Can this team keep it up?

[kramnoj]

I don't know how many people believe that pitchers have no control over balls in play. Just less than what many people think. For example, Suppan's career BABIP is .300. Maddux's is .289. Maddux is certainly better, but the gap isn't as huge as one might think.

[joepepsi]

I don't know what happened to the prediction thread, but this is what I thought would happen. Well, Ok, maybe not this good this early!

 

I think last year's young hitters entered the season thinking they were so good they could coast through the year. Prince showed up fat, Hart, Braun, and Hall thought it was little league and they could drive every pitch. Weeks looked lost, Cameron missed the first month, Hardy had a bad back. The league's pitchers seemed ready for them and it took the better part of the year for the offense to adjust. I fully expected Prince and Braun in 2009 to get back some of that lost offense from 2007. I figured another year experience would help the other hitters make adjustments quicker and easier.

 

I was also impressed with Doug's strategy of a 5 man rotation where every pitcher is healthy, durable, and capable of 30 starts/6ip. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the number of quality starts by the rotation.

 

I think this is their true talent level. They won't continue to win every game of course, but they are better than an 85 win team. Even when they were struggling at 4-9, they had been close in all but a couple games. If they play .550 ball the rest of the way they'll finish with 92-93 wins. Barring another major injury I see no reason they shouldn't be able to do that.

[endaround]

Most pitchers are going to be between .290 and .310. It takes special cases to be outside that range, knuckleballers, etc. It doesn't mean it can't happen, but there's little to believe that anyone on the Brewers aside from perhaps Bush has such special skill. Gallardo's career BABIP is .293, it was .310 in AAA in 2007. Looper and Suppan have been pitching forever and Looper's BABIP is .295 for his career and Suppan's is .300.

[Invader3K]

I had them pegged as more like an 88 win team. I figured a lot of the offense under performed last year. I think they could achieve that at this point, but a key mid-season acquistion could push them over 90 wins quite easily.

[giffted1]

No they won't. They'll cool off again eventually. The pitching will have another bad stretch, the bats will cool off a bit, and Hoffman will give up some runs. Its inevitable. Now I don't think they'll go on a seven game losing streak, but hopefully by now we've learned that the hot streaks as well as the cold streaks don't last.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I felt before the season this was an 85 win type team. Given how well they have played and the pad they have, maybe it is closer to 90.

 

The things that worry me are - Starting pitching: I agree with some of the posts that the current run is likely not sustainable. We've caught a few teams that look lost right now. The Cubs & Cards have injuries and will be better next time we see them. The Fish looked lost and that was Bush's worst outing of the year last night IMO and the Astros couldn't take advantage of it. That last pitch to Erstad should have been a 3 run HR not an inning ending out. I did believe and still do that most prognosticators were overly pessimistic on this staff given the loss of CC & Sheets. Our staff is good. They probably aren't as good as they have been lately, but I don't expect them to fall off a cliff.

 

Defense - Our defense has been stellar. Rickie was a big part of that and the improved play of Fielder & Hall have been critical. That is also a concern I have if we see more Gamel through a shift of Hall to 2B. That is a better offensive lineup no doubt, but with a number of pitch to contact guys who've benefitted from a solid defense behind them that would concern me if Gamel couldn't handle 3B. I think he has the tools, but this is 2009 we are talking about. Our defense had a big ancillary effect on our pitching wearing out in 2007 & 2008.

 

What is sustainable - The intangibles. I know some won't believe this because there may not be a stat to defend my opinion, but this team is more composed than they've been over the last couple years. They have a less emotional manager and they are all a little older. There isn't the frenzy that surrounded the start in 2007. The team is more mature and has been through a couple playoff chases and been to the postseason. Maybe this is manifesting itself in the improved plate discipline & defense. I feel more confident that this team won't spiral out of control when they hit adversity. The vets like Cam and Hoffman are key, but so is the maturity of guys like Fielder and Braun.

 

Our bullpen - Melvin had a comment I fully agree with on Hoffman. He had 3 bad appearances last year. Take those out and he hadn't lost anything. He will blow a few before it's done, but he has solidified that pen. I also like Macha's use of the pen. No more of this he's my 8th inning guy stuff. He goes with matchups. The best example is CV's effectiveness against lefties. Macha won't worry about what inning it is, he puts the right guy in the highest leverage situation and saves the 9th for Hoffman.

 

Overall I think our team is good and has a good shot at 90 wins which could put us in the playoffs. I also like our schedule. The toughest stretch will be in September. We should be in a decent position heading into that month. There is no clear cut favorite in the NL right now since the Cubs have likely come back to the pack. That gives a shot to any team that can get hot down the stretch...like the Phillies did last year. The Brewers can be streaky and are certainly capable of getting hot...hopefully they can do it at the right time. Maybe another bullpen arm or bat off the bench would help too.

[Tbadder]

They most definitely can't keep up this pace. I still don't think they're a wild card team. As pointed out before the Cubs are just waiting to get people back and then they should walk over just about everyone. That they have hung in there missing so many important cogs is just scary.

 

Parra, Suppan, and Looper are not adequate for a playoff contender--an upgrade will be needed. These guys are competitive but lack the necessay talent against above average line ups.

 

But having said that (and of course it's merely an opinion) this is turning out to be my favorite Brewers team ever--hands down. When I see these guys taking pitches, walking like crazy, making awesome plays in the field--well, it does an old heart a powerful lot of good. I love their approach at the plate. It's actually entertaining to watch these guys make the other staff squirm. And if Sveum and Macha are responsible then count me as an official man-crusher on both. I love these guys.

[kramnoj]

Parra, Suppan, and Looper are not adequate for a playoff contender--an upgrade will be needed.

 

I would have said the same thing about Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton and Joe Blanton. The Brewers could have an offense as good as the Phillies did last year. I don't think the bullpen will be as dominant, but it looks solid enough.

[Ennder]

Parra, Suppan, and Looper are not adequate for a playoff contender-

 

I disagree on Parra and Looper is fine as a #4 on a playoff team.

 

As for BABIP, it doesn't really matter if you believe in it because it has proven to be a valuable stat for predicting the future regardless of what you think. Sounds like you guys are getting hung up on the initial theory and not where the research has led the stat in the past 8 years. When a guy is sitting at something like a .240 BABIP you know that he won't keep it up because they never do. When they are sitting at a .275 or .280 then yeah they might keep it up. BABIP varies on pitch count, pitch type, GB vs FB etc so there is no magic number that every pitcher should hit. It is still too early in the season for peripherals to really tell the whole story anyway though so the BABIP part is going to really make or break the discussion.

 

We have 3 SP that could realistically have a sub 4 ERA this year, Gallardo, Parra and Bush. We have 2 more that could plausibly be under 4.50 ERA (though I think Suppan's odds are pretty low personally). If you want to look at the negative side we have 4 pitchers who could have an ERA over 4.50 on the season as well. There is no definitive track record for these guys. Bush has seen his ERA all over the place, Parra hasn't pitched a full season yet and this is only Looper's 3rd year as a starter.

[splitterpfj]

Coming into the season, I thought the national media had missed a major point on the Brewers' starting pitching. They always pointed out the losses of Sabathia and Sheets...and then stopped talking.

 

Gallardo replaces Sheets. Yo barely pitched for the team last year, he slots right into that spot. Sabathia was here for half a season - yes, he was dominant, and yes, that's a big loss, but they don't have to replace SHEETS AND SABATHIA...they have to hope Yo fills Ben's spot, and then replace half a season from CC.

 

Looper in Sabathia's half-spot is certainly a downgrade, but it's not like they threw Rafael Roque into that spot...Braden Looper is a quality major league pitcher. Is the rotation weaker than last year? When we reach the point in the season where CC came aboard - yes, it is...but from 1-162...not as much as you may think, and if Parra develops...even less. This isn't a dominant rotation, but the comparison to last year's Phillies is a great point...they had Hamels, and a bunch of other guys....and it worked.

 

The Brewers have the offense...yes, I am concerned about the loss of Weeks in this regard...but I can't change that, and they'll have the opportunity to address that if they need to...it's early in that regard.

 

This team is set up to win. The pitchers will typically cover six innings, leaving with a chance to win. The bullpen is solid, with a proven closer, and multiple options for the 7th and 8th innings...and the offense can pull out some wins, as long as the pitchers keep it close.

 

How many times do you think this team will be blown out, because the starter just didn't have it, or the bullpen completely caved? It will happen...but look at the staff...they will give the team a chance to win most of the time. The way this team is built, the rotation is not asked to blow people away...they are asked to give the offense and the bullpen a chance to win the game.

 

They can do that.

[Invader3K]

Coming into the season, I thought the national media had missed a major point on the Brewers' starting pitching. They always pointed out the losses of Sabathia and Sheets...and then stopped talking.

 

That was a big pet peeve of mine during all the off-season hot stove analysis. It's like they just looked at the roster from the end of last year and said "Oh, these two aren't back, this team is going to suck." It's like the kind of writing you imagine some bag-eyed beat writer turning in on a cocktail napkin at 2 AM, right before the printing deadline.

[CheezWizHed]

Can they remain in 1st place? Yes, I think they can. Long way to go, but yes. They do seem much more confident this year.

 

Can they stay at the 104-58 pace? It would guarantee Ken Macha as coach of the year. But no, i don' think that will happen. My original guess was 85 wins, but I'm thinking more like 90 now.

[FVBrewerFan]

I know it's a cop-out, but it all depends on injuries (or lack thereof.) If they don't sustain any more significant injuries they will compete for the division, and I think win it. The bullpen is the biggest reason why. This stat will come as a surprise to you, but most games are close. Brewer hitters feast on bullpens, while their own bullpen is lights out. And looking at how Macha is using the bullpen, I don't expect that to change much all year.

 

They have a good recipe for success. Starting pitchers that keep you in the game, a bullpen that is the best (if not one of the best) in baseball, and a line-up that will score enough rund to win most nights. Plus they have at lest two guys who can carry the team for a 2-3 week stretch. The Reds concern me more than anyone else, but I see the Brewers playing in October again.

[Ennder]

I still think the Reds are a 4th place team. Rotation is too erratic, bullpen isn't all that great. Terrible manager. Weakest lineup of the contending teams in the central.

[thebruce44]

Considering the entire offense (outside of JJ) slumped last year and a new coaching staff is actually getting through to the free swingers, I think the offense can absolutly keep this up.

 

Starting pitching will come back to earth a bit with a couple of blowups here and there, but I do think we will finish the season in the top 4 or 5 for quality starts. The way the staff has been constructed is exactly how a team like this should be set up since the offense will win most of those games.

 

I would put us at 90-92 wins going forward, with the idea that a mid season trade for a SP could add 2-3 more wins to that total. Optimistic, maybe, but I really think people are underestimating the effect the coaching staff and previous playoff experience is having on our players.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think heading into the season, I felt this team was about 85-win talent. Even with this hot streak, I'd be surprised if the overall expectancy (based on the possibly faulty starting point of 85 wins) has bumped up into the 90s. As has been mentioned, the team will get cold... just as it's been hot recently. Just like it's a bad idea to hand out a contract extension on a 15-game hitting streak, imo it's unwise to start bumping the expected wins total too far north just because of this torrid stretch of play.

 

By my crude & unskilled math, an 85-win talent team 'should' have roughly 20 or 21 wins at this point (as opposed to the 25-14 record the Crew boasts). So assuming this is a hot streak & not newfound talent, I think the range of 88-90 wins is probably about what I'd forecast at this point for a season total.

 

 

I still think the Reds are a 4th place team

 

Me too -- no way are they more of a concern this season than CHN or STL imho.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The one thing about projecting a couple extra wins for a mid-season acquisition that makes me nervous is that the other contenders are just as or even more likely to make a move. Our farm system isn't quite as deep as last year...we don't have a spare LaPorta hanging around. We also don't have the financial flexibility we had last year. Last season the attendance surprised and they had some extra dough. This year, they've already spent that extra money.

 

They could add another bat off the bench or another bullpen arm, but that could pale in comparison to the Cubs making a move for Peavey.

[RU Rah Rah]

.650 winning pct. on the road isn't going to last through Oct.