Who's your pick?

[colbyjack]

I'm with you X. I really like both of those guys I wrote about (Colon and Choice) and would select either one should they make it that far. Choice, like Colon, is making some noise as a top-10 overall pick.

 

They're not on my favorites list because at this point in time my guess is that neither one does fall, but you never know.

[nate82]

Colby you think it is possible for Cox to slip past the top 10 and land in the Brewers lap kind of like Lawrie did? I like Cox better as a 2B than a 3B or an OF though I think defensively he would be better at 2B than at 3B or OF. I think his bat could play at 3B or a corner OF spot though.

[brewerguy71]

Ugh!

 

The last thing the Brewers need in their farm system is another bat. They need pitching plain and simple. And not a safe pick like Workman, they need an impact arm. There is not one impact arm in the entire farm system. They have one questionable one in Odirizzi and thats it.

 

If one of the big HS arms falls to them, for WHATEVER reason, thats the pick they need to make, whether it be Covey, Cole or even Whitson.

[TooLiveBrew]

There is not one impact arm in the entire farm system.

 

Aside from Jeffress, of course. Peralta & Rivas aren't far off either imo

[logan82]

We really don't have much in the way of impact bats either. Lots of guys who should make a contribution but few impact bats.

[JoeHova]

We really don't have much in the way of impact bats either. Lots of guys who should make a contribution but few impact bats.

This is what I was just about to say. Who is the next Prince or Braun? Or even the next Hart or Weeks? I still have some hope for Salome (and Lucroy, to a lesser extent). Lawrie is doing fine in Huntsville but he hasn't dominated a level like the other guys had by the time they reached AA. Other than those 3 guys, none of whom are sure things, who is there? Cain? Gindl? Green? I don't know that any of those guys are good bets to ever be MLB starters. The system as a whole seems pretty weak to me because of the numerous blown (or at least unimpressive) high picks in the past 2 drafts. It seems to me that the franchise could use an infusion of talented players regardless of whether they are pitchers or position players.

[brewmann04]

I want pitching this draft and alot we need arms to get up to Milwaukee

[nate82]

The last thing the Brewers need in their farm system is another bat. They need pitching plain and simple. And not a safe pick like Workman, they need an impact arm. There is not one impact arm in the entire farm system. They have one questionable one in Odirizzi and thats it.

I agree the Brewers need an impact pitcher but after Lawrie the talent pool gets a little dry with Kentrail Davis really only being a big possible impact bat in the farm system. Others like Cain, Schafer, and Green maybe everyday players but they are anything but an impact bat. These players may as well be platoon players or just bench players. Then you have the big question marks behind Salome and Gamel. This is not a knock against either of them but it is rather hard to figure out where they fit into all of this also Weeks is getting older and he is nearing free agency. You can't predict if Weeks will stay or not in Milwaukee and if he leaves you have Lawrie as the best 2B prospect in terms of a prospect and I am not sure he is even cut out to be a 2B and I'm not sure he was the work ethic to work at being a good 2B like Weeks has done. With all the knocks you can put on Weeks and his bad defense he at least goes out there and tries to learn the position unlike Lawrie who looks as though he just wants to hit and defense will come later and that is why I see Lawrie as a 1B/3B or a corner outfielder and not a 2B. If Cox is available at the Brewers pick they should pick him unless there is someone better in terms of pitching that is available.

 

You can't draft based on need it usually doesn't work out all that well. You draft the best player available even if you have an overabundance of that player. If MLB allowed teams to trade draft picks I would be all for the Brewers trading down from their pick but since MLB doesn't allow that the best available player strategy should be the one that a team like the Brewers should follow.

[Boisebrewer]

I think we really need to go with an arm with our first pick since it much harder to get great arms in later rounds. We desparately need arms and if a bunch of the pitchers we have now turn out to be the real thing, I believe we can probably get more trading a pitcher who will be cheap for years than a bat under similar circumstances. I agree though that the bats are getting thin also, I just think we need pitching first. Admittedly I am more of a pitching/defense wins championships guy so I may be a bit biased.

[TheCrew07]

I think we stick with BPA and add as much impact talent as possible.

[YoungGeezy]

I'm pretty high on HS 3B Nick Castellanos

[TooLiveBrew]

I think we stick with BPA and add as much impact talent as possible.

I think you mean IMPACT TALENT http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I agree, BPA is almost always the best way to go, no matter the sport. I think it's even more prudent in MLB.

[Invader3K]

I think you mean IMPACT TALENT http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I agree, BPA is almost always the best way to go, no matter the sport. I think it's even more prudent in MLB.

I agree with the concept in theory. Isn't BPA a lot more abstract in baseball compared to the NBA or NFL draft, though? Especially after you get through the first dozen or so players?

[1e Corbeau]

I'm fairly confident that Seid will go BPA, but of course the question then becomes *how* the rate BPA, right? ;-)

 

My personal preference, which is admittedly amateurish and ill-informed, would be to avoid pitchers with big projectable FBs and a plus second pitch who have substantial concern about command and repeating mechanics. I know all of the available players will have some concerns at #14 (or even at #2), but I'm too scared off by recent 1st round pitchers (Rogers, Jeffress, Arnett--and disasters like Fredrickson in 1S) who fit my above, inexact category.

 

That said, I'd be excited about any of the following:

 

Pitchers: Whitson, Allie*, Wimmers. I would love it if someone like Sale fell, but I don't see it happening. In my dreamworld, Taillon somehow falls due to bonus demands...

 

Bats: Choice, Sale, or Castellanos. Maybe Colon, but that seems to be more of a LaPorta-type pick for immediate return, and I doubt that the FO thinks we need immediate return at SS or 2B with Escobar, Weeks/Lawrie likely to plug those spots for awhile.

 

*yeah, I know... he seems to be exactly what I'm cautious of above, but he just fits the Brewer mold: Midwest HS, athletic, big FB, high upside, and Piliere at Fanhouse says we have interest, though I don't really trust him.

 

Regardless of what happens, let's hope the Brewers continue their record of relatively quick signings so whomever they take gets some action this season. Moreover, I hope they spend in the late rounds like last year--catch some of those players that fall due to perceived strong commits!

[colbyjack]

Seid has a lengthy history with Colon being the former West Coast Crosschecker and even one of the team's regional scouts in Southern California. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, but he more than anyone knows Colon's ability and makeup as well as anyone.

 

Pilliere has some pretty good connections, so I would believe there is some strong interest, and the Brewers have been linked to Colon elsewhere.

 

I agree that BPA is the way to go. While the pitching need seems obvious and glaring, as others have noted, there is a lack of impact players on both sides of the ball in the lower levels.

[TheCrew07]

I think we stick with BPA and add as much impact talent as possible.

I think you mean IMPACT TALENT http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I agree, BPA is almost always the best way to go, no matter the sport. I think it's even more prudent in MLB.

Ha TLB! I want to clarify my opinion a bit. I think pitching is as important as anyone around, but I don't think you draft an arm just for the sake of drafting an arm if a better position player is on the board. I'd rather the organization not reach (Frederickson) just to select a position of need if you still have an impact bat like a Lawrie on the board.

 

As far as drafting arms goes... I think with the Brewers drafting outside of the top 10 (though unfortunately we might be back in that position next year) they are always going to have to do their due dilligence with HS arms taking upside over polish to try and get impact talent to MLB. Most of the best College arms are going to be gone before the Brewers even have a chance to select them, so our focus is going to have to be on the HS pitching if we want that impact talent. If we slide back into the top 10 (I sincerely hope not) obviously the options will be much different. Inman was a good lesson for me, not that he was a 1st round pick but he's the kind of picther I have mind when I think about a polished HS pitcher. He had that averagish velocity without much projection left, the funky delivery that hides the ball well, but he located very well for a HS pitcher. Even though he's never had a significant injury he's still toiling away in AAA, progressing normally he would have only been a year behind Yo to MLB. He dominated the lower levels of the minors with his command, I was sure he was going to be a stud, but as the hitters have gotten better, he's gotten worse. I'm not saying polish is a bad thing, but I would make that my secondary concern with arm/stuff being the primary.

 

The other reason I like BPA is that we also get a good mix of the pitchability guys into the system later in the draft as well, for example I think Fiers was excellent value for where he was drafted. Just like some of the high ceiling arms are going to fail, some of the pitchability guys are going to over achieve and become valuable pieces at MLB.

 

 

[LouisEly]

Good call on Colon - he's the guy I was thinking about as far as bats, and if he were the pick, hopefully he can stay at SS. I know that Escobar is progressing, however I'm still not sold on his bat and if Gennett truly is a 2B then Prince is the only other legit SS prospect they have. So I would not be terribly upset if they go SS in the first or second round.

 

What I want to know is who is the next... Roy Oswalt. A guy who is overlooked a bit because of his size which causes him to slip into the middle rounds (unfortunately the don't have the DFE option now like they had when Oswalt was drafted). Oswalt was a 23rd round pick, so you don't have to draft aces in the first round. Unfortunately it seems like many on this board aren't willing to wait the five years it took for a high school/juco arm like Oswalt to develop, because it looks like that same path is paying dividends with Odorizzi.

 

Another interesting thing about Oswalt - he pitched 80 innings in 1997 and 1998 (looks like 1998 was cut short due to injury), but then jumped to 151 the next year and 175 the year after and only had one season shortened by injury (2003 - 127 innings). A big jump in innings from one year to the next didn't cause him any harm. Maybe he's the exception, maybe if a guy is destined to get hurt he will no matter how you handle him. Who knows.

[Tedaldtada]

Colby, what's your take on Matt Harvey? Could he be a guy, similar to Kentrail Davis last year, that Seid snags despite his falling stock? I know he is rising slightly since the year started, so it's not quite the same situation. His stuff is pretty unquestioned at this point I would think (i.e. it's pretty great).

 

I would love a Cox/Machado/J. Sale type if they end up falling slightly. Choice is also very intriguing in a poor-man's Mike Trout sort of way. The hitter I am starting to zero in on is Austin Wilson. he is by far the closest thing to a Heyward/Mike Stanton guy in this draft. It will take a lot to sign him away from Stanford, but at 14, I'm pretty sure he would sign. Colon/Castellanos/Grandal would make a lot of sense at 14 too, I guess. The ceiling on those guys is not what I'm looking for though.

 

No H.S. pitcher really excites me after Taillon. Whitson/Cole/Covey/Sanchez/etc. are all very projectable, no doubt, so it's not like I would be all that upset. I'd rather take one of Chris Sale/Ranaudo/McGuire/Harvey. That reminds me, if you were the Brewers, would you even consider drafting Ranaudo in the first? That's another Kentrail Davis situation. The guy was a consensus top 3 just a few short months ago. Now I have seen him falling all the way out of the first round.

 

Top 5 Hitters you reasonably expect to be there at 14:

 

1. Cox (would have to slip a bit)

2. Wilson

3. Josh Sale

4. Choice

5. Colon

 

Top 5 Pitchers:

 

1. Chris Sale (would have to slip a bit)

2. McGuire

3. Harvey

4. Ranaudo

5. Whitson

 

Taillon, if he falls, has to be the pick though. Pay him. Just do it, and forget about it. He is Jeffress with polish and poise. Jenkins/Allie/Workman/Covey just missed my top 5.

 

If guys go about where they should, I would take Austin Wilson or Matt Harvey with Josh Sale, Chris Sale, Cox, and Ranaudo as my backup plan(s). Tyrell Jenkins is my super ultra sleeper pick. I know, he is a first round arm, so it's not that much of sleeper http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif. I've been hearing the Stetson Allie buzz too. I find it incredibly hard to believe anyone can hit low 90's with a slider. So Colby, should Allie be a SP or a hitter at the next level? Does he have a track record for success?

[brewerguy71]

I would have to say that of your list of 10 players, Colon is the only realistic choice.

 

Cox, both Sale's, McGuire and Choice will be long gone by the time the Brewers pick. And I wouldnt take Chris Sale with a 10 foot pole given the fact that the Brewers will mess with his delivery and cause injury, if he doesnt injure it on his own due to delivery concerns. Wilson has a firm committment to Stanford and the Brewers arent the team that will pull him away from that. Ranaudo and Harvey are both injury risks and if you take Whitson, why not take a higher upside arm like Cole or Cowart first?

 

I dont mind them taking Colon, but he may not be around at their pick, and they really need pitching more than anything. AJ Cole is my pick.

[trwi7]

 

•I got an email yesterday saying Brewer scouts were "all over" Florida Gulf Coast University pitcher Chris Sale (not to be confused with Washington HS OF Josh Sale), and directing my attention to this scouting report. Here's a more in-depth report from Project Prospect.

Link

A couple of questions for you, colby.

1. Have you heard anything about the Brewers being linked to Sale?

2. Do you think there's any chance he drops to 14? I guess I just don't see it, but I figured you would know more than me. I know his mechanics aren't the greatest, but you have to think if a lefty who throws in the low 90s with a good changeup and the kind of results Sale has had that the Brewers would take him and more likely, some team picking before the Brewers would take him.

[colbyjack]

Colby, what's your take on Matt Harvey? Could he be a guy, similar to Kentrail Davis last year, that Seid snags despite his falling stock? I know he is rising slightly since the year started, so it's not quite the same situation. His stuff is pretty unquestioned at this point I would think (i.e. it's pretty great).

 

I'm not a huge fan of Harvey's delivery, an area that has drawn concern from scouts during his college career. He has cleaned some things up this spring, but considering the Brewers don't have the greatest track record developing pitchers, they certainly should avoid one that has some potential medical red flags. Otherwise, it's hard not to like his stuff, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a power closer down the road.

 

I've been hearing the Stetson Allie buzz too. I find it incredibly hard to believe anyone can hit low 90's with a slider. So Colby, should Allie be a SP or a hitter at the next level? Does he have a track record for success?

 

He should definitely be a pitcher at the next level. He has very good power potential at the plate as well, but he can legitimately hit 98-99, and as noted, can dial it up with his slider as well. He's gaining more confidence that he'll be able to stick as a starter, but I'm still a little skeptical. I'll admit that I haven't seen him pitch this spring, or even talked to anyone directly about him, but the times that I have he just struck me as a more or nothing type of player. While his value would be greater as a starter, he could be light's out as a closer knowing that he doesn't have to pace himself.

 

Have you heard anything about the Brewers being linked to Sale?

 

I haven't, but I haven't heard anyone specifically linked to the Brewers. A lot of speculation, as the Brewers are one of the quieter teams out there.

 

There's always a chance that he drops to 14. I didn't think Tanner Scheppers would fall either, but as you noted, there are some concerns about Sale's mechanics, not to mention his body since he's as rail thin as they come. But, he's leading the nation in strikeouts, and also throws a pretty good slider in addition to his fastball-changeup. I wouldn't have thought that he would fall a couple of weeks ago, but it does look like some hitters (Castellanos & Choice) could be drafted somewhere before the Brewers pick, meaning someone else has to fall.

[sfl2hnq17]

i still say alex wimmers, geez i hope he falls. he is not a one year wonder like arnett (which i did support that draft pick and i still do)

[TheCrew07]

I'm pretty high on HS 3B Nick Castellanos

That's who Mayo has the Brewers taking in his latest mock draft.

 

EDIT: Fixed link.

[Cracked Bat Collector]

I'm pretty high on HS 3B Nick Castellanos

That's who Mayo has the Brewers taking in his latest mock draft.

Could you repaste a link to that latest Mayo mock draft? When I click your blue link it just takes me to a page quoting your message to reply to it. Thanks.

[TheCrew07]

One guy I'd like to see later would be Cameron Bedrosian, the Brewers have been big on bloodline picks in the past.