Gathering up the mock drafts

[battlekow]

I figured I'd collect a bunch of mock drafts in one place for easy reference. Feel free to post more. I'll try to update the post as the mock drafts themselves are updated.

Baseball America: 3B Matt Davidson, Yucaipa HS (CA)

Milwaukee is another team investigating the athletic outfielders. If Mitchell, Williams and Trout are gone, the Brewers may not want to fight Heathcott's asking price because they have five of the first 74 picks. They could hope for Borchering (also pricey) or Pollock to drop, but may wind up with Davidson, Mier or Fuentes.

Baseball Prospectus: RHP Drew Storen, Stanford University

A new scouting group, or a new one at least as far as responsibilities go, could be prone to do something conservative here, especially as a team with a lot of early picks. Drew Storen is the best reliever in the draft, he could move up quickly, and it's not like Trevor Hoffman is any kind of long-term answer at closer, as good as he's been.

Jonathan Mayo: OF Mike Trout, Millville HS (NJ)

If the Brewers go bat, they'd love for Borchering to fall. But with him off the board and the toolsy outfielder from the Northeast here, this could be the pick. Garrett Gould might be the choice if they want to go arm.

colbyjack: 3B Matt Davidson, Yucaipa HS (CA)

If Eric Arnett someway, somehow falls this far he will probably be the pick. Other players in the mix for this pick include Jiovanni Mier and Max Stassi, but the Brewers have a history of selecting players with the highest offensive upside, and that's Davidson here.

Project Prospect: C Luke Bailey, Troup County HS (GA)

Just about every team will be monitoring Bailey's early stage recovery from Tommy John surgery, and assuming all goes well he could still figure into the late first round. When fully healthy, Bailey is a smooth defender with a strong, accurate throwing arm who figures to be a plus all-around defender. Offensively, Bailey has big time raw power, as he generates incredible bat speed with strong wrists and maintains great plate coverage. Before the injury, Bailey was a possible top 10 pick and given the high rate of recovery for Tommy John patients, the Brewers could get a steal with this selection. I have a hard time seeing Bailey get by the Red Sox or Yankees, both of whom have deep pockets and a need for a backstop of the future.

MLB Outsider: RHP Matt Hobgood, Norco HS (CA)

The 18 year-old Hobgood is 10-0 with a 0.34 ERA, 90 K's, 21 BB's with Norco HS in the Mountain View League. His 2-seam fastball has officially been clocked at 93 mph, but Baseball Beginnings professes that the speed may actually increase to 95 mph in the middle innings. Besides 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs, Hobgood also mixes in curveballs and change-ups. His 6'4" frame enables him to have a higher release point than other pitchers, giving him another edge over hitters.

Andy Seiler: OF Jared Mitchell, LSU

 

Sporting News: RHP Eric Arnett, Indiana University

 

Minor League Ball community: C Max Stassi, Yuba City HS (CA)

 

MyMLBDraft.com: 3B Matt Davidson, Yucaipa HS (CA)

[battlekow]

I'll add colby's mock draft to the list, as soon as he updates it http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Thanks for the reminder 'kow. I'll try to update my 5TT mock draft this week, but my final projection will likely come on Monday at PGX.

 

Here's my somewhat-stab at the first-half of the first round from a couple of weeks ago:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1308

 

And here's David Rawnsley's first-round projection from a few weeks ago (subscribers only):

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1254

 

Jonathan Mayo hasn't gotten past the top 20 picks yet, but his efforts should be mentioned as well since he has easy access to the bureau and speaks to quite a few people in the game:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090528&content_id=5009386&vkey=draft2009&fext=.jsp

[patrickgpe]

i don't see us going catcher with the first pick. I would think they would try to get a college starter or ben tootie.

[DHonks]

I fully expect the Brewers to take some bats early, given the fact that their Helena rotation is already full of high end pitching prospects. With our 5 early picks, I would see it going something like 3 hitters, 2 HS arms.

[RyDogg66]

I could see college arm with that first pick and then some young hitters with the next 4.

[brewmann04]

I agree think we see some College arms that can be moved quickly thru the system.

[colbyjack]

I got my 5-day out version up this evening. As noted via this link and above, I plan to have a more polished one on Monday at PGX.

 

5 Tool Talk Mock Draft

[battlekow]

Colby, I noticed you still have Gibson really high, at #4. What are you hearing about his chances of free-falling due to the loss of velocity/injury scare?

[colbyjack]

Not enough info right now to know, or to automatically drop Gibson. I have a few phone calls scheduled for tomorrow and over the weekend that I hope will allow me to add my finishing touches to the mock draft.

 

I will say that Gibson has never really been known as a flamethrower. While his velocity is noticeably down, almost every time I have seen him pitch he's in the 88-91 range, and he has tossed a pretty long season (I think he has something like 5 CGs too, which could definitely lead to some fatigue).

[Never Outhustled]

I see you have Wheeler to Milwaukee in your latest mock. I'd be very happy with that. Very good bat, and still has upside to do more. Have you heard rumors of him connected to Milwaukee? Also, I see you had Tate fall out of round 1. Is his asking price higher than the rumored $6 million?

[battlekow]

Jonathan Mayo has the Brewers taking Matt Davidson in his newest mock (linked in the original post). Excepting Donavan Tate, who is a horse of a different color, and Bobby Borchering, who seems to have separated himself from the HS hitter pack, who do you guys like most between Davidson, Wil Myers, Mike Trout, and Everett Williams?

[battlekow]

Possibly telling quotes from the official site:

The Brewers chose a hitter with their first pick in six of Zduriencik's nine years at the helm, but they are focused on pitching this year.

Under Zduriencik, the team never shied away from high school picks high in the Draft, including Yovani Gallardo in the second round in 2004. But this year, they are looking harder at more advanced players.

"If you have a guy and he's closer to the big leagues, and there's still some upside, and he's available, you would be foolish not to look at that strongly," Seid said.

So, college pitcher at 26? That would certainly be different.

[DHonks]

Someone should tell Adam Mcalvy that the leagues no longer alternate picks.

[battlekow]

BA now has the Brewers taking A.J. Pollock.

[colbyjack]

Have you heard rumors of him connected to Milwaukee? Also, I see you had Tate fall out of round 1. Is his asking price higher than the rumored $6 million?

 

No, no rumors of Wheeler being connected to the Brewers, just the player I thought was the best fit when I put the mock together from 1 through 32. If I put it together again tonight, or even a few hours after I made that last one, it probably would stack up a little differently.

 

As for Tate, as I noted in the lead-in to the mock draft, his future and the Padres pick at #3 seem to be intertwined at this point in time. If the Padres don't take him, he could fall a long way (outside of the rumors of the A's being hot for him). If the Padres do take him, of course that's a completely different story. As Jim Callis noted today, there aren't too many teams in the top 10 connected with Tate, and for someone asking for $6M, that's not a good thing.

 

Excepting Donavan Tate, who is a horse of a different color, and Bobby Borchering, who seems to have separated himself from the HS hitter pack, who do you guys like most between Davidson, Wil Myers, Mike Trout, and Everett Williams?

 

I've never really gone into Tate, because it seemed clear that the Brewers would never have a chance to take him, but he's not quite the same bonafide, can't miss prospect that guys like Ken Griffey and Darryl Strawberry were. It's not as for sure that he's going to be able to hit as a pro.

 

Mike Trout has separated himself the most from the next pack. He has been able to play in front of a lot of front office executives this spring, and they all walk away with new glowing remarks to share about him. His bat has been in question too, but he has started to erase those concerns, and he's a good (not great) all around athlete.

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers chose a hitter with their first pick in six of Zduriencik's nine years at the helm, but they are focused on pitching this year.

That might be what they're saying publically, because its believable, but Jonathon Mayo has said they were on Trout, Stassi, Borchering, and Davidson, and BA said in their recent mock that the Brewers were on all the athletic OFs. That group would obviously include Trout, and could also include Everett Williams, Tim Wheeler, Jared Mitchel, and possibly Reggie Williams as a 2-4 rounder.

 

If they focus on pitching, I think that would be something they would do from round 5 on, like last year.

 

 

Jonathan Mayo has the Brewers taking Matt Davidson in his newest mock (linked in the original post). Excepting Donavan Tate, who is a horse of a different color, and Bobby Borchering, who seems to have separated himself from the HS hitter pack, who do you guys like most between Davidson, Wil Myers, Mike Trout, and Everett Williams?

I don't like Davidson at all, I prefer to win baseball games rather than HR derbies. And where will Davidson play? Its hard to call him a 3B, and that bat is way too risky to draft him as a 1B. If I had to draft a HS 1B, I'd pick Malm, not Davidson.

 

I love Borchering, he reminds be of a caucasion Bobby Bonilla, but with better work ethic. Myers is very impressive too. If I picked Myers, it'd be as a 3B. I don't know if I can form an informed opinion on Trout. I think Everett Williams has great ability, he's actually a better hitter than Tate right now, but he doesn't defend like Tate. It scares me a little to hear his desire questioned, but it might be nothing. Sometimes guys are so smooth they don't look like there trying.

 

BA now has the Brewers taking A.J. Pollock.

Too low of ceiling for me. I think a better player will be available. There will be enough bad reaches from 3-25 to push a very good player to us.

[DHonks]

I agree with what X ellence has been saying. I've long felt the Brewers will shoot for hitters this year. Of the 3 1st/Supp picks, I'd expect 2 hitters and a high school pitcher. In the second round, I see HS OF and Pitcher as being chosen.

 

I realize it's foolish to pick based on position, but I'm not expecting a first round college pitcher. After round 1, the Brewers generally avoid college pitching, instead taking HS arms.

[Never Outhustled]

Its not so much that I think they're looking to take a hitter, I just don't see a quality college starting pitcher available. I think the Brewers would wet themselves if they had a chance at Arnette, but I can't see a scenario where he's available. What college starter would they pick that will actually be available? Heckethorn would be the only intriging one, and he has some real questions.

 

Now, every mock draft I see has either Tim Wheeler or Jared Mitchell available.

 

In recent drafts, catcher and college relievers have been drafted higher than projected, HS pitchers have fallen, as have injured college pitchers. I'll predict Tony Sanchez and 1 more catcher will already have been picked by the time we pick.

 

I think the Brewers will have some very interesting HS pitchers staring at them in the supplemental round, including Zack Von Rosenberg, Tyler Skaggs and Keyvius Sampson.

[battlekow]

Paxton doesn't interest you, X?

[Never Outhustled]

He's a Boras client, so evem if I could get past all the little injuries and the ERA over 5, you'd still have to deal with Boras. Paxton has amazing power stuff, but he's too risky for what his pricetag will be.

[Never Outhustled]

I said earlier I couldn't see a scenario where Eric Arnette fell to the Brewers, so I guess I lack imagination. In BA's latest fantasy mock, they have the Brewers selecting Eric Arnette! In past years, Ive begged for Ryan Braun, I've begged for Brett Lawrie to make it to #16, and now I'm pleading for Arnette to last to # 26.

 

I truely believe he's one of the top talents in the entire draft. The big obstacle will be him getting past Cleveland. Thats where he's ticketed in PGCC's latest mock. My hope is a team in the upper half picks a catcher, pushing a polished college arm to Cleveland like Mike Leake or Mike Minor, leaving Arnette for us. PGCC has us taking Jared Mitchell, another player I really like, and he would satisfy the desires of many for a leadoff hitter, as he's become extremely patient this year, and has awesome speed. He has some power now, and could develop alot more, and he is a lefthanded bat. He would be a nice consolation prize.

[battlekow]

Shopping List

Tom Haudricourt

 

Some players who still might be on the Brewers' draft board when they make the 26th pick of the first round:

PITCHERS

RHP Eric Arnett, Indiana

LHP Garrett Gould, Maize (Kan.) HS

LHP Chad James, Yukon (Okla.) HS

RHP Kyle Heckathorn, Kennesaw (Ga.) State

LHP Andy Oliver, Oklahoma State

LHP James Paxton, Kentucky

RHP Drew Storen, Stanford

POSITION PLAYERS

3B Matt Davidson, Yucaipa (Calif.) HS

OF Brett Jackson, California

OF A.J. Pollock, Notre Dame

OF Jared Mitchell, Louisiana State

C Max Stassi, Yuba City (Calif.) HS

OF Mike Trout, Millville (N.J.) HS

OF LeVon Washington, Buccholz (Fla.) HS

 

 

I have a feeling a Brett Jackson pick would not go over too well.

 

[battlekow]

New mocks from the big names: BA says Davidson, BP says Storen, and Mayo says Trout.

 

I'm not an Insider, so I don't know what Keith Law says.

[DatHoser]

Law says cf Pollock.