More Trade Value? Parra or Escobar

[TheCrew07]

If someone hasn't come up with a way to measure a statistical impact, you don't believe, it's that simple.

 

I'm sorry, but that's a ridiculous thing to throw at Ennder, and honestly just a lazy argument.

I'm sorry but lazy is completely dismissing and ignoring valid observations that aren't statistically based. This isn't a one time thing, it's an every time thing... it doesn't matter if the topic is Weeks, Fielder, or Parra... different conversation same result. No intelligent conversation is going to take place when lines are so vehemently drawn.

 

The difference here is that I prefer to give everyone equal time and consideration, if someone is having success doing a certain task a certain way I'm going to listen. I'm not going to narrow my view to "studies" based on flawed premises, assumptions, and without valid scientific control. I'll listen to a sport psychologist give a presentation if I think it will he me, my kids, or my team. Maybe it allows to me to reach that one kid I'm struggling with. I'm a $$!%+, I'll steal an idea from anyone if it will help my cause, that's just the way I am.

 

Parra has no history of control problems in his entire career and suddenly his BB/9 is up and it's a physical thing? Experience tells me that's not how it works, physical issues are like what Frederickson has going on for WI, he's not able to repeat his delivery which leads to wildness. An MLB example would have JLDR that could never consistently find the strike zone above AA... those are mostly issues that are physical in nature. It doesn't matter if it's a pitcher, QB, a shooter in basketball, or the shanks in golf, and believe me I've had my bout with the shanks in golf, it's all the same sort of thing. Anyone who's ever pitched knows what's it like to stand on the mound and think to yourself "what the hell was that?" or similar type self talk. I can tell this you this, if you're up there thinking about failing or trying not to make a bad pitch then you're going to fail or make a bad pitch. Actual scientific studies have proven that as fact, and this why we never coach a kid on what not to do. I would never tell a kid "don't get beat deep" because they get tentative and invetitably get beat deep... instead we'll say something like "attack the ball" and get a better result. If they are only thinking about the bad outcome it becomes a self fullfilling prophecy, and on the field regardless of the game you don't want them to think, just to react.

 

Maybe Gameday shows the pitches just missing the strike zone, I'm not sure, today was the first day I followed gameday on a Parra start. However when you watch the game Parra is missing Kendell's glove by feet not inches. In the 4th inning of the MIN game his 4 seam fastball was all the way down to 87 MPH on the FSN gun, it was so obvious that he was aiming his pitches instead of just throwing them. He should have gotten crushed, I don't recall off hand someone leaving more balls thigh to waist high over the middle of plate, any MLB hitter should be able to hit that or he has no business playing at this level.

 

Parra's BB/9 is up to 5.6 from his first 2 seasons that were 4.1(still too high), his K/9 has gone down from 8.9 to 8.0 to 7.7 and predictably his whip has skyrocketed to 1.74. In his minor league career his WHIP was 1.26, his BB/9 was 2.4, and his K/9 was 8.7. He was a control pitcher with electric stuff and now you honestly believe he's just going through going pains in his 3rd season and 2nd full season in the rotation, that somehow he's physically forgotten how to repeat his delivery? There's a slight chance, but I think the evidence overwhelming supports issues of a different kind. He's not attacking hitters, he's trying to finesse them, so he wastes pitches and ends up behind in the count. I thought Sabathia's advice was spot on, just throw 3 pitches instead of 5 and get after the hitter.

 

I like Parra, I'm a huge supporter of his, I've argued against trading him and Escobar for Peavy so many times I don't even care to open that thread anymore. I just wish I could put Dave Bush's mentality into Parra and we'd have one hell of a pitcher. I've gotten to the point where I don't even want to watch him pitch because he frustrates me so much, I thought I was being smart by leaving the room when he's on the mound but I always end up rewinding the DVR to see what he did anyway. I think Parra is a pitchers version of Weeks, a guy who's immensely talented and gets in his own way up there. I loved how Weeks was attacking thae "get me over fastball" pitchers were trying to push past him, eventually the walks would have come back as advanced scouting caught on and they quit trying to get ahead in the count the easy way. However the change is Weeks' approach was obvious, he still had some balance issues with his swing, but I liked what he was doing. Similarly Parra won't improve until he attacks hitters aggressively, that's the bottom line from my lazy perspective.

[kramnoj]

You can say that a guy is struggling. You can say that his physical tools are more dependable than his concentration, or his makeup, or whatever term you want to use. But to call someone mentally weak is just dismissive. Parra wouldn't have made the majors and accomplished what he has if he was weak.

[Ennder]

I'm sorry but lazy is completely dismissing and ignoring valid observations that aren't statistically based. This isn't a one time thing, it's an every time thing... it doesn't matter if the topic is Weeks, Fielder, or Parra... different conversation same result. No intelligent conversation is going to take place when lines are so vehemently drawn.

 

But again the reasons don't matter one tiny little bit, the results do. Whether David Eckstein puts up his stats because of his grit or because of talent doesn't make one bit of different. There are 100s of reasons Parra could be missing the strike zone by so much but everyone seems to be just grabbing onto the mentally weak thing for no good reason.

 

Personally I didn't see a mentally weak pitcher at the game today, he pitched his best when things were tough, I saw a pitcher who was having problems throwing strikes like he has all season, like tons of pitchers do over a handful of starts every year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sorry if I offended you Crew07, but I still think it was an off-base comment, and a lazy argument. Ennder does not dismiss things simply because there isn't a stat, and quite frankly I just get tired of seeing that line thrown at people that do place more value in stats than others.

[thebruce44]

We shouldn't have to give up anything near any of the players mentioned in this thread. Less than a month from now, the Pads will be willing to give away Peavy to any team who will take on the final year of his contract and convince him to waive his no trade clause.

 

A 5-10 prospect and another throw in should be plenty, especially compared to the crap the Cubs were offering.

[wallus]

I'm sorry if I offended you Crew07, but I still think it was an off-base comment, and a lazy argument. Ennder does not dismiss things simply because there isn't a stat, and quite frankly I just get tired of seeing that line thrown at people that do place more value in stats than others.

It was not a lazy argument at all. There were quotes provided that backed his argument quite well. If even the player agrees with what is said, then how can it be debated? Also one more thing, this website almost uses stats exclusively for everything. (many acroynms for stats that casual fans would have no idea what they mean) They are almost always accepted as fact so I find it quite alarming that you grow tired of people who use stats having "lines thrown at them". It's not the case at all. To answer the original question, Parra has more trade value because of his ceiling.

[TooLiveBrew]

What I think was lazy was Crew saying that Ennder doesn't believe anything unless there's a stat to back it up. This is getting twisted around.

[mkm13]

Escobar will not be traded. The brewers can't continue trading top talent who they would have for a low price for awhile. IMO there are a group of 4 guys who could be traded before the end of the year. They are Prince, Hardy, Cameron and Hart.

[JohnBriggs12]

You can say that a guy is struggling. You can say that his physical tools are more dependable than his concentration, or his makeup, or whatever term you want to use. But to call someone mentally weak is just dismissive. Parra wouldn't have made the majors and accomplished what he has if he was weak.

How is the term "mentally weak" any more dismissive than say "he lacks poise under pressure". They're basically the same thing. Gallardo gets praised for his mound presence, maturity and poise. None of those things is a measurable stat but to anyone who's watched baseball for any length of time it's obvious. If that's true then the opposite is also that some guys seem to struggle when the heat is turned up. Call it what you want, but that's not an attribute that is desirable in a pitcher. Is that fair in the case of Parra? Well, the other day my sister who's seen a lot of baseball but doesn't follow it with nearly the passion I do said straight out without provocation that "Parra is weak mentally". If that's the perception of the casual fan, it's likely to be the pereception around baseball too.

[Ennder]

"How is the term "mentally weak" any more dismissive than say "he lacks poise under pressure"."

 

This is specifically the argument I have a problem with btw. I don't have a problem with people who say he overthinks and makes too many adjustments etc, that stuff is still opinion but I don't have a big issue with it because he has admitted he does it sometimes. Lots of pitchers say this same thing so it is pretty common though so I don't think that makes him 'mentally weak'.

 

If Parra lacks poise under pressure than why does he have a career .488 OPS against with 2 out and RISP and why does he have a career .693 OPS against with RISP and a .739 with runners on. He is at his worst with nobody on. That doesn't show a lack of poise under pressure and pretty much completely debunks the idea.

 

Parra has two big issues, he has problems throwing strikes for whatever reason and he has a lot of problems the 3rd time through the order. These are things that most young pitchers struggle with so I don't really think it says much out of him personally.

[kramnoj]

How is the term "mentally weak" any more dismissive than say "he lacks poise under pressure". They're basically the same thing.

 

You just said they aren't the same thing. That's why the phrase mentally weak is more dismissive.

 

If that's true then the opposite is also that some guys seem to struggle when the heat is turned up.

 

Yes. Those are average and below average pitchers. Parra for his career in the majors has been basically an average pitcher. How could he possibly be average if he was so weak?

 

If that's the perception of the casual fan, it's likely to be the pereception around baseball too.

 

There is a difference between perception and the statement that Parra is, without doubt, mentally weak.

 

Personally, I think Parra looks like he gives off a vibe that people don't like. Maybe it's because he doesn't have steely eyes, or maybe it's his little soulpatch, I don't know, but he obviously rubs people the wrong way.

[giffted1]

Personally, I think Parra looks like he gives off a vibe that people don't like. Maybe it's because he doesn't have steely eyes, or maybe it's his little soulpatch, I don't know, but he obviously rubs people the wrong way.

Quite honestly, I think Manny growing a goatee would do more to put an end to this mentally weak talk than his pitching could.

[Invader3K]

Maybe he could grow a full beard like Dave Bush.

[cwolf2012]

Is the "full" supposed to be in blue, Invader?

[Invader3K]

Hmmm...yeah, maybe. But it looks downright mountain man-ish compared to the splotch Manny is currently sporting.

[Ennder]

He looks like Ted Lilly to me.

 

http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/manny-parra-709744.jpg

vs

 

http://cubs.topbuzz.com/cubs-pictures/d/412-2/ted-lilly-capt_5ce281ea4bcc4d73b5653cf7548473d7_cardinals_cubs_baseball_cxc103.jpg

[CheezWizHed]

That's hair on Lily's chin? I thought it was a shadow in a deep chin dimple...

[Ennder]

I dunno what it is, but I meant the entire face. If you had them swap uniforms I probably wouldn't know which is which. It is more striking on TV as they have the same facial expressions too.