Can this team keep it up?

[BrewPackBuck]

As the Brewers win thier 7th in a row and tieing the best start in franchise history, the last time was in 2007, I wonder if the Brewers can keep this winning up. I know the Brewers arnt going to win every game but this year feels different than the past couple years. It feels like they can go out there and win any game they want with the consistant pitching and the timely hitting it just feels like we could win every game for the rest of the season.

 

Now I would like to hear some opinions on if the Brewers are able to keep this type of winning up all season and if we could be WS bound, I know its early but I would like some opinions on that as well.

[bullox]

Once again I am reminded of what Braun said to reporters after the sluggish start. Coincidence, or did he light the fire for the second year in a row?

[splitterpfj]

This type of winning...no, they can't keep it up, unless you think this is a 120-win team.

 

The loss of Weeks is a big deal, but at least it came at a position where they have some options to try. One more big one like that would probably derail them, but that was true of Gallardo last year too, and they made the adjustments and moved on.

 

I do think they can reach the postseason, and do better this time around. With Weeks in there, I'm not sure I saw a better team in the NL.

[sbrylski]

Don't let this pitching staff fool you into thinking they are better than they are. We have about 8 guys beating their projected ERAs, and 3 more about matching theirs. (And then Julio.) We can't really expect it all to continue, they will certainly have their ups and downs.

[endaround]

To give an idea of why I'm much less sanguine about Gamel coming up and playing 3b then some are:

 

Gallardo's FIP 3.80 BABIP .249 ERA 3.09

 

Bush's FIP 4.99 BABIP .249 ERA 3.74

 

Suppan's FIP 5.75 BABIP .270 ERA 4.63

 

Looper's FIP 5.48 BABIP .285 ERA 4.26

 

Parra's FIP 4.47 BABIP .319 ERA 4.57

 

 

Aside from perhaps Bush who had a similar BABIP last season meaning he maybe pitching in a way that just makes solid contact really hard and Parra you can expect those BABIP to rise. The defense has been very, very important to this team so far

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think the general consensus was that this was about an 85 win team (.525 win%) I think that the team's talent level is about that, about an 85 win team, mabye even a little better.

 

Figuring from any point forward, you can give them a .525 win % the rest of the way. If you do that right now, you're clocking in at 90 wins on the final day of the season. 90 should have you within a game or 2 of the playoffs in most seasons.

[Patrick425]

To give an idea of why I'm much less sanguine about Gamel coming up and playing 3b then some are:

 

Gallardo's FIP 3.80 BABIP .249 ERA 3.09

 

Bush's FIP 4.99 BABIP .249 ERA 3.74

 

Suppan's FIP 5.75 BABIP .270 ERA 4.63

 

Looper's FIP 5.48 BABIP .285 ERA 4.26

 

Parra's FIP 4.47 BABIP .319 ERA 4.57

 

 

Aside from perhaps Bush who had a similar BABIP last season meaning he maybe pitching in a way that just makes solid contact really hard and Parra you can expect those BABIP to rise. The defense has been very, very important to this team so far

I'm not sure that I'll ever understand the BABIP stat. It will always be dificult for me to buy into a pitching stat that throws out walks and HRs. Anyways, not that Wikipedia is always truthful, but this is it's explaination of BABIP:

 

 

In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit http://www.hardballtimes....tatpages/glossary/#babip href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#babip" rel=nofollow>[1]. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. The formula for BABIP is:

where H is hits, HR is home runs, AB is at bats, K is strikeouts, and SF is sacrifice flies.

 

So, if you believe that. Then pitchers like Looper and Suppan who maybe had high BABIPs last year are due to have better BABIPs this year.

 

[Invader3K]

I hope this season thus far has taught a lot of Brewers fans not to jump off the wagon after a bad string of games.

 

I guess I would just say that while this team is bound to have some ups and downs, I see no reason they can't make the playoffs if they keep playing how they are in general. With a 3 game lead right now (yes, I know it's only mid-May) a division title seems quite tangible.

[Ennder]

FIP is pretty terrible for small samples, I'd at least use xFIP to get a better picture.

 

Unless we pull a 2005 White Sox and have every pitcher on the team have a career year at the same time we won't keep this up. However if our plate patience is for real and we've found some extra OBP and if Parra/Bush both do a bit better than people expected and if the bullpen stays solid which was considered a weak point, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that we are a 90 win team instead of the 86 win team I thought we were.

 

Our starters currently have a combined 4.00 ERA. Gallardo could be a legit sub 3.5, I could easily see Bush and Parra slightly under 4. Looper could do under 4.50, Suppan could do under 5. I can see a world where we keep up that 4 ERA this year though my money is on it going up.

[Invader3K]

One nice thing is that if we are around this same position in just another month or so, there's no reason to think Melvin won't go and get this team some help. Probably not on the level of Sabathia's acquisition, but I don't think Attanasio will want to stand pat.

[endaround]

 

So, if you believe that. Then pitchers like Looper and Suppan who maybe had high BABIPs last year are due to have better BABIPs this year.

 

 

The point with BABIP is that pitchers have little control over it and that in general it tends to revert to the league average of about .300. Neither Looper nor Suppan had high BABIP last year, they were what they were. What it tells us about this year is that we can expect those numbers to rise and we can expect the starters to give up more runs going forward than what they've done so far.

[RobDeer 45]

We all knew coming in that this team would have big swings of ups and downs. Right now we are on a big up swing. Soon to follow will be a down swing. The one thing that may help the changes from being so violent is that they are older and more experienced than years past. I sure hope they can stop losing streaks faster than they have in recent years.

[pretendastronaut]

They certainly won't be able to sustain the all out tear they're on right now, but they're playing pretty well, and when they don't play well, we're still getting the breaks, like last night. To me, the important thing is how they handle the downswing that always comes. The past two seasons it has been pretty brutal, but I do feel this team has matured quite a bit this year, so I think they'll make it through it.

 

The starting pitching can't keep up this pace all year, but I do feel good about the bullpen. Hoffman really stabilizes that whole pen, it was chaos before that. Sure Hoffman is eventually going to blow some saves, but that won't diminish the fact that the 8th and 9th are largely under control.

 

All and all, it's been a great run for the past 30ish games, that gave me confidence for the summer. Last season it felt like we beat up on the teams we needed to be able to, and largely flailed against the top teams. This season we've continued to feast on the weaker teams, and have played respectably against the upper tier that we've faced to this point.

 

I took a look at the schedule last night. August is by far the toughest month this team will have, and September could change the whole complexion of the Central.

 

The Cubs aren't what everyone thought they would be, but they've had some tough breaks and they still scare me, and I hope we can create more distance between us in the standings now, while they're still struggling some. And if they get into the running for Peavy again, ugh. I think the Cards are going to linger like they did last year, but will hopefully get pushed out of the race in September again. The wildcard looks like it's coming out of the Central again and I'm feeling confident about getting one of the two spots for the playoffs.

[Patrick425]

The point with BABIP is that pitchers have little control over it

This is how it's been explained to me in the past as well. Hence, the reason they don't include walks and HRs. However, is this saying that pitchers don't have control over someone hitting a single, double, or triple off of them? It's like the stat is saying that pitchers are responsible for walks and HR, but not that double that get's hit high off the OF wall.

[Patrick425]

I couldn't find it on JS online, but in the print version of the paper this morning ther is a graphic that states "Fast out of the blocks" and states the following....

 

Entering play Tuesday, the Brewers had a 24-14 record, the third-best mark in club history through 38 games. A look at their best starts through 38 games:

 

Year: 2007 W-L 25-13 Pct .658

2009, 24-14, .632

1990, 22-16, .579

1987, 22-16, .579

 

So, either a typo (looks like the 2nd best start, not 3rd), or they forgot to put another year in there.

[endaround]

The point with BABIP is that pitchers have little control over it

This is how it's been explained to me in the past as well. Hence, the reason they don't include walks and HRs. However, is this saying that pitchers don't have control over someone hitting a single, double, or triple off of them? It's like the stat is saying that pitchers are responsible for walks and HR, but not that double that get's hit high off the OF wall.

 

The pitcher has some control, but not really that much on what really are somewhat rare events. And part of this is selection bias, if a pitcher keeps giving up hard hit balls over 3 starts he's not going to see start #4. So when we are looking at major league talent the pitchers only have some control over slugging against. My main point however is that what has been called "good pitching" has been more good defense and good luck. You can't count on luck going forward and Weeks' injury harms the defense.

[kramnoj]

It's like the stat is saying that pitchers are responsible for walks and HR, but not that double that get's hit high off the OF wall.

 

There are exceptions to just about any stat. A player's HR total includes ones that go over the wall and inside the park home runs. The idea is that pitchers are responsible for walks and HR (the defense has very little to do with either). But once a pitcher gives up a ball in play, it doesn't matter much if the pitcher is Gallardo or Suppan, they have mostly equal chances of becoming a hit. It's a general theory that is mostly right, but it's not precise. If a pitcher is having a season with a lower BABIP, you can expect them generally to do worse the rest of the season. The reverse would be true as well.

 

Edit: Back to the topic. I don't think we should expect the Brewers to win 100 games, but I do think they are a playoff capable team. Before the season, I was one of those who thought an 85 Win season was a realistic goal. I thought that the team might get some lucky bounces and get to 88 Wins or so and if teams in the Central and East had some bad luck, the team might make it in as a WC. At this point, I'm a little more confident of a playoff spot, but it's still a long season.

[Legacy25GT]

I took a look at the schedule last night. August is by far the toughest month this team will have, and September could change the whole complexion of the Central.

 

You must mean that August is by far the easiest month. Only 2 of the 9 teams they face have winning records (Dodgers and Reds). September definitely looks the toughest with 9 games against the cards, 7 games against the baby bears, and 4 games against the Phillies.

[naivin]

The question, as has been pointed out, is if the pitching can keep it up. While what they have done thus far may not be all about the pitching, its all about the pitching.

 

They are gonna score runs (although I do have concerns about the lead off spot), and with Hoffman out there, I think the bullpen is basically solid, maybe even good. I love Bush and Looper in the middle of the rotation, and Suppan as a 5th starter is not too shabby. He'll eat up some innings and be about .500. So as it was in the beginning, is now, and ever shall be, this team's fortunes will rise and fall on the arms of Gallardo and Parra. I said it at the beginning of the season and I'll say it again because its correct, if those two combine for 25-30 wins, the Brewers will be in the playoffs, or at worst be right there in the final weekend.

[strawbossisevil]

Gallardo could legitimately have a BABIP below .300. Many of the ML´s better pitchers have done so in their primes. Look at Maddox, Glavine, Martinez etc. All of them more often than not had BABIP below .300 during their prime years. So it can be done, especially if the pitcher has the ability to control his stuff. Bush may be one of these guys as well, as he seems to be on the low side of .300 quite a bit.

 

Looking at FIP for Suppan is probably not wise due to the small sample. When you look at his first two starts, that clearly skewed his FIP by quite a bit. He is clearly better than what he showed in those two starts. That said, he´s clearly not as good as he´s been since.

 

But, yes, I think we can expect Suppan to start throwing like a guy who has an ERA in the high 4s or low 5s, and not a guy who has an ERA in the mid 2s (like it´s been since his third start).

 

Looper has been somewhat lucky to this point, but I expect that his secondary numbers will actually improve (such as his FIP). I think his true talent lies around an ERA of 4.75 or so.

 

Parra I think we can expect some improvement from as the year goes on. I´m thinking an ERA in the low 4s or even high 3s going forward.

[soloist57]

Isn't one of the reasons that we got Macha is his teams always perform BETTER in the second half? So..........maybe

[Patrick425]

kramnoj[/b]]It's like the stat is saying that pitchers are responsible for walks and HR, but not that double that get's hit high off the OF wall.

 

There are exceptions to just about any stat. A player's HR total includes ones that go over the wall and inside the park home runs. The idea is that pitchers are responsible for walks and HR (the defense has very little to do with either). But once a pitcher gives up a ball in play, it doesn't matter much if the pitcher is Gallardo or Suppan, they have mostly equal chances of becoming a hit. It's a general theory that is mostly right, but it's not precise. If a pitcher is having a season with a lower BABIP, you can expect them generally to do worse the rest of the season. The reverse would be true as well.

I'm sure all this is true, and I'm sure that people much smarter than me have studied this in depth. However, isn't a pitcher who gives up harder hit lazer beems that find the gap, less likely to have those ball fielded cleanly than a guy who's giving up weak grounders? I'm not seeing how either of these pitcher's BABIPs will regress (or rise) to the mean.

[pretendastronaut]

I took a look at the schedule last night. August is by far the toughest month this team will have, and September could change the whole complexion of the Central.

 

You must mean that August is by far the easiest month. Only 2 of the 9 teams they face have winning records (Dodgers and Reds). September definitely looks the toughest with 9 games against the cards, 7 games against the baby bears, and 4 games against the Phillies.

 

Actually, I was wrong about August, thanks for catching that. The stretch I was thinking of is mostly in July, being the 2 week run into the All-Star break, facing the Mets, Cubs, Cards, Dodgers to wrap up the first half, then opening the second half with the Reds.

And September could be a very wild month.

[JohnBriggs12]

I totally dismiss the idea that pitchers have no control over BABIP. If that was true, only high strikeout pitchers would be successful. There's guys in the Hall of Fame that didn't have great strikeout rates. Catfish Hunter never struck out 200 guys even in years when he exceeded 300 innings. Catfish wasn't lucky. It's a skill to miss bats, and it's just as much a skill to hit bats in places other than the sweet spot.

[Patrick425]

It's a skill to miss bats, and it's just as much a skill to hit bats in places other than the sweet spot.

Exactly my point. If pitchers have no control over BABIP, then shouldn't every pitcher's life time BABIP be almost exactly the same?