Quality Starts

[CheezWizHed]

The consistancy part of the QS got me thinking the other day. Given two pitchers with the same ERA and the same number of innings pitched (walks, SO, etc.. being equal), would you prefer:

1) Pitcher A who is inconsistant: pitches 4IP, 4ER one game, then 8IP, 2ER the next.(4.5 ERA) Lights out one night, can't find anything the next.

2) Pitcher B who is very consistant: 6IP, 3ER both games (4.5 ERA). Lunch pail, not spectacular, but you always know what you get.

 

Not trying to dwell on the example, but focusing on the consistancy of the pitcher. I'm assuming more people would prefer the consistant pitcher, but I haven't really though it yet.

 

Is there a stat tracked to measure the distribution of a pitchers ERA per game? (the variance (sigma^2) in statistic-speak)

 

The part about the QS stat that I like is that it tells how often the pitcher kept the team in the game. And can be a loose "measurement" of unmeasureable data like momentum. Getting blown out on a given day can really stop a team cold.

[areacodes]

QS is 3 ER as well for most sites at least, maybe a few attempted to change it and make it all runs but the standard definition is ER.

That is what I get for seeing it from BP and another site and assuming they were correct. Thanks for pointing that out and my apologies to GormanHarvey.

[joepepsi]

Obviously it has tremendous limits but it's a handy, quick stat that gives you a pretty good view of a pitcher's worth. Doug built this rotation by assembling guys who provide quality starts, but aren't dominant pitchers. It's a less expensive way to give your team a chance to win every game. Over the course of a season a rotation that can give you 972 innings of 4.50 ERA makes the team legitimate contenders.

 

I'd rather have a rotation like the Brewers than one that has a "true Ace" like Santana at the top, and "true Crap" like Hernandez and Perez at the bottom.

[bjkrautk]

The consistancy part of the QS got me thinking the other day. Given two pitchers with the same ERA and the same number of innings pitched (walks, SO, etc.. being equal), would you prefer:

1) Pitcher A who is inconsistant: pitches 4IP, 4ER one game, then 8IP, 2ER the next.(4.5 ERA) Lights out one night, can't find anything the next.

2) Pitcher B who is very consistant: 6IP, 3ER both games (4.5 ERA). Lunch pail, not spectacular, but you always know what you get.

 

....

 

The part about the QS stat that I like is that it tells how often the pitcher kept the team in the game. And can be a loose "measurement" of unmeasureable data like momentum. Getting blown out on a given day can really stop a team cold.

I'll take Pitcher B over Pitcher A anyday. Having too many 4 IP starts will overwork a bullpen very quickly.

 

The second part of the quote is more in-line with my thinking on quality starts: the number of them isn't as important by itself as it is relative to games started. It's a measure of consistency; it is something that you expect from your top 1-2 guys in the rotation, and hope for out of 3-5.

 

Just look at the QS numbers for our starters last year (per ESPN.com)

C.C. -- 17 GS (in Milwaukee), 15 QS -- 88.2%

Gallardo -- 4 GS, 3 QS -- 75.0% (...the one non-QS was his first game back, when he only threw 4 innings)

Sheets -- 31 GS, 18 QS -- 58.1%

Bush -- 29 GS, 16 QS -- 55.2%

Suppan -- 31 GS, 14 QS -- 45.2%

McClung -- 12 GS, 5 QS -- 41.2%

Parra -- 29 GS, 10 QS -- 34.5%

Villanueva -- 9 GS, 3 QS -- 33.3%

 

...add in Looper (15 QS in 33 GS = 45.5%) between Bush and Suppan, and that tracks pretty closely with our evaluation of the pitching staff.

 

As another indication of how good the staff has been this year, only one guy is under the 50% mark for quality starts, and that's Looper (2 in 7 GS -- the Brewers record of 5-2 in his starts is due in part to some above-average run support).

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it really depends on what type of offense you have as to what type of pitcher you want. If you have a good offense like the Brewers it makes sense to have pitchers who keep you in every game.

If you have a bad offense I would rather have the inconsistent one who can pitch lights out on occasion. That way the offense will be enough half the time.

 

In other words if the team scores 5 runs every game give me a pitcher who only ever lets in 4. If it scores 1 run every game then I'd rather have a guy who may give up 10 earned half the time but pitches shutouts the other half.

In that sense our staff is perfect for the Brewers.