ANY chance Ben Sheets rejoins the team?

[JJHardy7]

Another common misconception is that Ben Sheets was overpaid or didn't earn his contract. He was actually very underpaid. How many of the booing Brewer fans would admit that? This value is according to fangraphs. 2005 Salary 6 mil, Value 12.7 mil 2006 Salary 9.6 mil, Value 14.7 mil 2007 Salary 11.1, Value 9.4 2008 Salary 12.1, Value 20.6

 

I like some of the information from fangraphs, but not all of it. It's not clear cut. What is the loss in wins going from a #1 starter to a #6+ starter? In other words, if you plug in Sheets replacement and include that in his stats what does that tell us? I know that's not 100% fair, but teams don't sign players usually to play 1/4, 1/2, or 3/4 of a season at the amount of the 'value' from fangraphs. When Sheets was healthy, he was a very good pitcher and there's no doubt he earned his money. I just always felt that he was a risk because you're usually not going to get a 6 or 7 man rotation together. It's hard enough to get 5 quality starters and when Sheets went down you go from an ace to a poor starter. To me, that's a huge drop off.

[rluzinski]

What is the loss in wins going from a #1 starter to a #6+ starter? In other words, if you plug in Sheets replacement and include that in his stats what does that tell us?

 

That's exactly how estimate pitcher value. A pitcher is worth the difference between them and a AAAA type pitcher for the number of innings they pitch in a year. If a starter only goes 100 innings, they have no value for half a season.

[cwolf2012]

"If it was such a non-issue, he'd be signed by now"

 

I'm not sure what to make of this statement jjhardy7. I guess you're right in that injuries are a concern right now, as he had to have elbow surgery, but I'm guessing it has more to do with the fact that the team that signs him has to give up a 2nd or 1st round pick if he signs before the draft. And since the earliest he would come back is August, why would any team give up a draft pick to sign him. I'm guessing he will receive a couple offers after the draft, and Texas is most likely going to be the highest bidder.

 

And fangraphs calculates value by determining how many runs better than a AAA replacement pitcher he was. So if he pitched full seasons in each of the last 4, he would have out gained his contract by ~40 million. As it stands, he was only worth 20 million more, but to me that makes it sound like he was one hell of a deal for the Brewers.

[TheCrew07]

Most contracts will look good by the end of the deal as salaries for the top player in the game continue to escalate. The contract being good value on the open FA market and the contract being good value to the 2 Brewers are 2 separate ideas, and what's true of the former isn't necessarily true of the latter.

[TooLiveBrew]

And fangraphs calculates value by determining how many runs better than a AAA replacement pitcher he was.

 

Just for the record, FanGraphs seems to be really, really good at estimating contract value. They pretty clearly have player prices figured out almost to a 't'

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

Okay, so a little bit off topic but when is it okay to dig the Sheets jersey back out of the closet for a Miller Park appearance. Is the waiting period a year, 2 years, until he retires?

[mkm13]

The problem with that is that the domino affect doesn't end with the #6 starter. That #6 pitcher then gets replaced with the #13th or 14th best pitcher. Unless the value you talk about would be if the brewers brought up a minor leaguer having no impact on the bullpen other than the extra innings they have to throw.

 

Peoples argument about bringing CC in was that it gave the brewers a true opportunity to go deep in the playoffs (placing a higher value on these games). If that is the case, than a lower value also needs to be placed on Sheets for missing the most important time. If you want to believe fangraphs that Sheets was worth 20.6 mil last year despite missing the most important time of the year then go ahead. I will disagree and be thankful you are not pulling the strings for the Brewers.

[logan82]

I still can't believe that people think Sheets winning games for us early in the season don't matter. I wish he had been hurt early and come back later in the season. That way people would call him "clutch."

[Invader3K]

I think people understand that. Heck, without Jeff Suppan the Brewers probably would have missed the playoffs last season. It's just the irony of Sheets being injured when the team actually made it to the post-season finally that I think got to a lot of people.

[JJHardy7]

I'm not sure what to make of this statement jjhardy7. I guess you're right in that injuries are a concern right now, as he had to have elbow surgery, but I'm guessing it has more to do with the fact that the team that signs him has to give up a 2nd or 1st round pick if he signs before the draft. And since the earliest he would come back is August, why would any team give up a draft pick to sign him. I'm guessing he will receive a couple offers after the draft, and Texas is most likely going to be the highest bidder.

 

I guess I should clarify a bit. Let's say Sheets would be willing to sign for $3 million this year. I'd imagine there would be/would've been teams signing him to that type of deal and giving up 2nd round+ picks. Either Sheets wants more money or teams are scared of his injury history. I know it's hard to know to what level and what specific injury history they're worried about. When was it 'known' that Sheets was going to be out for the year? IIRC he didn't have much interested, but if I also remember the specifics of his injury weren't known for awhile. Did he not have any interest BEFORE the significance of the surgery?

 

Just for the record, FanGraphs seems to be really, really good at estimating contract value. They pretty clearly have player prices figured out almost to a 't'

 

I agree with this, but I also agree with mkm13 to a degree. I just don't think you can calculate a value of a #1 going down, having a #6+ pitcher replace him, and then have the bullpen take on extra issues if you're #6 is bad or pitches like a #10. I'm not saying Sheets contract wasn't fair or anything like that. I just think sticking by how underpaid he was wouldn't be right at least from the Brewers point of view. I think fangraphs is an excellent tool for players who don't miss a lot of time with injuries. You can swap #1 for a #6, but I just don't know how you'd put a specific value on potentially having most of your bullpen pitching more, which in turn could lead to your relief pitchers having worse numbers.

 

I still can't believe that people think Sheets winning games for us early in the season don't matter. I wish he had been hurt early and come back later in the season. That way people would call him "clutch."

 

I know winning games early in the season is important. I just have a hard time exactly saying that Sheets value was x or y compared to his contract. The drop off goes beyond swapping him out for a #6 type SP.

[mkm13]

I still can't believe that people think Sheets winning games for us early in the season don't matter. I wish he had been hurt early and come back later in the season. That way people would call him "clutch."

Where did anyone say that Sheets winning games for us early in the season didn't matter? It did matter, just not worth close to 20.6 million. If Sheets was worth 20.6 million than every payroll in baseball would be over 150 million.

[TooLiveBrew]

But your statement that it's not worth it is just completely arbitrary. Guys get overpaid & underpaid... it happens. FanGraphs' salary/value estimates are very well calculated.

[rluzinski]

People really need to do some independant research before criticizing something. Fangraphs has 8 articles on their (mostly Tango'san really) methodology. There's plenty to disagree on after you read it. Google, Pitcher Win Values Explained

 

Sheets was found to be worth $20.6 mil because his performance was deemed 43 runs better than an average AAAA starting pitcher . They are saying that every 9.4 runs saved is equal to 1 win, so Sheets was 4.6 wins better. Whether that win occured on opening day or during game 162 is largely irrelevant in terms of making or not making the playoffs.

 

Anyway, teams on average pay about $4.6 mil for every win over replacement level through free agency, so that's the last piece of the puzzle. Teams get plenty of above average talent from pre-arby guys, which is why this calculation is only relative to free agents and why the average payroll is not $150 mil.

[cwolf2012]

"If you want to believe fangraphs that Sheets was worth 20.6 mil last year despite missing the most important time of the year then go ahead. I will disagree and be thankful you are not pulling the strings for the Brewers. "

 

He was worth 20.6 million dollars worth of runs according to the free agent market of last year. When those runs happen doesn't matter over the course of a full season. If you want to go ahead and take 5 million of that and put it in the playoffs, you wouldn't have the chance. Without Sheets last year, we don't make the playoffs, and that's a fact.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Without Sheets last year, we don't make the playoffs, and that's a fact".

 

Not without Sabathia they don't because Sheets was MIA down the stretch again. I give Sheets credit for getting them in position to make the Sabathia deal worth it.

 

Had Sheets answered the bell the last 2 weeks of September 2007, they would have made the playoffs that year and had he stayed healthy through all of 2006, they would could have won a division that was there to be had that year and those are facts too.

[cwolf2012]

Why can't it be "without Sheets or without Sabathia we don't make the playoffs"? Each of them were extremely valuable.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly Briggs, give it up on Sheets. The guy was huge for us in 2008, and was the main reason the team was in it in the other seasons you're picking & choosing two week or one week windows to crucify the guy for.

[JJHardy7]

Sheets was found to be worth $20.6 mil because his performance was deemed 43 runs better than an average AAAA starting pitcher . They are saying that every 9.4 runs saved is equal to 1 win, so Sheets was 4.6 wins better. Whether that win occured on opening day or during game 162 is largely irrelevant in terms of making or not making the playoffs.

 

Oh I understand and I agree with that. I've looked it and it does have some nice value. I guess for me it's hard to take Sheets (or any other player) and try to figure out the value when the player is hurt. I guess IMO there are just too many moving parts to extract an exact value if that makes sense. Sheets was a great pitcher when healthy and my guess is he made the bullpen look pretty good too since those guys got more rest when he's healthy. It's a two way street I guess.

 

I'm not the biggest Sheets fan, but IMO there's no doubt in my mind that we miss the playoffs without Sheets or Sabathia. He did have extreme value to the team when he was healthy.

[rluzinski]

Sheets and Jenkins kept the Brewers from winning 5 World Series. Facts are facts. It's just so painful to have to read posts that try to blame one specific player for whatever. When ever people feel wronged, they want to be able to point to one person and say, it's your fault! JohnBriggs is bitter and he need to direct it at a face. It's the collective performance of every player that dictates the success the failures of a team. I can point to any player and say that if he had played better or more, x would have happened. What's the point?

[Thurston Fluff]

If you want to go ahead and take 5 million of that and put it in the playoffs, you wouldn't have the chance. Without Sheets last year, we don't make the playoffs, and that's a fact.

 

It's most certainly is not a fact because we can't really tell if we would have or not because we don't know what else we would have done with that same money. We need look no further than this years rotation to see it is possible to win without him. We don't have the same level of pitchers in the rotation this year but that doesn't seem to be a problem in the win column so far. It is telling that we are ahead of last year's pace when he was in the rotation and healthy so that money must have been spent pretty well.

What we know factually is we made the playoffs with contributions from him. I think we can also safely say we lost in the playoffs in part because of him. Have to give him the blame were due if you want to give him the credit he was due.

Not only did he not pitch there but his injury seriously effected CC's ability to pitch effectively in the playoffs. We might not have gone without him but are not sure if that is a fact or if his money could have been better spent. We do know he hampered our ability in the playoffs. That fact is hard to argue.

[cwolf2012]

"It's most certainly is not a fact because we can't really tell if we would have or not because we don't know what else we would have done with that same money. We need look no further than this years rotation to see it is possible to win without him. We don't have the same level of pitchers in the rotation this year but that doesn't seem to be a problem in the win column so far. It is telling that we are ahead of last year's pace when he was in the rotation and healthy so that money must have been spent pretty well. "

 

You think we could have gotten MORE than 20 million dollars of value with the 12 million we paid Sheets? If every free agent/arbitration/contract extended player on our team performed a 1.67x the cost of his contract, we'd be in the playoffs pretty much every year.

 

If you take away 1.2 wins (5 million of value) from him last year, we don't make the playoffs. I don't understand how someone can be upset with someone who pitched 200 innings of 3.09 ERA baseball. It's not like we were paying him 23 million for that.

[lukevan]

Not only did [sheets] not pitch there but his injury seriously effected CC's ability to pitch effectively in the playoffs.

 

huh?

[mkm13]

People really need to do some independant research before criticizing something. Fangraphs has 8 articles on their (mostly Tango'san really) methodology. There's plenty to disagree on after you read it. Google, Pitcher Win Values Explained

 

Sheets was found to be worth $20.6 mil because his performance was deemed 43 runs better than an average AAAA starting pitcher . They are saying that every 9.4 runs saved is equal to 1 win, so Sheets was 4.6 wins better. Whether that win occured on opening day or during game 162 is largely irrelevant in terms of making or not making the playoffs.

 

Anyway, teams on average pay about $4.6 mil for every win over replacement level through free agency, so that's the last piece of the puzzle. Teams get plenty of above average talent from pre-arby guys, which is why this calculation is only relative to free agents and why the average payroll is not $150 million.

I know how it works, you don't need to explain. This site is great in that people are very aware of statistics and use them all the time in arguments (sometimes very well). At the same time, some people look at statistics and can't take them for what they really are. You need to be able to seperate yourself from what a statistic says and understand the reasons and all the external variables that go along with it before throwing out all these claims. You can manipulate statistics to say many things. Fangraphs is throwing a number out there based on a formula. In general it is good. Unfortunatly, there are more variables that determine a players value than what is in this formula. For example, a player would not be worth as much if you knew going into the year they were going to miss the last 1/4 of the year and they couldn't pitch in the playoffs. For 1, the teams that would pay that much that are driving that number so high have goals of winning the world series...not just making the playoffs. So they wouldn't come close to giving that kind of money to a guy that wouldn't help them once they reached the playoffs.

 

The fact is no team in their right mind would pay any pitcher 20.6 million a year to continually do what he did. Pitch very well for 3/4 of the year but then miss the end of the year and the playoffs. I realize he was important for a good part of the year. I realize we wouldn't have made the playoffs without him. I also realize we wouldn't have made the playoffs if we didn't have a dozen other players on the roster. Most of the other dozen players were not worth 20.6 million either.

[TooLiveBrew]

For example, a player would not be worth as much if you knew going into the year they were going to miss the last 1/4 of the year and they couldn't pitch in the playoffs

 

The monetary values are based on performance. What a guy actually pitched. Not what he might have been worth if it was a full season. You said you knew how this worked.

[1992casey]

Not only did [sheets] not pitch there but his injury seriously effected CC's ability to pitch effectively in the playoffs.

 

huh?

Had Ben been available, Sabathia may not have needed to make as many starts on three days rest.