JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz?

[barbados73]

"An obvious trade of equal value players would be Alcides Escobar for Clay Bucholz. Top prospect for top prospect."

I like this idea, but I don't think Boston does it straight up. Probably have to be Escobar and ??? for Bucholz. This is a avenue that I would prefer the Brewers try in their attempt to add a SP. I would really prefer something along this line, than to have to give up a bunch of prospects along with paying a ton for a Peavy type pitcher. I do realize that it is hard to get teams to give up SPers that have top of the rotation possiblities, but a team like Tampa with a lot of pitchers may give one up for a Gamel or Escobar type player.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Hardy > Bucholz > Escobar

 

Hardy would be more than a rental for the Sox. Bucholz is an outstanding prospect, but is just that...a prospect. He's probably equivalent in trade value to LaPorta. We also had to contribute 4 additional prospects to get that deal done...some were rated higher than others. Hardy would not have the value of CC, but if the deal is done over the off-season the extra time makes up for it. It would take more than Bucholz to get Hardy. Probably another top 10 (closer to 10) and one lower level prospect at least.

[twobrewers]

804Sox - that was a great, well thought out post.

 

As already mentioned - Hardy is under control for a year and a half. So while he certainly isn't on the same level of CC or Tex. I would think a year and a half of Hardy is fairly comparable to half a year of the aforementioned players. (Considering he plays a premium position)

 

Starting with Buchholz . . . this isn't a hot steak, Clay's been dominating AAA hitters for several years.

I've been after Buchholz for years. However, you point out one of his flaws - he has been in AAA for several years. While he has posted some fantastic minor league numbers, last year he pitched 76 innings in the major leagues with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. Buchholz could just be an AAAA pitcher. (Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey were comparable pitchers in the minor leagues)

 

Hardy has been a legitimate MLB all-star at SS. Other than his no-hitter - Buchholz MLB resume isn't very impressive.

 

Lastly, regarding the CC trade - Michael Brantley was considered a very good prospect. Some actually considered him a better prospect than LaPorta.

[804Sox]

yeah . . . my fault on the contract. I thought this was his last year of arbitration. I guess I assumed he was a super 2? Anyways, that definitely changes his value.

 

Looking for comparable trades is somewhat difficult given the rarity of this sort of move:

Tex to Atlanta for Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Elvis Andrus, Saltalamaccia (although, I think everyone knew ATL was getting fleeced at the time)

Matt Holliday for Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzales (offseason deal, so only 1 season vs. 1.5)

 

I think the value of the later deal is more comparable given Holliday's perceived value as an elite player. In either case, Hardy's value is clearly higher with the extra year of control, and perhaps Buchholz would be an appropriate return, but I think this is a case where each player is more valuable to his own team, making a deal unlikely.

 

The Sox have balked at trading Buchholz in the past for players like Saltalamaccia/Teagarden, Holliday, Teixera, CC, Johan, etc, and I don't think he'd be sacrificed for a player like Hardy who, despite his skillset, would not neccessarily be a part of the Sox long-term plans. Similarly, the Brewers need Hardy's bat on offense to compete this year, and can easily move Escobar to 2B (where it seems he's been getting some PT recently?). Alternatively, I agree with many posters that he might have more trade value right now than he'll ever have as a player, and it might be the time to move him rather than Hardy for pitching help or whatever (obviously HE should only be traded for an impact pitcher - Penny would not be worth it, in my opinion)

 

I guess this is just a trade that shouldn't happen, right?

[TooLiveBrew]

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think a mid-20s aged SS wouldn't be part of BOS's long-term plans?

[TheCrew07]

If they are sold on Jed Lowrie as the future then they wouldn't want Hardy long term. He's a nice little switch hitting SS.. though I think he's played around the diamond some if I recall, so I think he has more versatility than JJ and could be a utility player for them if they picked up JJ. He doesn't hit many HRs though and he's in his mid 20s already so I'm not sure he'll ever post an OPS like Hardy, but he sure does have his seasons where he smacks doubles all over the yard. I was just revisiting his minor league stats, he had a year with 47 2Bs! Cripes...

[804Sox]

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think a mid-20s aged SS wouldn't be part of BOS's long-term plans?

I think TheCrew summed it up pretty well. Lowrie will be back in a few months at worst, and if they think he can be the starting SS of the near future, then Hardy becomes redundant. Were this the final year of Hardy's contract, acquiring him would make a lot more sense. Hardy could play SS for the remainder of the year, while Lowrie gradually works his way back. As TheCrew mentioned, he can play all over the infield (SS, 2B, and 3B) and would get plenty of at bats. However, with Hardy under the Sox control for another year, lowrie would be redundant, and if the Sox like him, I immagine they'd want him to be starting by next year, his age 26 season. Hardy's going to make a lot of money when he hits FA - probably a lot more than he's worth because he plays a premium defensive position, and I don't think the Sox will want to sign a late-20s SS to what will probably be a 5 year deal for 10+ mil/yr when they have a solid offensive and defensive shortstop in Lowrie who will just be entering arbitration during that contract.

 

Personally, I see Hardy as a substantial upgrade over Lowrie both offensively and defensively. But, I think Lowrie will be a .770-.820 OPS SS in his prime years with an average glove while making very reasonable money, certainly a lot less than the Sox would have to pay Hardy to retain him after he hits FA. I'm not totally sold on Lowrie as the "SS of the future" given his only average glove and range (I like to see a little better D up the middle) but I'm content with him as the SS of the near future while some higher-cieling guys work their way through the system.

[hauser42]

Average glove and range sounds like a couple of Brewer fans giving a scouting report on Hardy.

[TooLiveBrew]

Personally, I see Hardy as a substantial upgrade over Lowrie both offensively and defensively.

 

Ok, then we definitely agree on Hardy--Lowrie. Appreciate your thoughtful posts & insights so far, 804.

[tony2sweet]

If Boston needs a shortstop, why not Hall. I could see a trade of Bill Hall and a lower level prospect for Penny. That seems like a fair deal for both sides.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

I don't know all the background but I happened to see a play in the Red Sox game last night where the BoSox shortstop botched a throw from Pedroia and Sutcliffe said something along the lines of: "I'm going to say it one more time: JJ Hardy".

 

Hadn't seen anything prior to that so I'm not sure what the discussion was.

[Invader3K]

I was just thinking, doesn't it seem like almost every year there is talk of a Boston/Milwaukee trade on this board, and then absolutely nothing ends up happening? Maybe it's because Epstein and Melvin are both well regarded GMs, and the teams' needs often seems to line up. Just seems like it's always a bunch of talk and then nothing.

[TooLiveBrew]

To me, it's more that the 4-letter network only thinks about BOS or the NY teams, and the Brewers are reaching the point where they have some talent they're going to have to sell off. However, I think your point on Epstein & Melvin being good GMs plays a role too.

 

You seem frustrated by trade rumors lately, Invader http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Invader3K]

I wasn't frustrated by this one too much. It's just we've heard a lot of Boston/Milwaukee stuff in the last couple years, for whatever reason.

[fallingleaves]

I do not understand the argument for resigning Hardy long term, particularly with Escobar in the wings. Hardy has had only one good season offensively.

[PeaveyFury]

Hardy has had only one good season offensively.

 

Which is one more than Escobar has had...

 

Hardy has actually had two very good seasons offensively for a shortstop. If he continues to hit as he has in May, there's no doubt that he'll end this year with his third good season.

[Invader3K]

Hardy still probably projects to be a better offensive player with more power than Escobar. I think that's the thinking there. If we trade Hardy this off-season (a popular player performing well) and Escobar struggles, a lot of people will be mad. I know you can't run a team based on fan popularity, but it would be nice if the Brewers could get at least one of their young guys re-signed, other than Braun. I know Fielder won't happen, so Hardy would be my first choice.

[endaround]

Escobar is sub Bill Hall vs RHP. Right now in AAA he's hitting 0.245/0.299/0.329 vs RHP. I have no clue why he has such a platoon split but its large and its consistent. For Escobar's career:

 

.348/.390/.441 vs LHP

.280/.310/.358 vs RHP

 

He did better vs RHP last year so hopefully it omes around again.

[logan82]

Why does Escobar keep getting included in these deals? Unless Hardy is signed long term, we are going to need him very soon. Same goes for most of our top prospects.

[crewcrazy]

I agree that Hardy would make more sense for the Red Sox if he was in his last year, but Boston could get create about how they use him after this year if they did get him mid-season. They could move him to third when they think Lowrie's ready, or possibly even use Lowrie's prospect status as a big trading chip to improve other areas.

 

In my opinion, the only way Hardy gets dealt during the season is if the Brewers go on a huge slide during June and July that puts them out of contention by the deadline. The Brewers need Hardy's bat for a playoff push, and Escobar is still pretty far away from being an average offensive shortstop, as end noted. It'd be nice to sell high (or very high, in Hardy's case) to get a nice package of players, but considering the Brewers are pretty much operating within a 1-2 year window right now, I think you have to keep Hardy.

 

I might feel differently if Epstein were a horrible GM and Boston had another Hanley Ramirez sitting around in the minors, but neither is true. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Hate those Rodents]

I really don't get the hate on Escobar's batting abilities. He's hitting .296 in AAA as of today. He is getting lots of doubles. He has excellent speed. The guy is just about ready and will be an above average MLB shortstop. He might even be ready right now. I don't know as I have not see him play any AAA games this year. But I really struggle to have the worry some of you have of trading Hardy (and getting someone major league ready that would probably help us more) and plugging in Escobar. I would like to look up Hardy's minor league numbers vs. Escobar's and see where they stack up aside from home runs. I'd like to look at their averages, hits, stolen bases, doubles, etc.

[jvrocksaz]

Why does Escobar keep getting included in these deals? Unless Hardy is signed long term, we are going to need him very soon. Same goes for most of our top prospects.

That is where Adam Heether comes in!!!! :-)

[trwi7]

That is where Adam Heether comes in!!!! :-)

That's actually not a bad idea. I put his numbers in the MLE calculator at minorleaguesplits.com for the past two years in Nashville (roughly 500 at bats) and it came out to .288/.372/.421/.793 with 29 doubles and 10 homers.

 

I know he's older, but if he can play decent defense, that's a pretty good option.

[twobrewers]

Simply put - the Brewers need Escobar because they can't afford to pay JJ Hardy.

 

Escobar at $400,000 a year > Hardy at $8,000,000 a year.

 

With our younger players reaching arbitration (Weeks, Hart, Bush etc) we need to save money - SS is the obvious solution.

[jvrocksaz]

That is where Adam Heether comes in!!!! :-)

That's actually not a bad idea. I put his numbers in the MLE calculator at minorleaguesplits.com for the past two years in Nashville (roughly 500 at bats) and it came out to .288/.372/.421/.793 with 29 doubles and 10 homers.

 

I know he's older, but if he can play decent defense, that's a pretty good option.

He has progressed nicely over the last few years... I know he plays 3B, SS, & 2B so at very least he can be Counsell's replacement at some point! I agree that he is a little older but hey Nelson Cruz and Lance Nix seem to be doing well now that they finally got a chance!