Meet the new Soup....same as the old Soup

[splitterpfj]

Mr Jeff Suppan...390 major league appearances, 374 major league starts. 131 Wins - 126 Losses

 

2293.2 Innings Pitched...ERA 4.63, WHIP 1.43

 

OK, got that...Soup has been in the big leagues a long time...he's been just over .500 on his career, with an ERA of 4.63, and a WHIP of 1.43.

 

2009, Jeff Suppan....ERA 4.63, WHIP 1.43...spot-on his career averages, with a 3-3 record, which is essentially spot-on as well.

 

Along the way, Soup has looked horrible at times, and Soup has looked awesome at times. This is who he is, this is who he's always been.

 

The next time you love Soup, brace yourself...and the next time you can't stand him anymore....cheer up, that's probably a good sign.

 

In the end, let's say 190 IP, 12-12, 4.63, 1.43..."The world looks just the same, and history ain't changed...." (That's The Who, by the way)

[endaround]

Suppan's FIP this year is 5.78, for his career its 4.81. This Soup is past its expiration date.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

In the end, let's say 190 IP, 12-12, 4.63, 1.43

 

If that is our fifth starter...we're in good shape (ignore the fact he's our best paid pitcher). There aren't many in MLB that will have a #5 that post league average stats like that. My biggest concern is will he break down at the end like he did last year.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It's refreshing to know that even though Soup's FIP is that high, that we actually have a good enough defense again to help him out a bit in the field. Suppan has a few lucky streaks here and there where he strands a lot of runners and he's in one of those right now. He'll be back to his usual crappiness soon in a park near you.

[joepepsi]

The starting pitching is playing out exactly as I thought it would. There is tremendous value in 3-4-5 starters who never get injured and give you 30-34 starts at quality start ERA's.

[endaround]

His BABIP right now is .270, that won't last

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well if we make the playoffs and Macha decides to insert him into the 3 man rotation due to his grittiness/knows how to win games/playoff experience/[insert buzz word here], I will be ticked.

[steve267268]

Normally, I would respond with, "However, 5th starters don't get paid $10 Million per." But if Suppan can dominate one of the teams that we are contending with on a yearly basis, the Cards, I think it is almost worth it.

 

Suppan vs. St. Louis

 

7 IP, 0 ER

7 IP, 3 ER

7 IP, 1 ER

8 IP, 1 ER

9 IP, 1 ER

 

I don't think you can put a price on that.

 

Also, he's had 1 bad game, and 1 REALLY bad game against the Cubs, but he's been very good against them as well.

[Thurston Fluff]

There is tremendous value in 3-4-5 starters who never get injured and give you 30-34 starts at quality start ERA's.

 

This is spot on. Soup is getting paid his money because of his ability to take the ball every fifth day all year long. That was what Melvin said when he signed him and that is what he delivered. In that respect Soup has earned his contract.

 

Suppan's FIP this year is 5.78, for his career its 4.81. This Soup is past its expiration date.

 

Does one stat in one quarter of a season really tell us so much more than 2293.2 innings over an entire career does? Does luck play no part in this?

 

His BABIP right now is .270, that won't last

 

Please correct me if I'm reading your comments wrong but in your FIP statement you seemed to judge him as past his prime by partially ignoring any luck factors but here you seem to be insinuating luck is a huge factor in his production. Am I missing something?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the point is that he's actually had good luck with his BABIP & his FIP is still 'run & hide the kids' horrendous

[Thurston Fluff]

That's what I thought but doesn't even FIP have to take into account small sample sizes? I know HR's, K's and BB's are almost completely controlled by the pitcher but that doesn't mean there is no luck involved at all. Especially over an 8 game period. In 8 starts one ump with a small strike zone can hurt the walk rate. Add in a start in a small park or a power hitting team or unfavorable weather and there goes the HR total. Get a patient offense or one that doesn't stike out a lot and even if he pitches great his FIP won't look that great. Then in such a small period simply having a couple bad outings, which he has every year, also skews it to look a lot worse than it would if he had the entire year to average out those couple bad outings. Small sample has the same small sample issues to some extent regardless which stat is used.

Either way it seems a bit odd to both say he has been lucky and while simultaneously not acknowledging luck may be playing a part of the equation in two separate comments on the same player at the same time.

[Ennder]

Suppan's BB/9 is still high from the bad first couple starts, I don't think FIP really tells anything more than any other stat for his future this season, it is very fickle with small samples just like ERA is. I'd say slightly worse than his career numbers are probably about right.

[joepepsi]

If I'm doing this right his FIP after the first two games was 15.59. Considering he walked or hit 10 batters in his first 7-2/3rd innings this season, plus gave up 2 homers while only striking out 2, I think it's fair to say his heightened FIP so far indicates....nothing.

[endaround]

It indicates how he pitched this year better than ERA does. And it matches what he did last year. His velocity is down from 2 years ago on his fastball and its up on his changeup. He's not the same pitcher he was 2 years ago much less 5

[strawbossisevil]

Agreed, his FIP means absolutely nothing due to the small sample and his two horrible games.