The Corey Hart thread

[Ennder]

I just don't get why its ok to erase a few weeks from last year

 

 

It isn't erasing it, it is putting things into context. Corey Hart didn't stink all year, he did about what is expected out of him until late September and then had a just woefully bad last 3 weeks with a line of .32/.159/.197/.356 over the last 20 games. To get the big picture you have to break a season down. Now that terrible month could be due to injury, could be due to pitchers figuring him out, could be due to him being tired like he said, could just be a slump, we don't know for sure.

 

If you just want the most accurate data sample you are probably best off using 3-4 years of data so that is more valuable than his last 150 games, if you want to look just at a recent block of games then you probably need to break things down and look at the hows and whys of what he did over that sample to get anything more meaningful out of it.

[TooLiveBrew]

In other words, he'll be patient enough to get on base one way or another. Hart doesn't seem to have that IMO

 

This is a great example of the problem in analysis, though. As recently as just earlier this season, Corey was taking walks. It's just too soon to start calling him 'the next Bill Hall'... and as logan astutely pointed out, that comparison is most likely flawed anyway.

[shelmark]

I don't think 'patience' has anything to do with his problem. The problem is pitch recognition. He obviously can't determine if the pitch is a slider, and once he does he can't figure out if it is a ball or strike. Patience means you aren't anxious at the plate. I don't see Hart that way at all. I never thought Hart would be great, but I thought we could pencil him in for .280, 20 HR, 20 SB and solid defense.

[rluzinski]

If you want to offer up your best personal guess on a player's expected future performance, you can do whatever you want. If you are trying to do objective statistical analysis, you can't subjectively pick and choose what you want be in your sample.

 

Some projection systems (like Marcel) use the last 3 years of data and weigh the more recent production more then the older production. They do this because they've found it to result in most accurate forcasts. Marcel uses 50/30/20. They do lot's other things but that's rough explanation for one way to use the raw data.

 

Ennder is fond of digging into the data and finding streaks. Threre may be some utility in that (especially if a bad streak is injury related) but if we are talking sample statistics, it's a big no no. We almost never know if a drastic change in production is a result of a drastic change in underlying talent, so we are almost forced to assume it's just statistical noise.

 

If our aim is to estimate true talent, there is no good reason to not include the begining of Hart's 2008 season or the Brewers great start in 2007.

[Ennder]

I don't disagree with that rluzinski.

 

I think you have two options when looking at a players statistics.

 

1. Look at at least 3 years of data and use that as your basis for what to expect. This is generally what you want to do if you have that much data.

2. Break down a shorter period of data if you think there is a really good reason part of the data is suspect.

 

Now what he is doing by just looking at 150 games is #2 and the only way that doing #2 makes sense is if you really break the data down in detail to see if there is something in it that suggests a significant change in the player. In the case of Hart you'll find one horrible 3 week streak which to me says that #2 is not a very valuable way to go, #1 is almost certainly a more reliable data set. I'd be so much more worried about Hart if he was just steadily mediocre all of 2008 than him having a very steady season and then a horrible final 3 weeks.

 

An example of #2 being a smarter way was JJ Hardy heading into 2008, I surmised that the first half of his rookie year was so terrible because he shouldn't have been in the majors that it actually corrupted the sample of data to where you would be better off not including it. In that case I ended up being correct as he put up stats you would have expected in 2008 if you were to ignore the first half of his rookie season. In effect all I did was weigh the more recent data more than I normally would because I thought the older data was a worse representation of his skillset.

 

I'm generally looking at stats with an eye towards fantasy and #2 is how you win fantasy leagues more times than not, by identifying the players who have legitimately changed before they get enough data that everyone expects it out of them.

[rluzinski]

And you also decided to weigh more heavily Kendall's production in Chicago to incorrectly conclude that Kendall would beat his projections for 2008. That's not to say that your methods aren't an improvement over blindly accepting all data but let's not cherry pick the hits without mentioning the misses. I can use anecdotal evidence to prove anything.

 

You really shouldn't discard data ONLY because it doesn't match up with expectations. If you know a guy is hurt or if you have other pertinent information that isn't captured in a guy's stat line, you should be able to beat statistical projections over the long haul, certainly. But we have to expect players' production to be way above or below expectations some of the time from randomness alone. I've made simple spreadhseets to create the most consistent player imaginable. The guy had the exact same chance to get a hit every AB. Sure enough, that little bugger STILL had some terrible slumps and some glorious hot streaks over 700 PA. A hot or cold streak proves nothing on its own.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Did you guys take any of the Acturial exams? If not, I recommend to do so because that was some very good discussion between 2 smart individuals that would have the talent to pass such an exam. Good analysis.

 

That said, Hart has been horrible lately and let's hope he gets back to at least his career norms if not better.

[Ennder]

I said that his major cold streak was fishy because of his strange strike out and walk rates in Oakland and that I'd expect something closer to the Chicago numbers than the Oakland ones. In fact my exact quote was...

 

Hitting I think Kendall will be closer to his Cub's numbers than his A's numbers, those K's and BB' were just too goofy with the A's for me to think he keeps that up.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/search.php?keywords=275373/t/Most-Likely-to-Progress-Regress.html

 

or this one

 

I think having him bat 8th should keep his OBP up near .330-.340 as he takes BB's in front of the pitcher. That doesn't really make him valuable but it probably does make him match or surpass what we got out of Estrada last year. But then again there is always the chance that he is just done too, C's do not age gracefully especially ones who logged a lot of innings.

 

His Oakland OPS was .542, his Chicago one was .718, his 2008 line was .651. His K/BB in Oakland were 27 K, 12 BB, in Chicago it was 15 K, 19 BB, in 2008 it was 45 K, 50 BB. I was a little off on the OBP expectations as he didn't manage the .330 I had hoped for ending with a .327.

 

Players towards the end of their careers, players who have had injuries, players who have wildly different numbers season to season and players who are just coming into their 3rd year of data are the ones that I generally take a closer look at. Going by straight projections is ok for the easiest of players but I think where most of the error in projection systems comes from are the harder to project players and those are the ones you generally want to break down more to see what is really going on.

 

None of this has anything to do with Hart though, I was just commenting that if you are going to use only part of his data instead of a full 3 years you need to drill down and look at it closer, not just post some random small sample and say he is finished. You need to find a reason why that smaller sample is more telling than the large one and just grabbing the data doesn't do that.

[JJHardy7]

1. Look at at least 3 years of data and use that as your basis for what to expect. This is generally what you want to do if you have that much data.

2. Break down a shorter period of data if you think there is a really good reason part of the data is suspect.

 

Can you put any weight into Corey's age or experience though? I'm not a stat guy so I'm not going to pretend to be one. I would just imagine though that given Corey's age and experience at this point he should be putting up numbers that most likely would be career highs or close to it if that makes sense. In other words, based on his struggles as of late (I know not a great sample of data) that makes me worry about it a bit more. If Corey was a rookie or second year player, I don't think many would be worrying about it. I just expected him to not make the same mistakes over and over again on certain pitches. Is that cause for worry?

[Ennder]

Just about anything can be cause for worry, just not cause to make other people worry http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. If you want to back up your opinions for being worried about Hart you are better off looking at why he is struggling than just citing his past season and saying he sucks, I guess that is the point.

 

Like I said above I'd personally be a lot more worried about Hart if he struggled all year in 2008 but the fact it was 3 crappy weeks at the very end of his first full season of games lessens it a little bit for me. This year we just don't have enough data to be worried just yet, he had a great few weeks and a bad few and of course his stats will look bad directly after the bad few, that happens with any slump. I will say that his low BB rate concerned me enough that I downgraded him on my fantasy sheets, I think that is the biggest area of concern.

[bobskube]

rluzinski wrote:

If our aim is to estimate true talent, there is no good reason to not include the begining of Hart's 2008 season or the Brewers great start in 2007.

So what is your opinion of Hart then?

[MJLiverock]

I think the anxiety people are feeling over Hart isn't just the horrible 3 weeks last September, it is the very bad OBP since May of last year. Yes, those 3 weeks in Sept. 08 were horrific but other than April of this year (when everybody walks) Hart hasn't been able to get his OBP much above .300 for any month, his best was only .310. and that was in a month where he hit .299. So basically 5 out of the last 6 months he has been below .310 with the average OBP well below .300.

 

His career line in about 1700 plate apperances is .273/.322/.475 but he hasn't really been improving and has trended down in BA and OBP, while his slugging has actually been higher than average since May 08. As was mentioned earlier is he becoming a guess hitter who can't recognize the pitch so he just swings hard at almost anything?

 

In 2007 he absolutely destroyed LHP with a OPS over 1.000 and hitting .331/.419/.613 in 160 ABs.

In 2008 he fell back to earth vs. LHP with an OPS of .797 and hitting .281/.324/.473 in 167 ABs.

 

In 07, 08, 09 vs. RHP he has been fairly consistent with a low .300's obp, only .320 in 07 but slugged really well in 2007 at .504 vs. RHP. In 2008 and 2009 he has been .400 and .450 range in slugging.

 

To me as much of an abberation the Sept. 08 results may have been, his remarkable hitting vs. LHP in 2007 may have inflated that year's stats as well.

 

He could very well be a .260/.310-.320/.425-.450 player when normalized. Meaning a .735 to .775 OPS player which as a RF is probably average to slightly below average.

[southpaw121505]

Would love for Corey to turn it around and prove me way off my rocker. Huge bomb tonight.

[naivin]

Gonna be interesting to see what Macha does with Hart tonight. I'm sure he'd love to get him back in there after hitting the HR last night, but Harang is tough, and Corey is 1-12 w/6 K's against him in his career. Bill Hall on the other hand has torched him in 44 AB's, so maybe a safe bet that he will be in there. Getting Gerut or Cat in there to get another LH bat might make some sense (even though he is about equally tough on both sides, especially where the Brewers are concerned).

[TooLiveBrew]

I sure hope Hall isn't in there based on 40-some ABs. Harang is a really tough RHP & Hall just can't hit RHP.

 

I would like to see Cat/Gerut out in RF, though.

[southpaw121505]

Gamel and Gerut would be my choice.

[logan82]

I sure hope Hall isn't in there based on 40-some ABs. Harang is a really tough RHP & Hall just can't hit RHP.

Unfortunately that is what Mach likes to do. He really seems to like the match-up thing a lot.

[monty57]

I would think that since all other factors never remain the same, reading the "noise" is an integral part of a GM's job. Of course, they're privy to "inside information" that we lowly fans will never know.

 

As an aside to those who know more about this than I, how do you attempt to predict an individual's standard deviation / year-to-year variance? It would seem likely that certain players would have more year-to-year variance than others. As Ennder has alluded, a three week stretch that is very hot or very cold can have dramatic effects on a season's stats. Players who are more prone to really hot / cold streaks could have more year-to-year variance.

 

As an example, Prince Fielder hit 28 HR in 2006, followed by 50 in 2007 (a 79% increase), followed by 34 in 2008 (a 32% decrease). His corresponding OPS went for .831 to 1.013 to .879. Meanwhile, in Albert Pujols' first three seasons, he hit 37 HR in 2001, 34 in 2002 and 43 in 2003, with corresponding OPS of 1.013, .955 and 1.106. Of course, there are multiple other factors not shown here, many of which would be considered "noise," but a quick look shows a much wider range year-to-year for Fielder than for Pujols. I'd guess most players are less consistent than Pujols, but when trying to predict what a player will do year-to-year, it would seem that a standard deviation would need to be applied, and it would likely differ, perhaps significantly, from player to player.

 

There are a lot of possibilities of what, if anything, is wrong with Hart, but one possibility is that he has a very large standard deviation. Maybe he's an .810 OPS player, but could vary from .750 to .870 on any given year. Just one possibility. Personally, I think pitchers have figured him out, and it's his turn to make a change. However, that's more of a "scout" thing, and I'm definitely not a scout.

[TooLiveBrew]

Unfortunately that is what Mach likes to do. He really seems to like the match-up thing a lot.

 

Yes, he really does. And for as much as I like his handling of the pitching staff & drastically prefer his persona to Yost's, I really am struggling to think that I could give out much better than a C or C- grade to Macha so far.

 

The way he's handling the Gamel situation to this point just borders on prospect abuse imho. It's not just that he's not playing Mat 'everyday'... it's that Gamel is getting stuck on the bench on matchups that appear to be no-brainers for him to play.

 

As for Corey, it was so good to see him get a great game under his belt. I can only hope this is the beginning of the end of his funk. Go get 'em, Corey!

[Invader3K]

Well, Hall went 1-4 for with that huge triple and scored a run, so it's not like Macha's hunch didn't play out, at least partly. I also wouldn't call 40 ABs for a hitter/pitcher match-up a small sample.

 

I also think if Macha was really "abusing" Gamel, Melvin would step in and tell Macha about the situation. If Melvin isn't too worried about it, I won't be either.

[Ennder]

Macha is handling Gamel like many other managers handle young prospects. The same way LaPorta was handled, the same way Fowler has been. I haven't had a problem with it so far as long as Gamel starts half time or more it is fine.

 

As for Hart, the Boston Globe today reported that the Red Sox and Giants have been scouting him because the Brewers would be willing to trade him for pitching. Not sure if that is true or not since Boston tends to think every other team is there to supply their team with players.

[Invader3K]

Theo's not a dumb GM, though. He probably has a decent idea of what it would take to get Corey from the Brewers. If we could trade him for a good young pitcher (something Boston has an excess of right now), I'd do it.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Can we really afford to trade Corey right now for a starting pitcher? If he is traded we are forced to play Gerut or Catallanato in his place. I dont think we can afford that drop in production. As for obtaining a starter pitcher who would they replace in our rotation right now? Whether we like it or not Suppan will be in the rotation all season and next so I just dont see where a new starter would slot in right now. Trading Hart made sense last offseason when we could have replaced his production with a guy like Adam Dunn but now we would be unable to adequately replace what Corey could potentially give us.

[Ennder]

Gerut isn't really a drop in production from Hart vs RHP, they are pretty even. I think a trade only makes sense if it includes Parra as well and it returns an elite pitcher. Not sure that is really realistic.

 

If we trade for someone like Penny and he replaces Parra in the rotation I won't be happy as I don't think that is really an upgrade. Now replacing Suppan wouldn't bother me but I just don't see it happening.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If they are going to do a trade for Corey it should be after the season. Who would another starter replace in the rotation? Soup would be the obvious one, but they aren't going to let a $10MM+ contract take over McClung's role. The dropoff in the lineup that has already suffered from losing Weeks would be too much.

 

Corey is a streaky player...it's nice to see him picking it up. Since some were looking at his last 150 games...Corey could still make his trailing 162 look good with a couple solid weeks!