My 6 picks

[Never Outhustled]

We did this last year, and I thought it was cool to look at after the fact. Here I go:

 

#26 Eric Arnette RHP - Hey, I can dream

#39 Kyle Heckathorn RHP - I have to get a closer look at a guy with this much power stuff, plus a good change-up

#47 Marc Kraus RF/1B - lefty power hitter with great plate discipline, more athletic than he looks

#73 Zack Von Rosenberg RHP - HS pitchers have slid the last few years, and this polished, athletic one falls in our lap

#74 Robert Stock RHP - fresh arm with pretty good power stuff, along with very good command and composure

#105 Jeremy Hazelbaker CF - 2 OFs from the MAC? (Kraus) He's among the nation's leaders in most categories, with good batspeed and great footspeed.

 

Bonus: I'll throw in 1 more, as I'm still intrigued by the most power in the draft , Chris Dominquez 3B/RF the righty swinging Russel Branyan.

Bonus 2: OK, I also have to throw in our favorite pitcher from The Canadian Junior National Team , Mike Monster. I'll say round 16, just like Stosh last year.

[colbyjack]

X, you have had some amazing luck getting your guys to the Brewers. I hope that continues tomorrow with your Arnett projection.

 

I'm not going to go six deep, since that may be a little too revealing, but in my mock draft that I just submitted to PGX I had the Brewers taking Matt Davidson.

 

Monster is also a favorite of mine. Scouts have had a hard time getting a good look at him this spring, but he was really good last fall in Jupiter, throwing in the lost-90s with very good sink.

[brewerguy71]

As I am relatively new to this board, I cannot comment on X's skill in predicting/wishing the Brewers pick their guy, but I have to say that not one of those 6 players interest me at all for the Brewers. I am not a fan at all of taking college closers in the top 5 rounds, and Arnett and Heckathorn both profile as relievers in pro ball. With the system being weak in pitching and the sheer lack of top shelf talent among its arms AA or above, I too feel college arms are the way to go, but feel that starters will make better picks. Kraus is a nice player, but I dont see him being more than a 4th OF in the majors, unless he can develop some power, which there is a question about. There is a lot of dreaming in the guys you pick, but just a little too risky for the Brewers in my opinion.

 

For that first pick I wouldnt mind seeing the Brewers select James Paxton or Andrew Oliver, Chad James or Chad Jenkins would be nice picks here as well, but they will both probably be gone. I would also be happy with Jared Mitchell or Tony Sanchez with the 26th pick (thats only if the Pirates dont completely lose their minds and take Sanchez 4th).

 

For the supplemental picks I would shoot for one arm and one bat. Rich Poythress would be a great pick at 39 if he were available and if he is gone, they can take Jeff Malm in the 2nd round or with that 47th pick. Brody Colvin, Madison Younginger or Victor Black are all nice options here or at one of the 2nd round picks.

 

And if they didnt pick up Mitchell at 26, I feel that a CF would be a wise pick somewhere in the 2 to 3 round area, a guy like Levon Washington or Brian Goodwin would be nice selections.

[Never Outhustled]

Kraus is a nice player, but I dont see him being more than a 4th OF in the majors, unless he can develop some power, which there is a question about.

He has bat speed, strength, and hit 27 HRs this year. I think his power questions have been put to bed.

 

Rich Poythress would be a great pick at 39 if he were available and if he is gone, they can take Jeff Malm in the 2nd round or with that 47th pick.

Poythress lacks bat speed, so I'd be shocked if the Brewers selected him. Malm is really interested, but is not thought to be signable.

 

And if they didnt pick up Mitchell at 26, I feel that a CF would be a wise pick somewhere in the 2 to 3 round area, a guy like Levon Washington or Brian Goodwin would be nice selections.

Those are both Boras clients. The only time the Brewers ever selected a Boras client was Laporta, who was a senior, thus having no leverage.

 

For that first pick I wouldnt mind seeing the Brewers select James Paxton or Andrew Oliver,

Oliver doesn't even throw a breaking ball, and Paxton got routinely knocked around this year, and might be too fragile for a big work load. Both are far more likely to be relievers than Arnett and Heckathorn. Heckethorn has 4 quality pitches, which gives him a very good chance to start. Theres just not a single reason to think Arnett won't start. Your going to need to explain that one.

[Pudster13]

I'll throw my 6 guesses into the ring:

 

#26 Matt Hobgood, RHP, California HS

#39 Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS

#47 Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M

#73 Jeff Malm, 1B, Nevada HS

#74 Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Florida HS

#105 Austin Maddox, C, Florida HS

 

 

I'd do cartwheels if some of these guys actually fell to our picks. I predict this will be one of the toughest first three rounds to predict in recent draft history.

[TheCrew07]

X I hope they take Dominquez for you this year, if so your rocket armed monster quote from last year is going to be my sig for a while.. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Jose Cardenal]

I'll play along, with an extra pick just for good measure.

 

1) E. Arnett RHP - College (Probably a dream, I also like C.Jenkins, G.Gould and T.Skaggs)

 

1s)K.Sampson RHP HS

 

1s)M.Krauss 3b/OF - College (I love power bats, and power arms. I thought I was the only one looking at him. Nice to see X ellance also on board)

 

2) J.Marks LHP - College

 

2) J.Phlegley C - College

 

3) B. Paulsen 1b - College

 

4)D.McCallum 2b - College (not a need but I like him)

 

I am not a "college guy" it just worked out that I have 6 of the 7 picks coming from the college ranks.

[brewerguy71]

"Your going to need to explain that one" Arnett is a heel banger and is poised for injury down the road. I also do not believe his changeup will play in professional ball. He is a prototypical back of the bullpen reliever. Hard, plus slider and big time velociy on his fastball. I see him as a reliever in pro ball if he stays healthy. You are right about Oliver, but I see him a lot like a Left handed version of Rich Harden. In my book changing speeds is just as important as a plus or above average Curve/Slider. I think he will be fine. He also does a great job of going up and down the ladder and using both sides of the plate. The fact that Goodwin and Washington are Boras clients is something I was not aware of, but seeing as how they wont be first or 2nd rounders, I dont see them as having tremendous leverage. I dont think Washington is going to bypass any respectable offer. And then Poythress vs Kraus, yes Kraus hit those HRs in the MAC. Only about a quarter of those HR came against Friday night starters. The numbers are about the same for Poythress, but he was facing much better competition week in and week out. I think they will both hit, with Poythress being like a Lyle Overbay type of player, but Kraus is going to wind up being a Left Fielder and without the power, he doesnt have as much value. Not to say either of us are wrong or right, we have different philosophies.

[bklynbrewcrew]

All I ask is that we dont pick a bunch of low ceiling Kyle Peterson types. I would also like to avoid a guy like Paxton who cant even get it done at a high level in college. I would love to take a shot at Scheppers if he is available.

 

I prefer the high risk picks. Hopefully we will pick a bunch of guys with high upsides and a few will pan out. Without Jack Z running the draft I am definitely a bit nervous.

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure if my mock draft is going to get up today, since I noticed they bumped David Rawnsley's final projection to the top of PGX's homepage. I wanted to copy and paste it though so my work was actually available before the draft kicks off, so here that is:

 

---------------------------------------------

 

Final Draft Projection

by Patrick Ebert

 

Here is my final stab at how the first round of the draft will shake out. Last year by this time I was fairly confident with how the top 10 picks would shake out, nailing the first six selections overall. That isn't the case this year, as the Padres pick at number three could very well set off a fairly significant chain reaction of which teams take which players.

 

Similar to Tanner Scheppers from a year ago, I think Kyle Gibson may fall out of the first round after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right forearm. Fortunately for Gibson it would appear as though six weeks of rest will help take care of the problem, meaning a team may be more willing to take him knowing they can still see him pitch a few times before the August 15th signing deadline, but the timing is bad regardless of the circumstances.

 

1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg

Alright, this pick has been in stone for quite some time, but what if the Nationals used that to their advantage and took Ackley first hoping to catch the teams that select from two through nine off-guard? Bad idea? Absolutely, but mock drafts are supposed to be fun, for someone.

 

2. Seattle Mariners - Dustin Ackley

There were some rumors that the Mariners were considering a different player with less than a week leading up to draft day, but I'm not buying that. It may take until August 15th to sign Ackley, but the deal will get done.

 

3. San Diego Padres - Donovan Tate

As noted above, this pick is going to dictate how most of the next 10-15 picks after this fall into place. The Padres are still showing a lot of interest in Tate, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them pluck Tyler Matzek here as he finished his season strong.

 

4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aaron Crow

With Kyle Gibson suffering a stress fracture, the Pirates will take Crow at least roughly knowing the kind of money it will take to get him in the fold. They also hope to have a little better luck with one of their first-round pitchers.

 

5. Baltimore Orioles - Zack Wheeler

This is another possible destination for Matzek, or Crow for that matter, but word has the Orioles hot on Wheeler's trail for the last month-plus. The O's have quite a few exciting power arms to look forward to, and Wheeler will give them another one to look forward to a year or two behind the likes of Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman.

 

6. San Francisco Giants - Tyler Matzek

Between Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have had some pretty good fortune developing power arms, and may have a few more on the way in Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson. They certainly aren't opposed to taking prep pitchers early, and would be thrilled to have Matzek fall here.

 

7. Atlanta Braves - Alex White

If either Wheeler or Matzek were to fall here, I would guess one of them would quickly become the Braves pick. Don't be convinced that Wheeler would be their first pick just because he pitches in their backyard, as Matzek was on their team in Jupiter last fall. The Braves have also been connected to Alex White, who re-asserted his status as a top 10 pick last Saturday with a dominating performance against East Carolina in the Super Regionals.

 

8. Cincinnati Reds - Tanner Scheppers

I haven't seen or heard the Reds connected to too many players, other than knowing they made sure to catch both Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers during their independent league stints. The team needs to continue to add arms to their system after graduating a few of their best to the big leagues.

 

9. Detroit Tigers - Jacob Turner

Similar to having Cameron Maybin ('05), Andrew Miller ('06) and Rick Porcello ('07) fall in their laps, the Tigers will be ready to pounce on Turner if he makes it this far.

 

10. Washington Nationals - Chad Jenkins

Jenkins and Drew Storen were in Washington recently for a workout, and the Nationals have stated that they intend to take two arms with their top two picks, looking to get them up to the big-leagues fairly quickly to join young hurler Jordan Zimmerman. I've also heard Grant Green's and Mike Trout's names associated with the Nats if they do go with a bat.

 

11. Colorado Rockies - Mike Minor

Minor could go as high as third overall to the Padres, and some are convinced he goes in the top 10 (Reds?) somewhere, somehow. I'm projecting he slides just past the top 10, with the Rockies ready to take him here. He fits the profile of the pitchers they like to take in the first round similar to Jeff Francis and Greg Reynolds in that he is known more for his command and three pitch repertoire than he is for his raw stuff.

 

12. Kansas City Royals - Grant Green

After opening the year as most people's number two draft-eligible prospect, Green has fallen this spring after not hitting for much power and showing shaky defense at the shortstop position. The Royals once again are prepared to sign a Scott Boras-advised player, which would mark the fourth time in four years they have done so.

 

13. Oakland Athletics - A.J. Pollock

I have heard players such as Tim Wheeler, Mike Leake and Mike Minor being thrown out as possibilities that could be selected by the A's. I think Pollock makes the most sense as a versatile player (he could be moved back to the infield) that has put up impressive numbers throughout his college career and also has proved that he can swing a wood bat (he hit .377 on the Cape last summer).

 

14. Texas Rangers - Shelby Miller

Would the Rangers sprint up to the so-called podium if Shelby Miller made it this far? Matthew Purke would also make sense for the Rangers if they are willing to meet his bonus demands.

 

15. Cleveland Indians - Eric Arnett

While teams like the A's and Blue Jays are the first ones thrown out when mentioning teams that almost exclusively draft college players, the Indians also heavily lean that way. They're said to be targeting college arms, with Arnett, Storen, Leake, Jenkins, Heckathorn and Brothers being among the more likely candidates.

 

16. Arizona Diamondbacks - Mike Leake

The D-Backs like the Indians would like to get a college arm with one of their two consecutive picks, and Leake makes way too much sense for them not to take him. Leake should go somewhere in the 13-19 range.

 

17. Arizona Diamondbacks - Bobby Borchering

After getting an arm with one of their two back-to-back picks, the D-Backs likely are going to snatch up one of the better hitters available in the draft, with Borchering looking like the next-best bat. Mike Trout could also be in the mix for this pick.

 

18. Florida Marlins - Drew Storen

Throw the Marlins into the group of teams targeting college arms with this pick. They have been scouting Arnett, and you could flip-flop this selection and the Nationals pick at #10 should they go with Storen.

 

19. St. Louis Cardinals - Rex Brothers

In a recurring theme, the Cardinals supposedly are looking at a handful of college arms, with a few lefties in the mix. Brothers fits the mold of pitchers the Cardinals have selected in recent years, with a power arm and questions about whether his future lies in the bullpen or as a starter.

 

20. Toronto Blue Jays - Chad James

While the Blue Jays are a team that usually target college players early, they have been hot on the trail of Chad James all spring, and seem prepared to take him at this selection. Brothers is also high on their on their list, as are Drew Storen and Chad Jenkins should any of them make it this far.

 

21. Houston Astros - Mike Trout

This is one pick I don't feel really good about. First of all, I keeping hearing how many teams are impressed with Mike Trout, yet I have him falling to the 21st pick. Secondly, the Astros are believed to be interested in outfielders, but haven't been connected to Trout. If Trout were to make it here, he would make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to add as much talent to their system as possible.

 

22. Minnesota Twins - Everett Williams

Could the Twins really take another prep outfielder? Why not? It's not like Denard Span stopped them from taking Ben Revere, and Revere didn't stop them from taking Aaron Hicks. Williams has excellent value at this spot, and offers the team yet another exciting five-tool talent.

 

23. Chicago White Sox - Raymond Fuentes

The White Sox are always good for a surprise, and I don't think GM values speed as much as Kenny Williams does. The White Sox are linked to most of the athletic outfielders that are projected to go somewhere in this range, but Fuentes gets the nod for his game-changing speed.

 

24. Los Angeles Angels - Matthew Purke

The Angels lost out on both Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia this offseason...alright that has little to do with who they'll take on draft day, but they are one of the teams out there that isn't afraid in taking a player that is perceived to be a more difficult sign. Purke offers incredible value at this spot as based on talent he's a top 10 pick.

 

25. Los Angeles Angels - Matt Hobgood

Southern California offers quite a few players that could be in the Angels crosshairs with these picks, including Hobgood, Matt Davidson, Max Stassi and Jiovanni Mier. They have had a knack developing power arms from within, and know the best way to do so is to stockpile them and hope a few stick.

 

26. Milwaukee Brewers - Matt Davidson

If Eric Arnett someway, somehow falls this far he will probably be the pick. Other players in the mix for this pick include Jiovanni Mier and Max Stassi, but the Brewers have a history of selecting players with the highest offensive upside, and that's Davidson here.

 

27. Seattle Mariners - Tim Wheeler

The Mariners may add a pair of bats with their first two picks if the draft shakes out this way. There are quite a few outfielders, particularly from the college ranks, that could be selected here, from Wheeler to Brett Jackson to Jared Mitchell.

 

28. Boston Red Sox - Max Stassi

Should someone like Matthew Purke or even Grant Green fall this far, this is where they are most likely to stop falling. Both the Red Sox and the Yankees are prepared to take such a player, like they have been the past several years. If that doesn't happen, Stassi is known to be high on the Red Sox wish list.

 

29. New York Yankees - Kyle Gibson

As noted, the Yankees may be poised to take a player that could be viewed as more of a risk financially. Gibson also poses a risk physically, and they may opt for a more safe pick since they will not receive compensation if they don't sign this pick. The Yankees have the resources to be patient following Gibson this summer.

 

30. Tampa Bay Rays - Wil Myers

I have a feeling that Myers' bat will cause him to be selected earlier than this, possibly as high as 10th to the Nationals or 12th to the Royals. Even if Myers isn't the pick, the Rays are thought to be keyed in a few prep catchers that could be available late in the first round.

 

31. Chicago Cubs - Brett Jackson

The Cubs are among the teams that are known to be hot for the athletic group of outfielders available. From Wheeler to Jackson to Pollock to Mitchell, they may have a few to choose from should a few of them slide further than expected.

 

32. Colorado Rockies - Tony Sanchez

Chalk up Sanchez as yet another player I don't necessarily feel will make it this far, as catchers in particular are more likely to get snatched up earlier than other positional players. And while the first round started off with a heavy run on pitchers, it could very well end with a heavy run on bats.

[colbyjack]

By the way, here's a couple of stories I wrote about Eric Arnett and Marc Krauss (as well as Minnesota's Derek McCallum) for those interested given the discussion:

 

Eric Arnett

 

Marc Krauss & Derek McCallum

 

If you couldn't tell, I, like X, believe if Arnett's future as a starter, and feel Marc Krauss' power surge should be viewed as a positive sign as good things to come.

[NastyTwig]

Would Slade Heathcott (HS OF Texas) and Richard Shaffer (HS 3B North Carolina) be out of the question with the supplemental picks? I love me some big high school bats.

[battlekow]

Heathcott apparently wants $2M to sign, so I would think that if he falls out of the first round, he'll last until the second round, because if a team pops him with a supplemental pick and can't sign him, they won't get that pick back next year.

[uwisfan]

nice call once again X

[southpaw121505]

nice call x...I wanted Mitchell or Davidson, so if he falls to us with our sandwich pick ill be thrilled with our first 2 picks

[igor67]

X might want to sell his picks.