	80	16	25	6	1	2	17	11	2	9	0	0	.313	.400	.488	.888
June	101	16	23	2	0	3	8	10	0	22	0	0	.228	.295	.337	.632
July	66	6	14	1	1	3	11	2	0	16	0	1	.212	.232	.394	.626

This is no longer a slump or bad luck. Especially when you see that Hardy is just not driving the ball anymore. Hardy's LD% has decreased so far this year and his FB% has increased but his GB% has also decreased so far this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3797_SS_season_full_9_20090723.png

 

This just is not a slump anymore nor is it bad luck anymore. There is something wrong here with Hardy maybe this is Bill Hall version 2.0 or this maybe just below what Hardy's real talent is which is a .250/.320/.400 type of a player.