The Manny Parra thread

[splitterpfj]

Manny Parra, over his last four starts, has gone 3-1, with 24 Ks in 24 IP. I'm very happy for Manny, and I see a young pitcher who is beginning to progress at the major league level.

 

BUT

 

In those same four games, Manny has walked 14 batters over those 24 IP.

 

This team needs Manny Parra - right now. Beyond that, a quick glance through the minor league system shows most of the better pitchers still years away - this team needs Manny Parra for a while.

 

Manny has gone 6 IP in each of his last four starts - but he has not gone beyond 6 IP once this season, because his pitch count gets too high, too early. At this point, Manny's got 39 Ks in 43.1 IP, but he also has 26 BB...which is horrible.

 

I see a guy with great stuff and improving confidence...but there's no doubt, if he continues to allow this many baserunnners, the law of averages will kill him, sooner or later.

 

Is Manny a young guy, who is beginning to blossom right now...or will Manny always be a 6 inning guy, who pitches himself in and out of trouble?

 

Thoughts?

[Ennder]

He never had major control problems in the minors so you have to assume he figures it out eventually. I think it is mostly him wearing down earlier than most pitchers, probably because of all his injury issues. Pitches 76-100 he has a career .995 OPS against with 1.29 K/BB, that is just terrible and is where almost all of his problems come from.

 

He also struggles with his command in the first inning which isn't all that abnormal, a lot of pitchers have that issue.

[Invader3K]

I think Manny is a nice pitcher to have around, but looking more like a middle-bottom rotation type guy, and not a #2 type like some were hoping. I hope they're not looking at him to pitch behind Gallardo long term, I guess is what I'm saying.

[joepepsi]

Although he'll be 27 at the end of the season he should be considered a relatively young pitcher due to so many early career injuries. His major league K rate is equal to his minor league career rate. It's not unusual for an inexperienced pitcher to struggle with walks early in his major league career. Especially a lefty. I expect the walk rate to improve as the season progresses.

[Ennder]

I have no problems at all viewing as a future #2 btw. All he has to do is find a way to get through the order a 3rd time and he is a #2 right now, even without figuring that out my prediction is an ERA just south of 4 on the year until maybe hitting a wall late in the season from never going 200+ IP before.

[Tbadder]

I think that's a good point (joepepsi). He literally has me on pins and needles each time he pitches, so I have to keep telling myself he's still a young lefty who lost some time in the minors due to injury. But when he does what he does Sunday (I can't remember the exact innings) giving up walks and hits after 2 are down--it just drives me nuts. 2 outs and no one on--just get the next guy and get out of the inning. At this point he seems wholly incapable of keeping his pitch counts down. Growing pains are just that--painful.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It's an interesting debate we've had about Manny on the site. I think we all agree Manny has that solid #2 starter potential which our team really needs. He's shown that potential at times, and he's also been frustrating with some letdowns either later in the game (3rd time through the lineup or when his pitch count gets up there) or in crucial situations when an ace needs to make a pitch.

 

The disagreement seems to center on the cause of the letdowns - is it mental, physical, or is it just the maturation process of a young pitcher? I tend to think it's a little of all of them. Reading between the lines of comments from Yost, Macha and Manny himself, I think he's had some issues controlling his emotions and focusing at key moments. I've felt at times he's been mentally soft. That's my opinion and certainly not a proven fact. I also don't know if that just part of being a young pitcher and he will naturally mature over time.

 

Yesterday was very interesting. I was screaming my head off to take him out a couple batters before he finally got out of the 6th. His pitch count was over 100 and he was laboring. He then walked a guy on 4 straight. Macha's comments after the game mentioned he felt it was something Manny needed to do...to get over that hump in effect. It was like he knew he was gassed, but wanted Manny to test himself...either physically or mentally. I thought it was crazy at the time, but maybe Macha was looking farther down the road. Macha seemed to think Manny passed the test with those last two fastballs that were well located.

[brewcrewkid14]

And SoCal, in the same article you're talking about, Manny himself claims to have figured something out with those last two pitches, mechanically. It'll be interesting to see how he fares next time out after saying that.

[colbyjack]

He never had major control problems in the minors so you have to assume he figures it out eventually.

 

This is the part about Manny that stands out to me. I know there were quite a few of us several years ago that got to see Parra pitch quite often in Beloit, where he made us all believers with not only how hard he threw but how well he commanded the strike zone. In the minors he walked 2.43 batters every 9 innings of work. At the MLB level, that mark is 4.32, nearly a walk every other inning.

 

I do think bringing up the fact that he still has somewhat of a new, fresh arm given his injury troubles in the minors is a good point, as he may very well be working out the kinks still as a 26-year old pitcher. Splitter's point overall is a good one, in that Parra is not going to enjoy long-term success until he does cut down on the BBs.

 

I do think we have been spoiled by Gallardo, who had almost no troubles adjusting himself to the big-leagues.

[Ennder]

Is Manny a young guy, who is beginning to blossom right now...or will Manny always be a 6 inning guy, who pitches himself in and out of trouble?

 

To answer this part specifically, I think Manny is the blossoming guy, I think you can look at Jonathon Sanchez as more of an example of the second type of guy. I don't have much faith that Sanchez will ever figure it out. He is more of an Oliver Perez or Scott Olsen type, I don't think Manny Parra fits that mold.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

In the minors he walked 2.43 batters every 9 innings of work. At the MLB level, that mark is 4.32, nearly a walk every other inning.

 

I do think bringing up the fact that he still has somewhat of a new, fresh arm given his injury troubles in the minors is a good point, as he may very well be working out the kinks still as a 26-year old pitcher. Splitter's point overall is a good one, in that Parra is not going to enjoy long-term success until he does cut down on the BBs.

I tend to agree that his minor league BB rates are a cause for optimism. It's also almost certainly true that he won't have long-term success with a BB/9 well over 5 like he's posted so far this year. But it isn't impossible to be an excellent major league pitcher with a BB/9 around Parra's 4-ish career mark.

 

Some guys can do it by striking out a ridiculous amount of hitters. Examples include Rich Harden and Scott Kazmir (at least up until this year). I doubt Parra's going to jump up into the 10+ K/9 range, so this avenue is probably closed.

 

Others do it by combining a good amount of strikeouts with the ability to induce lots of grounders. Carlos Zambrano most years and Ubaldo Jimenez are good examples of this type. Parra has a really good shot at keeping his GB% high enough that this career path is a definite possibility. His 52% GB mark last year exactly matched his career minor league numbers, and was good for 15th best in all of MLB among pitchers with at least 100 IP. This year, it's down to 45% but has been climbing (bottom graph) all season. Basically, his recent success coincides with the stupendous amount of line drives he was getting hit with in his early starts morphing into his usual distribution of lots of grounders and a few flyballs.

 

Now, if he can both get the walk rate down to around 3-ish (a bit better than MLB average) AND keep the GB% up above 50%, I think he could be even better than Gallardo and emerge as a legitimate ace. But as long as his K rate doesn't slip, I think he'll be a darn good SP if he can pull of either one of these two tricks, or even kinda sorta pull off both of them (e.g. BB/9 down to high 3s, GB% remains around 45% or so).

[nate82]

To answer this part specifically, I think Manny is the blossoming guy, I think you can look at Jonathon Sanchez as more of an example of the second type of guy. I don't have much faith that Sanchez will ever figure it out. He is more of an Oliver Perez or Scott Olsen type, I don't think Manny Parra fits that mold.

Erik Bedard is more comparable to Manny Parra than the other two pitchers listed. Just that I don't think Parra starts to quit near the 100 pitch mark like Bedard does. At least I hope he doesn't quit when his pitch count starts to get up there.

[Invader3K]

Well, after last night's outing, I think this warrants more discussion.

 

Right now I personally have the least confidence in Parra out of our whole starting rotation. I feel more confident that Suppan will give the Brewers a chance to win than Manny will at this point. Here's his current line through 8 starts:

 

W-L 3-4, IP 43.1, ERA 4.57, WHIP 1.592, ERA+ 96.

 

Overall those numbers are not completely horrible, but he's not looking like the upper rotation guy many have predicted. He's looking like a #5 pitcher right now. I think if Melvin can get a good SP via trade, anyone who questions Manny being the one moved to the bullpen would not be looking at the facts.

[lukevan]

I think if Melvin can get a good SP via trade, anyone who questions Manny being the one moved to the bullpen would not be looking at the facts.

 

I don't know, I think it's debatable. If Manny can find his control, he will certainly be a quality SP. I don't think Melvin would look at a starting pitcher via trade unless Manny is really lost close to the AS break (read: still holding a 5+ ERA). Manny's WHIP was high last season too, and he still managed OK ERA numbers. Moving him to the bullpen would certainly stunt his development.

 

Those calling Parra the "mental midget" are probably the same that threw Weeks under the bus the last three seasons. I just don't think we need to sell him off in hopes of playoffs in 2009. It's still May.

[endaround]

Parra has still pitched better than either Suppan or Looper. Parra's FIP is 4.77, Suppan's is 6.14 (his K\BB is 1.09!), Looper's is 5.44.

[RyDogg66]

You know who else never walked anyone in AA and AAA? Ben Hendrickson. Manny needs to throw strikes on a more consistent basis. If he can do that, his stuff is way better than Hendrickson's ever was and I think he could be a good starter in the majors.

[Ennder]

Yep, Parra is our 3rd best pitcher and that is while not pitching as well as he is capable of. I'm sure people will come and say he is mentally weak and blah blah blah but nothing in the stats really supports the opinion. He has been better with RISP than without and then people will complain about him nibbling too much but that is really Kendall's fault since he doesn't go after hitters with 0-2 or 1-2 counts for any of the pitchers, everything he calls is on a corner, just Parra can't seem to hit those corners. This is the same thing as Bush a couple years ago not being able to go deep in games because he gave up a big inning late in a game a few times, people get an idea in their head and they stick to it regardless of whether or not it is true.

 

Having said all that he obviously needs to cut down on the walks to see his potential realized.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Parra right now is our worst pitcher and by far the guy who I have the least confidence in. When he pitches I cringe at every pitch and find myself cursing more during games. He has all the stuff you could ask for, just seems he has nothing between his ears to get the job done. His face always has a clueless look on it and it drives me nuts. He just walks to many guys and nibbles far to much. Then when he does decide to throw a strike it is right down the middle belt high and of course it gets crushed.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I like Parra but he really has to change the way he pitches. He pitches like Suppan or Doug Davis, always nibbling like he is afraid of contact. Those guys have to pitch that way because they have below average stuff but Parra has well above average stuff especially for a lefthander. Someone has to sit Parra down and get it into his head that he has the stuff to be great; he pitches like he has no confidence and is just hoping to get guys out.

 

I really see this as a mental situation for Parra. He needs to pitch more aggressively and challenge hitters in order to reach his vast potential. If he starts to do this he will be just fine; if he insists on pitching scared and nibbling he will never become the pitcher we all know he can become.

[Invader3K]

If Parra was pitching like Doug Davis right now, I'd be ecstatic. ERA under 4.00 and a 1.28 WHIP.

[Ennder]

I like Parra but he really has to change the way he pitches. He pitches like Suppan or Doug Davis, always nibbling like he is afraid of contact.

 

He pitches like Jason Kendall catches. Kendall does this with all of the pitchers, just Bush and Gallardo can hit those corners. That is Kendall's game plan, get ahead and sit on the corners until 3-2.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I think there is a real middle ground here on Manny. First off, he is not pitching up to his potential, but he's still our third best pitcher right now. Young guys are often inconsistent and it's part of the growing process. My guess is Manny will have plenty of good runs like his prior 3 games and ones like last night where he's throwing BP. If he doesn't wear down this year like he did last year, he could really get on track for the stretch run and maybe live up to those #2 expectations. Calls to remove him from the rotation are utterly ridiculous. However I don't think it's fair to completely dismiss the mental struggles that Manny seems to be going through and the letdowns he's had. From TH's story after last night's game: "This is the ugliest one of them all," said Parra, who has let negative emotions seep into his psyche in the past. "If there was ever a time to have amnesia it's right now. That's something I'm learning to do." When you consistently read things like this about Manny it's not like people are pulling this out of mid-air. Manny has admitted as much in the past that part of his struggles are mental. This is hardly unusual for a young athlete.

[endaround]

I like Parra but he really has to change the way he pitches. He pitches like Suppan or Doug Davis, always nibbling like he is afraid of contact.

 

He pitches like Jason Kendall catches. Kendall does this with all of the pitchers, just Bush and Gallardo can hit those corners. That is Kendall's game plan, get ahead and sit on the corners until 3-2.

 

Yes, I'm so sick of Kendall wasting pitches on high outside fastballs no one ever swings at or trying to catch thr outside corner instead of going to a pitcher's out pitch right away.

[JohnBriggs12]

Although he'll be 27 at the end of the season he should be considered a relatively young pitcher due to so many early career injuries. His major league K rate is equal to his minor league career rate. It's not unusual for an inexperienced pitcher to struggle with walks early in his major league career. Especially a lefty. I expect the walk rate to improve as the season progresses.

Sorry, that is excuse making. He's got 684 professional innings under his belt. Injuries aside, he's logged at least 73 innings every year since 2003. No matter how much he's pitched, his maturity level should be on par with pitchers in or close to their prime.

 

He is what he is, and that's an inconsistent starting pitcher who's not likely to ever be a big winner but who's got enough value that teams will keep giving him chances.

[Ennder]

Sorry, that is excuse making. He's got 684 professional innings under his belt. Injuries aside, he's logged at least 73 innings every year since 2003. No matter how much he's pitched, his maturity level should be on par with pitchers in or close to their prime.

 

Most young pitchers with 684 professional innings are in their first or second major league season unless they are complete stud prospects who tend to mostly skip the minors. Danks, Volquez etc. Parra is a young pitcher still, he is following a pretty standard career path of a 24/25 year old pitcher, he just is a little older because of injuries.