2009-06-07 Brewers (Parra) at Braves (Hanson): 12:30 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 8-7]

[brewcrew7]

I dont get the questioning of Villy at all. Just because it didnt work but he has been awesome. There is not a perfect pitcher out there so it happens sometimes. But not bunting does make me upset.

[jwill535]

I fine with him in there. The problem I have is that you have to recognize that he doesnt have it and have someone ready.

[brewdude15]

ughhh....pissed this one away. Thanks Villy.

[derflotr]

Wow, it's really easy to be irritated with Mike Gonzalez...obnoxious.

[Ennder]

The questioning CV is just that he has been overworked a bit lately and looked flat but we didn't exactly have a lot of reliable arms to use in his place.

[The Big Cheese]

What are the odds we can send Carlos to the same city that Charlie Villenueva will be playing in next season for a REAL set up man?

 

I just don't think he has the mental makeup to be Hoffman's set-up man...

[bucks2281]

Villy pitched three days in a row. From the very start, he was hanging pitches and he was up. That should have been a red flag, IMO.

[BillyRed]

Has Kendall ever been pinch hit for? I would have preferred Rivera hit for Kendall and Cattanalotto hit where Rivera did. I have no use for Kendall at the plate late in a game.

[logan82]

Hopefully this doesn't put Villy back in Macha's doghouse. I doubt it will.

 

Close and late, I could go either way on a bunt.

[Mr QL]

Okay, maybe I could understand not bunting Gerut in Florida since there is at least a chance fior the ball to leave the infield(slim though) but Kendall? Seriously?

 

Ned Macha is starting to show his true colors

[Ennder]

Has Kendall ever been pinch hit for? I would have preferred Rivera hit for Kendall and Cattanalotto hit where Rivera did. I have no use for Kendall at the plate hit in a game.

Cattalanotto can't hit lefties. This is probably the only game we've been in all year where the left handed bench hurt us, though to be fair if he had saved Hall it wouldn't have been an issue, that is the downside of the defensive replacement.

[cheesecup22]

Bunting is a marginal play at best so do we really have to argue about it again? It might be right, it might be wrong but the difference between the two is something like 2-3% chance of winning the game so it just isn't worth it.

Maybe most of the time. But we have a .215 hitter up who hits everything on the ground. You have to bunt in that situation.

[Ennder]

Maybe most of the time. But we have a .215 hitter up who hits everything on the ground. You have to bunt in that situation.

 

Even then it is a marginal play, with a real hitter is a terrible play. Kendall has better odds of getting on base than hitting into a double play. Bunting with Kendall doesn't really increase our chances of scoring. It takes a bad hitting pitcher type of stats to actually make bunting a sure thing. I don't think it is a terrible choice, it just isn't a 'no brainer' either.

[markedman5]

Carlos has one bad appearence in his last 15 outing s and some of you think he might be in the dog house now?

 

 

Wow........Releif pitchers do give up runs once in awhile....the guy has been flat out dominant for a month.....lets calm down......we blew the game....it happens....

[BrewCrewForever]

Should have one this one, just slipped away. Villa has been fantastic, just hung some pitches today. It happens from time to time. Lets get ready for what should be a good homestand. It was nice to see Braun go deep twice, hopefully that will get him going.

[Ennder]

If we have to lose a game like this I'm glad it was against the Braves. They aren't in the division, they are a team I don't hate, I don't think they will compete for the wild card though they'll be over .500.

[sheetswannabe]

Ennder you say its only a 2-3% better chance, but the batter was Kendall, the king of grounders and DP's.

[cheesecup22]

Even then it is a marginal play, with a real hitter is a terrible play. Kendall has better odds of getting on base than hitting into a double play. Bunting with Kendall doesn't really increase our chances of scoring. It takes a bad hitting pitcher type of stats to actually make bunting a sure thing. I don't think it is a terrible choice, it just isn't a 'no brainer' either.

It actually does increase the chances of scoring after factoring in how poor of a hitter Kendall is. You move a runner into scoring position so we need only 1 hit to score. I would agree with you on not bunting on probably half of the Brewers position players, but I still do not understand not bunting Kendall.

[brewdude15]

What are the odds we can send Carlos to the same city that Charlie Villenueva will be playing in next season for a REAL set up man?

 

I just don't think he has the mental makeup to be Hoffman's set-up man...

He had been lights out for a long stretch, but when Macha decided to throw him out there for a third straight day, I can see why he was so off today. It would've been a much better decision to allow Coffey to start the 8th, and then maybe pitch Villy to finish the 8th if Coffey got in trouble or looked tired.

[sheetswannabe]

And how can someone say Villy isnt a good set-up man? He could be the best pitcher we have in the pen. Sure Hoffman seems untouchable but he throws 85 someones going to hit that too. Villy throws a ton of different pitches. I think Villy is a great set-up man, he was just a tad bit overused.

[jeffy]

It takes a bad hitting pitcher type of stats to actually make bunting a sure thing. I don't think it is a terrible choice, it just isn't a 'no brainer' either.

and then even if you do have a bad hitting pitcher, it might make more sense to pinch hit and still not bunt. I've had no problem with most of Macha's bunting/not bunting decisions. He mostly only has pitchers bunt and I think in those cases there is the added factor that you don't have your pitcher getting tired out running the bases if they bunt.

 

I'm not positive but I think the only time he has had a non-pitcher bunt it has been a situation where the winning run would be moved up by a succesful bunt.

[brewmann04]

macha should have never used villy this many day in a row and left coffey or smith pitch the 8

[logan82]

With a runner on first base and no outs, any hitter with an on-base percentage (OBP) of at least .206 and/or a slugging percentage (SLG) of at least .182 -- numbers that would encompass practically every hitter in the majors, including many pitchers -- should swing away. The only exception is when a team is playing specifically for one run, in which case the thresholds are a .282 OBP and/or .322 SLG.

On the second page of the article

 

Run Frequency matrix 1999-2002

 

Thread in Statistical Analysis Forum

[brewdude15]

As for Manny, I think he should be demoted to the bullpen for a while and see how McClung does in a couple starts. Manny's next start wouldn't be until Saturday vs. the Sox. I really don't see how a trip to AAA would be productive for him. He can pitch to AAA batters, he just needs to get his confidence back and not be so much of a chicken with its head cut off every time he takes the mound.

[Ennder]

But it doesn't increase our chances even with Kendall. They have studied this to death. If you want to complain about Macha there was a much bigger blunder he made that you guys could complain about. In the bottom of the 8th he brought in Bill Hall as a defensive substitution and brought in Villanueva to pitch. They have a LH closer. Why on earth did he not double switch and have Hall leading off the inning instead of having to burn McGehee there considering we had mostly lefties coming up.

 

Here is a quote from th bunting post on this site, you can find the link to the study at this link...

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=10845

 

With a runner on first base and no outs, any hitter with an on-base percentage (OBP) of at least .206 and/or a slugging percentage (SLG) of at least .182 -- numbers that would encompass practically every hitter in the majors, including many pitchers -- should swing away. The only exception is when a team is playing specifically for one run, in which case the thresholds are a .282 OBP and/or .322 SLG

 

Now the odds of winning a game on the road are lower than on home so playing for the tie on the road is a losing strategy so Kendall clearly passes the 2+ run stats and even if you would prefer to play for the 1 he is better than the playing for 1 stats. If you want to give him an extra knock for his groundball tendencies then it might become a marginal play to have him bunt but it clearly is not a no brainer. He gets on more often than he hits into a double play and a successful bunt doesn't really increase our odds of winning the game because the out you lose is just as important as the base you gain.