Weeks out for the season; Hurricane's a-comin'

[FVBrewerFan]

The last time Catalanatto played anything but 1B/OF/DH was 2002, the only thing he'll bring is a bench bat.

 

I really want to know what the plan is with Gamel. I'm getting the vibe that they don't want to move Hall to 2nd, and want him to be more than the righty half in a platoon. I'm attached to the idea of Gamel being up for good, but really not sure what their plan is.

I get the feeling Macha is looking at a full platoon at 2B and 3B. Counsel and Gamel vs righties and Hurricane/Casey and Hall vs lefties. Is it just me, or does the line-up seem a lot less terrifying without Weeks at the top? It hasn;t helped that Cam and Hart have cooled off at the same tiem, but it just seems like there's not a good answer for the #1 and #5 spots right now.

[jazzytrav]

I'm not really sure how this works, so is there a reason Weeks was put on the 15 day DL and not the 60 day?

[logan82]

I think it is typical to leave a guy on the 15 - day DL until you need the 40 man roster spot. I believe they did the same with Capuano last year.

[Invader3K]

Weeks' surgery reported to have gone "extremely well" according to Gord Ash.

[sargennm]

Weeks' surgery reported to have gone "extremely well" according to Gord Ash.

That's good to hear. On an extremely unrelated note, I've always wondered what it must be like to be an athlete heading into a surgery like that, knowing that your whole livelihood is on the line. I mean he went from injured to traveling to see a specialist to under the knife in three days. There's not even time to really wrap your head around what just happened to you and the road that lies ahead.

[TheCrew07]

He doesn't walk much so he needs to carry a much higher BA to keep his OBP up.

 

I meant it much like if I had said, Gamel needs to play solid defense to justify playing full time at 3B.

Yea I got that, but you're trying to measure prospects using sabermetrics and if it's not all clean and tidy with established MLB players, it's definitely not going to work with prospects. Some guys will get results that vary greatly from season to season, and I can think of maybe 4 or 5 prospects that were a finished products when they came up, and they are all going to the Hall of Fame. Prospects are going to have warts, so while Gamel needs work on his D, or Escobar needs work on his O, if they are needed to plug a hole in Milwaukee they are going to be used. The idea is as they move up their results are hopefully trending towards their potential, but scouting is still king on the prospect side and rightfully so. Trends and incremental growth are much more important for a prospect than what he's done as of today, and if we wait until Projections and MLEs finally like a player, then they've probably coming up 2 years too late.

[Postseason2006]

I've seen all I want out of Bill Hall so far now. Does he offer anything for trade value?

[bobskube]

Bill Hall is my most disliked Brewer of All-Time. No argument from me here. I will bet Hall will never bat 2nd again.

 

The Weeks injury showed up tonight. Hey, but I love the comeback and love how we are playing.

[naivin]

Its only been a few games, but those few games have done nothing to dissuade me from my initial inclination when Weeks went down, that Doug may have to go find a lead off hitter. Not sure we really even had one when Weeks was here, but we have downgraded even further since. I fear it is going to become a real problem as the season wears on.

 

That whole Bill Hall in the two spot in the order is...wow. bad.

[Invader3K]

I've seen all I want out of Bill Hall so far now. Does he offer anything for trade value?

Not with his contract, unless the Brewers would want to eat some salary (which they won't).

[Never Outhustled]

That whole Bill Hall in the two spot in the order is...wow. bad.

I will bet Hall will never bat 2nd again.

Ya, it sure is dumb batting a guy 2nd versus lefties when, since 2005, he has only has only a 390+ OBA and 900+OPS against them.

[naivin]

Ya, it sure is dumb batting a guy 2nd versus lefties when, since 2005, he has only has only a 390+ OBA and 900+OPS against them.

Where was he in the order when he did most of that damage? Using that logic, Prince Fielder should probably be in the lead off spot today.

[cwolf2012]

No, Prince should bat probably 2nd in an idealized lineup. The closest thing we have to a prototypical leadoff hitter is Counsell, since he gets on base but doesn't have a lot of power. His true skill level is below what we need, though.

 

Bill Hall should definitely hit high in the order against lefties. As soon as he starts seeing RHP, he should be 8th or not in the lineup at all. I would take Kendall over him against a RHP.

 

What spot in the lineup he's hitting from means absolutely nothing to the numbers he's generating. From your posts, I'm guessing you're thinking of protection, but in the 2 spot he would have Braun behind him. If he put up those numbers from the 6 and 7 spots, then the "protection" from Braun should make him even stronger in the 2 spot. I don't see how you can argue that his numbers against lefties aren't fantastic. I definitely don't see how you can argue that he doesn't deserve a higher spot in the lineup when facing a lefty.

[naivin]

No, Prince should bat probably 2nd in an idealized lineup. The closest thing we have to a prototypical leadoff hitter is Counsell, since he gets on base but doesn't have a lot of power....What spot in the lineup he's hitting from means absolutely nothing to the numbers he's generating.

So we should have a prototypical lead off hitter, but after that it is nothing but a function of OBP, AVG, etc.? That simply does not make any sense. If you are putting Counsell 1st because he fits the prototypical lead off role, why would you then shift gears and not put your prototypical 2 hitter 2nd? Followed by your prototypical 3rd hitter. etc.?

 

The situtaions that typically face the individual spots in the lineup need to be considered. To suggest that your spot in the order means nothing is ridiculous. It will often impact the pitches you see, the situations you end up in, and what is being asked of you.

 

If you are a manager and you bat Prince 2nd, good luck keeping your job.

[Never Outhustled]

Where was he in the order when he did most of that damage?

Not suprisingly, Halls numbers in the #2 spot, versus LHP have been outstanding in his career. His best spot career wise is #4, though that isn't a consideration.

[Never Outhustled]

The situtaions that typically face the individual spots in the lineup need to be considered. To suggest that your spot in the order means nothing is ridiculous. It will often impact the pitches you see, the situations you end up in, and what is being asked of you.

 

And who would be better at any of these things versus LHP than Hall? The Brewers don't bunt and rarely hit and run, so what exactly are we asking our # 2 hitter to do besides hit? If you say hit to RF to advance the baserunner, then look at Hall's spray charts versus LHP, as he's a machine to RF versus them.

[naivin]

Where was he in the order when he did most of that damage?

Not suprisingly, Halls numbers in the #2 spot, versus LHP have been outstanding in his career. His best spot career wise is #4, though that isn't a consideration.

In the 1000 or so AB's he's had since the 2006 season, he has had what, 25 total AB's in the #2 spot? How many of those came against LHP, maybe 10? Define outstanding. Career numbers don't tell the story where Bill hall is concerned as they are drastically inflated by 2005 and 2006. In the three season since, his OBP is what, .300?

[cwolf2012]

So we should have a prototypical lead off hitter, but after that it is nothing but a function of OBP, AVG, etc.? That simply does not make any sense. If you are putting Counsell 1st because he fits the prototypical lead off role, why would you then shift gears and not put your prototypical 2 hitter 2nd? Followed by your prototypical 3rd hitter. etc.?

 

The situtaions that typically face the individual spots in the lineup need to be considered. To suggest that your spot in the order means nothing is ridiculous. It will often impact the pitches you see, the situations you end up in, and what is being asked of you.

 

If you are a manager and you bat Prince 2nd, good luck keeping your job.

The only reason that manager would get fired is because of bad baseball traditionalism. In my mind, that person would be a revolutionary in the game.

 

The prototypical leadoff hitter carries a very high OBP, but doesn't have a lot of SLG because he will likely be getting up with no one on base. As such, his one and only job is to get on base. Counsell fits that role the best because he has always had a great AVG/OBP split, and not a lot of power. If his OBP dips below .380, we would have to look at other options, though. The odds of this happening are very good. When it does happen, we no longer have a person who gets on base well, but doesn't have excessive amounts of power that would be better utilized in the 2, 4, and 5 roles. I think you and I have VERY different ideas of what "prototypical" means.

 

Corey Hart, since he's shown a bit of plate discipline this year, is close to being a leadoff hitter, but he's shown pretty well that he's just not all that good of a hitter. I like the fact that he's actually taking walks this season. If his AVG got back up into the .280-.300 range, and he continues to walk, he would work just fine at leadoff. It would suck to waste the .230-.250 ISO he carries on situations where no one is on base, but it would be decent.

 

Here's a Bill Jame's-esque lineup that I would love the Brewers to have:

 

1) Counsell

2) Fielder

3) Hardy

4) Braun

5) Cameron

6) Gamel

7) Hart

8) Pitcher

9) Kendall

 

Now, to address your lineup spot points: I don't agree with much of that at all. A 2 hitter is not someone who moves the guy over for the 3 hitter to knock in. Time and time again sabermetrics have shown that sacrificing an out for a base is bad decision. Your 2 hitter needs to get on base and/or drive in the leadoff hitter via HR. Similarly, pitch fx numbers have also shown almost no coorelation between lineup spot and the pitches you face. I would provide a link to this, but it's been done to death, and I don't feel like I have to defend it. JJ Hardy, when he batted 7th and 2nd in 2008, faced nearly identical % of fastballs in each spot. Protection is a myth.

 

You need to construct your lineup such that you produce the maximum number of runs over the course of the game, and not with the idea of leadoff gets on base, steals 2nd, gets bunted to 3rd, and driven in from there. That scenario can only really happen once in the game (the beginning). After that point, you can have so many different situations that you need your best hitters to be getting the most plate appearances. That's why I want to put Fielder 2nd. We need to get him the most possible situations where he can drive in runs.

[naivin]

Not sure putting Prince behind Pitcher, Kendall, and Counsell gets him the most situations to drive in runs.

 

I don't care about a 2 hitter laying down a bunt necessarily, but I do want him to be more of a bat handler. He needs to have that ability with your two best hitters coming up behind him, but more so, he needs to make contact, needs to be able to move a runner, get on base and create opportunities for those 3-4 guys to drive in runs. Sorry, but thst is not Bill Hall.

 

Also, not a huge deal, but do you really want Fielder on the base paths in front of guys like Braun, Hardy and Cameron?

[cwolf2012]

If he's on base >40% of the time, yes. Similarly, Counsell has a >40% OBP this year, so he would be on base for Prince a good chunk of the time. Now, if you were to ask me if I thought that Counsell could sustain that, I would say not a chance. But if we go with small sample size, I like this.

 

With Braun having developed some plate discipline this year, I don't mind the way the lineup is constructed as of right now. At least Macha has the common sense to not try to play small ball with this team.

[southpaw121505]

Switch Braun and Fielder and I'd love that lineup.

 

Also, % of fastballs seen means nothing. There is a huge difference in a nibbling, pitching around fastball because I'm going to be careful with this guy because I know Kendall and the pitcher won't hurt me as compared to a go after someone fastball because I'm not putting a runner on for Braun. There is a difference, even though they both show up as FB.

[naivin]

So if there is limited objection to batting BH 2nd against LHP, why not platoon he and Counsell in the lead off spot? May require Hall to play 2nd. Is there any issue with that?

 

Vs. LHP:

 

Hall - 2B or 3B

Hardy - SS

Braun - LF

Prince - 1B

Cameron - CF

Hart - RF

McGehee 2B or 3B/Gamel? - 3B

Kendall - C

Pitcher

 

vs. RHP

 

Counsell - 2B

Hardy - SS

Braun - LF

Prince - 1B

Cameron - CF

Gamel - 3B

Hart - RF

Kendall - C

Pitcher

[Never Outhustled]

Career numbers don't tell the story where Bill hall is concerned as they are drastically inflated by 2005 and 2006.

Hall has not regressed in any way, shape, or form versus LHP, so his career numbers a very relative.

 

In the three season since, his OBP is what, .300?

Nope, its almost .400 versus LHP. That a huge difference. Maybe your talking about his overall numbers, but that still inaccurate, and why do we care what he did versus RHSP in an argument about where he could bat versus LHSP?

[naivin]

Nope, its almost .400 versus LHP. That a huge difference. Maybe your talking about his overall numbers, but that still inaccurate, and why do we care what he did versus RHSP in an argument about where he could bat versus LHSP?

Interesting addition of the "S" in there for the first time in the thread, and that is exactly the point. Twice last night for instance, he came up against a RHP, and twice he struck out. I'm sorry, but I just don't think you want that automatic out sitting in front of your 2 best hitters the last three innings of a game. Is PHing for your number 2 hitter really how you want to use up your bench late in a game, or would you be better served having a better all around hitter up there and have more ability to pick your spots when going to the bench?

 

And your right, that .300 OBP (overall) in the 2 hole since the 2006 season is innacurate. Its closer to .200.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is PHing for your number 2 hitter really how you want to use up your bench late in a game

 

When the PH option is Mat Gamel, absolutely. He can then stay in the game regardless of the handedness of subsequent RPs, since he hits LHP well too.

 

 

And your right, that .300 OBP (overall) in the 2 hole since the 2006 season is innacurate. Its closer to .200.

 

It seems you're almost taking enjoyment out of not discussing Bill Hall v. LHP, & instead discussing something else that no one else really seems to be addressing.