Alcides Escobar

[TooLiveBrew]

You might want to double check your stats next time as well. He's up near .800... and he's been trending positively for a month.

 

How is he/has he been hitting RHP?

[TheCrew07]

You might want to double check your stats next time as well. He's up near .800... and he's been trending positively for a month.

 

How is he/has he been hitting RHP?

We're seriously going to get bent out of shape over a 2 month sample? His career numbers suggest that he'll always be a better hitter vs LHP than RHP, but it won't be platoonish extreme. His career .280 average against RHP is pretty much exactly where I'd expect him to settle in at the MLB level for his total BA. However if you're wondering his splits have been trending positvely since '06 along with the rest of his offensive numbers.

 

Again, at AAA you get pitchers that know how to pitch, or guys with big arms that can't locate. Anyone with a big arm arm and control is going to have a career path similar to Yo, Linecum, etc. Those guys fly through the minors and we're concerned with limiting their IP to keep their arms together through the injury nexus. AAA pitchers are more your Mark DiFelice and Chris Cody type where our primary concern is if they will continue to get hitters out, not how many IP they can pitch... guys that don't throw hard but know how to pitch, and he's faced very few pitchers of that type as he's moved up. Alcides is doing exactly what he's done at every level, he starts a bit slow then builds up as the season progresses.

 

I was serious over the winter when I thought he'd start out replacement levelish and build from there, I think he'd be better than a 2 WAR player this year had he come up, and a good 4 WAR or better pitcher plus Escobar's WAR would have been more valuable than Hardy whos a 4.5 to 5.0 type player. Hardy is clearly the superior player today, I'm not advocating Escobar over Hardy nor will I until Hardy is gone.

 

He's not going to fill out his body spending time in AAA, that much I will say I'm certain of. In fact, he's not going to fill out that twigish frame until he quits playing winter ball and concentrates on lifting some weights. He could easily add 10 LBS of muscle each off season and become a guy who's capable of 20 HR. He's capable of hitting double digits in a single MLB season now, he proved that last year, which is a testament to his raw athleticism more so than any power potential.

 

He will slump here soonish, he's been hiting very well for extended periord of time, but that won't make him any more or less ready than he is today. He'll basically be the same player in Sept than he is today, because the one area he really needs to work on isn't really workable in season. I'm not even sure he'll ever put the time into the weight room that Hardy did, that's a personal choice, and I'm not sure that every player will make that choice.

[logan82]

I guess for me it doesn't matter is he is ready or not. As long as we have JJ, there just isn't room on the MLB roster for Escobar. We would have to get a pretty good player back in trade to cover the difference between Escobar and JJ. That player would have to be as big of an upgrade over the player they replace as JJ is over Escobar.

[Hate those Rodents]

Like I have in the Heether thread, I think it simply comes down to whether you think Escobar/Buccholtz is better than Hardy/Parra (or Suppan). It certainly is in the future. I just argue that it is this year as well, realizing there are unknowns in the former.

[TooLiveBrew]

We're seriously going to get bent out of shape over a 2 month sample?

 

No, I asked you an honest question

[endaround]

His current 753 is closer to 730 than 800. Yes he's been trending uo. His last 28 days: 0.348/0.387/0.482. The power is nice to see but his overall line is all due to a BABIP of .411. Something that just doesn't carry over as more than luck.

[TheCrew07]

His current .783 is much closer to .800 than .750... again, you need to verify your stats prior to posting incorrect lines.

[TheCrew07]

We're seriously going to get bent out of shape over a 2 month sample?

 

No, I asked you an honest question

Then you have my sincere apology.

[JohnBriggs12]

No one's saying he's been rushed yet no matter what strawmen you wish to erect. He has a 730 OPS in AAA. That doesn't scream ready, it screams hanging on. He's young so its hardly terrible but he's not Gamel or Weeks or Fielder or even Hardy.

Oh we don't know that endaround.

 

I don't understand the concern about either his youth or his bat. First let's talk about youth/inexperience. Escobar has more professional AB's right now than either Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel.

 

Now about his bat. In Hanley Ramirez' last minor league season, he put up numbers much less impressive than Escobar is right now. Ramirez went straight to the majors from the AA Eastern league where he hit a pedestrian .271/.335/.385 in 2005. Escobar was the same age as Ramirez was at AA last year and out hit him by a considerable margin: .328/.363/.434. Let me remind everyone that Ramirez, coming off that year at AA, was NL rookie of the year the next season. By your standards endaround, Ramirez was "hanging on" with his .720 OPS at AA in 2005.

 

There's no way to predict what Escobar would hit in the majors right now but this is one special talent. Just the few times I've seen him in spring games, it's obvious. Special talents defy projections based on historical numbers.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think it's pretty clear that there are some very loyal Hardy fans, as there should be, as well as some fans that think Escobar is ready and Hardy should get us a good, young starter now if he could. I doubt any arguement is going to sway either side.

[TheCrew07]

I'm actually both, all of my Brewer memorabilia is Hardy related, but Hardy isn't going to be moved in season, especially when we are leading the division.

[JohnBriggs12]

This was the year Hardy was set to solidify his status as an elite SS. He hasn't done it yet. I'm really shocked he hasn't. They cannot hold a talent like Escobar back much longer and Melvin knows it. Parra holds the key to whether he'll be traded in season. They can't/won't sent Parra down now because they don't think they have a better alternative. But they won't win anything with a guy taking the hill every 5 days with an ERA of nearly 7.

[scrapiron]

Would it be so bad to ask JJ to kind of "take one for the team" and move him over to 2B while Escobar plays SS for at least a bit to see if it works. Hardy is still a fine SS and him moving over to 2B isn't going to change that in the minds of the Brewers or any other club that might want to pursue him IMO. Granted he may not want to and that is a different story, but I sure like the middle infield combo of Escobar/Hardy better than anything the Brewers are putting out now. With all due respect to Counsell who's been great, he isn't going to keep this up. That may not be the best solution in terms of hurt feelings, but at least we get to see what Escobar can do at the MLB level without trading Hardy at such a low. It may also show clubs that my be interested in Hardy that the Brewers are in the mindset to work him in no matter where, and that they are going to have to offer something fantastic to get the Brewers to move him. Honestly, right now in my opinion Hardy/Escobar > Hardy/Counsell:McGehee. Not only will the move make the Brewers that much more interesting to watch, IMO it will make them better.

[Hate those Rodents]

Scrap Iron - we only want Escobar up if Hardy is not on the roster. That is one point 95% of us would be in agreement with. Even those advocating doing this trade probably like Hardy as much as me. If Hardy is on the roster, Escobar should be in AAA so the clock doesn't start on him. If we can get TB for Hardy though, Escobar would fit right in at short imho.

[Hate those Rodents]

Escobar was 3-5 tonight with a triple, homerun, and 3 RBI in a Nashville win...

[Invader3K]

I'm now on board with trading Hardy now and putting Escobar at SS. I think the Brewers have probably regretted not trading some guys while their value was high, and I don't want Hardy to be another one. He's not bringing enough to the table for us right now anyway. May as well give Escobar the chance.

[TheCrew07]

Escobar was 3-5 tonight with a triple, homerun, and 3 RBI in a Nashville win...

That was actually Monday afternoon and the Sounds are off till Thursday.

[Invader3K]

.228 .310 .359 .668

 

That is Hardy's line right now. Could Escobar really not match that at this point?

[RyDogg66]

I dont see how we could trade Hardy before the offseason. First place teams dont trade their starting All Star shortstop midseason for prospects. Granted, Boston did it a few years ago with Nomar but they were not in first place and Nomar was coming back from injury.

[nate82]

.228 .310 .359 .668

 

That is Hardy's line right now. Could Escobar really not match that at this point?

To be fair with Hardy he did have a hot month of May. He had a .313 .400 .488 .888 line for the month of May I don't think Escobar would be capable of doing that right now.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am not sure why we are calling him an All Star SS. He kind of loses that luster by hitting under .230 with very few home runs as well. Not trying to drag him through the mud, but I just think the rose-colored glasses some wear when Hardy's name is mentioned might need to come off pretty soon.

 

And the bottom line should ALWAYS be, if your team can get better, you make the trade. Forget about what standard protocal has been in the past. If the team can improve, the team should do what is can to improve (within financial reason).

[rotoherb]

Using Fangraph's wins above replacement, which combines offense and defense, Hardy was the fifth best SS in the majors in 2007 and the fourth best SS in the majors in 2008. Who needs rose colored glasses when you have facts? The Brewers have a guy who was a top five SS in all of baseball over the last two seasons. Two months of this season really isn't going to make me think that he still isn't that player. If you can improve the team by trading Hardy then do it, but it depends on what they can get. They would need to get quite a lot to improve the team by trading Hardy.

[ELCABALLO45]

I think trading Hardy right now would not be that smart. Not only would we be downgrading overall at shortstop but I think it would upset the moral of the locker room FWIW.

[jjfanec]

I am not sure why we are calling him an All Star SS. He kind of loses that luster by hitting under .230 with very few home runs as well. Not trying to drag him through the mud, but I just think the rose-colored glasses some wear when Hardy's name is mentioned might need to come off pretty soon.

 

And the bottom line should ALWAYS be, if your team can get better, you make the trade. Forget about what standard protocal has been in the past. If the team can improve, the team should do what is can to improve (within financial reason).

So Jimmy Rollins is not an All-Star SS since his numbers are awful this year. They are much worse than Hardy's. We know Hardy is a streaky hitter, but guess what, so is Escobar. He has been extremely hot recently and his numbers have jumped. Hardy will heat up and Alcides will slow down. That is the nature of the game.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am not calling JJ a bad player. I do think his 2007 first half was extaordinary, propelling him to the all star game. I personally would categorize him as an abover average shortstop, maybe even top ten, despite his first 2+ months this year. I personally would not label him as an "all-star shortstop" because to me that implies that the guy is a perennial participant in the game. He has not been to this point and I don't think he will be a guy you'll see there consistently. I hope he gets back there. But I'd put "above average shortstop" JJ Hardy as opposed to "All Star shortstop" JJ Hardy when talking about the guy. Just my take, not saying I'm right here...

 

Also, Escobar has not yet peaked, so to think that he'll automatically start hitting below .300 or whatever "cooling down" means, well, I am just not so sure. He's definitely not playing above his potential based on his numbers he has this year. And his numbers are very good. But his ceiling is even higher than his current years' numbers suggest.