When/Should A Multi-Year Contract Be Offered to Dave Bush?

[FIPS133]

I've been thinking about this over the past few days and decided to ask the guys who could provide a reasonable take on the question - when/should a multi-year contract be offered to Dave Bush?

 

According to rotoworld Bush signed a 1 year $4 million deal to avoid arbitration this year. He has one year of arbitration remaining in 2010 and is a free agent in 2011. What do you think of a 3 year contract buying out Bush's last year of arbitration and first two years of free agency? What that be appealing to Bush? He's 29 and has been durable and based on his career stats I would say a reliable #4 starter.

 

With Yo and Manny with us for the next few years this would lock up three rotation slots through 2012. Looper has an option for 2010 which is also Suppan's last year with the Crew. Signing Bush now - ahead of the all star break - would give us cost certainty to determine whether to pick up Looper's option next or pursue another pitcher via trade or pursue another free agent early in free agency.

 

Further would signing Bush limit our ability to sign some of our other arby guys?

 

Interested in all of your take on this.

[BrewCrewForever]

I was thinking this same thing actually before the season even started. I think a 3 year deal buying out that last arby year is a good idea. Bush has already had some nice MLB season's and it seems since that minor league send down last season it has all clicked for him and I believe he is now a very good #3 starter. So I would love to lock him up.

[CportBadger]

I think he needs to be locked up. He's going to keep you in games, and there isn't much coming through the system to suggest his presence on the roster is going to block a prospect.

[hauser42]

Bush needs to keep up the good work he has been doing and then at the end of the season he will be rewarded. He seems to be really have figured it out and if he keeps it up will really get rewarded for his hard work.

[JoeHova]

I'd usually prefer to sign a pitcher in the offseason just because that means less time for him to hurt himself. There's no real point to signing him now, I don't think, unless you think he'll break out between now and the end of the season. I'd rather wait to make sure he doesn't get hurt this season before trying to sign him to a multi-year deal. Also, the price would be very important.

[Invader3K]

The only problem is if he keeps pitching this well, he could be a $10 million/yr pitcher. I'm not sure if the Brewers will have it in their budget to pay a #3 type pitcher that, even though they're paying Suppan more than that now. Then again maybe it would work out just fine since Suppan won't be on the payroll after next season.

[BrewCrewForever]

Invader that is a good point, after next year Suppan is gone. Thus they would have a little extra cash to throw Bush's way. I really think after the season a 3 or even 4 year deal with Dave would be a good thing.

[JoeHova]

The only problem is if he keeps pitching this well, he could be a $10 million/yr pitcher.

But surely he knows that too. He's not likely (imo) to take a (say) 3 year, $20 million deal when he knows he'll get $7-12 million next year and then be a free agent. Also, he's already 29, buying out 3 years takes him through his age 32 season, meaning he's probably not likely to get another big contract after that. I think he'd really want a 3 year contract to be for big money (otherwise he'd probably want a longer deal), which means I'd rather just wait to make sure he stays healthy.

[joepepsi]

I thought Doug should have done it last winter--buy out the arby years plus one extra year plus an option year.

[davego]

Would 3 years and $24 million get it done?

[sheetswannabe]

Dave Bush could be had most likely for 3/18 or 3/20, based on the way the economy has affected teams lately

[kramnoj]

I don't think 3/$20M would get it done. That's pretty much the minimum that he would make if he was healthy and good. 3/$24M might work if Bush is motivated enough that he wants that security over the risk of having a career ending injury. Bush has made less than $8M in his career, afaik, so he might be interested in a deal that could give him more lifetime security. If he wants a deal closer to what he perceives his market value might be, it would probably be tough to get a deal done. I think I might go as high as 3/$27M, more than that, I think the risk is getting too large.

[clancyphile]

Dave Bush could be had most likely for 3/18 or 3/20, based on the way the economy has affected teams lately

How about 6 years, $40 million?

[Team Canada]

clancy, why would you want to sign any pitcher for 6 years?

[clancyphile]

clancy, why would you want to sign any pitcher for 6 years?

In this particular case, it would be to lock up a pitcher with no health issues to date at a reasonable salary. Dave Bush is pitching like a solid #3 starter, and those have not exactly grown on trees for the club. Past pitching prospects have had big injury issues (Mike Jones and Mark Rogers being two of the most prominent in recent years, but go back to Nick Neugebauer and J.M. Gold).

 

Dave Bush has not to date... and as such, it might be reasonable to try to lock him up now.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah I think 6 is a little long even for a durable guy like Bush. I would for sure be willing to go 4 years. And I think that might get it done, not sure on the $$ figure though.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm not excited about giving a pitcher an extension, especially one with no more ceiling for improvement. I'd concentrate on an extension for Weeks. I think we can find more Dave Bush's down the rode.

[bullox]

In this particular case, it would be to lock up a pitcher with no health issues to date

Could have said the same about Sheets up until 2004. After that...

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm not excited about giving a pitcher an extension, especially one with no more ceiling for improvement. I'd concentrate on an extension for Weeks. I think we can find more Dave Bush's down the rode.

I dunno, didn't he improve last year and so far this year? He seems better then he was in 2007 and 2006. I do agree on Weeks as well.

[Never Outhustled]

I dunno, didn't he improve last year and so far this year? He seems better then he was in 2007 and 2006. I do agree on Weeks as well.

2006 was his most valuable season. He was good 2004-5 too. Don't forget he was sent to AAA last season after a horrid start, though that was more the falt of some tinkering suggested by Mike Maddox that caused that meltdown. Bush's poor 2007 can be partly blamed on the fact that those Brewers were an extremely poor defensive team. Bush himself has been very consistent.

[ILuvDaBush]

I would think the best example of why he would take the deal is the guy he follows in the rotation. Braden Looper figured to get beaucoup bucks from a team and...that team has yet to present itself. I think Milwaukee loves Bush and Bush seems to love Milwaukee, even if he is an East Coast kind of guy. Weeks-Yo-Bush are my three top candidates for extentions right now...in that order.

[Weirdos19]

The economics in the small market will make the Brewers trade Bush this offseason, IMO. Unless Suppan can be moved.

 

To give a mid range pitcher a 4 year deal is not the way to go. If nothing else, let him go though the arby process and trade him before he's a free agent.

 

Teams with a 80 million dollar payroll can't afford to pay all their starting pitchers 7-8 million per season.

 

Yo is the one to lock up. The best thing that could happen to this team is a Yo extension through the first two years of free agency.

[rluzinski]

I think Milwaukee loves Bush and Bush seems to love Milwaukee

 

Many Brewer fans wanted to DFA the guy after 6 starts last year, so the love has been short lived. I'm always surprised by how fans want to DFA a guy one year and sign him to a long term deal the next. I think Bush has value but a long term deal for a 4.3ish type pitcher who will be 29 this year? I don't really see the point. For the right price, sure but even 3/24 makes me nervous, injury risk-wise

[endaround]

The economics in the small market will make the Brewers trade Bush this offseason, IMO. Unless Suppan can be moved.

 

To give a mid range pitcher a 4 year deal is not the way to go. If nothing else, let him go though the arby process and trade him before he's a free agent.

 

Teams with a 80 million dollar payroll can't afford to pay all their starting pitchers 7-8 million per season.

 

Yo is the one to lock up. The best thing that could happen to this team is a Yo extension through the first two years of free agency.

 

Why should Bush be traded? Unless you feel like the Brewers shoudl rebuild next season, which doesn't amke a lot of sense, you keep him and let him walk. The next season when the Brewers somehow need to find 3 pitchers is likely the year to do a rebuild.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm not excited about giving a pitcher an extension, especially one with no more ceiling for improvement. I'd concentrate on an extension for Weeks. I think we can find more Dave Bush's down the rode.

 

Is your aversion to giving pitchers an extension due to injury? If so it seems like Weeks has more issues than Bush. Especially since the wrist thing rearing it's ugly head again.