Top Notch Starters at Deadline

[YoungGeezy]

A poster on BCB who works for Stats is hearing a lot of Doug Davis rumors at the ballpark today:

I am at the park today and there is talk of Doug Davis rejoining the Brewers. I first heard the rumors Tuesday night but it now appears serious.

Please let this be completely false.

Agreed, I mean if it doesn't take much to get him then maybe. I'd take him over Burns or McClung but I wouldn't give up that much for him. DM has always liked Davis from when they where in Texas and when he brought him here the first time so it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.

 

And jjfanec thanks for posting that because I know I haven't seen him on their lately and wasn't sure Toby ever put him on. And I agree with you, I liked the trade for him and liked what I read about him but last year was just ugly for him so I moved him way down on my list for top pitchers like most did. The thing with me is I didn't follow him that year he was with the Rays and after he was a 2nd round pick so the only sample size I had of him was last year. So I just want to see him continue to pitch great before i make my decison on him.

[battlekow]

Davis is still owed almost $5M this year. If it's anything more than a straight purchase, it's a rip-off. Davis's ERA is a mirage.

[brewdude15]

I thought this thread was called Top Notch Starters at Deadline, not Mediocre Starters Who Look Good But Really Aren't That Great at Deadline.

[nate82]

Gil Meche could be a possibility but financially I'm not sure the Brewers should make a trade for him. Meche will have a salary of $12m for the next two seasons '10 and '11. Meche also has a no trade clause and he would have to waive that to come to the Brewers. Meche might be another pitcher the Brewers could get.

[BrewCrewRising]

Meche has managed to get 200+ innings for the last two years, and came close three years ago. His WHIP scares me, but it's not as bad as Suppan's. He has a lot more K's than Suppan too.

 

So, in one sense, that's the kind of guy DM would go for: Innings eater, gritty guy who gets men on base, but get out of a lot of jams.

 

He would not be my first choice of course, but given the market, I wonder if he isn't one of the better options in terms of getting something without giving up the farm. The Royals might go for it just for the salary releif. I'd love to get Cliff Lee, but how much would that cost us? I think we all agree that it would be quite a bit (Escobar).

 

That we'd have him the next two seasons means we have another overpriced mediocre pitcher for when Suppan leaves. If we got him, and he proved to be decent, I wonder if Melvin would then try to move Suppan by getting whatever, and eating a bit of salary.

[TooLiveBrew]

So, in one sense, that's the kind of guy DM would go for: Innings eater, gritty guy who gets men on base, but get out of a lot of jams.

 

The things that worries me about this, is that LOB% aka 'getting out of jams' isn't all that common as a talent (as opposed to just being lucky). I would much rather see the Brewers 'spend more to get more'

[Invader3K]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/49286852.html

 

Nice article from Anthony Witrado, including some quotes from Mark Attanasio. While not specifically about a pitcher, I thought it tied in with what is being discussed here.

 

"And we have confidence they can. We wouldn't be looking ahead (to a trade) if we didn't think this was a playoff-caliber team."

 

During the offseason, the Brewers were mindful of not going overboard with their spending to keep the payroll relatively conservative, giving the organization some wiggle room to add a player around this time.

 

Attanasio said that still held true, within reason, of course.

 

"Within limits, the payroll can expand depending on the caliber of the player involved," Attanasio said. "With our fan support, we're on the upper end of what I thought we could do here.

 

"We're actively looking at some guys, but one of the (byproducts) of the wild-card system is there's a lot of teams still in contention."

[BrewCrewForever]

I wouldn't mind Meche. Like someone else said his WHIP is a little scary but he strikes guys out and is a solid stater who eats innings.

[jvrocksaz]

Any thoughts on Wandy Rodriguez? Would Houston let him go if they insist on keeping Oswalt? I believe he has 2 arby years left after making 2.6M this season... His numbers have improved year by year or so it appears to me...

[nate82]

Any thoughts on Wandy Rodriguez? Would Houston let him go if they insist on keeping Oswalt? I believe he has 2 arby years left after making 2.6M this season... His numbers have improved year by year or so it appears to me...

Not a chance the Astros would trade Wandy Rodriguez. It doesn't really matter if they insist on keeping Oswalt. Rodriguez is a cheap youngish option as a SP and I don't see them trading that away. It would take Escobar + a lot to get Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros. I could see the Astros dealing Tejada, Lee, and Ivan Rodriguez though if they are completely out of it by the All Star break. I don't believe the Astros will trade either Oswalt or Berkman ever that would cause too much of a fan backlash. The Astros are married to Berkman and Oswalt and there is no divorce option available.

[endaround]

Who would take Lee? But even then Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee all have full no trade clauses. Tejeda might go somewhere. And Valverde probably should be moved but figuring out the Astros' machinations is tough. Moore might think Valverde is another lifetime Astro.

[nate82]

Who would take Lee? But even then Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee all have full no trade clauses. Tejeda might go somewhere. And Valverde probably should be moved but figuring out the Astros' machinations is tough. Moore might think Valverde is another lifetime Astro.

An AL team would take Lee. Lee has a ton of value as a DH and I could see a couple teams in the AL looking into Lee as a possibility. The Rangers (oddly enough) and the Blue Jays and in the NL I could see the Mets making a run at Lee if Beltran's injury is more serious than originally thought also if Delgado is not able to come back fully. These are the only ones I could think of right now that could use Lee as either a DH or 1B/OF.

[endaround]

Lee's contract is huge though. He's owed $18.5m for the next 3 years. Adam Dunn is out there for half the price and half the time.

[nate82]

Lee's contract is huge though. He's owed $18.5m for the next 3 years. Adam Dunn is out there for half the price and half the time.

I don't think that really matters for the Mets though especially with Delgado coming off the books after this season and Sheffield also coming off and Wagner could be bought out for $1M. The Blue Jays and the Rangers (to a lesser extent) would be more leery to trade for Lee but still Lee would be playing DH there and he wouldn't cost any more than any other DH on the market. The Blue Jays GM doesn't really like Dunn so I don't see that as a possibility and I doubt the Nationals would trade Dunn to the Mets.

[lcbj68c]

Since this thread is as somebody else stated, "Top Notch Starters", I'll propose a trade I'd like to see happen.

 

Felix Hernandez (Sea) and Josh Fields for Escobar, Corey Hart, & Manny Parra

 

IIRC, Hernandez had his first year of arbitration this past season and is earning around 3M. So the Brewers could control him for 2010 and 2011 and of course have a chance of resigning him and buying out those last two arby years. If not, expect jumps in salary to around $6-8M, which isn't bad for somebody who could be considered an Ace or Co-Ace with Yovani for 2.5 more years at a minimum.

 

Hardy or Escobar immediately steps in at SS in replace of Jose Lopez (.255, .283, .420) or Betancourt (.250, .278, .330) when he comes back from injury and Cedeno (.117, .202, .213) can go back to sub status.

 

Corey Hart would undoubtedly start over Guiterrez or Balentien.

 

You obviously know what you get in Felix Hernandez. Joshua Fields is doing very well at AA, though he was a 1st round pick, so that might be asking a bunch in return. Fields is being used as a closer, has a 3.89 ERA .115 WHIP and nearly 12K/9Inn.

 

That greatly solidifies the rotation and should the Brewers make the playoffs, helps guarantee we don't see Games #2 & #3 of a NLDS started by guys named Suppan and Looper. Does it create a hole at RF, sure. But Gamel could go to RF and Heether come up. Give Gerut or Catalanatto more playing time?

 

Seattle is not out of it by any means. They are in 3rd place, but only 3 games back at 38-36. I think both Texas and LAA are more talented in terms of this season and a ton of teams they would have to jump for the Wild Card (The whole AL East minus Baltimore and 2nd place AL West). I think this trade definitely helps them in terms of talent to compete for the division in 2010.

 

I'll probably get slammed for this idea, but I was bored and think something near this is doable. Perhaps overpaying a bit, but I think we need to at this point. If we wait until the deadline, another 30 games, this team could go (10-20) over that span with the rotation the way it is now and have a very slim chance of recovery.

[Oldcity]

Rodriguez is a cheap youngish option as a SP and I don't see them trading that away.

I'm only pointing this out because I was also under the impression that Wandy was "youngish" until I saw this, but he's actually 30 years old. I'd have guessed like 27

[PeaveyFury]

I think the huge debate behind the scenes right now is going to be how long they're willing to wait to make a move. If they want to avoid a few more Burns/McClung/whomever starts, they'll make a move soon, and probably be forced to look at solid if unspectacular guys like Davis. If they're willing to wait a few weeks and see where we're at in the race nearing the deadline and hope that more teams go into sell mode as they fall from the race, and also hope that some of the higher-tier guys with injuries like Bedard return to action by then as well.

 

Of course there's a huge risk to each move- you'd hate to trade for someone now and give up prospects only to fall out of the race in the next 4-6 weeks (though we could turn around and flip whoever we traded for if we're out before the deadline, I guess), but the longer you wait, the more likely it is that we WILL fall out of the race if the pitching doesn't hold up.

 

Ideally for me, it's wait two or so weeks and hope that Seattle falls out of the race and Bedard comes off the DL healthy, then go from there.

[endaround]

Since this thread is as somebody else stated, "Top Notch Starters", I'll propose a trade I'd like to see happen.

 

Felix Hernandez (Sea) and Josh Fields for Escobar, Corey Hart, & Manny Parra

 

IIRC, Hernandez had his first year of arbitration this past season and is earning around 3M. So the Brewers could control him for 2010 and 2011 and of course have a chance of resigning him and buying out those last two arby years. If not, expect jumps in salary to around $6-8M, which isn't bad for somebody who could be considered an Ace or Co-Ace with Yovani for 2.5 more years at a minimum.

 

Hardy or Escobar immediately steps in at SS in replace of Jose Lopez (.255, .283, .420) or Betancourt (.250, .278, .330) when he comes back from injury and Cedeno (.117, .202, .213) can go back to sub status.

 

Corey Hart would undoubtedly start over Guiterrez or Balentien.

 

You obviously know what you get in Felix Hernandez. Joshua Fields is doing very well at AA, though he was a 1st round pick, so that might be asking a bunch in return. Fields is being used as a closer, has a 3.89 ERA .115 WHIP and nearly 12K/9Inn.

 

That greatly solidifies the rotation and should the Brewers make the playoffs, helps guarantee we don't see Games #2 & #3 of a NLDS started by guys named Suppan and Looper. Does it create a hole at RF, sure. But Gamel could go to RF and Heether come up. Give Gerut or Catalanatto more playing time?

 

Seattle is not out of it by any means. They are in 3rd place, but only 3 games back at 38-36. I think both Texas and LAA are more talented in terms of this season and a ton of teams they would have to jump for the Wild Card (The whole AL East minus Baltimore and 2nd place AL West). I think this trade definitely helps them in terms of talent to compete for the division in 2010.

 

I'll probably get slammed for this idea, but I was bored and think something near this is doable. Perhaps overpaying a bit, but I think we need to at this point. If we wait until the deadline, another 30 games, this team could go (10-20) over that span with the rotation the way it is now and have a very slim chance of recovery.

 

Seattle is not trading Hernandez. They have enough chips (Washburn, Bedard, Beltre, Branyan) to get prospects without trading a cheap young pitcher. In addition in no way is that enough to get Hernandez much less Hernandez and Fields.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'll probably get slammed for this idea, but I was bored and think something near this is doable. Perhaps overpaying a bit, but I think we need to at this point. If we wait until the deadline, another 30 games, this team could go (10-20) over that span with the rotation the way it is now and have a very slim chance of recovery.

 

The proposed trade (in terms of value) isn't a bad one, but living in the Pac NW I can tell you that endaround hit the nail on the head. Felix is the present & future of the Mariners... though Beltre's injury (out 6-8 weeks for surgery to remove a large bone spur from his shoulder) means you can probably cross him off that list.

 

One point I want to make is that I think basing personnel decisions on what 'could' happen (like going 10-20) is the wrong way to go. Sure, they could lose 20 or even more games in a 30-game stretch. But I also think that a .333 winning % is so pessimistic that it isn't a reliable guesstimate to use. As this team showed last night, the offense is good enough to pick up the team in even the sloppiest of games.

 

I think Peavey's post #241 is an excellent one, and I was actually having the same 'debate' with myself after the game last night. To play my own card with his sentence at the end, I hope TOR falls out of contention in another couple of weeks & the Brewers pursue Roy Halladay.

[lcbj68c]

Nearly $16M in 2009, and approx $8M remaining for this season for Halladay. I like the talent that would come over, but not as cheap an Ace has Hernandez, though I understand now he's the face of that franchise and seemingly unmovable. I dont know I'd want Halladay's contract. I'm looking for a budding ace that can be controlled for a couple years at a medium salary.

[yoshii8]

I'm looking for a budding ace that can be controlled for a couple years at a medium salary.

So is every other team, I don't see why a team would trade a player like this?

[TooLiveBrew]

Not mid-season, anyway. I think the kind of pitcher lcbj68c is after can be obtained in the off-season (thinking a Hardy trade here)

[bklynbrewcrew]

Is there any way that Atlanta would trade Vazquez for Hart. Vazquez is exactly what we need; he is a legit 1/2 that pitches tons of innings and has been durable his whole career. They desperately need more offense and have been linked to hart in the past.

[The Truth]

With Suppan pitching so poorly, Bush hurt, who knows what you've got in Parra, and questionable starters in Burns and McClung, we are left with Gallardo and a solid #4 pitcher in Looper (who sometimes pitches like a #5). Melvin and Ash etc have to be wondering if one great pitcher would even be enough to make the Brewers contenders.

 

Do you really think adding a Bedard is enough to make the Brewers pennant contenders? There are alot of "if's" attached to that: if Parra can make it back and pitch to his potential, if Suppan can start pitching to his career norms (its becoming reasonable to doubt that he will), if Bush will come back strong (I find that probable). If McGehee and Counsel can stay healthy (thats a maybe), if Hart/Hardy/Hall can return to career norms... alot of things have to fall into place ... with all that on the line Melvin and Ash are probably hesitant to give up much for a strong arm a "top notch starter" at the deadline.

 

I think its more likely they bring in a Doug Davis and hope for the best and gear up for a serious run in 2010 with Hardy traded for pitching in the off-season

[jjfanec]

I'm looking for a budding ace that can be controlled for a couple years at a medium salary.

Who was the last budding ace to be traded? I just don't think trades like this happen very often and if they do you have to give up a ton. What would have we wanted for Gallardo his rookie year? We would have asked for the moon in return. There were rumors the Giants were asking for Fielder and Hardy for Matt Cain!