JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz?

[GamelToe]

Doesn't this seem like an ideal trade to anyone else? We need pitching, the Red Sox need a SS. Thoughts?

[southpaw121505]

I've thought about this. I guess they would have to feel Escobar is ready or feel comfortable sliding Hall over for the rest of the year and taking a hit at short. Would lower our chances this year but would be awfully nice having Buccholz to pair with Yo going forward.

[jjfanec]

Doesn't this seem like an ideal trade to anyone else? We need pitching, the Red Sox need a SS. Thoughts?

Trading Hardy right now would hurt our lineup much more than Buchholz would help our rotation. Getting Buchholz in the off-season might make sense but right now Escobar has not shown he is ready to hit the way Hardy is capable. Hardy the last month has an OPS of .990.

[bobskube]

No. Not to be a jerk, but not happening during season.

 

However, this could be a good off-season move based on Hardy accepting an extension w BoSox.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

With Weeks out of the lineup, we really need Hardy. I think at this point they need to play with the lineup they have. I'm not sure they will get a better pitcher than what they have without paying too high of a price. As was mentioned, if they get comfortable enough to go with Escobar, maybe it's an off-season move.

[twobrewers]

However, this could be a good off-season move based on Hardy accepting an extension w BoSox.

How about we add Prince and Ellsbury in the deal as well?

[southpaw121505]

If Prince is in I want Lars

 

Buccholz, Lars Anderson, Delcarmen for Prince and Hardy

 

We get Prince's replacement and two top end starters for giving up a year of Hardy and two of the big fella.

 

They get a top SS that they can actually afford to re-sign and Ortiz's replacement that they can probably also afford to extend.

[nate82]

This looks to be an off season move not one the Brewers would make during the season unless the Brewers have a lot of faith in Escobar offensively.

[trwi7]

However, this could be a good off-season move based on Hardy accepting an extension w BoSox.

How about we add Prince and Ellsbury in the deal as well?

Prince and Hardy for Ellsbury and Buchholz? That's pretty bad for us. I never understood the love for Ellsbury though.

[Invader3K]

With Ortiz looking like he's on a fast decline (possibly even going on the DL and heading for a AAA rehab stint), I could see the BoSox wanting Prince this off-season...and I would hope Melvin would ask for and get the moon for him.

[GoldGloveSS06]

I think we need Hardy in our lineup given where we are in the standings and our schedule going forward. Interesting idea with Buchholz though. He certainly wouldn't have as much pressure in Milwaukee as he did in Boston. It would also give us some flexibility in case we did consider making a move for Peavy.

[twobrewers]

Prince and Hardy for Ellsbury and Buchholz? That's pretty bad for us. I never understood the love for Ellsbury though.

Ellsbury plays CF. He bats LH. He steals bases. He is a very good lead-off hitter in the AL EAST. He would become the best lead-off hitter in the NL Central.

 

I understand your argument that Prince and Hardy seems like too much for Ellsbury and Buchholz - but there is also significant cost savings. We would get Buchholz for 6 years and Ellsbury for 3 years while giving up 2 years of Prince and 2 years of Hardy.

[endaround]

No he's a pretty bad lead off hitter in MLB. The guy had a great 116 ABs 2 years ago. Since then he's been bad.

[804Sox]

Just a couple thoughts as a Red Sox fan: (and as an aside, you guys should check out soxprospects.com - it's a good site a lot like brewerfan)

 

The Sox would NEVER trade Clay for Hardy straight up. He's dominating AAA right now and already has an MLB no-hitter on his resume. I like Hardy and think he's probably one of the better shortstops in the league in terms of combining solid offense with really good defense, but Buch has ace potential and will be cost controlled for several more years which is not something any team would trade for a FA-to-be SS who will be earning a raise or returning 2 picks. I think a more realistic return would be a guy like Dan Bard or maybe Mike Bowden or some combination of #5-10 prospects like Kalish. Lars is probably off the table too. For comparisson, Johan only returned Carlos Gomez and some lower-level players

 

w.r.t. Ellsbury, he's decent as aleadoff hitter, but not great. He has not demonstrated the isoD in the majors that he had throughout his minor league career, resulting in lower than desired OBP, and tends to slap at the ball too much. Apparently he shows good power in BP, though, so there is hope. Ellsbury's best trait, in my opinion, is hos defense, Unbelievable range and ball skills, even if the arm is sub-par.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just a couple thoughts as a Red Sox fan: (and as an aside, you guys should check out soxprospects.com - it's a good site a lot like brewerfan)

 

The Sox would NEVER trade Clay for Hardy straight up. He's dominating AAA right now and already has an MLB no-hitter on his resume. I like Hardy and think he's probably one of the better shortstops in the league in terms of combining solid offense with really good defense, but Buch has ace potential and will be cost controlled for several more years which is not something any team would trade for a FA-to-be SS who will be earning a raise or returning 2 picks. I think a more realistic return would be a guy like Dan Bard or maybe Mike Bowden or some combination of #5-10 prospects like Kalish. Lars is probably off the table too. For comparisson, Johan only returned Carlos Gomez and some lower-level players

 

w.r.t. Ellsbury, he's decent as aleadoff hitter, but not great. He has not demonstrated the isoD in the majors that he had throughout his minor league career, resulting in lower than desired OBP, and tends to slap at the ball too much. Apparently he shows good power in BP, though, so there is hope. Ellsbury's best trait, in my opinion, is hos defense, Unbelievable range and ball skills, even if the arm is sub-par.

 

Nice try 804Sox. Yeah sure the Brewers are going to trade one of the top SS in the NL for a 5-10 Red Sox bottom of the rotation prospect. So Bucholz has a major league no hitter? So does Bud Smith. So Bucholz is dominating AAA hitters for 8 starts. Big deal. Virtually every major league starting pitcher has had a stretch where he dominated in AAA. If Bucholz was 21 or 22 I'd be impressed. Personally, I wouldn't trade Hardy straight up for Bucholz. It's worth discussing down the road perhaps but certainly not now.

[Never Outhustled]

I like Hardy and think he's probably one of the better shortstops in the league in terms of combining solid offense with really good defense, but Buch has ace potential and will be cost controlled for several more years which is not something any team would trade for a FA-to-be SS who will be earning a raise or returning 2 picks.

Welcome aboard 804Sox. Hardy isn't a FA to be, he is under control for 2010, making him very valuable. He was worth $22 million last year per Fangraphs. The Sox would jump at Hardy for Bucholz. Theres no guarantee Bucholz will ever be a $22 million player.

[hauser42]

Sox have Lowrie so I dont think at this point they are going to deal for Hardy. Right now thay have Geen and Lugo filling in for now.

 

Prince does make sense for the Sox to go after in the future to replace Papo. Boston can not afford to hope young Lars is going to be the man if they know they can get Prince. IMO Prince is made for Fenway as he can take some of his opposite field pop ups and make them HRs in that park.

[804Sox]

Nice try 804Sox. Yeah sure the Brewers are going to trade one of the top SS in the NL for a 5-10 Red Sox bottom of the rotation prospect. So Bucholz has a major league no hitter? So does Bud Smith. So Bucholz is dominating AAA hitters for 8 starts. Big deal. Virtually every major league starting pitcher has had a stretch where he dominated in AAA. If Bucholz was 21 or 22 I'd be impressed. Personally, I wouldn't trade Hardy straight up for Bucholz. It's worth discussing down the road perhaps but certainly not now.

I don't want to be the Red Sox homer trying to inflate the values of my team's players (and honestly, neither of us are making the trade, so our opinions really don't matter) but I take issue with several of your claims. I think so far I've been reasonable in my valuing of both clubs players, and I'll try to continue to do so.

 

Starting with Buchholz . . . this isn't a hot steak, Clay's been dominating AAA hitters for several years. As a 22yro in '07 he struck out 55 in under 40 innings, putting up a 3.9 ERA (not great), but had a 1.6 ERA in Boston, striking out a batter per inning over 22 innings. The next year, he posted a 2.4 ERA in AAA, striking out a batter per inning over 40+ innings. So far this year in AAA, he's got a 1.4 ERA, and once again is striking out about a batter per inning. Based on his age (JuCo Pitcher), performance, and stuff Buchholz is without question an elite pitching prospect.

 

As hauser mentioned, the Sox have Lowrie (a doubles machine who I see as a somewhat similar player offensively to Hardy, but with poorer defense), meaning Hardy would simply be a rental. The Sox would be content to offer him arbitration and collect the picks from another team (as the Brewers likely will with Escobar nearly ready). If it were the Buchholz today for Hardy two years ago, that would be a completely different scenario, but I do not think I am being a homer by suggesting that the Sox would not give up a cost-controlled, major-league-ready starter with #1/2 potential for several months of a very good shortstop.

 

For comparisson:

The Angels got Tex at the deadline for Casey Kotchman

The Brewers got CC for Matt LaPorta

The Dodgers got Manny for Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris

 

Hardy is a solid player, but it is fair to say that he is not on par with the above three players. It would be unreasonable to expect Lars Anderson, Buchholz, or Mike Bowden, who each project to contribute at a high level in the majors for many years (All at least in LaPorta's class according to BA and other sources), for a few months of Hardy. I maintain that more realistic returns would be Dan Bard (who has torn up the minors since his move to the pen and is playing well in the majors), Josh Reddick, or some combination of players such as Nick Hagadone, Ryan Kalish, Stolmy Pimentel, Felix Doubront, etc.

 

That was way longer than I intended, but for the brave few who read to the bottom of the post, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[trwi7]

It's not just "a few months" of Hardy. It's a year and a few months plus draft pick(s).

[nate82]

For comparisson:

The Angels got Tex at the deadline for Casey Kotchman

The Brewers got CC for Matt LaPorta

The Dodgers got Manny for Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris

 

Hardy is a solid player, but it is fair to say that he is not on par with the above three players. It would be unreasonable to expect Lars Anderson, Buchholz, or Mike Bowden, who each project to contribute at a high level in the majors for many years (All at least in LaPorta's class according to BA and other sources), for a few months of Hardy. I maintain that more realistic returns would be Dan Bard (who has torn up the minors since his move to the pen and is playing well in the majors), Josh Reddick, or some combination of players such as Nick Hagadone, Ryan Kalish, Stolmy Pimentel, Felix Doubront, etc.

 

That was way longer than I intended, but for the brave few who read to the bottom of the post, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

But it is not for a few months of play. Hardy is under Brewers control through the 2010 season. 2011 is Hardy's free agency year not this coming off season.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I want this Hardy trade talk to end. I dont understand why we dont resign him. He loves being a Brewer and is a great player as well. Hardy and Braun should be the faces of the team for years to come. This franchise has come a long way in a few short years. The team can afford some payroll with the great attendance and a fantastic owner and Hardy should be signed long term. We should be talking about trading Escobar who may not ever be a good offensive player vs trading Hardy who is fan favorite and great player. I understand that we need to have some young controllable players on our roster but our payroll supports keeping a few of our established stars.

[Invader3K]

Well, I do remember during this past off-season when there were some rumbling about him being traded, Hardy came out and said that he loves playing here and wants to stay. Now, maybe it was just the usual impending free agent friendly speak that most guys do, but I didn't get the sense that was the case here.

 

If I had to guess right now, I bet Melvin will approach Hardy again about an extension during this off-season, and hopefully then they can get something worked out. Barring that playing out, I would almost rather see them hold onto him through next season, and either trade him before the trading deadline if the Brewers are out of it, or let him walk after next season and take the comp picks. The only way I'd trade Hardy right now is if a team bowels Melvin over with a great offer. He's just worth too much to this team to let go without getting a huge haul in return, if you're going to trade him right now.

 

A core of Braun/Gamel/Hardy over the next few seasons would not be a bad thing at all. I would have to assume at least one of the other younger guys will sign long term, right? If Braun ends up being the only one to step up to the plate and put his money where his mouth is, that will be a bit disappointing.

[Never Outhustled]

An obvious trade of equal value players would be Alcides Escobar for Clay Bucholz. Top prospect for top prospect.

 

What I don't understand is, if Bucholz looks so good in AAA, why doesn't Boston use him to shore up their struggling rotation?

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think we need offense more thanwe need pitching, if Gamel flames out (for now) we need to add a bat at 3b!!!

[PeaveyFury]

I think we need offense more thanwe need pitching, if Gamel flames out (for now) we need to add a bat at 3b!!!

 

I don't believe that at all. The offense has enough quality hitters to compensate for Gamel regardless, our pitching staff has three serious potential issues in the rotation beyond this year (Suppan, Looper's free agency, and whether Parra puts it together or not).