Why is J.J. getting a free pass?

[logan82]

JJ has just been unlucky. I think it is really that simple.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just reading some of the recent replies sums up how JJ is looked at. Saying he has hit the ball hard and blah blah and its more than just stats

 

'Blah blah blah' is discouting facts & saying, "I know 'cuz I've seen it". Honestly not sure how anyone can have watched the season to this point & even begin to think that Hardy has been as bad in his approach as Hall & Hart (or that J.J. hasn't been hitting the ball hard... what?). Like has been posted, Hardy has been negatively impacted mostly by bad luck. Hart & Hall have been negatively impacted by poor approaches & lack of plate discipline.

[pretendastronaut]

To discount people's posts about Hardy's year, in that you think it's just because they like Hardy, and don't like Hall or Hart, is a position with no basis.

[brewcrew7]

I'm sorry but saying JJ has a good approach at the plate is just wrong. He may have hit some balls hard and has tricked you into thinking he is just not getting the hits but he strikes out and look awful at the plate like the others. And he does not situational hit at all. He swings hard and wherever the ball goes. He is not the guy who thinks about moving runners or anything like that. His approach is to hit the ball wherever it may happen to go. And JJ has not hit the ball that well. No! Because outfielders have made a couple sliding catches means that he has hit the ball hard? I said I will give him 5-7 hits from all this hard hitting he has been doing I guess. That will not help his stats any. That is my point and how bad he has been. Those hits will not help.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd really like to hear you qualify these points with more than just, "Because I said so!"

[logan82]

Those 5 hits, if they are all singles, add about 47 points of OPS. That is a huge swing.

[JJHardy7]

Ok I know i just commented but I needed to ask about this. How is Weeks on that list? I love the guy and think he has the tools, but he has been hurt quite a bit and really hasn't put anything together consistently except for the first two months of this season.

 

I agree about Weeks. I do think he'll fit into the long-term plans though because his price won't be as high due to how he just hasn't been able to maintain it for a long period of time. We may get a deal with him when/if he puts it all together.

 

I think JJ will be fine. I think one thing that I can't stand though is how some just say who is lucky and who isn't. JJ gets paid to get on base and when he's not he's not doing his job. Over the course of the season those 'amazing catches' that aren't hits will balance out with seeing eye singles. I'm sure some of JJ's hits this year were rather weak (same can be said about all hitters). For how unlucky a hitter can be at times, it's not a one way street. I think over the course of the season luck will have little to do with a player's statistics. JJ is just a pretty streaky hitter and to me I think it's all about his vision. When he's seeing the ball he's on fire and when he's not he goes south pretty quick. I personally think Escobar knocking on the door and trade rumors are getting to him. Nobody else on the team really has a position player in AAA that looks like they could take a starting job at the major league level this year besides JJ.

[theavrock]

I'm sorry but saying JJ has a good approach at the plate is just wrong. He may have hit some balls hard and has tricked you into thinking he is just not getting the hits but he strikes out and look awful at the plate like the others. And he does not situational hit at all. He swings hard and wherever the ball goes. He is not the guy who thinks about moving runners or anything like that. His approach is to hit the ball wherever it may happen to go. And JJ has not hit the ball that well. No! Because outfielders have made a couple sliding catches means that he has hit the ball hard? I said I will give him 5-7 hits from all this hard hitting he has been doing I guess. That will not help his stats any. That is my point and how bad he has been. Those hits will not help.

 

You should really do your math before you make these claims. If he had another seven hits his batting average would .255 less than ten points from his career average of .264, although it is almost 30 points lower than his average from last year. If you take into account he had a horrid start to the season he would be very close to his career norms. So as I and other have said his numbers right now can be almost exclusively explained by the fact that he had a bad start to the season (which will even out) and has a very low BABIP, he is unlucky (which will also even out) I am also going to assume that you don't know what BABIP is because you haven't said anything to refute what multiple posters are saying about most of his numbers being due to luck. Here is a great article on it

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/

[Ennder]

I think one thing that I can't stand though is how some just say who is lucky and who isn't. JJ gets paid to get on base and when he's not he's not doing his job. Over the course of the season those 'amazing catches' that aren't hits will balance out with seeing eye singles.

 

But they don't even out, they take at least 1000 plate appearances to even out which is why AVG and BABIP do not stabalize until 1000 PA. It is like trying to judge a pitcher by ERA over a single season, the stat itself is flawed when it comes to judging a player. We have a history of production built for JJ and we have some stats that stabalize over smaller than a full season and those stats for him are right around his career norms. The only stat that is really out of line for him is the one that tends to fluctuate wildly year to year. That is why you call it lucky even though it is really just natural variation I guess.

 

If you just take 'box score' stats at face value over a 2 month period you aren't going to learn anything about the player.

[monty57]

It is because he is JJ and people like him. When Hall, Hart, or Weeks struggle people wanted him gone and it was a topic in the blogs and all over this board.

I loved Hall back when he could hit, and was ecstatic when he signed his big contract. The problem is he forgot how to hit about five seconds after he signed the contract. I sat with the Hart family in a Spring Training game and they were some of the nicest people you'll ever meet. That doesn't change the fact that pitchers figured him out shortly after the All Star game last year, and he needs to make some adjustments or his career will be pretty short. As far as liking players goes, I like our whole team. There's not a personality on the team that you shouldn't like. However, some of the players aren't playing to the level needed on a championship caliber team. Others have explained why JJ is being let off the hook a little more than Hart or Hall, and I won't be able to do a better job explaining it than they have already done.

For the record, I hope they can all pick it up, but if I was a betting man, JJ would be the most likely to end the season with "good" numbers. Hall should be a pinch hitter vs. lefties and a defensive sub. If Hart doesn't make adjustments soon, he will likely be replaced or at least platooned as soon as a reasonable replacement is available. In Melvin's comments on Brewers 360 this morning, he said something to the effect of: Parra's spot would be filled from within the system if he can't right the ship, and we've picked up some left handed bats, and they just need to get some more playing time to get in a rhythm. I expect Macha will start playing them more often.

 

[homer]

JJ's had five bad weeks and four good ones. He'll be fine.

[BrewCrewForever]

Hardy does not really concern me at all. Hart has me a little concerned and I have pretty much given up on Hall, sad to say.

[benji]

Hart has me really concerned. I think of our young guys Hart is the one I dont want to sign to a long term deal. I believe Hardy will be fine. We all know he will have his month where he goes insane. His defense is still good. Hart, according to metrics, is a below average to average fielder and offensively is just bad right now. Personally I am still mad he swung at the first pitch and tapped out in the playoff game last year when the bases were loaded. I know that does not matter much going foward, but it seems to exaggerate the point that he has no plate discipline (april excluded). What has happened to him? His 2007 numbers were very good. 2008 went downhill in september and he has not recovered!

[FVBrewerFan]

Hardy doesn't get a free pass with me, neither does Cameron. You have to consider where these guys are i nthe lne-up as well. Hart buried in the 7th hole, you can live with someone struggling there for awhile. But when your #2 and #5 hitters are giving you almost nothing for an extended period, that really kills your run production.

 

Yes Cameron has 12 HR and was red hot, but he is spiraling downward rapdly. Hardy's stance is goofy (technical term) and I think prevents him from consistently hitting line drives. He has to pull his hands in, then up, close his fron foot, then swing all in a split second. That's just way too busy to have a consistent approach. Has he been "unlucky?" Sure, to a certain extent. But that is far from the sole reason he's struggling.

[joepepsi]

JJ's had five bad weeks and four good ones. He'll be fine.

Actually, he had a hot streak of 13 games and has been pretty bad the rest of the season.

. JJ's hot streak in May was really a 13 game stretch from May 3-21' date=' where he hit 340/400/560 over 55 plate appearances. Since then he's hit .130/.196/.127 over 51 plate appearances.[/quote']

[Yount19]

I wonder how much his back issues are contributing to his hitting woes. He seems to be fine after a day off or two.

[joepepsi]

Hardy doesn't get a free pass with me, neither does Cameron.....Yes Cameron has 12 HR and was red hot, but he is spiraling downward rapdly.

Cameron is more a case of regressing to his mean after a hot start. On May 3rd he was hitting 321/408/655. No one expected him to maintain that pace.

 

In his 110 at bats since then he's only hitting .227, but his OPS is .762. So he's able to still contribute even when the hits aren't falling. If he had 5 more hits in those 110 at bats he'd be hitting .272.

[FVBrewerFan]

But he doesn't have those 5 more hits. 5 more hits could have meant a win ot two, so it's not an insignificant number in a month of ABs. He could have had 5 less hits too, and be under Mendoza over the past month. But yes, I do cut him some slack because of the way he produced for the fisrt 5 weeks of the season or so. I'm looking at the future though. And I don't see him offering Braun/Fielder much protection for the next 4 months.

 

In fact, at this point Macha doesn't have anything to lose by putting Hart in the #5 spot (even #6). Before his tailspin last year he was extremely productive in that spot. OT, but I think Gamel needs to be moved up as well. I think the bottom of the line-up needs to be Cameron, Catcher, Pitcher.

[joepepsi]

I think Hardy is best suited batting 2nd or 5th. I'll take Cameron over Hart in the 5 slot though. Even hitting .227 Cameron's obp during this slump is .350-ish. And his power numbers are as good as Hart's or better at this point. It makes sense to go to lefty Gamel batting 6th.

 

Unfortunately it's going to be difficult for Hart to break out his slump batting 7th ahead of Kendall.

[Ennder]

Hart needs to be in the bottom of the order if he is going to keep swinging at the first 2 pitches every AB or even put on the bench. He is never going to succeed if he slips back into those bad habits.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hart isn't being pitched around when he's toward the bottom of the order, teams just realize the scouting report on him is that you don't need to throw him strikes to get him out. Until he improves his approach at the plate, he's not going to get anything good to hit. Fielder and Braun will get pitched around, pitchers just look like they're pitching around Hart because they feel he's bad enough to get himself out.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree, and it's interesting Hardy has the opposite problem. He almost never swings at the first pitch, which often times seems to be a fastball right down the middle. He's just not a good enough hitter to have a 0-1 count all the time. This team started the year following the seemingly simple concept of swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls- regardless of the count. Now I'm seeing guys biting on "pitchers' pitches." Off speed stuff low and away, fastball at the shoulders, etc. Even Braun is reaching at outside pitches more often, but he's good enough to foul them off at least. Now if I only knew the cure.

[joepepsi]

I agree, and it's interesting Hardy has the opposite problem. He almost never swings at the first pitch, which often times seems to be a fastball right down the middle. He's just not a good enough hitter to have a 0-1 count all the time.

I wonder if this is a conscious effort to improve his plate discipline. Two years ago his walk rate was 6.3%, last year 8.3%, this year. 9.6%.

 

His "strikes looking" are up to 41% vs. 35% last year. However, his strikeout rate is lower. His contact rate is the same. All those batting stats at baseball-reference.com show his 2009 as consistent with 2008 except for these I've mentioned. And except for his very low BAbip. All this lends credence to those who are saying he's hitting the ball hard, just right at defenders.

[logan82]

So as I and other have said his numbers right now can be almost exclusively explained by the fact that he had a bad start to the season (which will even out) and has a very low BABIP, he is unlucky (which will also even out)

 

I agree for the most part. Things will not really even out though. Whatever we though Hardy would hit at the start of the season, he isn't likely to reach those stats by the end of the season. He may meet those numbers from this point forward though. That is what I would expect or a little worse. I think we have to adjust our expectations down a little. Not much though.

 

My guess is that his BABIP is likely to end up around .270. He looks like a lower BABIP guy. Even if he had a .306 BABIP from here out, he would only pull his BABIP up to about .280.

 

In my opinion what is important is what Hardy does from here out. The best way to guess what that will be is looking at his 2006-2008 stats or a preseason projection and making a small adjustment down. What he has done this year so far should really only affect our expectations for the rest of the year.

 

Hardy "gets a pass" because unlike most of the other players mentioned, he was pretty good in 2008.

 

I am not sure I would like to see Hardy signed long term. He is likely to cost quite a bit and I think he will have either back or shoulder problems in the next few years. A nagging shoulder problem would explain the lack of power. It seems pretty similar to last year when he came out of spring training with a shoulder problem and the flu.

[FVBrewerFan]

Wouldn't surprise me if guys like Cameron, Hardy, and Hart were on the trading block later this year. Even if the Brewers are in contention, trading any of those guys may not be a bad move. Pitching, pitching, pitching and/or a young CF with a high OBP would be nice to have in return for any of those 3 guys.