Why is J.J. getting a free pass?

[trwi7]

Why does everyone insist on comparing Escobar to Hardy?

Because Escobar is going to be replacing Hardy at some point.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I don't hate JJ Hardy. But I also know how small market baseball works. JJ will be traded soon (next couple of years) because we have another prospect at shortstop in Alcides Escobar. I think that one thing that attracts members to Escobar is that he is different from JJ. Without Weeks we lack speed at the top of the line-up. Escobar has that. Escobar seems to be more of a top of the order guy (I know that he would be better suited for it if he walked more). Alcides may fill a need.

 

While some on this board are upset with JJ, my problems are in rightfield. I don't think Corey is playing as hard as he did before he made the all-star game. That is the spot that really needs to improve.

[brewcrew7]

Hardy was the most valuable position player on the team last year with Cameron being the 2nd most valuable. Fielder was 4th and he really wasn't close to the top 3(Braun was 3rd obviously). That is last year though and a one year sample doesn't always tell the real story.

This is exactly why JJ doesn't get as much heat as other players when he is slumping. There are actually people who watch (assuming here) a majority of brewer games and actually believe JJ is this valuable. You take out a couple weeks of JJ's season last year and his year is pretty bad. He went on that tear and hit something like 8 HR in a week or so and had one other stretch that he was absolutely crazy good. But he also went thru awful stetches last year. And when he is bad, he is really, really bad.

 

Plus you also see the people who talk about how hot he was on the home stand. I guess? He had a few games where he has multiple hits. So now he is getting hot? He is just a guy who gets a pass most of the time because he is so well liked. He has been just awful this year and people are at least starting to talk about the subject. But to say he is more valuable to Prince or Braun is simply crazy. I can't believe it's even talked about. You do not worry about when JJ is coming up in the order. Ever!

 

 

(edit: long nested quote --1992)

[Diskono]

Postseason2006- Sorry, I'm not always good at explaining things. Looking at Hardy's last three seasons of work (including this one), his line is very similar to Escobar's 2009. I'm not looking at Escobar's previous seasons, because they were at lower levels and thus, less relevant for comparison purposes IMO. The difference is that Hardy did it in the majors, and Escobar did it in AAA. You have to assume that Escobar's numbers will drop a bit if promoted, because it does for just about every player. So (once again IMO), Hardy is by far the better option RIGHT NOW. As bad as Hardy's season has started off, Escobar would likely be worse.

 

I do get the point that we might be better off overall trading him for pitching, but I think that would be a case of selling low, and that would be worse for us long-term. I think we would get better value in a trade by offering 1 year of Hardy fresh off a strong finish than 1 1/2 years when he's struggling. I've been a huge fan of Escobar since we signed him, and I think he has a chance to have a better career. But he's not there yet, and we have a better choice for winning now.

 

I wouldn't. Hardy would be hard pressed to match those numbers with his poor start. From this point on, I think he can match those numbers. Look at Weeks last year. He had a poor start and low numbers at the end of the year. From about June on he matched his career numbers for the most part.

You're probably right, but he's still just a few monster games away from being back on track, and he's historically hit much better in the second half.

[dlk9s]

There are actually people who watch (assuming here) a majority of brewer games and actually believe JJ is this valuable. You take out a couple weeks of JJ's season last year and his year is pretty bad. He went on that tear and hit something like 8 HR in a week or so and had one other stretch that he was absolutely crazy good. But he also went thru awful stetches last year. And when he is bad, he is really, really bad.

I've watched most of the games and here's what I've seen when I've watched JJ: a guy who typically takes good approaches at the plate and hits the ball hard. That's not to say that he doesn't have bad AB's and bad games. Obviously, he does, as does everybody. But I don't watch him and feel like he'll just flail at pitches or bounce softly to second every time. I actually usually expect him to hit the ball hard, but right at someone. As somebody posted earlier, some new mathematical analysis has shown that JJ was the second unluckiest hitter in the league in April and I wouldn't be surprised if he has been similarly unlikely much of the rest of the season.

[logan82]

He is just a guy who gets a pass most of the time because he is so well liked.

 

That may be true for some people, but many others actually think he can hit. I am not all that fond of Hardy to be honest, but I do think he is a very good player. Don't dislike him, just not one of my favorite players.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

He turned a pretty nice double play on a diving stab today. His defensive value is 7 runs above average to other shortstops according to fangraphs. Hardy also can hit, although his small sample of numbers may not show it this year. He's the type of player that when he gets hot, he can carry a team and from the SS position. Last year he was 13.7 runs above average offensively, but this year he is 9.7 below average. I think this years numbers will level off. Hardy has a ton of value and will bring in a nice pitcher in the offseason if the Brewer front office decides to go with Escobar as the opening day 2010 SS.

[dlk9s]

I'll be honest, if we win a World Series within the next few years and it's without Hardy, Fielder, Braun, or Weeks, and to a lesser extent Hart, it will be slightly bittersweet to me. Still mostly sweet (I'm sure I'll cry I'll be so happy), but I want it to be with the "core."

[Ennder]

I'll be honest, if we win a World Series within the next few years and it's without Hardy, Fielder, Braun, or Weeks, and to a lesser extent Hart, it will be slightly bittersweet to me. Still mostly sweet (I'm sure I'll cry I'll be so happy), but I want it to be with the "core."

 

I'll be really happy if we do this because it will mean the next group of guys we have coming are better than I expect them to be http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[Boy Jeenius]

You get very strong -- solid, consistent -- defense at SS, 20 to 25 jacks and 75 to 80 rbi per year. What the blazes does he need a pass for? We expecting triple crown winners at each position? The guy is a solid pro. When he's gone, then you'll finally realize how good is is(was).

[1992casey]

As of about ten days ago Hart was still rated as a type based on the Elias formula.

 

I figured I'd better address this typo: As of about ten days ago Hart was still rated as a type A based on the Elias formula. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif He's the last Type A on the National League 1B-OF list.

[TheCrew07]

I'll be honest, if we win a World Series within the next few years and it's without Hardy, Fielder, Braun, or Weeks, and to a lesser extent Hart, it will be slightly bittersweet to me. Still mostly sweet (I'm sure I'll cry I'll be so happy), but I want it to be with the "core."

Well it's not really their fault if it doesn't happen and likely won't happen until the rotation gets addressed long-term, the system just didn't produce enough top notch pitching to go along with the bats. In the end, at least in my opinion, it's just that simple, we never got enough pitching. We've been around the top 5 in runs scored the last 3 seasons, there's no shame in that, they did their part. It sort of stinks that they are pretty much all the same type of player at the plate, but there's no way to know that when you draft them. I'm alright graduating so many successful bats from the system in one wave though, what an accomplishment that was. We still have a shot to sign Weeks long-term if in fact he's turned it around, he should be cheapish given his injury history and production relative to his talent the last 3 seasons.

 

With so many low OBP players I was always of the opinion that improving rotation and limiting the amount of runs scored seemed like the best way to even out the highs and lows with the offensive output. It is what it is though.

[RightFieldCoder]

Part of the bad pitching during this crop is also from the bad defense this crop gives you. We haven't developed any pitchers outside of two (Sheets and YoGa), but the trades and FA have brought pitchers into the Majors. Guys like Bush and Suppan can't be expected to get 4-5 outs an innning, and that's what this defense does.

 

I think Hardy is about equal to Escobar starting next year. Hardy will have the more developed bat, but Escobar will the better natural defense. The buisness side of limited revenue baseball says keep the cheaper of the two and get what you can in a trade with the other. I'd like to keep Hardy and have him play 3rd, but he's made it clear he won't do it. The only other options are to move the better defender to 3B or to convince Hardy to sign a 6 year deal that will only pay him what Escobar will make during that time. I don't see either of those happening.

[endaround]

The defense has been top notch for two years now. Its the only thing keeping Looper and Suppan from looking like total crap. Its also likely the big reason why Gamel isn't getting palying time.

[JJHardy7]

Maybe I just have a different perspective this season, but last year it seemed like I could come up with deals everywhere, this season I'm coming up empty.

I see your point. I guess my view of the entire situation has changed this year. Before the year and early on I was against trading Hardy because Escobar's bat was still somewhat of an unknown. To a degree, it still is since he's been in AAA all year. I guess I'm saying now I'd made the deal happen. I just don't think we'll be able to get in the playoffs unless we get pitching somehow. Maybe Parra comes back? Bush pitches like he can? There are internal things that can happen, but I tend to think we'll need to look outside the organization. I do worry that if the Cubs and Cards get healthy we'll be on the outside looking in. We've had our setbacks with injuries, but I wouldn't trade spots with the Cubs or Cards when it comes to injuries.

Its also likely the big reason why Gamel isn't getting palying time.

If he played, we might know whether or not that's a true statement. He'll stick at 3B, but again until he can actually play we don't know 100%.

[endaround]

I'm not saying he can't play 3B its that coaches seem to believe he can't handle 3B. He wouldn't be removed constantly otherwise.

[JJHardy7]

I'm not saying he can't play 3B its that coaches seem to believe he can't handle 3B. He wouldn't be removed constantly otherwise.

He's not even playing 3B all that much the past few weeks. I do agree with you though that there seems to be some reason or another for it. It very well could be defense, but I guess I don't know if it's that. It seems to be a big reach given that he's been in the bigs now almost two straight months, but I hope there is some reason as to why he's not playing.

[Postseason2006]

JJ is better batting later in the lineup. He's up there hacking as usual. What day will he have his 4-4 game after 4 hitless ones?

[topper09er]

He is getting a pass because he plays good defense at SS, but his offense is still horrible. Out of his 75 games played he has gone 0-4 or 0-5 22 times. He seriously needs to fix his swing, I am so sick of his hands starting out away from him below his shoulder. If you hit like that you will never be consistant because he can only be good when he is hot and seeing the ball extremely well. This is because it takes him too long to move his hands back to a hitting position and then take them quickly through the zone on a downward plane. Most of the time he is late and he starts his swing with his hands too low and he hits crappy pop-ups. He is also not using RF at all and has been a particularily horrible situational hitter. He never seems to move runner or get them in, just taking his same approach every single at bat no matter who is on base.

[TheCrew07]

I don't get why he changed his hands, his stance wasn't broke, now he broke it by adding unnecessary complication to his swing. This happens to be a pet peave of mine... movement without reason that complicates and slows everything else down. Bring the hands back in and put them where they belong JJ. I'll probably freak out when I have to watch Salome everyday...

[brewmann04]

i think the brewers will be trying to move JJ during the long offseason.

[sheethead]

Hardy is really putting the Brewers in a terrible position this year. Not only will an arbitrator take into account his career year last year when deciding his 2010 salary, but he is playing his value down to an all time low. Melvin will end up having to take peanut shells for him, or over pay him and trade Escobar.

 

He should have been traded in the past offseason for pitching help. It wouldn't have been popular, but for a guy who was coming off back to back seasons of production way above what anyone thought his ceiling would be, his dramatic falloff this year shouldn't have been all that shocking.

[Gobias Industries]

He should have been traded in the past offseason for pitching help. It wouldn't have been popular, but for a guy who was coming off back to back seasons of production way above what anyone thought his ceiling would be, his dramatic falloff this year shouldn't have been all that shocking.

Meh. I think you're being way too results oriented. Ever since the second half of JJ's rookie year, he's been an above average SS. With him nearing his prime, why would one expect a dropoff of this proportion?

 

Escobar has had a pretty good season at Nashville, but he was FAR from a sure thing offensively coming into the year. Kind of how JJ was in 2005, when they brought him up a couple months too early, and now we're forced to make a decision on him a year earlier than we should. Why make the same mistake twice?

[JohnBriggs12]

I'll be honest, if we win a World Series within the next few years and it's without Hardy, Fielder, Braun, or Weeks, and to a lesser extent Hart, it will be slightly bittersweet to me. Still mostly sweet (I'm sure I'll cry I'll be so happy), but I want it to be with the "core."

Some of us felt the same way about the 82 team being without Sixto Lezcano who was an enormous part of the 78 and 79 teams that captured the hearts of Brewer fans. But it usually happens that way that some guys who helped in the building aren't there for the finished product.

 

The bottom line was Sixto was the key piece to get Fingers, Vukovich and Simmons, so he played a huge part in the AL championship even though he himself was gone.

[Invader3K]

Since I think our window to have a legitimate chance to win a World Series is probably this season and the next couple years, I would think it will definitely happen with Braun, Fielder, and Co.