The Corey Hart thread

[Ennder]

Hart is swinging at low and away less than he did last season, he is missing the ball right down the middle way more than last season. I don't know if it is just a slump or he has lost bat speed or what though.

[RyDogg66]

I bet Melvin and company sit around and laugh thinking about how Hart's agent turned down those long term offers.

Yeah, and with a hairless cat on their laps too.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/topstory/ash0730.jpghttp://www.garnersclassics.com/pics/austin2/evil2.jpg

[naivin]

1-4 last night with 2 more strikeouts, making him 2 of his last 14 with 8 strikeouts. Admitedly, Braun's wrist may play a role, but just as he had not hit Wainwright in his career, he is 1-11 lifetime against Wellemeyer (.167 OBP). So, the question is will Macha throw him out there again against another RHP for some inexplicable reason (assuming Braun plays), when he has two LH outfielders on the bench?

[JohnBriggs12]

I bet Melvin and company sit around and laugh thinking about how Hart's agent turned down those long term offers.

No, I bet they sit around and kick themselves for not trading him when he had a lot of value.

[naivin]

I believe the Brewer face 4 more straight RHPs at Miller Park the next few days. I would take the opportunity to throw Gerut out there, in the lead off spot (Counsell second), and see what he can do. The way Hart is going, that would be giving up nothing, and could potentially find something.

[sgtcluels]

Is it even surprising that he swings a lot? He has and probably will always hack. When he was on a hot streak he was patient at the plate, I don't know how the management can get him to be more patient, but what are you going to do?

[bjkrautk]

Hart is swinging at low and away less than he did last season, he is missing the ball right down the middle way more than last season. I don't know if it is just a slump or he has lost bat speed or what though.

These conclusions match up with what I'm seeing by Tracking Corey's Plate Discipline numbers off Fangraphs over the course of the season. Corey's swinging at fewer pitches overall (balls and strikes) while making contact considerably less often than he has over the course of his career. Not sure if it's a slump, or something of a long-term problem (like fitting the square peg into a round hole -- making over Corey's swing doesn't seem to be helping).

[Ennder]

It could be that he is so worried about swinging at that bad pitch that he is committing to the good pitch later than normal and missing it. He does seem to be checking his swings a ton. Whatever is going on I don't much like it!

[southpaw121505]

Well that's a huge problem then. Crushing a meat pitch is instinct, if there is thought or hesitation he's obviously going to be late. He has been awful, I don't agree at all that the sample is unfair or plucking the bad to make it look worse. Use the entire year last year, even the good, even then he had a .300 OBP. That's disgusting. So far, he's been more bad than good overall and it's looking more and more like a one great year thing like with Hall.

[logan82]

Hart also had a .353 OBP in 2007. This was after he already had 300+ AB at the MLB level so it isn't like he snuck up on people that year. I wouldn't claim that his true talent is what he was in 2007, just that I think people are to easily dismissive of his good year and focusing on his bad year. This year should have only a little influence on what we think of him as a player. We all know he was bad after the AS break last year. I don't see how anybody can't claim using this year and his bad half of last year isn't cherry picking stats. Regardless of the sample size, it is intentionally picking a time when he played poorly.

[southpaw121505]

He's only had one really good year and the rest meh.

 

2006- .283/328/468/796 (ok year, but just 237 ABs)

2007- .295/353/539/892 (his one great year)

2008- .268/300/459/759

 

Other than 07, he's been just ok at best.

[TooLiveBrew]

Regardless of the sample size, it is intentionally picking a time when he played poorly.

 

To be fair, the assertion (if I may take this liberty) is that Hart is not a great player, and said sample represents his true talent -- where 2007 does not. Not saying I really agree with that, but I do think it's relevant to point to this sample when the sample is lining up with one's opinion of Hart.

 

 

EDIT: Couple of typos... bad ones http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

If by ok you mean average then I agree. His 2006 was almost exactly league average that year. I think most people are to easily dismissing his 2007 season. .759 OPS compared to a MLB average .798 OPS for right fielders, it isn't terrible. The OBP for 2008 sucks, but overall it isn't as horrible as it is made out.

[Ennder]

You could probably also look at his stats in early September and say that last year was just a bad 3 weeks and he has been average or better for the rest of his 3 seasons. What he does the rest of this year is going to really decide which angle is the right one.

[logan82]

To be fair, the assertion (if I may take this liberty) is that Hart is not a great player, and said sample represents his true talent -- where 2007 does not.

 

I don't think anybody is saying he is a great player. I do think many people are saying Hart is a bad player and should be playing very little or should be replaced. I am saying that they are picking a time when he played poorly and saying that is what kind of player he is. I think the time when he played well is getting ignored. I think his talent lies somewhere in between where most of the claims seem to be that he is the player he has been over the last year.

[southpaw121505]

My whole thing is that his one really good year is the one that stands out. It's looking more and more like he's not the player we(or I) thought he could be after his great 07. He's just average, I don't think he's bad. But average isn't as exciting as thinking he can be a legit above average to great player. That guy from 07 is a cornerstone, everything else has been average and replaceable.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think anybody is saying he is a great player.

 

I'd typed "... is that Hart isn't a good player", but I just felt bad typing that... so I changed it to "great" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ayt]

Since the All-Star game last year he's hit .241/.285/.394 in 108 games and 424 ABs.

[WV Brew]

No one has mentioned the possibility of injury. I noticed at the end of last year he didn't seem to be throwing well either. It kind of shocked me as someone who doesn't see the Brewers as regularly. He seemed to have a plus arm in the games I had seen him before. The ESPN announcers also said something about a hand injury. I hadn't heard that. They think it's hurting his power. Anyway, I believe there may well be elbow/shoulder issues that we just don't know about. It's strange he would drop off this much all of a sudden. He did have a fairly long run of decent production before this period. I'm sure the other teams knew before this about the slider.

[JJHardy7]

That would be great if a team knows when a player is going to play well or not but it doesn't work that way. I could see Hart starting to lose some AB against righties or get a day or two off but that's about it right now.

 

If he hasn't played all that well the last year, that might be an indication. It's 150 games and not at-bats. I guess I don't know what you would use as a good sample or good indicator, but I think it is fair to go back the last 150+ games or so and look at what he's done. I don't think I would call Hart 'good'. I think he's average and at times he can be good, but at other times he can be below average.

 

I'm not a stat guy, but I wonder if there's any way to compare the streaks some hitters on this team (Hardy, Hart, Cam, etc) go on with other players. It seems they're either hot or cold to a large gap, but that could just be 'normal' I guess.

[kalle8]

corey hart, the most sung "unsung hero". he's really bad right now, RF is the place were a LH bat will be inserted the next season, but next season could be late.

[Ennder]

t's 150 games and not at-bats. I guess I don't know what you would use as a good sample or good indicator, but I think it is fair to go back the last 150+ games or so and look at what he's done

 

Just looking at the final stat line over the past 150 games doesn't tell you the big picture though. Hart really struggled for 3 weeks of last season, until mid September he was hitting the ball just fine, does an absolutely anemic final 3 weeks offset the rest of the year when you are trying to decide the future of a player? He hit the ball fine this year until 2 weeks ago and thus you get into a bit of a data issue because everyone looks bad directly after a slump and good right after a hot streak.

[southpaw121505]

I don't care how you dissect it, if the end result is a guy getting on 30% of the time for an entire year(600+ ABs), then that's bad. I just don't get why its ok to erase a few weeks from last year and say look he was ok otherwise, but it's not ok to look at the last 150+ games because it's plucking the bad?

 

Bill Hall 2006 = Corey Hart 2007

[logan82]

I just don't get why its ok to erase a few weeks from last year and say look he was ok otherwise, but it's not ok to look at the last 150+ games because it's plucking the bad?

Neither one is ok. We should be looking at his career as a whole and expecting a small improvement based on his age.

 

 

Bill Hall 2006 = Corey Hart 2007

 

I think you are wrong on this. Hall was never a very good hitter in the minors. His 2006 season was pretty surprising considering his minor league numbers. Hart on the other hand was a very good hitter through much of his time in the minors.

[JJHardy7]

Just looking at the final stat line over the past 150 games doesn't tell you the big picture though. Hart really struggled for 3 weeks of last season, until mid September he was hitting the ball just fine, does an absolutely anemic final 3 weeks offset the rest of the year when you are trying to decide the future of a player? He hit the ball fine this year until 2 weeks ago and thus you get into a bit of a data issue because everyone looks bad directly after a slump and good right after a hot streak.

 

What will tell you the big picture though? That's an honest question. Aren't streaks part of baseball? I guess I'm just asking how do you value Hart. Yes, he's shown he can hit at times. I just think when he's off he's way off if that makes any sense. His approach becomes a huge problem and I don't know if that's best for the future of the Brewers. If a guy has a good approach most of the time, he'll be able to offset cold streaks by hitting the right pitches and walking. In other words, he'll be patient enough to get on base one way or another. Hart doesn't seem to have that IMO.

 

What is the right amount of games or time to judge a player? I know you can't take hot streaks out, but you can't take cold streaks out either. Weeks is a great example of a guy that's looked like a stud or a dud multiple times. Hart might be in the same boat.