Quality Starts

[jeffy]

Isn't there a Quality+ Start? If not, there should be. 7IP/2ER. That is quality.

What if he gave up 5 "unearned" runs because of two out error followed by 3 hits? The problem with earned runs is it sometimes gives the pitcher a pass for some bad pitching just because an error occured in an inning. I think there should be some consideration given for things that happen due to errors, but "earned runs" sometimes gives too much of a break to the pitcher.

 

Why doesn't this work the other way? Using ERA logic, after 3 batters come to the plate in an inning any errors should not count against the fielder, because the pitcher should have gotten three outs and the inning should be over.

[brewerjamie15]

Gotta go with the flow here and call "quality start" a misnomer.

If a pitcher gives up a ton of walks, around 8 hits, trouble the entire time, and 5 runs (3 earnies, 2 on by walks or something) how is that "quality" pitching?

If it were 3 runs or less,and less than 4 walks ro something like that, I'd be better about the quality of a quality start.

[brewerjamie15]

Gotta go with the flow here and call "quality start" a misnomer.

If a pitcher gives up a ton of walks, around 8 hits, trouble the entire time, and 5 runs (3 earnies, 2 on by walks or something) how is that "quality" pitching?

If it were 3 runs or less,and less than 4 walks ro something like that, I'd be better about the quality of a quality start.

[ILuvDaBush]

So does the argument hinge on the ease of his pitching or the fallibility of the "Earned Run"?

[ILuvDaBush]

So does the argument hinge on the ease of his pitching or the fallibility of the "Earned Run"?

[brewerjamie15]

For me I guess perhaps both? I hadn't thought about the earned run loop holes. 2 outs: runners all over the place, an error occurs that should have ended the inning. Pitcher then can not get the third out until he allows half a dozen hits, and maybe 4 runs to score. All unearned, yet he's still eligible for a quality start if he gave up less than four earned runs but 7-8 runs scored in 6 IP?

[brewerjamie15]

For me I guess perhaps both? I hadn't thought about the earned run loop holes. 2 outs: runners all over the place, an error occurs that should have ended the inning. Pitcher then can not get the third out until he allows half a dozen hits, and maybe 4 runs to score. All unearned, yet he's still eligible for a quality start if he gave up less than four earned runs but 7-8 runs scored in 6 IP?

[dadofandrew]

If a pitcher had all quality starts, his ERA would probably be close to 3 or under. It's certainly not the be all, end all of stats, but it does help show consistency and durability.

 

Suppan has 5 of 6 QS's in a row, as he missed one by one out, and his ERA is 2.92. Many let the "worst case" bother them, but the irony there is, a guy who throws 200 innings and has a 4.50 ERA makes about $10M a year. I wish I was that guy.

[dadofandrew]

If a pitcher had all quality starts, his ERA would probably be close to 3 or under. It's certainly not the be all, end all of stats, but it does help show consistency and durability.

 

Suppan has 5 of 6 QS's in a row, as he missed one by one out, and his ERA is 2.92. Many let the "worst case" bother them, but the irony there is, a guy who throws 200 innings and has a 4.50 ERA makes about $10M a year. I wish I was that guy.

[1992casey]

Earned runs is definitely a fallible stat. The scenarios brewerjamie15 and jeffyscott describe illustrate issues involved. That's why saber people are interested in perfecting stats like FIP. By addressing how many runs would "normally" be scored given a certain number of Ks and BBs, a better picture can hopefully be painted.

 

The other issue with earned runs is that defense does affect it. If a player doesn't touch a ball, even though an average defender would have gotten to it, no error is charged. The runner reaches base due to poor defense rather than poor pitching, yet, the pitcher is charged with the earned run should he score. Of course, the competence of the official scorer comes into play, too.

 

Over large samples, however, flaws with the earned run stat will hopefully "even out" a bit, making it more accurate.

 

Adding to what Russ says, there's value to "quick and dirty" stats, provided they're not totally abused. Ease of use is nice. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Regarding the quality start stat itself, I think there might be less objection to it had it been given a different name.

[1992casey]

Earned runs is definitely a fallible stat. The scenarios brewerjamie15 and jeffyscott describe illustrate issues involved. That's why saber people are interested in perfecting stats like FIP. By addressing how many runs would "normally" be scored given a certain number of Ks and BBs, a better picture can hopefully be painted.

 

The other issue with earned runs is that defense does affect it. If a player doesn't touch a ball, even though an average defender would have gotten to it, no error is charged. The runner reaches base due to poor defense rather than poor pitching, yet, the pitcher is charged with the earned run should he score. Of course, the competence of the official scorer comes into play, too.

 

Over large samples, however, flaws with the earned run stat will hopefully "even out" a bit, making it more accurate.

 

Adding to what Russ says, there's value to "quick and dirty" stats, provided they're not totally abused. Ease of use is nice. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Regarding the quality start stat itself, I think there might be less objection to it had it been given a different name.

[areacodes]

is it 3 runs or 3 earned runs? I'm having a mind blank right now. If it's 3 runs, I can see it as a quality start. If it's 3 earned runs, I can not, since the score could be 8-1 because you gave up 5 unearned runs.

3 ER

That is wrong. It is 3 runs' date=' not 3 earned runs.

 

From baseball-statistics.com:

QUALITY START: A game started in which a pitcher lasts for six innings or more and allows three runs or less.

 

From BP:

A "quality start" is defined as one where the starting pitcher goes 6 or more innings and allows three of fewer runs.

[areacodes]

is it 3 runs or 3 earned runs? I'm having a mind blank right now. If it's 3 runs, I can see it as a quality start. If it's 3 earned runs, I can not, since the score could be 8-1 because you gave up 5 unearned runs.

3 ER

That is wrong. It is 3 runs' date=' not 3 earned runs.

 

From baseball-statistics.com:

QUALITY START: A game started in which a pitcher lasts for six innings or more and allows three runs or less.

 

From BP:

A "quality start" is defined as one where the starting pitcher goes 6 or more innings and allows three of fewer runs.

[endaround]

If a pitcher had all quality starts, his ERA would probably be close to 3 or under. It's certainly not the be all, end all of stats, but it does help show consistency and durability.

 

Suppan has 5 of 6 QS's in a row, as he missed one by one out, and his ERA is 2.92. Many let the "worst case" bother them, but the irony there is, a guy who throws 200 innings and has a 4.50 ERA makes about $10M a year. I wish I was that guy.

 

I wish Suppan was that guy

[endaround]

If a pitcher had all quality starts, his ERA would probably be close to 3 or under. It's certainly not the be all, end all of stats, but it does help show consistency and durability.

 

Suppan has 5 of 6 QS's in a row, as he missed one by one out, and his ERA is 2.92. Many let the "worst case" bother them, but the irony there is, a guy who throws 200 innings and has a 4.50 ERA makes about $10M a year. I wish I was that guy.

 

I wish Suppan was that guy

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think ER should be the only thing you look at was part of my point. The other day Burnett pitched 6 IP with like 8 H and 6 BB and gave up 1 ER. I'm not someone who calls that a good start, that is a lucky start, it is bad hitting, it is a good result, but it is not a quality start. If he pitches like that every start he will have horrible results overall. QS is kind of like looking at AVG, it is sort of useful and very easy to figure out just by looking at a box score, but it doesn't tell you all that much.

 

Something like game score is too complicated to figure out on the fly which is a big downfall but it does tell you a whole lot more about a start than QS does, it is kind of like OPS (I assume most people can't just look at a box score and figure out OPS in their head at least!). Not saying game score is perfect, just pretty readily available.

That's a bad example. Burnett isn't a typical starting pitcher. Guys in his salary range get longer leashes. The vast majority of starters aren't going to get anywhere near 6 innings having walked 8 guys. Conversely that he did implies he pitched out of several jams and that's a sign of a quality pitcher too.

 

I think the stat has value in the case of a guy who's ERA is high because of a few really bad starts. If that same guy records an average percentage of quality starts, then he's pretty much an average starter. It's not a perfect stat but no stats are perfect.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think ER should be the only thing you look at was part of my point. The other day Burnett pitched 6 IP with like 8 H and 6 BB and gave up 1 ER. I'm not someone who calls that a good start, that is a lucky start, it is bad hitting, it is a good result, but it is not a quality start. If he pitches like that every start he will have horrible results overall. QS is kind of like looking at AVG, it is sort of useful and very easy to figure out just by looking at a box score, but it doesn't tell you all that much.

 

Something like game score is too complicated to figure out on the fly which is a big downfall but it does tell you a whole lot more about a start than QS does, it is kind of like OPS (I assume most people can't just look at a box score and figure out OPS in their head at least!). Not saying game score is perfect, just pretty readily available.

That's a bad example. Burnett isn't a typical starting pitcher. Guys in his salary range get longer leashes. The vast majority of starters aren't going to get anywhere near 6 innings having walked 8 guys. Conversely that he did implies he pitched out of several jams and that's a sign of a quality pitcher too.

 

I think the stat has value in the case of a guy who's ERA is high because of a few really bad starts. If that same guy records an average percentage of quality starts, then he's pretty much an average starter. It's not a perfect stat but no stats are perfect.