Reds a Better Team than the Brewers?? Brandon Phillips Thinks So!

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think it's a big deal but I tend to agree with lcbj68c. It's not smart to say - I think we are better than them - after getting swept. If he wanted to say - I think we can compete or we can play better than we did this weekend - is one thing but to say we are better than them kind of neglects the fact that they are a defending playoff team who is leading the division and just swept you. It's is kind of dumb to say something at this time even if you believe it. All it can possibly do is give the Brewers a little bulletin board material.

I reminds me a little of the stupid wake a sleeping giant comment last season by St Louis. A giant that has been asleep for 2 years isn't asleep... it's dead.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Yost would have called Phillips a gamer.

 

No specific quotes to back this up, but I always got the impression that Yost was a fan of Phillips's game.

 

 

Did he have the bandage on the beginning of the game? To be honest, I didn't notice it (probably missed it) until Dusty said something. If he did have it on the beginning of the game, that's pretty bad.

 

Honestly I don't know... I can just never pass up a good opportunity to take a jab at Dusty http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I said this in spring training during the 30 teams in 30 days discussions but the Reds rotation is overrated and the Brewers rotation was being underrated. I don't think one of them is better than the other.

 

Gallardo is better than any pitcher they have, Volquez's first half last season was heavily luck influenced and his second half looks just like his 2009 so far, good but not great. Cueto is still inconsistent but is probably the best pitcher on the Reds but his ERA so far this year is a mirage built on LOB%. Harang is not likely to revert to his 2005-2007 self, he is over 30 now and has a lot of innings on his arm and he has started to lose velocity. Arroyo is well Arroyo, solid most starts but always has a few complete blowups to sabotage his stat line and Micah Owings is only a marginal major league starter unless he can find a 3rd effective pitch.

 

It won't surprise me if the Reds don't have a starter with an ERA under 4 over the rest of the season. Cueto will probably end up in the 3s just because of the hot start.

[MickeyDavis]

Yo had the bandage on at the beginning of the game.

[pretendastronaut]

I just read this choice quote from Dusty in some Cincinnati media;

 

Baker compared the situation to Arizona-San Diego turnaround.

 

The Reds swept Arizona, then went to San Diego and got swept.

 

"That's the second time after an off day," Baker said. "We had a sweep, then got a reverse sweep. That means we're about to get hot again. That's how I've got to look at it. We're up and down, up and down.

[TooLiveBrew]

I can't help myself... I know this will wind up as my sig at some point

 

"It's just like fishing. You're going striped bass fishing. You've got birds on top and you follow the birds. Where the birds are, the bait fish are below that. Below the bait fish are the striped bass. That's what you want to do. That's how you want to do your lineup. That way they can't escape. That's how I try to make my lineup out so the opposition can't pitch around this guy or that guy and that guy and can't escape. You try to get them in the crossfire."

[TheCrew07]

How is it reasonable to proclaim that Parra will get better but pitchers of similar talent in Cueto and Volquez will get worse because they are lucky? Their individual lines may suggest some luck, but they both are young and have elite tools.

[brewmann04]

No big problem that he thinks his team is better actually would not expect less.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't have a problem with him thinking it. It's that he's stupid enough to say it that makes me shake my head. I wouldn't want him popping off like that if I was a fan of the Reds. There is nothing good that comes from such public proclamations.

[Ennder]

How is it reasonable to proclaim that Parra will get better but pitchers of similar talent in Cueto and Volquez will get worse because they are lucky? Their individual lines may suggest some luck, but they both are young and have elite tools.

Because ERA is a bad stat over a single season sample. Young pitchers improve year to year but it usually isn't by huge leaps and bounds like people think, the underlying peripherals usually show slow growth the ERA just jumps all over because well it isn't a very useful stat without a large sample.

 

Volquez pitched like a 4 ERA pitcher most of last year, Cueto was over a 4 ERA. Volquez had an xFIP of 4.02 last year and got steadily worse as the season went on, he has an xFIP of 4.80 this year. I don't think many projected Parra to beat his xFIP from last year which was 4.03 so not sure where this big growth for Parra idea comes from.

 

Cueto had an xFIP of 4.62 last year and has a 4.44 so far this year. He has shown some growth but the 2.53 ERA is almost completely a product of his 83.9% strand rate and .231 BABIP against. It just isn't supported by his peripherals at all.

 

Parra had an xFIP of 4.03 last year and has a 4.93 so far this year with that terrible spike in BB/G mostly to blame. The nice thing about Parra is the high GB%. If he can get those walks back down he really does have the perfect skillset, LHP with high GB% and good K/9. He can even live with a BB/G over 3.5 and be somewhat successful but over 5 is going to cause problems.

[BrewCrewForever]

I still think the Brewers are better than the Twins :shrug:

Yeah, I think we are better then the Twins as well. I guess I don't have any issue with Phillips saying what he said. I don't agree with him, I think the Reds are a much improved team and I think Votto is an amazing player but they are still a couple years away.

[tommyboy42609]

I can't help myself... I know this will wind up as my sig at some point

 

"It's just like fishing. You're going striped bass fishing. You've got birds on top and you follow the birds. Where the birds are, the bait fish are below that. Below the bait fish are the striped bass. That's what you want to do. That's how you want to do your lineup. That way they can't escape. That's how I try to make my lineup out so the opposition can't pitch around this guy or that guy and that guy and can't escape. You try to get them in the crossfire."

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif I think I've had that as my sig for over a good year now, always cracks me up.

[DuWayne Steurer]

But Manny doesn't have the eye of the Tiger.

 

Seriously though, the Brewers run differential has suggested a little bit of luck. Provus said a winning % in 1 run games is the hallmark of a good team, I think it's the hallmark of a somewhat lucky team.

 

If you look at the lineup right now, there's 4 guys sporting an OPS over .750, and I seriously question how long Counsell can keep it up.

 

If Hart and/or Hardy don't pick it up, there's going to be a lot of pressure on Fielder, Cam, and Braun to produce.

 

Also worth noting is that exactly one starter (Yo) is averaging 6 IP per start. I question how long the bullpen can remain effective if guys like Coffey, DiFilice, and Villy are asked to pick up almost 4 IP per game 5 times per week.

 

I'm not saying the Reds are better, but it's not black and white in favor of the Crew either.

[Ennder]

Hardy has an .888 OPS since May 1st so I think he already turned it around.

 

I do think that 1 run games come down to the bullpen a lot so not surprised we have done well in them since our bullpen has been so strong.

[rluzinski]

Provus said a winning % in 1 run games is the hallmark of a good team, I think it's the hallmark of a somewhat lucky team.

 

He also can't go 5 seconds without talking about how important momentum is in sports. I think I miss Powell.

[logan82]

Seriously though, the Brewers run differential has suggested a little bit of luck. Provus said a winning % in 1 run games is the hallmark of a good team, I think it's the hallmark of a somewhat lucky team.

 

I was going to say that I somewhat agree it is lucky and a good bullpen will help in one run games. I see somebody beat me to it. I would also add that a good offense will help swing one run games. I thik our team with a solid pen and good offense is set up to win more than our fair share of 1-run games.

 

I think our bullpen can soak up a lot of innings without wearing down if handled properly. We have Villanueva, DiFelice, Coffey and McClung who can go more than an inning and keep the other team down. You don't burn out a pen as quickly if you use guys more than an inning. Letting relievers hit bothers me a little, but I like to see the relievers go longer like they have.

[rluzinski]

A good team just wins more games period, no?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hardy has an .888 OPS since May 1st so I think he already turned it around.

 

I do think that 1 run games come down to the bullpen a lot so not surprised we have done well in them since our bullpen has been so strong.

I question if Coffey, McClung and Stetter are as good as their small sample size would suggest so far this year. I am (like everyone) pleasantly surprised by how the bullpen has performed, but I also think that several of these guys are performing better than should be expected. As good as Hoffman is, he will, at some point, blow a save or two.

 

I also agree with the sentiment someone else posted that using relievers multiple innings might help alleviate the stress of the workload. I know the innings pitched comes out the same, but I think it's pretty well known that appearances for a reliever are a better indicator of arm abuse than IP. That's why it used to irk me so much when Ned would get Cordero up seemingly every night to throw in the bullpen "just in case"

[TooLiveBrew]

I think I've had that as my sig for over a good year now, always cracks me up.

 

Do not question. Just smile and nod.

 

 

I question if Coffey, McClung and Stetter are as good as their small sample size would suggest so far this year.

 

Me too. I think since we've watched McClung pitch for a while now, we know roughly what to expect. With Coffey, I guess I'm just waiting to see him return to his career rates. Of course I hope he's just figured something out/turned the corner. I think Stetter is legit as far as talent goes.

[SeriesFinale]

"I feel like we're a better team than the Rockies," Braun said. "But this week, they executed better than we did. They did the little things..."