Top Notch Starters at Deadline

[trwi7]

I still wonder if we aren't going to start seeing a little bit harder push to look into Pedro

I don't think the Brewers are or should be interested in Pedro. He's just not very good anymore. A minimal upgrade at best imo. And like Melvin said, you wouldn't sign a guy you can't watch. It'd be like buying a house without looking at it first.

[Invader3K]

As trwi7 allued to, the latest from the horse's mouth (Doug Melvin) in regards to Pedro Martinez and the Brewers is that they didn't seem too impressed that he wasn't on time for his own workout, and that they didn't get a look at him. The other clubs did not seem impressed by what they saw, either...so I think fans and the radio media need to quit throwing his name out there as a possible option.

[brewcrewkid14]

Yeah, I think it'd be a bad idea too. I just don't see where there is any help, and I was speculating that if they looked at it that way today as well, we could see them make a stronger push for him. Luckily, I believe Melvin/Ash/Macha are smarter than that.

[BrewCrewForever]

If we can get Bedard without having to give up Gamel, Escobar, Rogers or Butler I would be 100% behind it with no issues.

Butler and Rogers?

 

I can think of 5 pitchers I would rather keep those those two - maybe even 10.

I'm just a big believer in Rogers. If he stays healthy I think he can still be something special, I don't want to give up on him and see some other team reap the benefits.

[twobrewers]

You only listed 7(and only 6 that fit the argument), I thought you said it was 10, and 5 of them are arguable at best.

My exact quote was "I can think of 5 pitchers I would rather keep those those two - maybe even 10." Arnett fits that classification. I know he can't be traded - but he still fits my description of "keeping". I wasn't talking specific trades - I was pointing out that Rogers and Butler aren't that valuable of prospects.

Peralta is interesting, but hasn't dominated either.

I just disagree with this statement. Peralta is having a fantastic year.

 

As for the rest of your arguements - brewjihad summed it up pretty well.

 

I'm a little confused at your philosophy-- you're looking at non-peripheral results and not the stuff and potential of those two, and then your justification for Rogers is his stuff? Peralta throws 94.

When do you consider a guys stuff?

I usually consider his stuff while contemplating how Parra and De La Rosa turned out...

[Never Outhustled]

I was pointing out that Rogers and Butler aren't that valuable of prospects.

Butler is what the prospects you listed hope to be. A MLB ready pitcher with power stuff. Not quite sure how you can justify saying he isn't much of a prospect. You don't like big, durable, hard throwers with great movement that gets lots of groundball, don't allow extra base hits, and don't give up runs? He is also getting very good at limiting walks, getting Ks, and working deep into games.

 

 

As for Rogers, pitchers that throw 98 and get people out are extremely valuable. I know his walks are high, but I think they're low in relative terms, because he hadn't pitched in almost 2 1/2 years.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah, Rogers on limited pitch counts so far this year still walks guys but he is also getting a good amount of K's and has a low ERA. It will be interesting to see how he does when he can go a bit further into a game.

[twobrewers]

He is also getting very good at limiting walks, getting Ks, and working deep into games.

Is this a new man-crush - I don't recall you driving the Butler bandwagon last year. (But then, I could be wrong)

 

Last year in 20 games at Brevard County, Butler had 4.4BB/9 and 6.9K/9. In 9 games at Brevard County this year Butler had 4.1BB/9 and 5.6K/9. I wouldn't call either of those results "very good" for a 23 and 24 year old in A+.

 

His last five starts at Huntsville and Nashville have greatly improved his periferal numbers - but I am not willing to ignore his 29 previous starts as a Milwaukee Brewers. I'm optimistic, but his track record of success is pretty limited.

 

As for Rogers, pitchers that throw 98 and get people out are extremely valuable. I know his walks are high, but I think they're low in relative terms, because he hadn't pitched in almost 2 1/2 years.

On the D-List this morning Melvin said Rogers was throwing 94/95 - not 98.

 

And while I am very cautious because of his walk rate - I might give him a pass if this was a result of failure to pitch for 2 1/2 years. Rogers has a 6.3BB/9 this year. In 2006, he had a 6.6BB/9 and a 6.4BB/9 in 2005.

 

Turnbow could throw gas too.

 

I'd love for both of them to pan out - but I think you are ignoring a lot of their warts.

[NievesNoNO]

Not sure if this name has been brought up or even if he's available but what about Jeremy Guthrie from Baltimore? I can't say I know much about his contract status or what the O's would want in return, but they have some needs on their infield with Mora aging and a hole at SS. Huff is aging and probably do for a raise soon. Would they consider Taylor Green and a few others? I guess I'm not sure how highly the O's regard Guthrie, but he's had a couple nice years against some good competition in the East.

[Never Outhustled]

On the D-List this morning Melvin said Rogers was throwing 94/95 - not 98.

 

He's pitching at 94-95, and has topped out at 98. We have numerous 1st hand reports on that. Peralta hits 94 when he throws his high heater for strikeouts. Rogers throws 94-95 when he's trying to saw guys off for groundouts. I realize Rogers has alot of work to do, but so do those A ball pitchers, and that kind of arm strength is too much to ignore.

 

Not sure if this name has been brought up or even if he's available but what about Jeremy Guthrie from Baltimore?

I like Guthrie, we'd control him for a few years, and your right, they could use Green.

[TheCrew07]

I'd be thrilled with a Guthrie type pitcher.

[Klements Bratwurst]

So who do we all have?

 

Erik Bedard

Jeremy Guthrie

Jarrod Washburn

Brad Penney

Cliff Lee

Gil Meche

John Lannon

Zach Duke

John Garland

Doug Davis

Dan Haren

 

That list isn't real pretty, or in some cases real pipe dreams in Haren and Lee. These are just the teams that are struggling right now and closer to "selling" or have an extra pitcher or two (Boston -but maybe not with the Dice-K injury). Am I missing anyone?

 

Any difference makers other than Haren and Lee?

[chansen]

Potential trades:

 

Jeremy Guthrie- Young right hander that can pitch. Started the season slow but is coming on a bit. They need an outfielder and maybe a second baseman and thid baseman as well. Pie is not anything special in left field and Mora is getting old.

 

Cliff Lee- Would have to give up a lot to get him but would be a great addition. Indians are 12 games under .500 so I would think they are in sell mode. Probably not going to happen because Melvin does not want to give up our best prospects.

 

Jarrod Washburn- Makes the most since. He is a Wisconsin guy and dealing with Jack is a plus. He also is averaging 6.4 inn per start this year.

 

Ricky Nolasco- Very good 2008 season but has struggled a lot this year. Maybe a change of scenery will get him back on track. I honestly don't know if the Marlins will part with him but he is a strikeout machine.

 

Doug Davis- Ok option that makes since. He used to play for Milwaukee and has a 3.53 era this year.

[bando1234]

I know Guthrie seems like he has only pitched a few years but he just turned 30. I think he had some arm problems at the end of the year & got hammered at the end of the year. Imo he is no better than Looper. As far as second baseman I think they have Brian Roberts tied up for a few more years. Now if we could get both of them. Im all for it. I would rather take my chances with Davis.

[Never Outhustled]

On the D-List this morning Melvin said Rogers was throwing 94/95 - not 98.

Just a quick update, this from a BC local who was at Rogers last start:

 

 

chemist wrote:

Just thought that I would let people know about the velocity that Rogers showed last night. He was sitting 97 to 99 mph. That my friends is GAS!!!!!

 

 

 

I know Guthrie seems like he has only pitched a few years but he just turned 30. I think he had some arm problems at the end of the year & got hammered at the end of the year. Imo he is no better than Looper.

Guthries ERA's in 2007 and 2008 were 3.70 and 3.63, and thats pitching in the AL east, and without getting to face Baltimore. He's significantly better than Looper, and thats nothing against Looper.

[BrewCrewWS2008]

Jeffress and Braddock were already mentioned, but who is your other 8?

Peralta, Scarpetta, Odorizzi, and Arnett are all easy choices.

 

I would also include the likes of Anundsen, Cody and Frederickson.

 

I understand your point of "high ceiling" pitchers - but many "high ceiling" pitchers never pan out. A Suppan type pitcher for $400,000 a year instead of $12,500,000 is very valuable.

 

Even when Rogers wasn't hurt - his results were mediocre. Butler completely feel off the radar until being promoted to AAA (then back down to AA), but his BB/K ratio in A+ was less than encouraging. There is certainly a push and pull between likely average MLB players and possibly great MLB players.

 

Twobrewers I got your back on this one. While I am a fan of Rogers and don't really want to trade him their are still guys in front of him. As for Butler....its amazing what a call up from A+ to AAA for a few starts will do to peoples heads. You know Bucci should just be shooting up everyones list also because he moved up to AA and pitched okay in his stint. Last year after Butler got here no one talked about him or thought much of him. He didn't put up that great of stats eighter. Check out below.

 

Braddock, Jeffress, Scapetta, are the 3 I would for sure put in front of Rogers then in front of Butler, well we got( in no order) Peralta, Odorizzi, Rogers, Cody, Periard, Fredrickson, Arnett, and Anundsen so if you take out Rogers you got 10 others in front of Butler. Yes he throws harder and is having a good season but his 5+ ERA last season just doesn't make me get down on my hands and knees and worship him.

 

Someone tried to say he is a better prospect than Anundsen because he throws harder lol wow okay. I truely did forget velocity tops everything, can't be good if your not throwing mid 90's Personally I will take Anundsen or aka a "Suppan" over Butler who may just be a McClung. At least Anundsen has been able to be very consistant through Rookie, A and A+ ball and dominate unlike Butler who has been very inconsistant. Last year was just ugly for him. I know that Anundsen struggles to hit 88 and thats fine if he has the smarts, location, and other stuff to back him up.

 

Josh Butler first 2 seasons

2007-- 9-4 3.33 ERA 127 IP 41 BB 84 K 114 H 12 HR'S 1.24 WHIP...... not to bad nice first season

2008--3-16 5.66 ERA 151 IP 65 BB 104K 156 H 14 HR'S 1.46 WHIP...... not to pretty of a second season

 

I don't dislike him or anything and want him to be good and pruduce for the Brewers but as of now I don't buy into the hype around him right now

 

Next point I'd like to make

 

I am not very high on Bedard like most of you who think he is the guy to get. Heres why:

 

1) Jack Z put most of are talent in our minor league system and wont' just give Melvin a huge discount because they are friends. He is going to ask for some of the talent he is high on that he brought to Milwaukee.

2)Next I think Bedard is a good pitcher and all but I don't think he is the difference maker we need. I am not going to unload a lot of talent for a plus pitcher, I want a great pitcher. Now if Peavy (who I am real pissed at for getting hurt right after he took off his no trade clause to milwaukee) was the guy we made a trade for awesome! He is a GREAT pitcher that still has a few years left on his contract. I don't think Bedard is worth the price tag which we will have to pay. (that is if it is for prospects)

3)Last, if it is possible I'd like a trade that would allow us to part ways with Billy Hall (doubt it) and maybe JJ Hardy or Cory Hart. We have a replacement for at least Hardy and he can bring in a pretty solid guy and i like think the cory hart to braves talk that we have in the tread.

[Never Outhustled]

2)Next I think Bedard is a good pitcher and all but I don't think he is the difference maker we need. I am not going to unload a lot of talent for a plus pitcher, I want a great pitcher. Now if Peavy (who I am real pissed at for getting hurt right after he took off his no trade clause to milwaukee) was the guy we made a trade for awesome! He is a GREAT pitcher that still has a few years left on his contract. I don't think Bedard is worth the price tag which we will have to pay. (that is if it is for prospects)

 

 

If you were to take park effects into this discussion, and you should, you'd realize Bedard is significantly better than Peavey, and he doesn't have Peavey's horrible contract.

 

 

Braddock, Jeffress, Scapetta, are the 3 I would for sure put in front of Rogers then in front of Butler, well we got( in no order) Peralta, Odorizzi, Rogers, Cody, Periard, Fredrickson, Arnett, and Anundsen so if you take out Rogers you got 10 others in front of Butler. Yes he throws harder and is having a good season but his 5+ ERA last season just doesn't make me get down on my hands and knees and worship him.

So if a pitcher with great stuff fixes his mechanics and puts up big production, you will still ignore it? The type of player a guy is at age 23 will be what he is forever?

 

 

Also, Scarpetta in the top 3? He isn't even in the discussion. If he doesn't start showing some improvement, he'll be repeating A ball.

 

 

Last year after Butler got here no one talked about him or thought much of him.

Thats bull. Butler opened last year BAs 17th ranked prospect in the Rays system. Your guy, Anundsen, has never made the Brewers top 31.

 

 

 

Someone tried to say he is a better prospect than Anundsen because he throws harder lol wow okay.

I said it, not just that he throws harder, but that he has better stuff. If you don't think stuff matters in prospectum, then your going to be gravely disappointed. There is a huge list of pitchers who had poor stats in the low minors that turned out to be diminant, including some future HOFs. Theres also a ton of pitchers that put up good stats in the low minors, but turned out to be nothing because they pedestian stuff couldn't get out quality hitters. Being married to stats is what ruined the SD Padres. stats only tells part of the story.

[TheCrew07]

I realize Rogers isn't "sexy" anymore... but seriously, if the dude will just quit walking guys he's a super prospect the next day, he's got that kind of talent. Saying Rogers and Jeffress were in the same boat wasn't a slight to either one, it was a compliment. There just aren't many pitchers with that kind of natural velocity floating around. The question becomes can they harness their stuff, and if I had to pick between the 2 players today, I'm not sure who I'd take. Both are RHP, both bring it in the upper 90s, I think Rogers is closer from a control standpoint but Jeffress doesn't have the injury issues...

 

I'm not sure what to make of Anundsen, if he's throwing in the low 90s, he's very exciting... but from the reports we've gotten and reading between the lines on what scouts have had to say about him, it's pretty clear he's not impressive to watch. I have a hard time with him, I would like him to move out of the FSL so there's actually some worthwhile media coverage which would allow us to discuss his prospectdom a bit more intelligently. Pogo saw him pitch last season and he never got over 86 on the stalker... that doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy about him. Yes there are plenty of reasons why his velocity would have been down and instead of speculating I'd much rather just get some current information on the young man.

[twobrewers]

Saying Rogers and Jeffress were in the same boat wasn't a slight to either one, it was a compliment.

I think that is a pretty fair comparision. A healthy Rogers is pretty similiar to Jeffress. (I just value Jeffress much more because he doesn't have an extensive injury history)

 

I'm just worried about both of them.

[YoungGeezy]

*If you were to take park effects into this discussion, and you should, you'd realize Bedard is significantly better than Peavey, and he doesn't have Peavey's horrible contract.

---First, out of all the GM's in the Major Leagues Jack Z is the last person I want to make a big trade with. Jack Z knows our system better than anyone else. He knows exactly what every single player is like because he brought them all in. You can't try to low ball him at all or give up less. Bedard is going to come with a big price tag just as it did for Seattle in the first place. Next, I believe (not 100 percent sure) he is a F.A. after this season. So yeah it will be nice to get 2 first round comps for him but the last thing I want to do is give up more prospects on a rental. Maybe he would resign, maybe he won't but really our depth in the minors is already not that great. He have a lot of pontential and promising guys and are deep but thats all below AA! We have Gillespie, Salome, Escobar, Cody, Iribarren in AAA then we have Green, Lucroy, Cain, and Braddock in AA as our upper level prospects. We can't just throw away players that are close to contributing every year for a rental. Peavey has has more than 1 year and is worth what he is making. He is a CY Young pitcher who is guy people are scared to faced. I know Bedard had a big 2007 with over 200 k's but beside that he is a decent k pitcher and usually has a low to mid 3.00 ERA. So I agree he is a all-star pitcher that has good stuff but to say that he is as dominating of a pitcher as Peavey....I don't know about that. That's just me though.

*So if a pitcher with great stuff fixes his mechanics and puts up big production, you will still ignore it? The type of player a guy is at age 23 will be what he is forever?

--Wow you really tried to throw words in my mouth on this one. I never said that is the type of player we will be forever. I just said I'm am not going to go beat off to his production over a half of season of work. If he continues to pitch very well then maybe, its not that I don't like the guy. I haven't seen him pitch in real life so I have to go off what I read, and the stats. I hope he becomes the next Nolan Ryan but I'm not going to act like he already is.

.

*Also, Scarpetta in the top 3? He isn't even in the discussion. If he doesn't start showing some improvement, he'll be repeating A ball.

--well for this I'll will just copy and past your own words but just change the age : So if a pitcher with great stuff fixes his mechanics and puts up big production, you will still ignore it? The type of player a guy is at age 19 will be what he is forever. Now unlike Butler I have seen Scarpetta pitch and you have to be out of your mind not to get excited over his stuff! Now yes he needs to fix some things and get better command but once he does, watch out. He easily could be one of our top 5 prospects if he puts it together. When he is on his game he's a monster. So to me yes, he is in my top 3. Behind Braddock he is my second favorite pitcher. Everyone is different and I know I am not a pro scout or in a front office and I should have clarified for you that TO ME there are other pitchers I am higher on than Butler. If your high on Bultler good for you, I hope he does great because in the end I am a brewer fan. I just like Scarpetta better.

*Thats bull. Butler opened last year BAs 17th ranked prospect in the Rays system. Your guy, Anundsen, has never made the Brewers top 31.

---If you would please find the treads from last year when everyone was raving over Butler. People said some nice things after the trade and thought okay he could be good player but after he got lite up start after start and we weren't talking about him. I never said the Rays didn't like him or talk about him and yeah he was their 17th ranked prospect but what I said on this forum no one was raving about or him or giving him any credit or love. So it not bull it's the truth. Last season we didnt talk about him besides for after the trade.

*I said it, not just that he throws harder, but that he has better stuff. If you don't think stuff matters in prospectum, then your going to be gravely disappointed. There is a huge list of pitchers who had poor stats in the low minors that turned out to be diminant, including some future HOFs. Theres also a ton of pitchers that put up good stats in the low minors, but turned out to be nothing because they pedestian stuff couldn't get out quality hitters. Being married to stats is what ruined the SD Padres. stats only tells part of the story.

 

There I actually agree with you. And like I said I live in Wisconsin where I don't get to see many of these guys beside the clip I find on line, what I read in scouting reports, and stats and I try to piece them together that way. Like I wrote before I love Scarpetta even though he has a great game followed by a horrible game and his stats reflect that but I have got to see him pitch.

I know Anundsen doesn't throw hard but like I wrote in my post that doesn't matter if you are smart out on the mond, have great command and the seconary pitches to make up for it. And if Anundsen can do that he could be a good number 4 or 5 pitcher in the major leagues.

[TooLiveBrew]

---If you would please find the treads from last year when everyone was raving over Butler please

 

Why should he have to do that? All X did was report a fact (I assume it's a fact that Butler was ranked where he said)

[YoungGeezy]

---If you would please find the treads from last year when everyone was raving over Butler please

 

Why should he have to do that? All X did was report a fact (I assume it's a fact that Butler was ranked where he said)

I said that to make a point that we on this forum really weren't talking about him last season as being this really great prospect. We weren't. He got off to a bad start and his struggles continued and no one during last season was raving about how good his stuff was when he was not pitching good. I never said that he wasn't talked about in the Ray orginization or wasn't rated high by them. Didn't say BA didn't like I just said "Last year after Butler got here no one talked about him or thought much of him" I could have made that a little more clear but we really didn't beside right after the trade. Heck he still isn't in the power 50 i believe. Thats the kind of love we gave him.

[jjfanec]

I said that to make a point that we on this forum really weren't talking about him last season as being this really great prospect. We weren't. He got off to a bad start and his struggles continued and no one during last season was raving about how good his stuff was when he was not pitching good. I never said that he wasn't talked about in the Ray orginization or wasn't rated high by them. Didn't say BA didn't like I just said "Last year after Butler got here no one talked about him or thought much of him" I could have made that a little more clear but we really didn't beside right after the trade. Heck he still isn't in the power 50 i believe. Thats the kind of love we gave him.

Josh Butler was 14th in his first Power 50 ranking. Here is the blurb about him, " Butler is a former 2nd Round pick with a high ceiling." His ranking did drop after he struggled last year. But people did think of him as a high ceiling player. Your right that the talk about him slowed after he struggled but that did not mean people did not think he had talent. Once, he started to turn it around the people who thought he had talent were obviously going to bring him back up in the discussion as a solid prospect. To say no one talked about him is just not true. When he first came people were excited about him, but were wondering why his stats did not match his stuff. Now that he is getting good results it makes sense he would get brought back up

[battlekow]

A poster on BCB who works for Stats is hearing a lot of Doug Davis rumors at the ballpark today:

I am at the park today and there is talk of Doug Davis rejoining the Brewers. I first heard the rumors Tuesday night but it now appears serious.

[nate82]

A poster on BCB who works for Stats is hearing a lot of Doug Davis rumors at the ballpark today:

I am at the park today and there is talk of Doug Davis rejoining the Brewers. I first heard the rumors Tuesday night but it now appears serious.

Please let this be completely false.