Brendan Katin

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess I just don't see what Katin would bring that Hart doesn't (& maybe I'm putting words into others' mouths by discussing Katin as a replacement for Hart).

 

Both are low-ish OBP, high-ish SLG types of hitters, but Hart has had much more success throughout his career, including putting up so-called 'proven production' at the MLB level. At 26, if Katin weren't really hitting at AAA, he might not be in the organization anymore.

 

Updated MLEs for Katin, before play on 6/17 (again park & league-adjusted, via minorleaguesplits.com):

.245/.267/.478/.745

 

 

I agree with LouisEly that Katin's best shot will probably come next ST. The only hitch I see there is that all of our starting OF are RHB, which really lessens the need for a reserve OF to be a RHB.

 

 

EDIT: Sheesh, after making my Nth (at least somewhat) negative post on Katin, I just want to plainly state that I'm glad to see him slugging well & having success in Nashville. I'm happy for Brendan, and hope that it leads to that big shot for which he's been playing his whole career.

[TheCrew07]

Katin's problem is he's exactly what Milwaukee already has too much of hitter wise, and he's RH. There has to be an organization out there that would be a better fit for him than Milwaukee. I hope he gets a shot at some point for someone, he's earned his chance.

[Hate those Rodents]

No reason that shouldn't be here if he's close to as good as Hart and going to be much cheaper starting next season. People that want to keep guys like Hart/Hardy are going to have to realize that their cost/benefit ratio is about to not look so pretty and realize we are not a big market team. If we have competent guys that can be as effective (if not slightly less or more effective), then we're going to need to risk it at some positions. It bothers me some that people don't see a place for some of our AAA guys based on the way our everyday lineup outside of Braun/Fielder are producing.

[DHonks]

wow, just realized Katin's pace is for roughly 35-40 homers and 200 K's in AAA! Those are a bit scary. If he walked more, he'd be the studliest 3TO around

[dadofandrew]

No way he'll have success in the bigs until he learns to take some pitches and walks. Even a guy like Nelson Cruz, who lacked plate discipline despite success in AAA, took a ton of BB's compared to Katin. At best, he's a platoon mate as of now. He's so close to his peak, his window may close quickly.

[jdoz]

Katin's updated MLE stats:

 

BA/OBP/SLG = .241/.265/.471

 

Catalanotto this year = .208/.269/.292

 

Katin is 2nd in the Pacific League for RBI's, 3 for total bases, 10th in slugging, 5th for home runs.

 

I think it will be tough for Brewers' management to not bring him up in September. He warrants a chance to back Hart up more than Catalanotto at the very least.

[battlekow]

Catalanotto has 26 PAs. That's not a useful sample from which to draw a comparison to Katin's stats.

[jjfanec]

I think it will be tough for Brewers' management to not bring him up in September. He warrants a chance to back Hart up more than Catalanotto at the very least.

Katin bats right-handed. It makes little sense for Hart's backup to be a right handed hitter. Katin's line against RHP translates even worse to the big leagues since his OBP is .291 and his OPS is .812. I do not know what the MLE's would be there but it cannot be pretty.

[dadofandrew]

If they have to add him to the 40, it will be very easy to not bring him up in September.

[Postseason2006]

First arguing that he shouldn't get a chance because Hart and him are RH is foolish. This is the kind of argument Doug Melvin would make then deal Cruz away. Yes, you would like the backup to be the opposite hitter or a switch but keeping someone or having a man crush like Jody Gerut or making the trade with Mench included is not wise.

 

I argued w/ Brewer fans in the beginning of the year that McGehee should be starting at 3rd on MJS. People didn't think he should even make the team.

[jjfanec]

First arguing that he shouldn't get a chance because Hart and him are RH is foolish. This is the kind of argument Doug Melvin would make then deal Cruz away. Yes, you would like the backup to be the opposite hitter or a switch but keeping someone or having a man crush like Jody Gerut or making the trade with Mench included is not wise.

How is looking at splits foolish? Katin is most successful against LHP but he would not play against LHP pitching because Hart would always be in the lineup. Now I would not mind getting a look at katin to see if he could be the potential replacement for Hart, but he just would not get enough playing time warrant a call-up. He would be better of staying in AAA and learning how to be more selective at the plate because if he can do that he will be a very very good prospect.

[LouisEly]

Here are the two stats about Katin this year that stand out the most to me:

 

OPS w/runners on: .985

OPS w/RISP: .948

 

Based on these two stats, clearly he does not belong on the Milwaukee Brewers.

[TooLiveBrew]

How many AB are we talking for those splits? I don't think anyone doesn't wish the best for Katin, but I think that pointing out his redundancy due to the handedness of the OF starters, and questioning how his lack of plate discipline would translate against even better pitching, is completely fair.

[jdoz]

Katin now leads all of AAA in RBI's. Is anyone watching Hart and Catalanotto? I mean, even if Katin wasn't tearing it up, I'd say give him a shot.

[jjfanec]

Katin now leads all of AAA in RBI's. Is anyone watching Hart and Catalanotto? I mean, even if Katin wasn't tearing it up, I'd say give him a shot.

You like to bring up stats like RBI's but you do not like when people bring up the fact that in AAA not the majors he is striking out 30% of the time he gets up. His K% is the same as his OBP which is .305. He has a nice OPS, but he is more than likely going to be eaten alive by major league pitching if he strikes out that much in AAA.

 

And he really is not tearing up right now. In June he has an OPS of .767 while striking out over 1/3 of his PA. 34 K's to 3 BB. So, in the last month his OPS is .012 points higher than Hart's in AAA opposed to the Majors. The reality is Katin had a great May but his April and June have been okay. He needs to string a couple months together to get a shot. He has got great numbers with runners on but overall they are not extremely impressive to warrant a call-up.

[jdoz]

Katin now leads all of AAA in RBI's. Is anyone watching Hart and Catalanotto? I mean, even if Katin wasn't tearing it up, I'd say give him a shot.

You like to bring up stats like RBI's but you do not like when people bring up the fact that in AAA not the majors he is striking out 30% of the time he gets up. His K% is the same as his OBP which is .305. He has a nice OPS, but he is more than likely going to be eaten alive by major league pitching if he strikes out that much in AAA.

 

And he really is not tearing up right now. In June he has an OPS of .767 while striking out over 1/3 of his PA. 34 K's to 3 BB. So, in the last month his OPS is .012 points higher than Hart's in AAA opposed to the Majors. The reality is Katin had a great May but his April and June have been okay. He needs to string a couple months together to get a shot. He has got great numbers with runners on but overall they are not extremely impressive to warrant a call-up.

 

There is no doubt that his K/BB ratio is worrisome. I wouldn't deny that. I also, as you mention, do admit to bringing up RBI's a lot. Why? Because at the end of the day, they matter more. If a guy strikes out a lot, especially without runners on, but happens to get big hits regularly when his teammates are on base, I think that speaks to a pretty important attribute. Clutch hitting is big. No doubt you and many others have a good point that his K's are an issue and that his selection has to improve, but let's not deny the importance of getting hits when they really matter. Leading all of AAA baseball in RBI's should not be taken lightly.

[clancyphile]

Katin certainly is making a case for consideration in 2010.

 

That said, I think the big questions have to be what skill sets the Brewers will need.

 

The Brewers have power hitters galore: Fielder and Braun as the "big guns" with Gamel, Hardy, Cameron, and Hart as a second tier. Tack on Salome, who may be catching as early as September this year as a prelude to starting at catcher next year.

 

Katin - by the end of next month - may be at a high point, and it may be a more prudent move to "sell" to get some significant backup. Say a Ryan Freel/Chone Figgins-type of player.

 

Clearly, this year, depth has been the problem. The starting nine are great when they are on, but if some are injured or slumping...

[igor67]

Except that no one has demonstrated that their exists a substantial skill for a player to be clutch and actually be a better hitter in pressure situations than otherwise.

[dadofandrew]

RBI's are directly correlated to RBI opportunities. Katin has good players hitting in front of him, and if Gamel was hitting in that spot, he'd lead the league in RBI's.

 

Katin is making a case for a 40 man spot, because you can't teach power. The fact he can defend in RF makes him too much like Nelson Cruz to disregard, but to be anything more than a platoon candidate, he needs to get his OBP up above .300 more...few players help the team getting out 70% of the time in a league where Mike Burns is a very good SP.

 

Needless to say, he'd have some awful looking 0'fers if he were brought up right now.

[jjfanec]

As a player whose value has been debated here quite often I think his own comments and Money's comments can add to the discussion. These quotes are from an article in the AAA thread on this page.

"Katin is a typical home-run hitter - he'll look great then he'll go out there and look like he's never played the game before. He'll hit 'em a long way, and then he won't hit any for a while. And he has way too many punchouts."

 

Katin knows consistency issues have kept the Brewers from advancing him beyond Triple-A. Although he has 19 home runs and 72 RBIs, he has struck out 103 times in 310 at-bats.

 

"I've just got to improve my approach, cut down on strikeouts and walk more. I get way too aggressive sometimes. Pitchers know that. I've got to learn to wait for something," said Katin, who was eliminated in the first round of the Triple-A Home Run Derby on Monday night.

 

"If I do that, the average probably goes up, the RBIs improve, on-base percentage - everything goes up. It's been tough for me, but I know I can improve on it because I've had streaks when I haven't struck out. It's a matter of maintaining a consistent approach and a certain focus each at-bat.

Sounds like he knows what is keeping him from moving up and now it is just a matter of fixing the problems. His own comments and Money's comments make me think the Brewers want to keep him down in AAA for a while and not rush calling him up when he has a lot to work on. On a positive note he has walked 5 times in the last 7 games after having walked just 11 in the previous 73.

[dlk9s]

Well, congrats to Katin on hitting one out (no doubter) in the AAA All-Star game!

[TooLiveBrew]

That was a pretty huge shot... would have been gone (distance-wise) in any park. Nice to see Brendan light one up.

[jdoz]

Monster shot as an all-star. You cannot teach that degree of raw power. A little more plate discipline and he should be called up.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just since there's no game thread on this game, might as well comment here -- R.J. Swindle is pitching right now in the top of the 7th, and has already shown the 50-mph curveball/eephus pitch http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

Hahaha! Swindle just dropped it again on LHB Jordan Brown... 49 mph this time... everyone involved was just laughing, including Brown & Swindle. The crowd was just buzzing after that one, too.

[jjfanec]

Katin pretty much lived up to the quotes from the article so far. Tremendous power and too many strike outs. Although the bomb he hit makes it sound like he made up for the strike outs.

 

I dont want to see him called up this year but I think another year of seasoning in AAA could really help his plate discipline and make him a part of this teams future. Rushing him to big leagues seems like a bad idea to me. The benefits he can bring the Brewers outweigh the positives his development can have by staying in AAA.