Matt Holliday

[nate82]

If Hart continues to slump and play like Hall in the OF should the Brewers go after Holliday?

 

What would it take for the Brewers to get Holliday from the A's?

[trwi7]

Sub .800 OPS. For what it would take to get him, I don't want him.

[nate82]

Sub .800 OPS. For what it would take to get him, I don't want him.

He would do better than Hart in RF though. At least with Holliday you know you have a hitter is more patient. Also how much is that .800 OPS is from playing in Oakland and the AL West the same can be said about his career OPS while playing in Colorado though.

 

I would definitely take Holliday over Hart right now. I doubt Holliday's price will be to high since it is only a half of a year rental. Holliday would probably have a better than sub .800 OPS if he played in Milwaukee compared to playing in Oakland and the AL West.

[BrewPackBuck]

Lets compare the two.

 

Hart: 163 AB's .245 AVG, .322 OBP, .399 SLG, .721 OPS, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 19 BB, 44 SO

Holliday: 156 AB's .269 AVG, .352 OBP, .429 SLG, .781 OPS, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 17 BB, 28 SO

 

I dont see a signifigant upgrade other than Holliday doesnt strikeout as much. So I wouldnt want to waste sending prospects over to the A's for a minimal upgrade.

[nate82]

Lets compare the two.

 

Hart: 163 AB's .245 AVG, .322 OBP, .399 SLG, .721 OPS, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 19 BB, 44 SO

Holliday: 156 AB's .269 AVG, .352 OBP, .429 SLG, .781 OPS, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 17 BB, 28 SO

 

I dont see a signifigant upgrade other than Holliday doesnt strikeout as much. So I wouldnt want to waste sending prospects over to the A's for a minimal upgrade.

Are you looking at the park factors? The only place that Holliday has a chance to actually improve his slugging is when he plays against the Rangers and that is when they are playing in Arlington. Holliday would only increase his numbers in a more hitter friendly league especially in the NL Central where you have a lot of hitter friendly ballparks. It would be more than a marginal increase having Holliday instead of Hart.

 

Face it Hart's production is going to drop off more in the coming months. Hart is Bill Hall v2.0. Hart has no plate discipline at all and may even have worse plate discipline than Hall. I don't see Hart improving at all and he will become about a replacement level player. I hope the Brewers never extend Hart a long-term contract.

[nate82]

Here is a better outlook of Holliday

 

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	Col	121	400	65	116	31	3	14	57	31	86	3	3	.290	.349	.488	.837
2005	Col	125	479	68	147	24	7	19	87	36	79	14	3	.307	.361	.505	.866
2006	Col	155	602	119	196	45	5	34	114	47	110	10	5	.326	.387	.586	.973
2007	Col	158	636	120	216	50	6	36	137	63	126	11	4	.340	.405	.607	1.012
2008	Col	139	539	107	173	38	2	25	88	74	104	28	2	.321	.409	.538	.947
2009	Oak	39	153	22	41	5	1	6	27	16	28	2	0	.268	.349	.431	.780
Total	--	737	2809	501	889	193	24	134	510	267	533	68	17	.316	.384	.545	.929

 

Holliday may have had his numbers inflated in Colorado but they are definitely deflated right now in Oakland you can't say that about Hart.

 

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	Mil	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
2005	Mil	21	57	9	11	2	1	2	7	6	11	2	0	.193	.270	.368	.638
2006	Mil	87	237	32	67	13	2	9	33	17	58	5	8	.283	.328	.468	.796
2007	Mil	140	505	86	149	33	9	24	81	36	99	23	7	.295	.353	.539	.892
2008	Mil	157	612	76	164	45	6	20	91	27	109	23	7	.268	.300	.459	.759
2009	Mil	41	159	29	39	10	1	4	18	19	41	3	3	.245	.324	.396	.720
Total	--	447	1571	232	430	103	19	59	230	105	319	56	25	.274	.323	.476	.799

2007 was a career best for Hart and I don't see him doing that again. He will be somewhere between a .750 and .800 OPS type of a player with his OPS mainly being brought up by his SLG.

 

Now Holliday on the other hand is more of a .850 to .900 OPS type of a player. Holliday's numbers would only increase from the time he would be in Milwaukee and there would be teams next year willing to sign Holliday so the picks will be there for the Brewers and Holliday will be a type-A free agent next year. The Yankees will go out and get Holliday next year without a doubt in my mind though.

 

I don't believe the cost will be that high for Holliday. The A's didn't really give up all that much for Holliday they stole him from the Rockies.

[BrewPackBuck]

Are you looking at the park factors? The only place that Holliday has a chance to actually improve his slugging is when he plays against the Rangers and that is when they are playing in Arlington. Holliday would only increase his numbers in a more hitter friendly league especially in the NL Central where you have a lot of hitter friendly ballparks. It would be more than a marginal increase having Holliday instead of Hart.

 

Face it Hart's production is going to drop off more in the coming months. Hart is Bill Hall v2.0. Hart has no plate discipline at all and may even have worse plate discipline than Hall. I don't see Hart improving at all and he will become about a replacement level player. I hope the Brewers never extend Hart a long-term contract.

Ok who would you give up to get Holliday if he is even available?

[nate82]

Looking at the prospects to find someone the A's would like I could only find Gindl, Gillespie, and Braddock maybe even Rogers. The Brewers could center the piece around Gindl who looks to be someone Billy would want he almost fits the money ball type of player. I doubt the A's will get much for Holliday with the way he is hitting right now but I still believe he is better than what he is showing.

 

Gindl and Braddock for Holliday wouldn't be a bad trade. It would help the offense out at least.

[twobrewers]

The A's are in a real pickle with Holliday.

 

They traded away a decent package hoping to contend this year - offer arbitration - and take the picks.

 

If Holliday keeps performing at his current level, I am not sure that any team will give him a large long term contract. They could end up with a similar situation with the Arizona relief pitcher (Cruz?) Holliday might refuse arbitration, but not get any long term offers because no team is willing to give up draft picks for his services.

[Oldcity]

Holliday is already out of his slump. He has an .890 OPS the last 28 days. He should be fine, and the A's should be able to get something solid for him at the deadline if they decide the want to move him. That said, I prefer the Brewers go after a pitcher as opposed to A) Another rental player and B) a hitter.

[TheCrew07]

Gindl and Braddock for Holliday wouldn't be a bad trade. It would help the offense out at least.

So we have no pitching above AA, and you want throw away a high ceiling pitching prospect like Braddock for a rental of a position player? The lineup will not be the undoing of this team, I honestly have a hard time accepting why people obsess so much over the lineup. Is it because we see those guys every day and the starters every 5th?

 

That's a horrible deal for the Brewers long-term. The way this season is shaping up he might be our most advanced SP, he's a LHP, he runs it up there in the low to mid 90s consistently, and you want to trade him for a marginal upgrade over Hart? Normally I think your analysis of potential trades is pretty good but this trade just stinks. I'm sorry for the venom, but I really struggle with people wanting to dump young pitching for whomever when we don't have enough it to begin with.

 

We have positional depth, we have NO pitching depth at AA or higher (Jones aside, he's a good story but I'm not willing to jump on that bandwagon just yet)

[nate82]

So we have no pitching above AA, and you want throw away a high ceiling pitching prospect like Braddock for a rental of a position player? The lineup will not be the undoing of this team, I honestly have a hard time accepting why people obsess so much over the lineup. Is it because we see those guys every day and the starters every 5th?

 

That's a horrible deal for the Brewers long-term. The way this season is shaping up he might be our most advanced SP, he's a LHP, he runs it up there in the low to mid 90s consistently, and you want to trade him for a marginal upgrade over Hart? Normally I think your analysis of potential trades is pretty good but this trade just stinks. I'm sorry for the venom, but I really struggle with people wanting to dump young pitching for whomever when we don't have enough it to begin with.

 

We have positional depth, we have NO pitching depth at AA or higher (Jones aside, he's a good story but I'm not willing to jump on that bandwagon just yet)

Actually I believe Scarpetta is the most advanced SP in the system right now. Also Holliday has busted out of that slump and is going to be more than marginally better than Hart. If the trade is done right now you have to put in a pitching prospect but I am wondering right now if the Brewers could dump Hart and Gindl for Holliday instead. I was just looking for Beane type of players and Gindl and Braddock are the two players I could see Beane gushing over. I believe Hart could also be a Beane type of a player who he would be looking for if Hart could get his walks up.

 

A Hart and a pitching prospect could probably land Holliday but I think sending Gindl and Hart to the A's for Holliday would be a better approach. This also clears some cap space for next year and I don't see any pitchers becoming available for the Brewers to go after. I believe this year in the trade market it is Peavy or marginal pieces like Milwood, Padilla, and Bedard. I wouldn't mind Bedard but the Mariners are going to shop him like an ace and I'm not convinced the Brewers should give up ace type quality trade chips for Bedard. Forget about Lee the Indians are not going to trade Lee his option for next year is chump change and I don't see the Indians trading Lee at all with that option being so cheap.

 

This trade market is going to be a hitters market this year with DeRosa, Holliday, and others available. I really wouldn't mind having Holliday on the team for a half of a year. If Holliday is available in July near the deadline I expect the A's to get a Teixeira type of trade return (the Atlanta to Angels trade not the Texas to Atlanta trade). Hart could be a Kotchman type of player.

[TheCrew07]

I think you missed my point..

 

Who cares about hitters when rotation is very average and we already have a good offense? Why trade any pitching for more hitting, when the hitting isn't broke?

[JCREW]

TheCrew07 wrote:

Who cares about hitters when rotation is very average and we already have a good offense? Why trade any pitching for more hitting, when the hitting isn't broke?

Count me in on this side of the aisle. Hart will be serviceable. MacGahee has been positive at 2B. The starting pitching hit a hot stretch, but will probably scuffle or have an injury.

[Tbadder]

I do believe that Hart will become a problem increasingly. If not a strict Gerut/Hart platoon we are going to suffer. But in the end I've got to side with those who aren't interested in Holliday, Pitching, pitching, pitching. Though in the end I think the Crew are more likely to be sellers than buyers.

[twobrewers]

Between projecting the Brewers as "sellers" (they would probably have to lose around 30 of the next 40 games to be "sellers") and comparing Brett Lawrie to Bill Hall - I would say TBadder is having a pretty pessimistic day.

[Tbadder]

Yeah, I do that sometimes. Not this time though. I really was just trying to understand Lawrie, knowing full well just about everyone here knows more about minor leaguers than me. As far as sellers go...I just don't see how we are going to be playoff bound with that starting staff. Eventually it's got to get ugly...losing Weeks, Hart heading south on a permanent basis...oh geez, here I go again!

[kramnoj]

I just don't see how we are going to be playoff bound with that starting staff.

 

The Brewers right now are in the playoff picture, and that starting staff isn't really performing at unsustainable levels. It's too early to seriously think about the playoffs, but the Brewers are competing with a few teams for the division title and maybe one team from the East for the WC.

 

And really, how many players would the Brewers sell? Cameron might get a B prospect if a team is desperate. Hoffman too. But if those guys are doing well enough to be worth that much in a trade, the team probably won't be eager to trade them away.

[sargennm]

And really, how many players would the Brewers sell? Cameron might get a B prospect if a team is desperate. Hoffman too. But if those guys are doing well enough to be worth that much in a trade, the team probably won't be eager to trade them away.

Plus if those guys continue to perform at the rate they already have, they will be worth offering arby too, and if they leave, we'll get compensatory draft picks in return. I would value those much higher than another team's B prospect castoffs.

[Invader3K]

I can't see any scenario right now where either Hoffman or Cameron get traded. Maybe if the team has no realistic chance of contending after the All-Star break, but even them I'm not sure they would get rid of them. They'd almost be better off trading someone like Hardy for a big haul, and stick with those two and hopefully get compensation picks after this season.

[Roderick]

I think you missed my point..

 

Who cares about hitters when rotation is very average and we already have a good offense? Why trade any pitching for more hitting, when the hitting isn't broke?

I care about the hitters. I'm not talking specifically about a Holliday trade, but if it is more economical financially to win a game 6-5 than to win a game 5-4, then take that route. In other words, even if the hitting is holding up, if pitching is more expensive comparatively, then improve the runs scored by improving the positions that are weaknesses - like Hart.

[JohnBriggs12]

I care about both the hitting and the starting pitching with are both pretty average. Oh when they are hitting HRs in bunches, they appear to be a good hitting team, but in reality, they are closer in runs scored to the bottom team (SF) than they are to the top team (LA).

 

I'd try to upgrade both areas.

[trwi7]

but in reality, they are closer in runs scored to the bottom team (SF) than they are to the top team (LA).

Of course by saying this, you make it sound like the offense is mediocre or worse when in reality it's tied for 4th in the NL in runs scored.

[Hsee2006]

Trading for Holliday would only make sense if we were going to also flip Hart for some sort of pitching (Cain, Buchholtz or Peavy) and would really be a moment of putting all our chips in and going for broke. These two trades would cost us money and would likely devastate the farm system but would be going all in in order to try to go for it during the current window of opportunity.

 

Just off the top of my head, you could do Braddock, Gindl for Holliday and then do a package of Hart, Jefress and Low A prospect for Peavy/Cain.

 

This might be giving up too much and San Diego may not want Hart's contract but it would amount to a slight upgrade in right and an upgrade in the rotation. However, the downside is that these two trade would gut our farm system and would leave a gaping hole in right field for next year. However, this trade could work long-term if next year Hardy moved to third, Escobar to short and Gamel moved to the outfield.

 

Like I said, it would be a lot to pay and I don't know if I would have the guts to pull it off but if we are going all in for a championship and are willing to sacrifice long term potential prospects then it may be worth taking the risk.

[TheCrew07]

I care about both the hitting and the starting pitching with are both pretty average. Oh when they are hitting HRs in bunches, they appear to be a good hitting team, but in reality, they are closer in runs scored to the bottom team (SF) than they are to the top team (LA).

 

I'd try to upgrade both areas.

How many prospects does the team have for goodness sake? LA has played 2 more game than everyone else at the top and the Brewers just went through a horrible cold stretch and still have a commanding lead on the rest of the NL Central. The NL East is going to score runs, I'd think the Brewers are right about where they should be in the NL. The only surprise above them is Washington... last year they finished 7th overall in runs scored and the year before 5th. They only went to the post season the year they finished 2nd overall in ERA... that's much more telling than how the offense is performing, the offense continues to do what it has for the past 3 seasons.. The staff has been solid yet unspectacular outside of a couple of outings from Bush and Yo in general, they are currently 5th.. St. Louis is actually leading the NL in ERA, I just don't see that trend continuing, outside of Carpenter they are pretty average.

 

Either way, it's way too early to be comparing runs scored and worried about NL rankings.

 

As far as the post season goes, if the plan is to outscore Pilly, LA, NYM... whomever... 8-6, 7-5, etc... then we need a new plan.