Late Night Three Way Speculation (Hall)

[dadofandrew]

Hard to imagine anyone being much more special than Braun...drafted less than 2 years ago.

[endaround]

David Wright

Ryan Zimmerman

 

You know, players Braun might become perhaps one day.

[joshjs]

There comes a time you need to pull out all your punches to get it done or at least go down swinging and having your fans know you gave it everything you had as a front office.

 

Personally, I'd like to see the front office give everything they have to make the team as consistently competitive as possible. Unfortunately, that means risk aversion.

 

Risk aversion may also lower the possibility that somebody makes a series of stupid moves that lead to more years of really bad teams, low attendance, low revenue, and eventual relocation or contraction. (Scary!)

 

EDIT: One more thought: You might argue that the Suppan signing is the best the Brewers can do at the moment in terms of going all out to compete this year. It's not a good long-term move at all, but it'll likely improve us in 2007 by a few games. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito weren't coming here, and nobody wants to trade good starters these days. (Although maybe for Gallardo and Braun they would, I suppose.) Blah blah blah blah blah.

[sbrylski]

Quote:

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"No offense, as we all feel like that sometimes, but that is why you are not qualified to make front office decisions. "

 

Nor are you, Sam, nor me, nor is anyone else here.

 

Please accept the fact that there IS room for "win now" GMs in the majors. They operate in Boston, New York, Houston, Anaheim and the north side of Chicago, and they logically can't mesh with the Brewers' perennially-lower payroll approach.

 

You obviously don't share their views, but that doesn't make someone who wants to win now, less or UNqualified to make front office decisions.

---

 

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to come across condesending.

 

But the bolded statement is exactly my point. We all want to win now, but a GM has to look out for the future. Especially the Brewers.

 

To repharse a bit, "that's why I'm glad you are not the GM." Better? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[brewtank34]

David Wright

Ryan Zimmerman

 

You know, players Braun might become perhaps one day.

 

Yes, maybe so... and Andrew Jones might turn into...yup, you guessed it. Andrew Jones.

 

I'll take a 100% chance over a 52% chance anyday.

[twobrewers]

Quote:

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Yes, maybe so... and Andrew Jones might turn into...yup, you guessed it. Andrew Jones. I'll take a 100% chance over a 52% chance anyday.

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But we would have to give up a TOP NOTCH prospect to get Andrew Jones. And then we would only have Andrew Jones for one year at $13,500,000.

 

Or, we could have Braun for 6 years for that much money.

 

So while Andrew Jones maybe a 100% chance of being Andrew Jones. That is putting all your eggs in one basket.

 

Try maxing out all your credit cards and going to the casino. It might work out well, but I think you would be better off investing your extra income in a few steady mutual funds instead.

[TooLiveBrew]

hmmm..... I wonder if twobrewers roots for a small market team.... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I'm with you there, deuce-brew. There's really no other choice for our franchise, since we don't have the deep coffers to turn to if 'Red 36' doesn't catch that little silver ball...

[UWRyan428]

I would say the main focus of this trade would be Koskie's health. If he can't go, that would precipitate this type of move. If he does go, then I'm all for seeing what we have in CV the Younger and Hall in center, as the need is far less if it is a need at all. But need I remind everyone that Hall is as wild a card as a joker right now. He's never had a year on par like this year. Now I'm not saying that I'm fearful that he'll quickly regress. I'm simply pointing out that there is a likelihood that he might not be Vernon Wells offensively in center, or maybe he will be as Vernon himself is prone to inconsistency. And as for those who say that Hall has more power than Ensberg; Ensberg, two years ago, was pushing Pujols for the lead in homeruns. Hall had to research the art of 3TO (while dismissing the idea of patience) to approach his current level.

And Lidge may not even be the closer this year for the Astros so I find it hard to believe that he would be completely upset over being asked by the Brews to serve as set-up man. And also, as Lidge is our property for two years, such a move could also be a precursor for moving Coco, as it is quite doubtful that we will be able to retain him on the open market, given the price for BJ Ryan and Danys Baez (non-closer money).

As for Rocco, he has injury questions but there are other options in case he does get injured. Jr. Gwynny and Laynce Nix will be relegated to AAA to begin the season and should probably be given tastes. Brady Clark will probably still be on the roster, as I would most prefer to trade Gabe Gross, as his value to the Brewers is higher in trade than in utilization at the Keg with Jenks and Mench entrenched in a corner.

And as for those who would want a one month rental, ask Juice-loving neighbors to the south how a couple months of Beltran or Big Unit got them their WS ring.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"To repharse a bit, "that's why I'm glad you are not the GM." Better? "

 

Much!

 

By the way, given what I've seen so far of your style, you don't strike me as one of those condescending stats guys.

 

Back to baseball, to me, I could see a more balanced Love Connection here, if the trade was simplified to just this:

 

Tampa gets: Carlos Villanueva, Greg Aquino

 

Brewers get: Rocco Baldelli

 

We'd have our # 3 place hitter, our outfield would be Hart, Baldelli, Hall, which could be among the best in the NL. Our rotation and infield would be undisturbed, and the batting order would be in the top 10 in the majors.

 

If Tampa prefers a CV/Zach Jackson package, I'd still do it. I'd offer Zach Jack + Turnbow first, and they'd reject THAT, but that's what negotiations are for, right?

 

Am I way off with this, or what?

[TooLiveBrew]

Quote:

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We'd have our # 3 place hitter, our outfield would be Hart, Baldelli, Hall, which could be among the best in the NL. Our rotation and infield would be undisturbed, and the batting order would be in the top 10 in the majors.

 

If Tampa prefers a CV/Zach Jackson package, I'd still do it. I'd offer Zach Jack + Turnbow first, and they'd reject THAT, but that's what negotiations are for, right?

 

Am I way off with this, or what?

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Not really, unless you're calling Baldelli our #3 slot hitter, which I can't tell for certain (and I hope not). The only other area where I may disagree is the idea of packaging both CV & ZJ. IMO it's unwise to deplete our youthful reserve of SPing so much. If Eveland were still around, I'd have less concern.

 

Even if all CV & ZJ do is tread water for us until YoGa is both physically (he's so young -- I don't want to Priorwood him) and mentally ready for the show, they have great value.

[sbrylski]

Am I way off with this, or what?

 

Looks fair to me, but Tampa's front office wouldn't accept that, IMO.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think Villanueva/Aquino gets Baldelli.

 

Now if the Brewers would have demostrated confidence in Villanueva and declared him a starter, then they probably could have swung that deal.

 

But Baldelli is very popular among the few fans down there. They'd have a hard time selling a deal where the centerpiece in return is a guy that the Brewers by their actions (acquiring Vargas and spending a lot to get Suppan), seem not that confident about.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

OK, fair enough.

 

But if you guys feel confident enough to move Villanueva into the rotation, then what about Dave Boosh, plus a Sarfate, for Baldelli?

 

I'd even consider Capuano in a Baldelli deal, but then Tampa's GOT to take Jenkins off our hands and play 100% of his salary.

 

I'm not even sure of these offers either, but migod, there's a solid hitter out there who's probably available, on a team which needs young pitching, and we need him badly. I'm getting desperate!

 

Are these 2 closer to reality, or further away? You be the judge!

[dadofandrew]

Yep, let's trade away our rotation depth and then wonder why we have 25% of our games being started by 6th, 7th, and 8th starters.

 

Who would Rocco replace, Jenkins? I can't imagine that being much of an upgrade offensively at all, not to mention Baldelli is rarely healthy.

 

To answer my own question, using Pecota:

 

Rocco---.299/.342/.501, 103 simple runs created

Geoff---..268/.343/.452, 93 src

 

There are some minor glitches here, as Jenkins should be platooned, but improving your offense by 10 runs or keeping a SP that will probably start 20-25 games in the majors...that's an easy call for me.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Yep, let's trade away our rotation depth and then wonder why we have 25% of our games being started by 6th, 7th, and 8th starters.

 

Who would Rocco replace, Jenkins? I can't imagine that being much of an upgrade offensively at all, not to mention Baldelli is rarely healthy. "

 

See, Sam? Now THIS is a first rate example of some stat-boy condescension for ya, from someone who, for years, referred to himself ironically as "The Thinking Man."

 

Now let's have at him...

 

Al, weren't YOU the one who said "This is the deepest Brewers' team ever, with solid reserves everywhere (except possibly 1B). "? And "we're 8 men deep in our rotation?"

 

Besides, Rocco can replace Jenkins, blindfolded.

 

Last year, in 162 less plate appearances, RB hit only 1 less HR, and drove in only 13 less runs. He stole more than twice as many bases (10 of 11!) beat GJ in OPS by 81 points, struck out 59 less times, hit .301, and wasn't as prone to weeks-long slumps, benchings, or brain-poots in RF, defensively. He's also 7 years younger and makes less than 1/3 of what Jenkins will take from us.

 

Aren't you the one who preaches younger and cheaper? Migod!

 

Finally, when Jenkins was getting hurt every other year in the early 00's, you were among those who adamantly refused to call him injury-prone, citing the freak, accidental nature of the injuries he kept sustaining. Shouldn't the same benefit of the doubt apply to Baldelli?

[thefutureishere2006]

no deal doug.. no dealhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

See, Sam? Now THIS is a first rate example of some stat-boy condescension for ya, from someone who, for years, referred to himself ironically as "The Thinking Man."

 

I took personal offense to you calling Al a "stat boy" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[UWRyan428]

Giving up Bush is actually A LOT for me to give up for Baldelli. Basically, we would be trading Bush and Menchkins for Baldelli and CV the Younger...not such a profitable trade. My original intent with the trade was to upgrade at three of our biggest questions (as I still question Hall's defense in center) while minimizing our losses.

[UWRyan428]

Just thought I'd post a link to some analysis of Morgan Ensberg and what to expect in 2007. You need to be a subscriber, which I'm not, so they could completely bash the Trojan in the body of work, but the title gives me the impression that they project him to be a bargain for what is a loaded crop of hot corner dwellers in the NL.

 

Baseball Prospectus

 

That said, I think it is going to be a very quiet few weeks before reports out of Arizona.

[geothite]

What exactly is the benefit of this trade to Tampa.

 

Also, it seems like a lot of you guys fall in love with players and try to figure out how to get them.

Badelli and Ensberg are OK players but Hall has a chance to be an AA. Why trade him away for a couple more guys.

[TooLiveBrew]

I still love the name of this thread; it makes my inner 11th grader giggle.