Why is J.J. getting a free pass?

[GB12]

I agree, and it's interesting Hardy has the opposite problem. He almost never swings at the first pitch, which often times seems to be a fastball right down the middle. He's just not a good enough hitter to have a 0-1 count all the time.

I meant to post this a while ago, but forgot about it. I saw a stat that JJ had only swung at like 14 first pitches all season. This was a week or two ago that I saw that, but that's ridiculous how little he swings at the first pitch. The could very well be contributing to his poor season at the plate. I wonder if it's something that has been pointed out to him by one of the coaches. You'd think they would have, but he hasn't changed that so I don't know.

[homer]

I would only worry about Hardy not swinging at the first pitch if it's something completely different from what he's done earlier in his career. My guess is that he's looking for one pitch in a certain spot and if he doesn't get it he doesn't swing. I'd also be willing to guess that when he does get that pitch he hits for a very high percentage. Complete guess on my part though.

 

EDIT:

 

Hardy swung at the first pitch 24 times in 2008 and 26 times in 2007. He's swung at the first pitch 6 times this year so he's on pace for about 15 - below his average but that could change over the course of a game or two.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=hardyjj01&year=Career&t=b

[Ennder]

That shows the number of times he put the first pitch in play, if he swings and misses or fouls it off it doesn't count it.

[jeffy]

...that's ridiculous how little he swings at the first pitch. The could very well be contributing to his poor season at the plate. I wonder if it's something that has been pointed out to him by one of the coaches. You'd think they would have, but he hasn't changed that so I don't know.

It was mentioned that Macha had said something about this in Sunday's J-S, so I am sure the coaching staff and Hardy are aware of it.

[homer]

That shows the number of times he put the first pitch in play, if he swings and misses or fouls it off it doesn't count it.

 

Gah! I knew I screwed that up.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I would only worry about Hardy not swinging at the first pitch if it's something completely different from what he's done earlier in his career. My guess is that he's looking for one pitch in a certain spot and if he doesn't get it he doesn't swing. I'd also be willing to guess that when he does get that pitch he hits for a very high percentage. Complete guess on my part though.

Exactly. He is annually among the top handful of hitters in MLB in percentage of first pitches taken. It has never stopped him from hitting before. For better or worse, that's how he likes to approach an at bat.

 

It isn't like opposing teams are just figuring this out now, either. He's actually seen a lower percentage of first pitch strikes this year than the last two years by around 6%, as I posted in the Sveum thread.

[Thurston Fluff]

I was just looking at JJ's career stats compared to this season. I was surprised that despite getting on base at a sub .300 clip his OBP is only about 30 points lower than his career norm. His career OPS is 737 which is ok but not all OPS's are created equal. The heavier the slugging the less chances of scoring runs. Just how valuable is he if he can only get on base at a .325 clip unless he can also be a gold glove caliber fielder or hit for even more power? With a heavy slugging OPS shouldn't we expect him to produce closer to .800 or am I out of whack on that? How much of a drop off would we see if we had the better fielding shortstop who got on base at the same rate but less power? I don't want him traded this summer but think he could very well be replaced in the winter without any drop off at all.

[Fatter than Joey]

And except for his very low BAbip. All this lends credence to those who are saying he's hitting the ball hard, just right at defenders.

 

I think that this is true to some degree... but I think a lot, or some of this argument is hopeful hand-waving.

 

For the last 2 seasons, Hardy's EBH rate was at ~9% and HR ratio was at ~23ABS/HR. This year his EBH% is at ~5% and His HR ratio is at 39ABs/HR.

 

Now, it seems to me if Hardy was "hitting the ball hard at defenders" -- his BA/EBH% would drop -- however, his HR rate would probably stay about the same -- again assuming Hardy is making good contact, but getting robbed, he loses singles, and maybe some doubles -- but his HRs are not going to be hit at defenders.

 

I think to some degree he is unlucky -- I think to a larger degree he is having a bad year.

[Weirdos19]

I think the microscope would be on JJ more if Weeks were healthy. Then McGehee and Counsell would be platooning at third.

 

I think the discussion would then be, "Why isn't Counsell playing more?"

 

And, JJ doesn't continually flail at the curve in the dirt with 2 strikes on him. Hart and Hall are basically out when they get to two strikes.

[Diskono]

Hardball Times did an analysis on the new HITf/x data, which gives us information on how hard and which direction a ball is hit. They only have data for April so far, but during that month, Hardy was the second-unluckiest hitter in baseball:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/using-hitf-x-to-measure-skill/

 

Kind of goes along with what most people are saying.

[logan82]

Those 5 hits, if they are all singles, add about 47 points of OPS. That is a huge swing.

 

How much did those 5 hits add last night?

[joepepsi]

43 points added to his OPS. From .634 to .677

[logan82]

Not all of hits were singles either though. His OPS is still pretty sad looking, but only 5 hits makes a big difference.

[dlk9s]

Those 5 hits, if they are all singles, add about 47 points of OPS. That is a huge swing.

 

How much did those 5 hits add last night?

43 points (4 hits, one walk).

[tigerbrew]

I really hope Macha don't move JJ out of the 2 hole. I believe it would best to stick with JJ at 2 long term, much like Braun at 3 and Prince at 4.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I agree. Though the downside with JJ is that he doesn't have the speed of a guy you would typically like high in the order.

[tigerbrew]

Macha is pretty conservative on the running game anyway, the Brewers are dead last in stolen bases. I don't blame Macha though, I wouldn't want the #2 hitter to attempt steals with Braun and Prince up next.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think stolen bases is the issue. It's speed to get from 1st to 3rd, speed to beat out IF singles, speed to avoid a DP, etc. Hardy is a good guy to have at the plate for hit and run, not that Macha does much of that anyhow. It would be nice to have your #2 guy be able to bunt very well- for moving runners over and bunting for a hit. But again, that's not a big part of Macha's game. For me, OBP is the most important thing I'm looking for in a #2 hitter. Hardy doesn't fit the bill there, but I'm not sure who you would put there. McGehee is working nicely in the #5 hole. About the only other way to go is Gamel in the #2 hole vs righties...assuming he plays again. Hart would work there too...it's pretty even between him and Hardy.

[Postseason2006]

JJ shouldn't be given a free pass and has single-handedly sunk the Brewers on offense tonight, again. Escobar at this point would be a much better choice if someone would deal for Hardy.

[jwill535]

Well at this point you would expect it to be a wash offensively and defensively with only AE running ability being the only advantage. While AE's defense is really good, it isnt that much drastically better then JJ's to warrant him playing time.

[Postseason2006]

I want to know how people can argue against Escobar when his offensive numbers in the minors as he's growing into his body have gotten better than JJ's were in AA and AAA. Then throw in the fact that Hardy can not put the ball in play.

[Invader3K]

Well, definitely it's going to be "put up or shut up" time in regards to what the Brewers want to do with Escobar soon enough.

[JJHardy7]

That is why you call it lucky even though it is really just natural variation I guess.

I know I'm late to the party, but I believe you yourself have called it luck on more than one occasion....that's why I brought it up. Is it luck when a should be out is a hit? Where can we count those? Calling things luck when they go against the hitter forgets the luck that went for the hitter. Where is the natural variation for that? I just don't buy 'luck' over the long haul. If you want to say it happens over 2 - 3 seasons...fine, but I don't see luck/natural variation playing a huge factor in one season. True all-star players don't have that type of variation. JJ can be an all-star and probably will be again...he's just not one that will be every year. I don't think JJ is a bad hitter by any means, but I do think that he might not be a very consistent hitter...which in turn I'd rather have a more consistent hitter even though I really like JJ. I'm fine with calling it 'natural variation', but at the same token if JJ is going to be so up and down we should all hope he ends up on a high note this year so we can trade him. I've been anti-trading Hardy for a long, long time, but at this point it's Escobar's job next year. Luck or variation is all great or we can make up a new word...he just isn't consistent. My guess is right now he wouldn't haul that much in a trade so we need to hope he ends up on a high note. Again, I love JJ and I think he's a good player. We just don't need a hitter like him on the team in the future. We have enough streaky guys on this team.

[Postseason2006]

I said in the offseason the Brewers should've traded Hardy for pitching. The Brewers are not going to win the division with what they have for pitching. They have an extra shortstop right now and Melvin needs to start doing some work.

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers are not going to win the division with what they have for pitching.

 

Adding a guy that's questionable with the bat to an already inconsistent lineup doesn't seem like a recipe for winning the division either. And trading Hardy now wouldn't make much sense, as his value is greatly reduced by his play so far this year.