Why is J.J. getting a free pass?

[dlk9s]

JJ shouldn't be given a free pass and has single-handedly sunk the Brewers on offense tonight, again. Escobar at this point would be a much better choice if someone would deal for Hardy.

Where were you when he tore things up during the homestand?

 

He didn't single-handedly sink the Brewers on offense tonight.

[BrewCrewForever]

With Escobar clearly going to be the SS in 2010 anyway, I'm 100% on board with dealing JJ now for pitching and bringing up Escobar now. I know we will not loose anything on defense with Alcides, probably gain some. And as for offense Escobar might not have 8 HR but I bet he can hit better or at least the same that JJ is right now.

[TheCrew07]

The time to trade JJ for pitching was last off-season, but that bandwagon had plenty of room at the time. I'd be shocked if they could get big league pitching for JJ now, we'd be looking at prospects which probably won't help us this year anyway.

[JJHardy7]

The time to trade JJ for pitching was last off-season, but that bandwagon had plenty of room at the time. I'd be shocked if they could get big league pitching for JJ now, we'd be looking at prospects which probably won't help us this year anyway.

 

Why do you think that? If he goes on one of his tears, I still think we could get a pretty nice haul for him. I do think we might get more for him this year than next year though and that's another debate I guess.

[TheCrew07]

Because he's a glorified rental now, and rentals tend to get traded for prospects, deals for MLB pitching with longevity happen in the off-season... Haren, Volquez, Garza, Jackson off the top of my head (side note, I liked Jackson as I like most of the Rays pitchers, but I really missed the trend in his career)... I felt through last season and this off-season that there were plenty of arms that were potential candidates, but my goodness did that well run dry in a hurry. If we could get the next Kazmir I'd be all for making a deal like that today, but looking around the minors there just aren't any deals popping out at me this year like years past. I'm sure there's someone that I'm overlooking outside of the players I've coveted for a long time like Neftali Feliz, but the organizations that have stud pitching in AAA and AA don't really need the services of a SS today.

 

To get value we had to give value. 3 years of Fielder or 2 years of Hardy was significant value... 1 season and 2 months of Hardy (giving him time to hit a hot streak again) screams prospects to me. I don't see Fielder going anywhere in season.

[pretendastronaut]

Trading JJ now only means Macha finally has a way to play McGehee, Counsell, and Hall in the same lineup.

 

I'm only half joking.

[Never Outhustled]

I want to know how people can argue against Escobar when his offensive numbers in the minors as he's growing into his body have gotten better than JJ's were in AA and AAA.

For 2 reasons:

 

1. This statent isn't factually true. Re-check your stats and ages.

 

2. We're not comparing 22 year Hardy to 22 year old Escobar. Hardy was the most valuable player on the team last year. If we could call up the 26 year old version of Escobar, then count me in bigtime. Unfortunately, I don't have a time machine. Hardy will be significantly more valuable this year by the time the seasons over.

[Postseason2006]

JJ shouldn't be given a free pass and has single-handedly sunk the Brewers on offense tonight, again. Escobar at this point would be a much better choice if someone would deal for Hardy.

Where were you when he tore things up during the homestand?

 

He didn't single-handedly sink the Brewers on offense tonight.

 

And where is he in the last 3 games? I want someone more consistent with all the inconsistent players we have.

 

And X Cellence, you might actually want to compare their stats. The Brewers could also use more spend in the lineup than what JJ offers.

[endaround]

JJ Hardy Age 20 in Hunstville (back when it was an extreme pitching environment):

279 .368 .428 .796

Escobar Age 21 in Hunstville

328 .363 .434 .797

JJ Hardy Age 21 in AAA (shortened)

277 .330 .495 .825

Escobar Age 22 in AAA

.297 .345 .419 .764

[Postseason2006]

Exactly, you aren't exactly losing out on offensive production w/ those numbers.

[naivin]

Hardy was the most valuable player on the team last year.

? This is not a knock on Hardy because I get and agree with exactly what you're saying, but let's not get carried away. Braun, Fielder, Sabathia were all far less replaceable than Hardy last year.

[Ennder]

Hardy was the most valuable player on the team last year.

? This is not a knock on Hardy because I get and agree with exactly what you're saying, but let's not get carried away. Braun, Fielder, Sabathia were all far less replaceable than Hardy last year.

Hardy was the most valuable position player on the team last year with Cameron being the 2nd most valuable. Fielder was 4th and he really wasn't close to the top 3(Braun was 3rd obviously). That is last year though and a one year sample doesn't always tell the real story.

[The Truth]

I don't like how Hardy says he won't switch positions. I don't like how he says he doesn't like hitting 8th (and played like it today). That's not the team first attitude I look for in players, and he doesn't back up the 'tude with incredible play either.

 

The day the Brewers trade Hardy and promote Escobar, I'll be thrilled

[JJHardy7]

To get value we had to give value. 3 years of Fielder or 2 years of Hardy was significant value... 1 season and 2 months of Hardy (giving him time to hit a hot streak again) screams prospects to me. I don't see Fielder going anywhere in season.

Well...if we trade him now the team gets one full year with him. I know you weren't 100% happy with what we gave up for CC. Not that JJ is CC, but if you get a stud prospect pitcher that is in AA or AAA he could easily be in Milwaukee next year. That may not help this team this year...but what would you do? Something obviously has to be done with JJ/Escobar. It's easy to complain about one way or another, but something will be done. Escobar is proving he can hit and I know he won't have JJ's power for a few years IMO, but I'm willing to move him if the right deal is there. We lack pitching at AA and AAA more or less in a major way. Getting a stud at any of those levels would make me happy for JJ. This team really needs to either trade for another starting pitcher or move a guy like JJ when he may have more value now than he does a year from now when he really is a rental player. I'm not saying this team can't win, but they need more starting pitching to win...I'd rather not trade a bunch of prospects to do that. I'd roll the dice and trade Hardy (if the value is there) and get Escobar's 'feet wet' (by that I mean you actually play him) and see what happens.

[TheCrew07]

I don't disagree about getting help for next season, but the problem I see is that the teams with good pitching in AA or AAA are in the division or not in a position to compete this season. Both Baltimore and Toronto have prospects I like, but would either dump pitching for JJ if they aren't realistically competing for the WC or the Division? Texas isn't going to trade for Hardy, or at least they shouldn't, but I can hope... Buchholz is probably the best pitcher in AAA who plays for a team that could use a SS, and Boston could actually afford to sign Hardy long-term if they choose, but I'm not sure how realistic that deal is. Other prospects I like are in the Reds and Dodger organizations, I'm not into trading Hardy to our WC competition as long as we're still in the race.

 

I'm looking at teams with pitching that would like a SS or a package built around a C prospect. Normally you wouldn't think a SS or a stud C prospect would be tough to move, but again as I look at pitchers I might want to acquire, I don't see realistic deals out there at this time.

 

Maybe I just have a different perspective this season, but last year it seemed like I could come up with deals everywhere, this season I'm coming up empty.

[Diskono]

Exactly, you aren't exactly losing out on offensive production w/ those numbers.

Yeah, and remember how awesome Hardy's bat was during his rookie season?

[Postseason2006]

I also recall Hardy missing most of his AAA season(2004) on the disabled list too. Your point?

[Diskono]

My point is that Hardy was horrible offensively in his rookie year, despite putting up better numbers in AAA than Escobar is currently. So you very easily could be losing out on offensive production quite a bit.

 

Either way though, Escobar is having a good season offensively in AAA, but those numbers still aren't even as good as Hardy's last three seasons in the majors. I just don't see how you could expect Escobar to be as good. You could certainly hope, but expecting it is very unrealistic IMO.

[Postseason2006]

despite putting up better numbers in AAA than Escobar is currently.

What numbers are you going by BA and OBP? Something Escobar is higher than him in? Again, he's got 23 doubles, 5 triples, 3 homers, and a ton of speed. I do not understand this complete love for Hardy who is so inconsistent.

 

Also, JJ missed most of 2004 before winning the job in 2005. You comparing what someone will do healthy vs someone coming back from an injury is like comparing a hockey team to a football team. There are no comparisons.

 

but those numbers still aren't even as good as Hardy's last three seasons in the majors.

Last 3? Are you talking 2009 or 2006 which are not at all impressive.

[Diskono]

What numbers are you going by BA and OBP? Something Escobar is higher than him in? Again, he's got 23 doubles, 5 triples, 3 homers, and a ton of speed. I do not understand this complete love for Hardy who is so inconsistent.

I was just looking at the OPS that endaround posted earlier, which Hardy's was significantly higher. I'm not really big on the consistent vs streaky hitter thing (IMO its just all a huge coincidence), but do we know that Escobar is any better? He's seemed fairly streaky to me, and his career month-to-month splits jump around just as much, if not more.

Also, JJ missed most of 2004 before winning the job in 2005. You comparing what someone will do healthy vs someone coming back from an injury is like comparing a hockey team to a football team. There are no comparisons.

Impossible to be sure of this, but the point is that 1) the transition from AAA to the majors is not always seamless, and 2) a player's major league numbers are almost always going to be worse than in AAA. If Hardy's injury makes those points moot, then look at Rickie Weeks instead. Or just about every other player in the history of baseball.

Last 3? Are you talking 2009 or 2006 which are not at all impressive.

Last 3 combined including this, so 2007, 2008 and 2009. Which are better than what Escobar is doing in AAA. As someone else mentioned, if we could plug in a 26 year old Alcides Escobar right now, I'd be all for it. But right now, if he replaced Hardy, we'd be looking at a sub-.300 OBP, .650ish OPS player according to his MLE. That may not be much different from Hardy's current line, but Hardy has always been much better in the past, while Escobar is probably about as good as he'll get for this point in his career. I'll be shocked if Hardy doesn't match his career .264/.325/.434 by the end of the season, and I'd be equally shocked if Escobar gets anywhere near that this season. Unless we're going into rebuilding mode, you have to stick with Hardy.

[Postseason2006]

You just said JJ has better stats in the last 3 years and you picked 2009.

Let's see.....225 BA, .298 OBP and a OPS of .653 which includes a .365 slugging percentage. Then throw in the blazing speed of JJ with 5 career steals.


Vs Escobar's stats of which isn't better? Hmm....2008 season when he batted .328, an OBP of .363 and had an OPS of .797.

but those numbers still aren't even as good as Hardy's last three seasons in the majors.

Well, there goes that theory. And I noticed how you changed the wording to try to fit your argument.

What numbers are you going by BA and OBP? Something Escobar is higher than him in? Again, he's got 23 doubles, 5 triples, 3 homers, and a ton of speed. I do not understand this complete love for Hardy who is so inconsistent.

I was just looking at the OPS that endaround posted earlier, which Hardy's was significantly higher. I'm not really big on the consistent vs streaky hitter thing (IMO its just all a huge coincidence), but do we know that Escobar is any better? He's seemed fairly streaky to me, and his career month-to-month splits jump around just as much, if not more.

Also, JJ missed most of 2004 before winning the job in 2005. You comparing what someone will do healthy vs someone coming back from an injury is like comparing a hockey team to a football team. There are no comparisons.

Impossible to be sure of this, but the point is that 1) the transition from AAA to the majors is not always seamless, and 2) a player's major league numbers are almost always going to be worse than in AAA. If Hardy's injury makes those points moot, then look at Rickie Weeks instead. Or just about every other player in the history of baseball.

Last 3 combined including this, so 2007, 2008 and 2009. Which are better than what Escobar is doing in AAA.

You might want to do some refiguring because this season alone is better than what those 3 average.

[TooLiveBrew]

I find it pretty funny that you're clamoring for the streaky Escobar to replace the 'inconsistent' Hardy. There are no baseball players that aren't streaky. It always is funny to me when people complain about someone being streaky. All that tells me is that player isn't hitting well at the moment.

[logan82]

Diskono wrote:

I'll be shocked if Hardy doesn't match his career .264/.325/.434 by the end of the season

I wouldn't. Hardy would be hard pressed to match those numbers with his poor start. From this point on, I think he can match those numbers. Look at Weeks last year. He had a poor start and low numbers at the end of the year. From about June on he matched his career numbers for the most part.

[crewcrazy]

Yeah, Hardy would have to go on some kind of tear to finish the year at his career averages. Fangraphs has his adjusted projections now at .246/.315/.404, finishing at 19 HR and 71 RBI. That assumes a line of .265/.329/.451 the rest of the way, and a closer-to-normal .281 BABIP.

 

At this point, I'd take a Weeks-like hot streak, though. Hopefully some of the scorchers he's been hitting lately start to fall soon.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why does everyone insist on comparing Escobar to Hardy? Other than playing the same position, they are 2 completely different type players. Hardy is one of the slowest runners on the Brewers. He's a base clogger. One reason Hardy is so streaky is that he never legs out any hits. If he's not centering the ball, he doesn't get hits.

 

Escobar is just the opposite. He's on pace for over 50 steals this year. He puts pressure on the defense. He gets hits even when he's not swinging the bat all that well.

 

You want to compare Escobar to anyone, compare him to Reyes and H. Ramirez. His minor league numbers compare favorably to both of those guys. He hasn't yet developed the power of Ramirez, but Ramirez didn't show that power in the minors either.