Top Notch Starters at Deadline

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm certainly no authority on the Orioles, but in terms of hitting -- as of today -- they are below-avg. or worse at 1B, SS, & 3B... and I guess I just don't see Luke Scott as a .980 OPS talent. I used baseball-reference.com & OPS+ scores for a quick-&-dirty look at their offense.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2009.shtml

[BrewerProspectus]

I'm certainly no authority on the Orioles, but in terms of hitting -- as of today -- they are below-avg. or worse at 1B, SS, & 3B... and I guess I just don't see Luke Scott as a .980 OPS talent. I used baseball-reference.com & OPS+ scores for a quick-&-dirty look at their offense.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2009.shtml

 

so b/c they're "below average" at 3 of nine positions (DH) they're a poor offense, or one that should diminish Bedard's outing? Christ, what are your thoughts on the Brewers then....? If you don't think the Orioles have good hitters, just look at what happened after Bedard left. Anyway, this is neither here nor there. He's got another start before the AS break where he'll go over 100 pitchers assuming he's not getting rocked. That should be enough to convince the Brewers to make a move for him, provided that the Brewers don't perform so poorly before then that management questions whether they have an offense to get to the playoffs in the first place.

[TheCrew]

Baltimore ranks 10th in that AL in runs scored

10th in HR's

6th in AVG

11th in SLG

 

I'd say that is below average

[sargennm]

I've been big on the Bedard idea. I think that BrewersProspecus is right in that Seattle really isn;t that much in it and they don;t want to even risk Bedard coming back on a arby deal. I think they trade him for something less than Gamel, Escobar or Lawrie. He's a lefty with awesome stuff and he's just what the Brewers need. If it happens, I would be thrilled.

 

so b/c they're "below average" at 3 of nine positions (DH) they're a poor offense, or one that should diminish Bedard's outing? Christ, what are your thoughts on the Brewers then....?

You're making some good points dude, but chill out please. TooLive is making good points of his and wasn't attacking or insulting anyone with his observation/opinion and admited that it was based on nothing more than a cursory glance at OPS.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, thanks sarge. I was only pointing out that, while Bedard certainly had a dominant (short) outing, it came against an unimpressive offense. Not sure he'd get through 4 with only 2 hits allowed against a lineup like BOS or NYY.

 

That said, he was flat-out dealing. Filthy performance, and his curveball was probably his most lethal weapon -- he was throwing his strikeout-caliber curve for strikes too, which should pretty quickly explain why he racked up so many K's.

 

 

Christ, what are your thoughts on the Brewers then....?

 

That so far, our production from C & SS has been black hole-esque. The team is average or far better at every other spot (assuming 3B is manned predominantly by McGehee/Gamel/Counsell & not Hall).

[BrewerProspectus]

Baltimore ranks 10th in that AL in runs scored

10th in HR's

6th in AVG

11th in SLG

 

I'd say that is below average

 

then we'll jut have to agree to disagree. I think if that offense is in the NL, it's probably a top 5 offense. Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Roberts, Wieters, Huff, Scott...actually, that's easy top 5 NL right there. And obviously that's all that would matter if Bedard came over. sargennm, I'm perfectly chill. Just don't think it was a fair assessment of their offense or much of a justification to minimize Bedard's performance.

[TooLiveBrew]

Agree to disagree on what? Those are facts. There is no way that lineup as of right now is top-5 in the AL, and the facts bear that out.

 

Roberts has actually had a down year so far by his own standards (OBP of only .340), and aside from him, Markakis is really the only hitter that would improve just about any team's lineup at his position. Jones has had a great first half, but his BABIP is pretty high iirc, so no way of knowing whether or not he'll be able to sustain his strong production.

 

Huff has actually been pretty bad this season, and is one of the players of whom I was critical in assessing the O's lineup. A .763 OPS at 1B in the AL is pretty bad.

[logan82]

It's one start. Even Suppan throws a shutout now and then.

[BrewerProspectus]

Agree to disagree on what? Those are facts. There is no way that lineup as of right now is top-5 in the AL, and the facts bear that out.

 

Roberts has actually had a down year so far by his own standards (OBP of only .340), and aside from him, Markakis is really the only hitter that would improve just about any team's lineup at his position. Jones has had a great first half, but his BABIP is pretty high iirc, so no way of knowing whether or not he'll be able to sustain his strong production.

 

Huff has actually been pretty bad this season, and is one of the players of whom I was critical in assessing the O's lineup. A .763 OPS at 1B in the AL is pretty bad.

 

I said top 5 NL. (go back and re-read) If that lineup is in the NL, it's a top 5 offense; there are only 3 NL teams (Colorado, Philly, LAD) ahead of them in Runs scored and only 4 ahead in OPS and OBP (add Milwaukee to that list). And that's w/ numbers going up against the best division of pitchers in baseball in the AL East (NY, Tor, Boston, Tampa). There's no doubt that offense is top 5 if it's in the NL...so I can't see how you can minimize Bedard's start against "the Orioles."

[Oldcity]

Baltimore is 13th in baseball in runs scored. They've scored more runs per game than the Brewers.

[TheCrew]

Comparing teams stats from 2 different leagues isn't really fair. O's rank in the bottom half of their league in most of the offensive stats - brewers rank near the top for most of the categories (except avg).

 

This is a pretty foolish debate though - I hope they don't make a move for Bedard, way to injury prone to count on and we've been down that road before.

[804Sox]

then we'll jut have to agree to disagree. I think if that offense is in the NL, it's probably a top 5 offense. Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Roberts, Wieters, Huff, Scott...actually, that's easy top 5 NL right there. And obviously that's all that would matter if Bedard came over. sargennm, I'm perfectly chill. Just don't think it was a fair assessment of their offense or much of a justification to minimize Bedard's performance.

Also important to note is that that offense is only going to get better with such a young, dynamic core of Jones, Markakis, Reimold, and Wieters, plus Roberts. They have some pitching on the way too with Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and maybe even Erbe on the way. Could be a scary team in a couple years

[TooLiveBrew]

There's no doubt that offense is top 5 if it's in the NL...so I can't see how you can minimize Bedard's start against "the Orioles."

 

Not sure what your problem is with my calling an unspectacular offense unspectacular. The O's offense is not one to be feared, and I don't think they will be better at season's end than all but 4 other NL teams. Now we're in 'agree to disagree' territory & there's no need to derail this thread any further. Bedard was very good, but the approach from the O's offense in a team sense just wasn't. I watched him pitch this start, so unless you did too & saw some things I missed, I guess I don't know what to say... Bedard was good but also got help from the O's.

 

 

Could be a scary team in a couple years

 

And I completely agree with that.

[BrewerProspectus]

There's no doubt that offense is top 5 if it's in the NL...so I can't see how you can minimize Bedard's start against "the Orioles."

 

Not sure what your problem is with my calling an unspectacular offense unspectacular. The O's offense is not one to be feared, and I don't think they will be better at season's end than all but 4 other NL teams. Now we're in 'agree to disagree' territory & there's no need to derail this thread any further. Bedard was very good, but the approach from the O's offense in a team sense just wasn't. I watched him pitch this start, so unless you did too & saw some things I missed, I guess I don't know what to say... Bedard was good but also got help from the O's.

 

 

Could be a scary team in a couple years

 

And I completely agree with that.

 

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4). That would suggest that if Bedard were pretty darn good against the Orioles, he'd be pretty darn good against the bottom 15 teams in those same offensive categories (which are dominated by NL clubs). So my point is not to laud the O's offense, but not to minimize Bedard's performance.

 

If you're looking for a big arm w/out having to give up Gamel or Escobar, he's the best one out there (hell, the only one). Sure he comes with some risk (injuries), but I think it's very similar to the Harden situation last year, and certainly worth doing if the Brewers have any intention of competing this year. Otherwise, they might as well sink/swim with what they've got and look to unload Hart and Hardy for a run next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4).

 

I ... watched the game. It was a nice performance against a mediocre offense that helped Bedard out too. I promise that's my last post on this wrinkle. I don't know how many times I've posted that Bedard pitched well.

[TheCrew]

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4).

Very misleading when you look at all of baseball - why do you think only 1 NL team is in the top 5 for HR's, Runs scored, SLG and AVG? The DH might just have a little something to do with that.

 

Even if we ignore that - the O's are still average in all of baseball - they only rank in the top 1/3rd in one category:

13th in runs

15th in HR's

7th in AVG

14th in SLG

[BrewerProspectus]

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4).

Very misleading when you look at all of baseball - why do you think only 1 NL team is in the top 5 for HR's, Runs scored, SLG and AVG? The DH might just have a little something to do with that.

 

Even if we ignore that - the O's are still average in all of baseball - they only rank in the top 1/3rd in one category:

13th in runs

15th in HR's

7th in AVG

14th in SLG

 

I firmly understand that Crew, but I also understand that the quality of starting pitching they face day in and day out is far superior to what the Brewers face in the NL…even the NL Central.

End of the day, this shouldn't be a discussion about the O's offense b/c Bedard isn't going to be traded b/c of his performance against the Orioles. He's been very good all year, despite his recent DL stint, of which he appears fully recovered from. He's far better than the other potential starters bandied about (Davis, Washburn etc.) and wouldn't cost nearly the price of Halladay.

I don't think the Brewers will trade for him until after they see another start, but if they do deal for him, it's not going to be at the July 31st deadline.

[TheCrew]

I don't mean to keep going back and forth with you but:

NL Central Teams ERA

Cardinals 3.77

Pirates 4.26

Cubs 3.83

Astros 4.20

Reds 4.20

 

AL East

Yankees 4.42

Red Sox 4.08

Blue Jays 4.28

Rays 4.13

 

NL Central has 2 teams in the top 5 in all of baseball.

 

Bedard is the biggest risk because of his injury history imo.

[BrewerProspectus]

I don't mean to keep going back and forth with you but:

NL Central Teams ERA

Cardinals 3.77

Pirates 4.26

Cubs 3.83

Astros 4.20

Reds 4.20

 

AL East

Yankees 4.42

Red Sox 4.08

Blue Jays 4.28

Rays 4.13

 

NL Central has 2 teams in the top 5 in all of baseball.

 

Bedard is the biggest risk because of his injury history imo.

 

Didn't your previous post answer your own criticism here? You just made a cyclical argument; of course they've got higher ERA's b/c of the lineups they're facing (DH included), but that doesn't mean their rotations are better, and it certainly doesn't mean their starting pitchers are better. Sox, Yanks, Rays and Jays all have rotations at least as good, if not better, than the the Cubs and Cards.

answer me this: would you rather have Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Ohlendorf etc. OR CC, Joba, Burnett, Pettite. Or how about Lester, Penny, Beckett etc. Cards and Cubs have very good pitching lineups--comparable to what you'd see in the AL East--but they are few and far between. I'll take the AL East starting rotation top to bottom as well as the AL East lineup top to bottom over the NL Central's rotation and lineup respectively and I don't think you'd find anyone who disagrees. again, this is getting way OT anyway.

 

Bedard's an injury risk, but as I said earlier, so was Harden. The added injury risk with Bedard is outweighed by the marginal difference a Doug Davis would make or the farm system-decimation that would result from any Halladay trade. That's why Bedard makes the most sense.

[TheCrew]

Your saying the O's are a top offense, but their numbers suffer because of the elite pitching they face. AL east pitching has been below average this year...... If your theory were true, then some of the AL east pitching would be ranked near the top, but they aren't.

 

Your argument simply doesn't add up when you look at the stats - The fact is the O's are an average (at best) offense that ranks in the bottom half of their league in most major offensive categories.

 

I really don't see the point of this whole debate anyhow....... I didn't see Bedard pitch last night, so i can't comment on the O's helping him out.

[804Sox]

If SEA decides to sell, I think the Bedard is a really nice fit for the Brewers, in that he can provide ace-level pitching when healthy, but health concerns and impending FA will not require the Brewers to part with more than one of the prize pieces of their next wave of young talent.

[BrewerProspectus]

Your saying the O's are a top offense, but their numbers suffer because of the elite pitching they face. AL east pitching has been below average this year...... If your theory were true, then some of the AL east pitching would be ranked near the top, but they aren't.

 

Your argument simply doesn't add up when you look at the stats - The fact is the O's are an average (at best) offense that ranks in the bottom half of their league in most major offensive categories.

 

I really don't see the point of this whole debate anyhow....... I didn't see Bedard pitch last night, so i can't comment on the O's helping him out.

 

I think you're confusing my point. I never said they're a top offense, I said they would be in the national league after stats pointed to them being middle of the road in the AL w/ only 3-4 NL teams ranked above them. You yourself mention that they rank in the bottom half of "their league." As Keith Law said yesterday, there's about a ten win difference between the AL and NL (and if you watched any of the Interleague games w/ the Brewers, I think that distinction is pretty obvious). Therefore, the O's have a respectable offense when you look at the entire league as well as how they would rank compared to their NL counterparts.

 

as i mentioned earlier, this whole discussion about the O's offense is irrelevant and confuses the point of the thread; the initial poster was attempting to diminish Bedard's performance by saying that it was "against the Orioles", when in fact, the Orioles have a respectable offense particularly CONSIDERING what Bedard would be going up against in the NL (most NL offenses are not as potent as the Orioles). If he can do that well against the Orioles, as the original poster attempted to argue, it would not would not follow that he wouldn't do well in the NL. So, do not view the Orioles through the prism of how they rank "in their league" but as a reflection of how Bedard would perform against similar, or less potent offenses in the NL. That's the last I'll say about that.

[TheCrew]

I think you're confusing my point. I never said they're a top offense

Post from page 17:

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4). That would suggest that if Bedard were pretty darn good against the Orioles, he'd be pretty darn good against the bottom 15 teams in those same offensive categories (which are dominated by NL clubs). So my point is not to laud the O's offense, but not to minimize Bedard's performance.

Please stop making the AL/NL comparisons - The majority of AL teams will rank ahead of NL teams because of the DH...... I don't mean to be rude, but it's downright foolish to compare team stats from the 2 leagues. The O's primary DH has 17HR's and 50 RBI's...... take that away and replace it with a pitcher hitting and they fall into the bottom portion between the 2 leagues.

 

The O's went on to put up 10 runs after Bedard left - so they obviously were swining the bats pretty well, but when it comes down to it, they are a below average team offensively. The stats back this up.

 

This has gotten way off topic though - Bedard shouldn't be an option unless he can come over for a few lower level prospects and nothing major, otherwise I'd rather pass on him. The cubs comparison is a fare one, but they still had a pretty solid staff without Harden in Z, Dempster and Lilly. The Brewers don't and if they are gonna make a move and have it pay off - the guy they trade for needs to be durable if they are going to have a shot at post season baseball.

[BrewerProspectus]

I think you're confusing my point. I never said they're a top offense

Post from page 17:

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4). That would suggest that if Bedard were pretty darn good against the Orioles, he'd be pretty darn good against the bottom 15 teams in those same offensive categories (which are dominated by NL clubs). So my point is not to laud the O's offense, but not to minimize Bedard's performance.

Please stop making the AL/NL comparisons - The majority of AL teams will rank ahead of NL teams because of the DH...... I don't mean to be rude, but it's downright foolish to compare team stats from the 2 leagues. The O's primary DH has 17HR's and 50 RBI's...... take that away and replace it with a pitcher hitting and they fall into the bottom portion between the 2 leagues.

 

The O's went on to put up 10 runs after Bedard left - so they obviously were swining the bats pretty well, but when it comes down to it, they are a below average team offensively. The stats back this up.

 

This has gotten way off topic though - Bedard shouldn't be an option unless he can come over for a few lower level prospects and nothing major, otherwise I'd rather pass on him. The cubs comparison is a fare one, but they still had a pretty solid staff without Harden in Z, Dempster and Lilly. The Brewers don't and if they are gonna make a move and have it pay off - the guy they trade for needs to be durable if they are going to have a shot at post season baseball.

 

They ARE in the top 1/2 of the league in OPS/Runs scored/OBP etc; That's a fact. AGREED that these stats may be inflated b/c of the DH, but I'm NOT the one that pulled up these stats initially; I simply pointed out to the original poster that the stats he used didn't fit his argument that they're "only the Orioles." I then responded that while they have a DH to "inflate" their offensive stats, they're undoubtedly going up against superior pitching than their NL counterparts, so you cannot just dismiss their superior stats as "DH inflated" (to which you responded w/ the non-senical comparisons of team ERA in attempting to say that the pitching staffs are as good in the NL Central has as they are in the AL East b/c of a highly suspect stat). AL East pitching >> NL pitching, so you cannot view OL offensive states solely through the prism that they're "better than they would be in the NL" just b/c they have a DH hitting instead of a pitcher. If anything's foolish in this argument, it's that ignorance.

 

So if you'd like to "take away" the DH and replace w/ a pitcher, you cannot ignore the difference in the quality of the pitching staffs (that said, your argument isn't accurate in the first place since most teams would have that DH play in the field if they didn't have a DH; so it's not a DH's bat vs. a pitcher's bat, it's a less valuable position player's bat vs. a pitcher's bat...i.e. Ortiz would be playing first and Kotsay would be on the bench if there were no DH for the Red Sox; thus, offensively-speaking, you compare Kotsay to a pitcher, NOT Ortiz to a pitcher....but as w/ most of the recent comments, that's neither here nor there...)

 

Bedard is certainly an injury risk, but he's a far better option than Doug Davis, who won't take this team to the playoffs--you can guarantee that. IF the Brewers have no interest in making the playoffs, then they should deal Hardy and others now....but that's not the current plan (that'll come this offseason)--making the playoffs is the goal, w/out giving up Escobar or Gamel. To that end, Bedard makes the most sense...despite the injury risk.

[TheCrew]

O's stats:

OBP - 16th in the league

Runs - 13th

OPS - 14th

 

That's as middle as the pack as it gets - 2 of them are in the top half, but when I look at team stats I split it into 1/3rds. Top 10 are above average, middle 10 are average and bottom 10 are below average.

 

There is no "may be inflated" - All AL teams stats benefit from the DH. Youk is normally the Red Sox's 1b, he'll also play 3rd and is right now with Lowell is on the DL - So it's not always simple as the DH just filling in for the least productive offensive player. Rather than look at the Red Sox DH spot, it might make sense to stick to the O's. Scott could play 1B or a corner OF spot - that would mean benching a productive player if they were an NL team.

 

As for AL East pitching vs NL central pitching..... The Cardinals and Cubs staff ranks higher in almost every category than any team from the East. Which category would you like to compare them in? The Reds, Pirates and Astros staff are actually pretty solid with a lot of young quality pitching in there.

 

Sure Bedard is a better option than Davis - but he'll cost elite prospects, Davis shouldn't. He's actually having a heck of a season.......