Late Night Three Way Speculation (Hall)

[UWRyan428]

With the uncertainty of Koskie and the questions regarding Hall's acclimation to centerfield, I thought it might be prudent to again throw out the rumor that maybe we should trade our most sparkling trading chip.

 

Milwaukee gets:

3B Morgan Ensberg

CL Brad Lidge

CF Rocco Baldelli

 

Tampa Bay gets:

CL Derrick Turnbow

SP Carlos Villanueva

 

Houston gets:

SS/3B Bill Hall

 

Tampa Bay wants ML ready pitching and could use a closer. Houston was rumored to be amenable to trading Lidge and Ensberg for a power-hitting SS. And investing in Ensberg would alleviate concerns over Koskie's health and allow us to flip him at this time next year if our phenom rips through AAA. And Brad Lidge could then be put back in his former eighth inning role so he can regain his command in hopes of replacing CoCo Cordero next year. And by adding Rocco, we are more able to put a round peg (leadoff hitter) in the round hole that neither Bill Hall nor anyone else on our team filled while allowing us to shift Rickie back to his premium spot in the lineup.

[trwi7]

So it's Hall and Villanueva for Lidge, Ensberg and Baldelli? I'll pass on that.

[UWRyan428]

Ensberg OR Baldelli could just as easily outhit Hall as he could outhit them. The difference is familiarity with their position. And Villy for Lidge, while a bit short-sighted, would definitely favor the Brews as Lidge's situation reminds me a great deal of CoCo's. Lidge would be an ideal fit in our bullpen and any day Sheets goes would be considered a shut-out on most days.

[trwi7]

And they could easily not outhit him.

 

Here's some things that I look at.

 

1. Are we getting younger talent back? No, Baldelli is still only 25 but Lidge is 30 and Ensberg is 31. Hall just turned 27, Turnbow will turn 29 in about a week and Villanueva just turned 23.

 

2. Are we getting cheaper talent back? No, Ensberg and Lidge will cost more than Turnbow and Hall and Villanueva will be cheaper than Baldelli.

 

3. Are we getting better talent back? No at least not in my opinion. Hall is a very good player, better than both Baldelli and Ensberg, at least imo. Turnbow and Lidge is basically a wash and I'd much rather keep a young pitcher who showed a lot of promise last year.

 

4. How long before these players reach free agency?

 

After 2008: Lidge and Ensberg

 

After 2009: Hall; possibly Baldelli if option is declined, if not then 2011

 

Villanueva is a free agent after 2011 I believe.

 

So basically we get older, more expensive, less talented and won't get to keep them as long.

[UWRyan428]

Hall's career averages pale in comparison to the former fifth overall pick's numbers. And to say that Lidge v. Turnbow is a wash is also a bit of a stretch when looking at career numbers. Lidge, like Turnbow, has begun to fall into a slight slump. But given their histories, Lidge has a much better chance of pulling out of it. Truth be told, I would take Ensberg next year over Hall straight up, but that discounts control and cost being equal, which they are not.

[trwi7]

Yes but look at values of the players as of now.

 

Baldelli- injury concerns

Ensberg- coming off a "down year"

Lidge- coming off a "down year"

 

Turnbow- almost no value right now, the only thing going for him is he throws hard

Hall- coming off a great year, .899 OPS and 35 homers

Villanueva- in his limited time in the majors e showed great potential, still very young

 

When looking at the value as of now the Brewers should be able to get more than this imo.

[aracko]

Id be all over that deal to be quite honest.

[pogokat]

I don't think this is a good deal...

 

I think hall is suffering from some backlash around here right now, and i think it's because he was so popular over the summer. the truth is that he's a better player than those other guys. He easily has more power than both Baldelli and Ensberg, and while ensberg walks alot and Baldelli hits for a good average, Hall is trending upward, and will likely post a better OBP than both of those guys next year. Obviously, Hall is younger than Ensberg and he hasn't had the injury issues that baldelli has had. On top of that, hall is a brewer for 3 more years---through his prime---and he shouldnt cost more than 20 million in that period.

 

As for Turnbow and Lidge---i could care less. Does it really matter which of these guys we have? Lidge is likely better, but he costs more and there is no guarantee that he'll be better than last year.

 

Trading Villenueva at this moment seems like a short sighted idea. Just because the Brewers have 5 starters under contract ahead of him does not mean he is expendable. Perhaps next offseason, but as it stands now, he is the 6th starter.

 

I think you are overvaluing Ensberg and drastically undervaluing Hall. Baldelli is interesting, but he's quite the risk. If the Brewers are going to contend in the next 3 years (and they should in all three), then Hall needs to be part of the team.

[brewtank34]

This deal will never go down, but it made me think of a question...

With all great prospects the Brewers have, why doesn't Dougie M just give one or two of them up to obtain someone special. I gotta say that I love the moves the Doug has made in the past- Totally jobbing other squads- But I think it's about time for us to get jobbed. For instance- trade the Braves two nice prospects and a Mench for Andrew Jones- throw in a Brady or someone of that caliber ...Obviously, it would suck to deal some of our "great" prospects- WHO CARES!! I want to win NOW. With the squad we have now, we could use a bat like Jones or someone of his caliber. If we loose out on some good prospects--- oh well. WE HAVE MORE!!!!!

I really think Doug needs to unload on some of them so we can make the next step. Prospects I'm thinking of- Innman, Braun, or Jackson. Yes, it would suck to lose them, but I'd rather have Jones than Braun ---you get the point.

[dadofandrew]

As always, the minute we get some SP depth, people try to trade it away. I wouldn't dream of dealing CV or Hall.

[sbrylski]

...Obviously, it would suck to deal some of our "great" prospects- WHO CARES!! I want to win NOW. With the squad we have now, we could use a bat like Jones or someone of his caliber. If we loose out on some good prospects--- oh well. WE HAVE MORE!!!!!

 

No offense, as we all feel like that sometimes, but that is why you are not qualified to make front office decisions.

[twobrewers]

Quote:

---

...Obviously, it would suck to deal some of our "great" prospects- WHO CARES!! I want to win NOW. With the squad we have now, we could use a bat like Jones or someone of his caliber. If we loose out on some good prospects--- oh well. WE HAVE MORE!!!!!

---

 

I'll pass too. Unlike the Yankees or Red Sox, if this backfires we can't throw money at the problem to reload our team. Instead we are the Royals (or heck, the Brewers of a few years back) for another 10 years.

 

I think the best plan is to keep building a GOOD team. From there you hope for health and a few lucky breaks to carry you the rest of the ways.

 

I don't think small market teams can ever really make a World Series push. Instead, you make a playoff push every year and hope for the best once you get into the playoffs.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Honestly in that proposed deal, I think that Houston would absolutely stealing Hall. I wouldn't touch that at all.

[jackalope02ca]

I wouldn't touch the deal at all as we would be giving way too much up and I can't see Lidge being too happy that he is suddenly a set up man or Cordero if it goes the other way and then all you have is a disgruntled bullpen. Turnbow to his credit, took the demotion with class and acknowledgement that he wasn't pitching well last year.

 

That being said if we could pry Ensberg away I would be all for it. I think he will rebound nicely this year. I am getting the feeling that Koskie may be done. Nothing concrete to base this on just a bad feeling based on the press reports to date.

[Invader3K]

What great prospects do we have left to trade? Gallardo and Braun? I don't think you can give up Braun, because of all the questions at 3B (heck, Braun could be starting by the end of spring training, at this point). Gallardo maybe, but I'd expect a lot in return. Not sure who else would be considered a "great prospect" in the Brewers system right now.

[Invader3K]

Quote:

---

I don't think small market teams can ever really make a World Series push. Instead, you make a playoff push every year and hope for the best once you get into the playoffs.

---

 

Agreed. I heard Tony Larussa talking about this last night (not calling the Cards a small market team), saying that once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. You just gotta be one of eight teams, and then any team can basically beat any other team if they stay hot and make some good plays.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"...Obviously, it would suck to deal some of our "great" prospects- WHO CARES!! I want to win NOW. With the squad we have now, we could use a bat like Jones or someone of his caliber. If we loose out on some good prospects--- oh well. WE HAVE MORE!!!!!"

 

tank:

 

While I really value having an ally around here on my side of the ideological aisle, if you assert that you "want to win now", you'll get clobbered by the Sabremetric/front office/optimistic crowd, so just beware. Hell, I like your style, but when you go all caps lock on our asses, you'll catch crap....just sayin'.

 

But keep counter-punchin'! We need you here! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

"No offense, as we all feel like that sometimes, but that is why you are not qualified to make front office decisions. "

 

Nor are you, Sam, nor me, nor is anyone else here.

 

Please accept the fact that there IS room for "win now" GMs in the majors. They operate in Boston, New York, Houston, Anaheim and the north side of Chicago, and they logically can't mesh with the Brewers' perennially-lower payroll approach.

 

You obviously don't share their views, but that doesn't make someone who wants to win now, less or UNqualified to make front office decisions.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Hell, I like your style, but when you go all caps lock on our asses, you'll catch crap....just sayin'. ]

 

http://www.jinx.com/images/products/882bgBlack.jpg

[TooLiveBrew]

First off, I'm glad to be the first to point out that this thread title is freakin'sweet! (I don't know the font color for Peter Griffin)

 

I agree with most that this is a trade for the sake of shuffling some big names around, not really helping the Crew that much. That said, I like the creativity involved. I am a big believer in Ensberg, as I drool over guys with big power and top-notch plate discipline (101 BBs in an injury-shortened 2006 for Morgan).

 

One last thought...

Quote:

---

He easily has more power than both Baldelli and Ensberg

---

Pogo, while you're clearly right about Baldelli, I disagree. Primarily because of your wording -- as I don't think Hall "easily" has more power.

 

In fact, I'm not even sure he does have more pop than Ensberg. Could this comment have been influenced by Ensberg's injury woes in 2006? The guy can flat-out mash. I know he hasn't had a terribly impressive career.

 

However, he's the definition (IMO) of a guy that would never get HOF consideration, yet make you go "Oh, yea! Ensberg was pretty dangerous when he was in his prime..." when we're watching those 2008ish highlights on YouTube in 25 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

But Pogo, I concur 100% with you that Hall is suffering from BF.net's backlash. He's a fine, fine player. If Overbay (great for him on that 4-yr. extension, it's hard to find a better guy in the Major Leagues than Lyle http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ) can land us the trio he did, imagine what Hall can yield if we do eventually have to part ways with him.... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[brewerfan82]

To me, this deal makes or breaks on whether or not Koskie's good to go. With a healthy Koskie, I don't think the upgrade from Koskie to Ensberg is great enough to justify the deal. On the otherhand, if Koskie is done and we want to compete this year, I'd rather have a proven and very good Ensberg manning the hot corner than Braun.

 

Throwing a very good centerfielder into the outfield also provides some defensive stability. I'm a believer that Hall CAN become a very good defensive centerfielder, but the fact is that he is still unproven there. If nothing else, this trade stabilizes two of our biggest question marks on defense going into the season.

 

Our offense would look a bit more well rounded as well (using 3-year splits):

 

-vs- Righties -vs- Lefties

OBP SLG OPS OBP SLG OPS

2B Rickie Weeks .343 .388 .731 2B Rickie Weeks .366 .444 .810

C Johnny Estrada .355 .444 .799 SS JJ Hardy .345 .534 .879

CF Rocco Baldelli .320 .462 .782 CF Rocco Baldelli .367 .525 .892

1B Prince Fielder .352 .474 .826 1B Prince Fielder .321 .500 .821

3B Morgan Ensberg .360 .473 .833 3B Morgan Ensberg .412 .517 .929

LF Geoff Jenkins .366 .511 .877 LF Kevin Mench .379 .590 .969

RF Corey Hart .305 .454 .759 RF Corey Hart .336 .434 .770

SS JJ Hardy .310 .336 .646 C Damian Miller .344 .387 .731

 

C Damian Miller .330 .408 .738 C Johnny Estrada .296 .368 .664

3B Corey Koskie .357 .500 .857 3B Corey Koskie .297 .365 .662

IF Tony Graffanino .350 .395 .745 IF Tony Graffanino .346 .394 .740

IF Craig Counsell .340 .357 .697 IF Craig Counsell .328 .312 .640

OF Kevin Mench .305 .432 .737 OF Geoff Jenkins .307 .368 .675

OF Gabe Gross .360 .422 .782 OF Gabe Gross .250 .183 .436

OF Brady Clark .368 .387 .755 OF Brady Clark .370 .402 .772

 

We would absolutely crush lefties with that lineup and with the improvement of Weeks, Fielder, Hart and Hardy we should be able to hold our own against righties as well.

 

We'd still need to shed an infielder and an outfielder before the season started, but it gives us one more piece to work with in a trade for some pitching help.

 

I'll take Lidge over Turnbow 100 out of 100 times. And I'm not against trading Villanueva while his stock is high. I love having him as depth, but I'm not quite sold on his 2006 season yet.

 

While we'd be taking on a little money, Ensberg and Lidge are in their 2nd years of arbitration and Baldelli is signed to a very nice contract (07: $0.75m, 08: $2.25m, 09: $6m, 10: $8m, 11: $9m). So we wouldn't be taking on any "bad" contracts.

 

All in all, if Koskie can't go, I'd be all for this kind of swap. Otherwise, if there was any way to coax Houston into taking a Hardy + (Koskie? prospect?) package instead of Hall, that would create a monster lineup!

 

-vs- Righties -vs- Lefties

OBP SLG OPS OBP SLG OPS

2B Rickie Weeks .343 .388 .731 2B Rickie Weeks .366 .444 .810

CF Rocco Baldelli .320 .462 .782 CF Rocco Baldelli .367 .525 .892

3B Morgan Ensberg .360 .473 .833 3B Morgan Ensberg .412 .517 .929

1B Prince Fielder .352 .474 .826 1B Prince Fielder .321 .500 .821

SS Bill Hall .312 .471 .783 SS Bill Hall .365 .523 .888

LF Geoff Jenkins .366 .511 .877 LF Kevin Mench .379 .590 .969

RF Corey Hart .305 .454 .759 RF Corey Hart .336 .434 .770

C Johnny Estrada .355 .444 .799 C Damian Miller .344 .387 .731

[jackalope02ca]

The who cares what we give up I want to win now camp is bang on the money. That is the attitude of a winner and what most fans want to see.

 

That being said I think we are one maybe 2 years too early to do that. You can still be stupid about it. If trade deadline time we are in the playoffs and the odds look good to make it Doug had better be dialing Atlanta and offering up Braun and Villaneuva or some combination of talent like that for Jones or a similar move or he should be canned. You only get the chance to win once in a while and if we could win or go deep into the playoffs the majority of the fans and owner won't care if we gave up two future allstars.

 

The problem as Brewer fans is we all have the wait until next year attitude. If we didn't we wouldn't be Brewer fans. There comes a time you need to pull out all your punches to get it done or at least go down swinging and having your fans know you gave it everything you had as a front office. We are finally getting close to that time.

[brewtank34]

Great Prospects that I'd be willing to give up to get someone special...

JJ Hardy

Inman

Braun

Z Jackson

Manny Parra

Mark Rodgers

Dennis Safarte

Tony Gywnn Jr

Hendrickson

 

I would imagine that if we packaged two of these prospects and a Mench/Clark/Jenkins/Turnbow/or Vargas-- I'm pretty sure we'd get someone good.

Thanks for all the support to my LETS WIN NOW!!!! crowd.

[TheMCG]

I'm curious as to why you think most of those players would net "someone special".

[twobrewers]

Personally, I think we might end up making a trade at the deadline to move one of our prospects if we are playing well.

 

However, first we have to have a need. Right now, I don't think moving any prospects is going to have a huge improvement in any part of our team. Is trading Braun really going to give us better outfielder (or something) that will help this year?

 

But if we have injuries, like last year, we will likely make a move similar to De La Rosa for Graffy.

 

But I would bet my bottom cent that Yo and Braun are pretty untouchable. Inman can't be too far behind. (We need to be covered for when Sheets leaves)

 

But when you start talking about the Jeffries, Rogers, Parra type players - those we might be willing to move.