Hall Running Out of Time

[joepepsi]

Can someone refresh my memory? Didn't Turnbow accept his minor league assignment last year, because he would have lost his salary if he didn't? I don't know why I remember that as being true but it seems that was the case. If I am right, then what's different about Hall?

 

Wait...is it because Turnbow had an option left, so by refusing the assignment he'd become a free agent? But because Billy's a 5 year guy he can refuse the assignment and still not become a free agent?

[Ennder]

Gamel is in tonight for what it is worth.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

This wouldn't be a problem if Macha would quit using hitter vs pitcher stats to make lineup decisions and just stick with the RH/LH slits or even assume league average splits.

Seriously...can the Brewers please, at some point in my lifetime, hire a manager who understands how fantastically useless batter vs. pitcher splits are? If I were a GM, I'd be tempted to hire a manager who is old-school enough that he doesn't even know how to use a computer just so that I could take these things away from him. I have more respect for the "I went with my gut" defense for why a terrible player gets inserted in the lineup on a given day.

 

Imagine how laughable you'd find it if Macha said that Hall played yesterday because he is batting .450 this season on Thursdays, so long as the Thursday falls on an even day of the month, and Macha had eggs and toast for breakfast that day. If true (I made that up), that would have the same predictive power as 3-6 against a particular pitcher does. i.e. None whatsoever.

[rluzinski]

I wish the Hall-needs-to-make-adjustments crowd could explain themselves as well as posters in a thread I just found at sportsbubbler.com did. Basic description of his batting stance and mechanics. Spray charts, . A link to a video showing the timing of his swing. Actual evidence given and all done without anyone expressing their hatred for him. I found it very compelling. I wish we could do that.

[Ennder]

I don't have a big issue with using batter vs pitcher type splits. If say some pitcher is a soft tosser who relies on a good change up and Hall killed change up pitchers in his career(pretty sure he doesn't, that is just an example). Breaking it down to 1 hitter vs 1 pitcher is generally pretty weak though.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I don't have a big issue with using batter vs pitcher type splits. If say some pitcher is a soft tosser who relies on a good change up and Hall killed change up pitchers in his career(pretty sure he doesn't, that is just an example). Breaking it down to 1 hitter vs 1 pitcher is generally pretty weak though.

Who uses batter vs. "pitcher type" splits though? I mean, above and beyond the totally obvious one (platoon differential)? Has anybody even been able to demonstrate meaningful differences (i.e. differences that can be expected to continue to be present in future performance) in batter performance against, say, power 4-seam flyball RHP as opposed to 2-seam groundball RHP?

 

To my knowledge, no one has. And unless the Rays or Red Sox or A's or somebody has this data and is using it proprietarily and completely in secret, I don't think any major league teams are using such splits.

 

I agree, in principle, that you could probably get a large enough sample of PAs against a pitcher category such that you'd have statistically significant performance differentials. I just don't know that anybody's succeeded in showing that such differentials actually exist (again, beyond platoon differential).

[rluzinski]

The Book did some work on pitcher types, to see if they could tease out some correlations. Nadda. Some franchises might have a internal data that shows meaningful splits but I'm pretty sure we can rule out the Brewers. We are stuck with 6 AB samples.

[Ennder]

Who uses batter vs. "pitcher type" splits though?

 

I use them in fantasy sometimes, you can look at matchup ratings that tell you how a player has fared against pitchers like the one they are facing that day. As an example BJ Upton is slugging .781 in 32 ABs vs. pitchers like Hughes since last year. If they had that type of data and they were using it for pitching matchups it wouldn't bother me (with a bigger than 32 AB sample of course)

 

 

I'm sure some managers use them in theory. Hart can't hit a slider to save his life so he might sit more often against someone who throws a good slider, some managers have to do that kind of thing instinctively even if they don't have specific numeric data to back it up.

[Fatter than Joey]

Can someone refresh my memory? Didn't Turnbow accept his minor league assignment last year, because he would have lost his salary if he didn't?

 

Someone can correct me if I do not recall things correctly....

 

Turnbow was put on outright waivers which are non-revocable, and used when a team wants to remove a player from the 40 man, but keep them in the minors.

 

The difference between Hall and Turnbow, is that (presumably) the Brewers would not want to remove Hall from the 40man as they did with Turnbow -- Turnbow could have been claimed, and the claiming team would have only have had to pay a pro-rated part of the minimum salary.

 

Hall's case (again presumably) would be more like Bush's where the Brewers would keep him on the 40man.

 

Hall has enough service time that he can tell everyone to pound sand.

 

Turnbow on the other hand had enough service time to refuse the assignment, had he cleared waivers -- however, he didn't have enough service time to keep his salary.

 

In conclusion, there isn't a situation you can't DFA your way out of.

[TheCrew07]

I wish the Hall-needs-to-make-adjustments crowd could explain themselves as well as posters in a thread I just found at sportsbubbler.com did. Basic description of his batting stance and mechanics. Spray charts, . A link to a video showing the timing of his swing. Actual evidence given and all done without anyone expressing their hatred for him. I found it very compelling. I wish we could do that.

If only we could all express ourselves in a concise manner without condensation like you do BF.net would be a better place.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=mil&playerID=407849&statType=1

 

There is the link to the hitting chart for Bill Hall. You have to switch between venues, but I just looked at Miller Park first of all. I noticed that he has a ridiculous amount of ground ball outs to the left side of the infield. They probably double every other hit, whether it is an out or not. That right there is a clear-cut sign that Hall has converted into a dead pull hitter. The most common out for a pull hitter is a grounder to the right side for a righty, and left side for a lefty. We always see the shifts for Fielder, but based on this hitting chart, I would do the same thing for Hall if I were opposing teams. From my count he has only 4 opposite field hits this year at Miller Park. EVERYTHING is to left field. We all saw that when Bill Hall was at his best, he was pounding balls to right and right-center field. This shows me his problem for sure.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It is interesting to look at his hitting chart for the '06 season. There are a ton of hits going from center field all the way to right field. I can notice a major difference. He had 10 HR's at Miller Park that year that were from CF to RF. It's amazing how much his approach has changed at the plate since then.

[Baldkin]

I wish the Hall-needs-to-make-adjustments crowd could explain themselves as well as posters in a thread I just found at sportsbubbler.com did. Basic description of his batting stance and mechanics. Spray charts, . A link to a video showing the timing of his swing. Actual evidence given and all done without anyone expressing their hatred for him. I found it very compelling. I wish we could do that.

Now you send me off scurrying for this thread at sportsbubbler...

[Invader3K]

I wish the Hall-needs-to-make-adjustments crowd could explain themselves as well as posters in a thread I just found at sportsbubbler.com did. Basic description of his batting stance and mechanics. Spray charts, . A link to a video showing the timing of his swing. Actual evidence given and all done without anyone expressing their hatred for him. I found it very compelling. I wish we could do that.

 

Do you really need to carry yourself like this here all the time? You're a smart guy, but you do realize you kind of come off as pretty elitist with comments like this, right?

[rluzinski]

Do you really need to carry yourself like this here all the time? You're a smart guy, but you do realize you kind of come off as pretty elitist with comments like this, right?

 

I want an intelligent discussion, void of a hundred "I hate Bill Hall!" posts." We should be able to do this:

 

http://community.sportsbubbler.com/forums/t/79843.aspx

 

It gets frustrating when I see "my" message board act like jsonline's or milwaukeebrewers.com's. I have come to expect more from this community.

[Invader3K]

I agree the "I hate Bill Hall" type posts can get old, but it's bound to happen occasionally.

 

I guess I don't like seeing "my" message board thrown under the bus because your expected level of discourse isn't being met, though. You can make your point without talking down to people.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I realize the condescending comments from rluzinski were probably directed at me. I never said "I hate Bill Hall". All I said is that Hall has stopped trying to go the other way like he did when he was successful. Watching as many Brewers games as I do it is very easy to see that Hall is trying to pull everything and I clearly remember Hall going the other way when he was successful. I dont think I was off base with my comments at all and I completely stand by them.

 

Bill Hall will not be successful again unless he stops being stubborn and listens to those like Dale Sveum who are trying to help him. If he insists on trying to hit HRs with every swing he will be relegated to late defensive replacement and pinch hitting at bats vs lefties.

[Weirdos19]

Bill Hall is a right field hitter that tries to pull everything. Pure and simple.

 

Almost every clutch hit he has had has been to right field.

 

So why does he pull every outside pitch to short? That's the question of the day.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Thanks for pointing out the scatter chart. It is very interesing that his concentration of pulls is more dramatic than Prince. Too bad, he can be pretty good when he drives the ball the other way.

[Teatoe993]

If Bill Hall did not suck, then I think we would see less "I hate Bill Hall" posts. Seriously, he has been a black hole going on over two years now. I don't doubt his desire to succeed and he seems to be an excellent teammate. But he has been hurting this team when he is at the plate. 3B is a typically a position for one of your better hitters. But he is so bad that it'd be tough to hide him at 2B or SS. I used to like Bill Hall, but I really think a lot of fans turned on him like me when he started with the "I wanna be traded." comments after being benched. That's when the serious Booing started.

[silversurferr]

I have been a big Hall (and Weeks) supporter, but it is time to convert him to a bench player. At this time, his greatest asset is his versatility: 3B, SS, 2B, OF. Haters must admit that he has greatly improved in the field at third. However, he just flat out cannot hit. I do not understand why he is so intent on working the count, his speed is negligible, so get up there and hack! Even when gets a favorable count, he regularly misses hittable pitches in the zone, then swings at crap and strikes out or grounds out to short. Start Gamel, Bill to the bench as a utility player.

[jeffy]

This wouldn't be a problem if Macha would quit using hitter vs pitcher stats to make lineup decisions and just stick with the RH/LH slits or even assume league average splits.

I had gotten the impression that his doing this with Hall was more about trying to give Hall some confidence by playing him when the opposing pitcher was someone he had had some sucess against in the past. But maybe I was just hoping that this was his thinking.

[BrewCrewForever]

Bill Hall is a right field hitter that tries to pull everything. Pure and simple.

 

Almost every clutch hit he has had has been to right field.

 

So why does he pull every outside pitch to short? That's the question of the day.

And I'm sure Dale Sveum has tried to work with Bill on this and tell him so. But it seems as though Billy may be to stubborn to change his ways and do what HAS worked for him in 2005 and 2006. It's a shame, it seemed Billy could be a very good player at one time. Now he is nothing more then a platoon player at best. The era of Gamel is upon us. Lets just enjoy it.

[logan82]

jeffyscott wrote:

I had gotten the impression that his doing this with Hall was more about trying to give Hall some confidence by playing him when the opposing pitcher was someone he had had some sucess against in the past. But maybe I was just hoping that this was his thinking.

His reasoning doesn't matter. Pitcher vs hitter matchups are an extremely small sample with almost no predictive ability. In the Book they took cases where a batter had at least 27 before PA and at least 9 after PA. Of the 30 matchups where a hitter dominated the pitcher, the after PA were roughly split into 10 hitter continued to dominate, 7 hitter matched career stats, 13 hitter was dominated by the pitcher. On the flip side, They looked at the 30 matchups most dominated by the pitcher. The after came out as 8 mauthups dominated by the pitcher, 10 dominated by the batter, and 12 neutral. I am not sure if you could come up with a more random after/before spread.

 

Even if you have 2 guys playing in the same division, they are not likely to face each other more than 24 times in any given year.(18 head to head games, guessing 6 series of 3 games, starting pitcher starts against the opposit team every series, 4 at bats per game, all guesses on the high side as it is unlikely a starting pitcher starts in every head to head series) Assuming that Fangraphs has the point where stats stabalize correct, Link

 50 PA: Swing % 100 PA: Contact Rate 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA 200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB 250 PA: Flyball Rate 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate 550 PA: ISO [/pre]We need over 2 years worth of data before anything becomes reliable. By the time we would get enough head to head matchups to mean anything, the hitter and batter are so far removed from many of the PA for the data to mean anything. What a hitter did 4+ years ago isn't likely relavent to what he is as a hitter now.

[sweepscc]

One knock I've had on Melvin is his inability to gauge when guys are "one year wonders". He signed Brady Clark, T-blow and Bill Hall to lucrative contracts after one year of over achievement. Now I'm no prophet but even I called for Bill Hall to be traded after his stand out season as it was an outlier at age 26.